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Map courtesy Wikipedia's 2023 Israel-Hamas War website.
I publish on subs, other naval, nuclear weapons & broad political issues. Aussie sub changes are slow: talk rather than actual new subs. The 1st Collins LOTE (ending 2029) may mainly concern the US Combat System. Trump may decide to cancel the AUKUS Virginia offer due to USN advice it needs all operational SSNs through to the 2040s. My colleagues Shawn C, Gessler & Ghalib Kabir are welcome to publish while I grieve a death in the family. Pete.
Shawn Chung has provided the following acute assessment:
With a new, non-military government in power in Thailand, we now get the inevitable news that another Thai military white elephant project has been suspended.. not cancelled, suspended.
As I wrote about the Chinese S26T submarine deal before, it has a number of issues - political (buying three submarines during the COVID pandemic was not what the Thai people wanted), as well as the MTU diesel engine fiasco - how this was written into the contract actually give the Thai's a legal out, thought its not known what exactly went in the G2G contract.
If the S26T deal was completed, the Royal Thai Navy (RTN) would have acquired a single 2,600 ton AIP submarine for approximately $390 million, which doesn't sound like a bad deal, but the systems and weapons were never openly discussed. For a general comparison, Pakistan's deal for the similar Hangor-class is estimated at $4-5 billion for 8 vessels, between $500 to $625 million per boat.
According to the reports, Thailand will instead seek
to purchase an anti-submarine frigate from China, which would add about $60
million more to the project cost. No specific frigate type was mentioned,
though the Type
054A (Jiangkai II) has just ended its production run, with the
final two (from an order of four) just delivered to
Pakistan.
Thailand intends to revisit the S26T project at a later date, but there's no news on what will become of the first S26T - which is estimated to complete construction in 2025. There are a number of possibilities, including the hull sitting pier side for a number of years until the Thais reactivate the project. But the boat could be absorbed into the Chinese navy or sold the Pakistan navy - though there may be Thai-specific design quirks, like an enlarged captain's quarters, that may have need to be altered.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pete Comment - Wrong Subs Anyway
Flashback to this 2015 SubMatts article and it seems the US1.1 Billion deal for Thailand to buy 3 x S26Ts was more about Thai inter-service politics, payoffs and appeasing China, than logic. When the Thai Army staged a successful coup in May 2014 largesse needed to flow to the Army's junior partner, the Navy. This came in several forms including permitting a big ticket purchase of submarines (for which officials and officers receive "commissions"). China, an important trading partner and military threat to Thailand, offered 3 subs at a very low price (by the high cost standards of subs).
The major operating environments for Thai submarines, the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea, are simply too
shallow for the large 2,600 tonne S26T subs that China is offering. In the map above Thailand's surrounding sea depths severely limit operations for large subs. The lightest blue (almost white) for the seas/oceans on the
map indicate sea depths of less than 200 meters around Thailand's whole
coastline. This is for Thailand's west coast (Andaman Sea) and especially east
coast (Gulf of Thailand - out to hundreds of kilometers). Wiki indicates the Gulf of Thailand has an average depth of 58m, with its maximum depth being only
85m.
Thailand should be considering submarines of 500 tons or less. Small subs can operate more safely than large subs in shallow seas - less chance of colliding with the seafloor. Small subs are also harder to see in shallow water and have smaller operating costs than large subs. Three evolved submarines of displacements between South Korea's 200 tonne Dolgorae-class and Germany's 500 tonne Type 207s could operate much more discretely and cheaply in Thailand's shallow seas.
1. China’s economic growth has slowed down in part due to a
harsher, longer Covid shutdown. China also has a demographic crisis, partly a legacy of the now curtailed One Child Policy, with too many
elderly people compared to too few people of working age. China’s population
(over 1.4 Billion people) is too large for new workers coming into China to make
a difference. In any case China does not want other people particularly not Muslim people from western China increasing proportionately against the current 92% of Han Chinese.
Australia in contrast has a small enough population (26.8 million)
people for immigration of new young Australians to make a difference. Since the white Australia policy was abolished 50 years ago we don’t have major concerns over the racial mix of immigrants. In proof of that after immigrants from England the 2 largests sources of immigrants into Australia today are India and Mainland China.
What do ya think?
2. China is producing more vehicles overall than the US, Japan, India and South Korea combined. China is producing more Electric Vehicles (including Teslas) than the rest of the world combined. Chinese cars used to have inefficient engines and be of poor quality, but now are high quality at cheaper prices. All MGs, new London Taxis and many Mercedes, Volvos (China owns Volvo and Lotus), Audis and BMWs are made in China. India's owns redoubtable Land Rover and may be able to revive the long ailing Jaguar. What do you think?
3. In an attempt to wedge the ruling Labor Party and the urban trendy Greens Dutton is creating mischief in advocating nuclear energy. In the years Dutton was a Coalition minister the Coalition never advocated nuclear generated electricity. In his No campaign
against renewables he is advocating Small Modular (nuclear) Reactors (SMRs) for
electricity. Australia seems on track to rely 95% on renewables for power
(wind, solar, batteries and hydro). So SMRs might only be needed for 5%
capacity. SMRs are undeveloped technically and there are no commercial ones.
Federal laws ban power reactors. Public acceptance? Politicians are always nervous in suggesting reactors be built in their electorates - so they never do. Existing power lines? Delays? No nuclear waste dumps in Australia. Any thoughts?
4. Humanitarian Disaster in Gaza and Israel. Even if Hamas started it is true...is Gaza turning into a 300 people a day death camp? Dirty water borne diseases Cholera and Dysentery may become the biggest killers as the people of Gaza (being denied fresh water) are forced to drink dirty stagnant water.
5. Oscar Wilde quotes that are True or False?
“We are all in the gutter, but some of us are
looking at the stars.”
“Experience is simply the name we give our mistakes.”
“One should always be in love. That is the
reason one should never marry.
“Work is the curse of the drinking classes.”
"I am not young enough to know everything."
"To
live is the rarest thing in the world. Most people exist, that is all."
"Everything in moderation, including
moderation."
“Seriousness is the only refuge of the shallow.”
“It is the spectator, and not life, that art
really mirrors.”
“There is nothing so difficult to marry as a large nose.”
“The well bred contradict other people. The wise contradict themselves.”
It seems the US is engaged in overt and secret (back channel) string-pulling in an attempt to delay Israel’s invasion of Gaza.
Benefitting Israel are the 2 USS Ford and USS Eisenhower carrier strike groups in the Mediterranean (with aircraft, anti-missile missiles, and 2,000 embarked Marines). These carrier groups are serving as a warning to forces in Iran (eg. Iran’s strategic Missile forces) and in Syria and Lebanon, not to attack Israel.
The carrier groups also serve to dissuade Israel from any attempt to conflate the war with Hamas into a reason to bomb Iran. Israel, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, has wished to bomb (or use long range missiles against) Iran's nuclear weapons capable infrastructure for decades.
The Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Carney (DDG-64) is an escort in the USS Gerald
R. Forde carrier group - a group now serving in the eastern Mediterranean. Carney appears to have been detached south through the
Suez Canal and into the Red Sea to meet any threats.
On October 19 October 2023 Carney reportedly shot down 4
cruise missiles and 15 drones over a period of 9 hours.[16].
These were believed to have been fired by Houthi militants (in this case working as proxies for Iran) in Yemen. Although the targets
were uncertain, the missiles and drones were shot down because they were headed
north along the Red Sea in the direction of Israel amid rising
tensions in the region during the Israel–Hamas war.[15]
Low-key US Special Forces and others in Syria are disrupting the supply of arms from Iran travelling to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Arms, including missiles, that might be used against Israel. US forces in Syria may be armed with Patriot missiles "for their own protection" not to mention handy against large Iranian and Syrian missiles.
The US is engineering the Gaza to Israel hostage releases in return for the US delaying the Israeli invasion and effectively paying for the truck convoys entering Gaza from Egypt.
Also the US has asked Israel to return to the established practice of warning Gaza building owners to evacuate 10 minutes before the buildings are bombed by Israeli aircraft. In return Hamas has promised not to kill hostages.
The move would further solidify Beijing’s influence in the Indian Ocean and place Chinese submarines closer to UK and US military assets in Chagos, Diego Garcia and the Seychelles, not to mention India itself.
It follows victory by China-leaning Mohamed Muizzu, who campaigned on a platform of “India out “ to beat incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in general elections held a fortnight ago
The results mark a return of a pro-China stance held by the Maldives before Solih came to power in 2018.
They are also a blow to New Delhi which had come to regard the islands as part of its sphere of influence.
[For some reason the author has decided to add this totally unrelated issue] The news comes as the head MI5 warned China was trying to steal nuclear technology from the UK and attempt to scupper the crucial nuclear submarine deal struck between Britain, the US and Australia.
Muizzu has already publicly pledged to expel a force of around 75 Indian soldiers ostensibly based on the islands to maintain and operate two rescue helicopters and a maritime surveillance plane donated by New Delhi.
The rescue assets have been used to save 523 lives in more than 500 medical evacuations over the past five years.
While it is unlikely that ties with India will be completely severed, Muizzu will attempt to consolidate economic ties with Beijing.
While no mention has yet been made of allowing a Chinese military footprint, senior government and intelligence sources in the islands are concerned that China will use the excuse of protecting vital energy routes to call for it.
“We feel it is only a matter of time for Beijing to play this card, and we are not sure President Muizzu will be inclined to resist it,:” said one senior source in Maldives capital Male.
It is not the first time the threat of a Chinese military base has surfaced in the Maldives.
[Location of a Chinese tourist deveopment] In 2020 satellite images showed evidence of mass construction on the island of Feydhoo Finolhu, which had been leased by China until 2026 [or for 50 years until 2066 ] for $4m by pro-China president Abdulla Yameen four years previously,
[However there is an argument that tiny Feydhoo Finolhu is a Chinese investment Tourist Atoll - with the alleged growth mainly consisting of tourist huts on pontoons over water - see Youtube]
Significantly the island has also been expanded from 38,000 sq. metres to measure 100,000 sq meters in size [about the size of a shopping mall and carpark], in a move which echoed China’s actions on the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
Any Chinese military base would strengthen China’s ability to control maritime freedom of movement in the region and act as a buffer for Taiwan, placing China’s People’s Liberation Army and Navy forces with just 1,000 km of India’s mainland. The distance to Diego Garcia and Chagos is considerably shorter.
Analysts also warn that a Chinese military outpost could be used to dock nuclear submarines in the region or collect hydrological data to track sub-surface operations of India like deployment submarines.
“China’s military ambitions are not yet clear but, given Beijing’s interest in a bigger presence in the Indian Ocean, the prospect of a Chinese military base is a concerning one,’ said Shiza Abbassi, intelligence analyst for South Asia with the Sibylline strategic risk group.
“China has been seeking a way to increase its influence for quite a while.
“It has already established a heavy footprint in Pakistan and influence in Sri Lanka as part of the so-called ‘string of pearls’ effort to undermine India’s influence in South Asia.
She added: “A military base in the Maldives would chime with its broader vision. And because China’s energy supplies pass through the Maldives, it would make sense for Beijing to make the case that its military presence would simply ensure these supplies.
“President Muizzu has left the door very much open for this.”
In Tel Aviv, Sarah Coates (no relation)
for Singapore’s Channel NewsAsia, reports October 12/13, here and below an Israeli ground offensive against Gaza looks “imminent" as Israeli troops continue to mass on the Gaza border. Both sides
are potentially preparing for a very long conflict.
Comment
The incursion might be led by a sudden increase in Israeli air strikes, artillery and MLRS "shelling", "Kamikaze" drone and missile strikes on Hamas positions. Then Israeli Merkava tanks (which can each carry 6 infantry inside) and Namer armoured personnel carriers will pour into Gaza.
It is unknown whether Hamas has laid anti-tank, anti-personnel mines or IEDs near the border.
On October 9, 2023 retortPouch commented along the lines:
I agree with Pete that it's difficult to really figure out the design heritage [of Taiwan's just announced Hai Kun-class aka "Narwhal" (TSS-3s) because the Japanese Uzushio-class onwards and Dutch Zwaardvis-class diesel submarine families are quite explicitly export Barbel-class derived]. They share very similar design features. Taiwan's Hai Lung-class (TSS-2s) are indigenized Zwaardvis class subs, which can provide a design template.
However it is known that Japanese manufacturing technical asst. was provided in the form of very critical welding technology by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI).
As for the TSS-2s’ and
TSS-3s’ usefulness, I suspect they are particularly useful, and not too late, in
contradiction to the PRC’s Global Times article. Taiwan’s subs are/will be indeed inferior in indiscretion ratio to the PRC's Stirling AIP equipped Yuan-class subs.
But the growing presence of an expanding fleet of credible Taiwanese subsurface
platforms provides many options to counter PLA-N maritime action. This concerns
especially Taiwan’s options in the periods of tension prior to war when there
is PRC political threats of blockades, even if not actually executed. During the
buildup to war Taiwan and the PRC may both launch special operations,
electronic intelligence gathering and seabed operations (eg. cutting undersea
telecommunications cables and smart mine laying etc.). This is a set of ops
which Taiwan finds difficult to execute right now. Taiwanese submarine and
seabed operations would complicate PRC planning, and provides exploitable
opportunities to effect large changes in the battle situation.
The fact that the Global Times comes out to mention the undersea war should flag notice.
I am not very confident in
Taiwan's ability to fend off a PLA "takeover" scenario right now.
However, I reckon things
are slowly going on the right track, especially since the end of the Administration
of Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan’s President from 2000 to 2008.
It is hard for me to tell if [Taiwan’s military strengthening, in particular building TSS-3s] is happening fast enough. This is because the CCP, via the PLA, itself has a limited risk appetite, and cannot simply charge headlong into a painful, costly and embarrassing campaign. The balance right now is complex... making it more complex is the subs' job.
Shawn Chung and I have been discussing Vietnam’s gradual drift away from almost total reliance on Russia for weapons. Many old Soviet and Russian weapons arm the Vietnamese army, air force and navy. There appear to be early signs of Vietnam pivoting towards the US for weapons.
Vietnam acquiring weapons
from Russia and maintaining them is becoming more complicated due to: the Ukraine War international
embargo on Russian weapons; possibility of Western sanctions if Vietnam does buy
Russian weapons; shortages of Russian weapon spare parts and ammunition; and, difficulty of Russia repairing Vietnamese weapon systems.
Vietnam will find it hard to keep its Su-30s, bought from Russia, flying for another year... unless Vietnam does deals with India's Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for sustainment. The same goes for Vietnam’s 6 x Kilo submarines, the first of which was launched more than 10 years ago, and while they could use a civilian shipyard for refurbishment (the Vietnamese Navy submarine base looks like it has one drydock for hull scraping), they may also look to India for fleet sustainment. Vietnam has recently acquired 2 x Pohang-class corvettes from South Korea.
Vietnam has also looked for value for money by buying SPYDER medium range SAMs from Israel, but there's a very long way to go.
Vietnam in Southeast Asia uneasily sharing a lot of land border and overlapping sea-space with China (Map courtesy Asia Society).Malaysia operates Su-30s and 8 x F/A-18Ds. Indonesia operates Su-27s, Su-30s and F-16s. This means the US exporting F-16s to Vietnam is unremarkable.
Singapore operates F-16s, F-15s and is acquiring F-35Bs. Indonesia is acquiring 24 of the latest F-15EXs. The US doesn’t look like exporting F-35s to other Southeast Asian nations.
Vietnam had close relations with China during much of the First Indochina War and all of the Second Indochina War. But overall Vietnam is reluctant to buy weapons from China given Vietnam and China fought 22 wars against each other over the last 2,000 years – the last ending in 1991. Vietnam is also in a South China Sea (SCS) dispute with China. Given this SCS dispute, in May 2017 the US delivered 6 x Defiant-class patrol boats to the Vietnam Coast Guard.
So the West is
doing well to provide some support to Vietnam in Vietnam’s friction against
China. Meanwhile the Ukraine-Russia War is providing an opportune time to
reduce Vietnam’s reliance on Russia for weapons.
I
often comment as Pete on the US IntelNews website.
Sometimes comments do not get through - as with IntelNews article NSA, CIA senior officials address artificial intelligence threats and opportunities of Oct 2, 2023.
So, having no contact with any intelligence agency, anywhere, I’ll attempt to comment on that Oct 2 article now.
I assume it likely the NSA utilizes Artificial Intelligence (AI) to develop very large software programs for cyber defensive and cyber offensive purposes.
Defensively software programs, created with AI assistance, might be able to detect, isolate and further react to major cyber-attacks much more quickly than human "cyberwarriors" have been previously able.
Offensively AI could be helping develop and then deploy large programs, of a magnitude or two of lines of code larger than the widely publicized Stuxnet program.
Stuxnet reputedly spread beyond the intentions of its creators. So
there would need to be failsafe software limits preventing partial AI developed cyber programs spreading.
Pete Comment
Australian "Pratt then allegedly shar[ing] the information about submarines" is also a gift to those in the USN and Congress who argue Australia is a potentially weak link in the protect US submarine secrets chain.
Israel's suspected Popeye Turbo nuclear tipped Submarine Lauched Cruise Missile (SLCM) is feeling its age and interceptability. The following details its limitations along with broader comments on Israel's missile landscape.
Israel has the most technologically advanced missile arsenal in the Middle East. Israel has a large domestic arms industrial base and is/has been involved in many foreign joint ventures. This is particularly with the US, India (likely for Popeye Turbo testing in 2002 and definitely in developing the Barak 1 SAM and Barak 8 SAM) and decades ago France, to develop world class missile systems.
Israel domestically produces numerous UAVs, cruise, ballistic and now hypersonic missiles informed by the performance of
missiles and UAVs in the Russia-Ukraine War. Russian cruise and ballistic
missiles are proving more easily shot down than hypersonic missiles.
Israel might be assuming that its subsonic or supersonic Popeye Turbo SLCMs may well be shot down by Israel’s Muslim neighbors (with Iran being the top target). This is especially if the Popeye Turbo’s range hasn’t improved beyond 1,500km with a 200kg warhead of 200 kiloton yield [with likely a boosted weapon]. 1,800km with a 100kg warhead might be more practical.
A range of 1,800km still means Israel’s Dolphin 1 and 2 class submarines are limited to a
relatively small predictable launch area west of their Haifa Naval Base if
their target is Tehran. The range limitations of the Popeye Turbos would make for fairly direct route, improving the chances that Iran’s S-300 SAMs or, in future, S-400 SAMs might intercept them.
Modern Turkish,
Egyptian and Russian submarines might also make life difficult for Israeli Dolphins that occupy predictable launch areas.
Alternate launch
areas in the:
- Red Sea involve
the need for Dolphin SSBs to surface (or be easily detected) travelling through the Suez Canal, or
- Arabian Sea involve Dolphin SSBs covering a huge multiple-refuel distance around the southern tip of Africa.
Hence Israel needs a longer range and preferably faster submarine launched missile that doesn't have the predictable trajectory of a ballistic missile. Israel may be developing a, what I call, Submarine Launched Hypersonic Missile (with a brand new acronym "SLHM"). A faster missile, with a heavier warhead travelling in dense atmosphere, while fighting gravity, will almost inevitably be heavier and taller than the Popeye Turbo.
This may be a variant of the Arrow family of long range anti-ballistic hypersonic missiles. The constantly improving Arrow Program has been an Israeli-US joint venture since 1986. It is considered one of the most advanced missile defense programs currently in existence [14][15] A long range missile built for defensive purposes can always be of offensive value.
More on Monday on the Arrow 3 and 4.
Under AUKUS Pillar
2
“The AUKUS
partners will work together to accelerate development of advanced hypersonic
and counter-hypersonic capabilities.” [Official AUKUS Fact Sheet, April 5, 2022]. Also see Wiki.
Australia and
the US have been cooperating on the development of hypersonic missiles since
2020 after signing an agreement to "flight test full-size prototype
hypersonic cruise missiles" under the [Boeing and Lockheed Martin preliminary
designed Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research Experiment (SCIFiRE). contract] [97][98][99]
Lockheed Martin Awarded $1.1 Billion Initial Contract To Provide Nation's First Sea-Based Hypersonic [Conventional Prompt] Strike Capability: February 17, 2023 … [Conventional Prompt Strike] CPS shares a common [integrated support system] AUR with the Army LRHW and can be launched from multiple platforms including surface ships, submarines, and land-based mobile launchers.
+++++++++++++++++
“Leading
Hypersonic Solutions"
"Lockheed Martin
is partnering with DARPA, the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Army, and the U.S. Navy
to transition hypersonic concepts to operational reality. Discover why hypersonics
are a key to battlefield supremacy and an essential element in national
defense."
[In the Youtube, uploaded by LM in 2022, here and above]
"Lockheed Martin’s Chief Technology Officer and VP Steve Walker and VP, Advanced Program Development, Space Eric Scherff explain the advantages of hypersonic systems and Lockheed Martin's expertise in scaling complex weapon systems and leadership in hypersonics.”
++++++++++++++++++
Tomorrow we'll
take a look at the US (Boeing)-Israeli Arrow 3 Hypersonic missile. "The
missile's reported flight range is up to 2,400 km" and
"Another advantage mentioned was the ability to launch the Arrow 3 from advanced missile boats."
In Australia's future SSN-AUKUS case these UK designed SSGNs are
likely to feature VLS and beams larger than the current Astutes' 11.3m. These
would be more than adequate to accommodate a missile the 9.86m size of the old Polaris
A3 MIRVed ballistic missile. These A3s had a range of 4,600km - more than adequate to
hit Beijing from a launch point east of the Japanese home islands.