March 31, 2021

India's future 6 SSNs over 3rd Carrier: Internal Leverage.

A Hindustan Times report of March 24, 2021 indicated the Indian Navy had informed the Modi government that building six SSNs took priority over building a third aircraft carrier, (known as INS Vishal). 

My comment/question was the Indian Navy usually asks its political masters (especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi ) whether the Navy can radically alter its shipbuilding strategy/plan. I didn’t believe the Navy could get away with so boldly telling Parliament what the Navy was going to do. This is because Parliament supplies the ship/sub building money and politicians have a “pork barrel” tendency to build subs/ships in their own state/electorate for political gain.

On March 27, 2021 Gessler replied, with excellent detail and links, along the lines:

The Indian government created the post of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) on 24 December 2019. Since then the first (only) CDS, four star General Bipin Rawat (photo above - a former Chief of Army Staff) has been pushing the Navy to prioritize its purchases. Only a few months after taking office, CDS Rawat has pushed for submarines as opposed to aircraft carriers. As an illustration see this article of February 17, 2020 Approval for third aircraft carrier may not comesoon, indicates CDS Rawat


The Arihant class and INS Chakra are current. Third one down is a possible shape and comparative size of a future Indian attack submarine (SSN) below that is the possible shape of a future, larger Indian SSBN class (known as S5). (Artwork and captions courtesy
H I Sutton's, Forbes article of Feb 23, 2020).
---   

The CDS has been supporting the build of 6 SSNs in particular. See this article, which says in summary: At CDS Rawat’s first media interaction, of Feb 2020, he asked the Navy to re-evaluate priorities and hinted that if it pushed for the third aircraft carrier it would have to forgo the 6 SSNs. 

CDS Rawat's call to prioritize 6 SSNs met resistance from the Chief of Naval Staff on down - see Feb 21, 2020’s Indian Navy will push ahead with plan for 3rd aircraft carrier despite CDS’ reservations

This internal defence force conversation went on for little over a year, from Feb 2020 to Mar 2021. In the civilian public domain, the discussion of SSNs vs 3rd Carrier continued. Several retired Admirals and other senior Navy officers published opinion pieces. Some even accusing CDS Rawat of “Land-Centrism”. Although in reality there's nothing land-centric about a fleet of SSNs. While some rejected the accusation, some even supported a Land-centrism case.

Meanwhile, the internal conversation finally culminated in the Combined Commanders Conference in early March 2021...where the Navy finally made the decision to abide by the CDS' call for SSN prioritization.

CDS Rawat has had solid political support. He served as Chief of Staff of the Indian Army from 2016-2019. He was then promoted to be India's first CDS, a position who's creation was recommended by several Defense Committees for almost two decades. CDS Rawat, though still of 4-star rank, became 'First Among Equals', over the three Service Chiefs (Army, Navy and Air Force). His promotion to CDS naturally occurred with the support of Modi and that of National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval. The NSA was reorganized into a very powerful Cabinet-level position in 2019.

All this means is that the Navy informing Parliament (in March 2021) that the Navy would be prioritizing the SSN program over the 3rd Carrier, was no surprise to Modi. The Navy was simply reminding the Indian government that this so-called “internal defence force decision” was what CDS Rawat had publically advocated in Feb 2020 and SSN prioritization already had the full support of the Modi government. 

In summary, the national security strategy/plan devised by the Modi government, NSA and CDS, that prioritizes SSNs over another carrier, has now overcome the Navy’s internal resistance to the strategy.

March 30, 2021

Australian Ministerial Reshuffle: Subs, Defence, Women

On March 29, 2021 Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison felt compelled to reshuffle his Ministry

Over the last month the Morrison Liberal-National Coalition government has declined from being mainly seen as an effective coordinator and financial responder to the Covid Crisis. Now it is seen as a symptom of alleged "rape" and sundry sexual deviancy by senior government males imposing themselves on junior females at Federal and State political levels.

Morrison was forced to act yesterday. His method is increasing the number of women in the Ministry. You will see many women in the official March 29, 2021 Ministry List.

Aside from humanitarianism Morrison cares because a Federal Election must be held any Saturday from "Saturday 7 August 2021" up until "Saturday 21 May 2022" inclusive. There being no fixed (eg. 4 year) Parliamentary terms in Australia's Federal level system. In Australia the optimal time for the Government to hold an election is seen as the Southern Hemisphere Spring (September - November) when people's happiness at  improvements in the weather is assumed to carry over to voting for the incumbent government. 

Significantly Morrison is clinging to Government by only a one-seat majority in the Federal House of Representatives. The next Federal Election will therefore be a close run, unpredictable, thing. The Labor Opposition (see red line on graph) is slightly ahead of the Morrison Coalition Government on a "two-party-preferred" basis.

So Morrison's reshuffle yesterday is aimed at resolving the "women problem" in likely preparation for an Australian Spring Election. Also by Spring enough Australians will have been Covid Vaccinated to make them feel better about their health, life and hence the incumbent Morrison Government.  

The main impact of this reshuffle on Australian defence matters can potentially come from the change in Defence Minister:

from Senator (for Western Australia) Linda Reynolds, suspected of effectively minimising an alleged rape of a staffer. Reynolds has spent 30 years, as part-time military, thus knowing military technology and policies well, though being a low profile Cabinet Minister.

to Peter Dutton MP as Defence Minister. His main defence related experience is Minister for Immigration and Border Protection. That portfolio involves much liaison with Defence, surveillance aircraft and patrol boats, with armed boarding parties, boarding refugee/people and drug smuggling boats. Dutton was not moved into a central direct interface with voters ministry because he has been and still is Morrison's main rival for Liberal Party Leader, hence the Prime Minister position. Dutton represents the Queensland seat/electorate of Dickson which may attract more defence business.

Dutton is unlikely to want to change the Government's ongoing policy of sticking with Naval Group (main contractor) and Lockheed Martin (combat system integrator) for Australia's Future Attack-class submarine program. As Dutton does not come from Reynolds' state of Western Australia Reynolds scheme to divert more current Collin's class submarine maintenance work to Western Australia may recede as a plan.

However, Melissa Price MP for Western Australia, remains the more junior Minister for Defence Industry.   

The highly ambitious, Andrew Hastie MP, remains Assistant Minister for Defence. He spent 14 years as a soldier and was Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on Intelligence and Security for just over 3 years, So Hastie has a good grounding to move into more senior defence ministerial grades. 

Whether the reshuffle has cured Morrison's "women problem" remains to be seen. It is unlikely that Morrison, or his rival, Dutton will significantly alter Australian defence/submarine projects and policies. Many workers/voters/businesses/politicians need to feel confident that federal money for defence funding in their area/electorates will be ongoing. There is especially with an Election approaching (September 2021 to May 2022).

Pete

March 27, 2021

Russia pushes Northern Sea Route after Suez Canal Blockage

Reported by Agency France Press via France24 on March 26, 2021 

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210326-russia-pushes-arctic-ambitions-after-suez-jam

Moscow (AFP) Russia has seized on the Suez Canal blockage to promote its northern shipping route as a reliable alternative, part of a broader push by Moscow to develop the Arctic and capitalise on climate change.

President Vladimir Putin has made Russia's Arctic region a strategic priority and ordered investment in military infrastructure and mineral extraction.

The development of the Northern Sea Route is closely linked to that push and Moscow has channelled large sums into a fleet of icebreakers and ice-class tankers.

Russia redoubled efforts to promote the Arctic route after a giant Japanese-owned tanker became wedged this week in the narrow Suez channel barring some 200 ships passage.

A senior Russian diplomat said Friday that the jam underscored the importance of developing the Arctic route.

...The Northern Sea Route is one of several Arctic shipping channels and lies within Russia's exclusive economic zone.

Russia has invested heavily to develop the route, which allows ships to cut the journey to Asian ports by 15 days compared with using the Suez Canal.

Transit of the eastern Arctic usually ends in November but Russia hopes climate change means the commercial benefit of the route will increase.

Moscow is planning to use the route to export oil and gas to overseas markets while companies including Russia's biggest LNG producer Novatek already navigate the northern route.

In August 2017, the first vessel travelled along the Northern Sea Route without the use of ice breakers.

...The Japanese-owned, Panama-flagged MV Ever Given became stuck in the Suez Canal during a sandstorm, blocking the waterway that connects the Mediterranean with the Red Sea and which handles more than 10 percent of global maritime trade. MV Ever Given has now been re-floated (as at March 29, 2021) - suggesting shipping through Suez Canal is beginning to flow SLOWLY back to normal, over next few weeks.

Tugboats and dredgers scrambled [March 26, 2021] to free the giant container for a fourth day, forcing companies to re-route services from the vital shipping lane around Africa.

Russia's nuclear agency, which is the Arctic passage's official infrastructure operator, mockingly offered its northern route as an alternative Thursday, saying icebreakers would be sent to the rescue if vessels get stuck.

Nuclear agency Rosatom jokingly said the Arctic passage provides "more space to draw peculiar pictures using your giant ships," referring to shipping trackers which showed that the Ever Given traced the outline of a giant penis before getting stuck.

...Putin on Friday praised Russian navy’s Arctic exercises that launched last week, saying the troops had proven their ability to operate even "in harsh northern environments".

As part of the drill, three nuclear-powered submarines broke the ice and surfaced simultaneously while a nuclear submarine also fired a torpedo from beneath the ice.

SEE WHOLE AGENCY FRANCE PRESS ARTICLE

March 26, 2021

Japan's Lithium Battery Submarines Becoming Operational

Derek Woolner and David Glynne Jones have kindly provided information that Lithium-ion Battery (LIB) submarines are now becoming operational. This is with the commissioning of Japan's Soryu-class JS Oryu on 5 March 2020 and JS Toryu 24 March 2021. Derek and David have also put together new details of Japan’s Taigei-class LIB subs. Pete has  summarised the info Derek and David have sent. 

NOTE: 

1. All references to subs below apply to naval subs of many 100s of tons (ie. not tourist or scientific minisubs or SEAL/diver delivery vehicles).

2. Info below without [...] brackets is by Derek and David from published sources. The parts in [...] brackets are by Pete or expert on Japanese submarines "Anonymous". 

3. Japan's efforts are the first of three instalments on LIBs Becoming Operational. 

After more than 100 years of lead-acid battery (LAB) use LIBs for submarine have been under development since the early 2000s. This has occurred at uneven rates between countries/companies with Japan at the forefront. LIB submarines are now becoming operational and it is expected that by the early 2030s more than 30 LIB subs could be operating in the Indo-Pacific. It is also expected that many autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) (often synonymous with unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs)) will use LIBs in the Indo-Pacific.

First-generation LIB subs will typically have submerged patrol endurance about twice that of LAB subs and around 3 times the submerged high speed endurance.

LIB tech is evolving rapidly and submarine planners expect that LIB capacities could double by 2030. This would provide submerged patrol endurance 4 times that of LAB subs and  around 5-6 times the submerged high speed endurance.

The substantial increases in stored energy provided by LIBs will also enable future subs to support more advanced sensor, combat and autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) systems.

The following is public info on the current status of development and adoption of advanced battery systems for subs.

JAPAN’s LIB-EQUIPPED SUBS

Soryu [Mark 2]-class

The two final Soryu-class subs [the Soryu Mark 2s] have LIBs and are now operational. They are.

- JS Oryucommissioned on 5 March 2020, the world’s first operational LIB sub. All previous Soryus used LABs and Stirling air independent propulsion (AIP). Oryu is serving in the Japanese Navy’s Submarine Flotilla 1, at Kure naval base.  

- JS Toryu was commissioned on 24 March 2021.

[1.  To see the incremental sequence of the subs, by many measures, see Pete and Anonymous'  "SORYU-TAIGEI TABLE" by scrolling down.

2.  Anonymous advised March 27, 2021 that Considering buoyancy and space of subs, 27SS (Oryu) and 28SS (Toryu) do not have the volume to fit 960 LIBs. The LIB capacity of 29SS (Taigei) is larger. Based on various data (purchase price and the version of Japan’s SLH LIB for submarine, space and weight of submarine, magnetic balance, etc.), the number of batteries is estimated as follows:
-  For the Soryu Mark 1s (16SS-26SS): AIP and 480 LABs
-  For the Soryu Mark 2s (27SS-28SS): 640 LIBs (SLH type)
- 1st and 2nd Taigeis (29SS-01SS): 672LIBs (SLH type)
- 3rd Taigei onwards (02SS): 672LIBs (Improved SLH type) ]

Taigei-class

JS Taigei (first of class) was launched on 14 October 2020 and is scheduled to be commissioned in March 2022. While similar in general design to the Soryus class, the Taigei class subs will have more advanced systems [eg. combat systems and snorkel] and LIB capacity may be around 30% larger than the Oryu-Toryu Soryus. After commissioning, JS Taigei will be converted into a test submarine, to provide a dedicated operational and platform for accelerated research and development. [It will also aid in crew training and  familiarisation.]

Japan also has an unnamed Taigei-class sub (SS-514) [see Table below] being built. It was laid down on 25 January 2019, scheduled to be launched 2021 and commissioned in March 2023.

[Japan continues its tradition of building around 10 subs of each class.] So 10 Taigei-class LIB subs are planned (starting with JS Taigei and SS-514) with the 10th of class scheduled for commissioning in 2031. See here and here.

Derek Woolner is co-author of the classic (2008) [on Pete's bookshelf!] and still very relevant The Collins Class SubmarineStory: Steel, Spies and Spin . He is a previous Director of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Group in the Parliamentary Research Service.

David Glynne Jones is an independent advocate for the adoption of renewable energy technology across all sectors of the Australian economy. He is currently assessing the implications of emerging advanced battery technology for electrification of the Australian transport sector.

Their blog-website is Woolner and Jones.

Pete, Submarine Sherlock-like gentleman amateur, dabbles. Once in gov, many moons ago, kemosabes.
______________________________

SORYU-TAIGEI TABLE 
as at March 26, 2021. 

(also some old, but still operational, Oyashio-class details).

SS
No.
Diesel Type
Motor
Build No
Name
Pennant
No.
MoF approved amount ¥
Billions FY
LABs, LIBs, AIP
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Commi
ssioned
Built
By
5SS Oyashio
8105 Oyashio
SS-590/ TS3608
¥52.2B FY1993
2 x 12V25/25S 
diesels for all
Oyashio class
(each diesel
2,000kW)
LABs only
 Jan 1994
Oct 1996
Mar 1998
 KHI
6SS-15SS
Oyashios 
10 subs
SMC-7?
8106
-8115
various
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 15SS Feb
2004
15SS
Nov
2006
15SS
Mar 2008
 MHI
&
KHI
16SS
Dragon
class  Mk I
8116
SS-501
¥60B FY2004 all Mk.1 LAB+AIP Soryus have 2 x Kawasaki 
4,240kW)
+ 4 AIP
SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
MHI
17SS
8117
Unryū
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
18SS
8118
Hakuryū
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
19SS
8119
Kenryū
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
20SS
8120
Zuiryū
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
21SS LIBs Concept
Research
Project
No 21SS built. It was an 8 year research project on LIBs. 1st LIBs sub launched was 27SS in 2018.
   


22SS
8121
Kokuryū
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
23SS
8122
Jinryu
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
7 Mar 2016
MHI
24SS
8123
Sekiryū
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
KHI
25SS
8124
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
22 Oct 2013
12 Oct   2016
MHI
26SS
8125
SS-510
¥51.7B FY2014
last SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
2014
6 Nov 2017
KHI
27SS a Soryu
"Mk II" as it
has LIBs. 1st
Soryu Mk II 
8126
Oryū
11th
Soryu
SS-511
¥64.4B FY2015 
with 2 12V25/25SB diesels (totaling 4,240kW) 
SMC-8B motor
Soryu Mk IIs may have twice as many batteries as Mk Is, ie 960 LIB-arrays in Mk IIs, other improvements
LIBs only
(SLH type)
SLH is a
classified
technology
formula
unknown
made by
GS Yuasa

Nov
2015
4 Oct
2018
2020
MHI
28SS Soryu
Mk II, 12th &
final Soryu
8127
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
"2,900t" surfaced
12V25/25SB diesels
SLH
LIBs
Jan 2017
KHI
29SS
1st
3,000 tonne
(surfaced)
8128
Taigei
SS-513
¥76B FY2017 (Heisei 29)
Higher ¥76budget 
may be due to 1st of class changes & new LIBs layout maybe
30% larger. 2 x
12V25/25SB
diesels or variants
(totaling
SLH
LIBs
maybe
960
month?in 
2017

14 Oct
2020
 
Mar 2022
MHI

30SS 
2nd Taigei Class 
8129?
SS-514
SLH
LIBs
25 Jan
2019
Oct or
Nov
2021?
Mar
2023?
KHI?
01SS 
3rd
Taigei Class

SS-515
SLH
LIBs
maybe
960+
2019?
2021?
2023?
MHI?
02SS 
4th
Taigei Class 
8130?
SS-516
¥B? FY2020 (Reiwa 02)
Improved SLH LIBS. New
2 x 12V25/31S
diesels (totaling
Impro
ved SLH
LIBs
2020?
2022?
2024?

03SS
8131?
¥B? FY2021
LIBs 
2021?
2023?
2025?
04SS
8132?
¥B? FY2022
LIBs
2022?
2024?
2026?
05SS 
8133?
¥B? FY2023
LIBs
2023?
2025?
2027?

06SS
8134?

¥B? FY2024
LIBs 
2024?
2026?
2028?
07SS 
8135?

¥B? FY2025
LIBs
2025?
2027?
2029?

08SS 
8136?
¥B? FY2026

LIBs
2026?
2028?2030?
Key to Table: Table information exclusively provided to Submarine MattersLABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP = air independent propulsion, LIB= Lithium-ion Batteries. 
¥***B
 = Billion Yen. MHI = Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, KHI = Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries. 
---

Table by Anonymous and Pete