A great article in the Lowy Institute's theinterpreter by HENRY STOREY published March 3, 2021:
"Cracks beginning to appear in the Russia-India relationship."
"But Washington’s interests might actually be served by New
Delhi and Moscow muddling through."
14 comments:
honestly, this 'cracks' beginning appear trope is getting tiresome.
It is unbelievable a person is paid to write such obvious tripe at a place like Lowy.
For all the modi-trump hugs and all that jazz, Modi and amongst all of the Indian elite, the opinion about the US is unanimous - 'untrustworthy' is the verdict all will give.
(the only place India's US tilt and modi 'sell-out' sells is in the 'wet dream' wishes of pseudoliberal self-appointed guardians of 'tolerance and "secularism"', who are thought of similar to India's mangy street mongrels - an unfortunate nuisance to be tolerated)
If there were 'actual cracks' to the extent this Henry dude claims,
1. One more SSN lease and help for maintaining existing SSN and SSBNs won't be happening
2. 3 dozen Mig-29s + Su-30 MKIs won't be getting sold
3. Continued range extension, joint development of ALCM,SLCM version Brahmos wouldnt occur
4. S-400 deliveries will not be getting accelerated
5. Admiral Grigorovich class frigates will not be getting sold
plus all the other ammunition and arms sales and VVER n-reactor sales will not be occuring.
issues do exist as an inevitable consequence of an increasingly multi-polar set-up. Russia also opportunistically overcharged India while supplying 'export versions' of SSK sonars or R-77 AAMs (did not work in Feb 2019 when needed). So India replaces avionics etc with French and Israeli suites where possible while using the Russian base hardware...
The bottomline remains the same, when it really mattered Russia has actually bailed India out of many tight corners and been a decent ally. This will never be true of an whimsical, untrustworthy US in a 1000 years. India's elite get it and in the true Indian style they throw a grand gala (or 'Tamasha') for trump etc...but they never forget realities.
Biden, fortunately gets that part...giving India that 'space' to 'maneuver geopolitically'.
PS: most 'journos' these days are akin to retarded six year olds trying to describe a calculus lesson written on a high school blackboard...no wonder such balderdash comes out.
Hi GhalibKabir
My initial thoughts being.
From an Australian perspective I thought the article was rather good.
In the article India was/is one of the protagonists - fouthrightly reflected in your views.
The end of that ogre Trump, a fully paid up Agent of Influence, of ex-KGB Case Officer Putin,
is leading to realistic and less bamboozled US views of Mother Russia. ie. history is in flux on change to a new, improved, POTUS.
I shall look further, on the morrow, good friend.
Pete
Their are several serious problems with this article.
If US/westerners want India to replace Russia. Then they need to do simple things, as gesture of good faith, allow india to access old generation reactors of US SSGN/SSBN.
Allow India to access several critical technologies.
But on one hand RAND release report that we should block hypersonic tech to india, and on other expecting India to break her alliance with Russia.
Americans are litterally high on good weed, they seriously have no idea on the level of cooperation exist between two countries. The latest thing, diplomacy happened through TASS over Ladakh issue.
Why indian defence minister & FM visited Russia for back channel, instead of US?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/theprint.in/opinion/the-ultimate-goal-of-rajnath-singh-jaishankars-russia-visit-move-moscow-away-from-beijing/500147/%3famp
And still cooperation is on-going, like in SSN, BMD. And as simple as SFDR. Americans are litterally day dreaming, if they think India can be coerced to go into anti russia lobby via CAATSA. This article is actually proof of that what they want.
Hi GhalibKabir
your@Mar 4, 2021, 8:02:00 PM
After rereading the article https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/cracks-beginning-appear-russia-india-relationship I would have thought you might actually agree with the author's closing sentiments, including:
"Rather than driving the wedge further, the optimal response from Washington would actually give New Delhi a degree of manoeuvrability. In particular, by threatening New Delhi with CAATSA sanctions, the US is effectively asking New Delhi to make an unpalatable choice between it and one of its most established security partners.
... Undue pressure on India to pick a side may well also complicate New Delhi’s calculus for deepening its engagement with the Quad, particularly after New Delhi and Beijing appeared to de-escalate tensions through the partial withdrawal of troops in disputed border areas.
Nor is a strong Russia-India relationship necessarily contrary to US interests, not least because it helps reduce Russia’s reliance on China.
...While not everything about the India-Russia relationship is compatible with US interests, in dealing with the China challenge, Washington may realise that a functional Russia-India relationship isn’t necessarily such a bad thing."
So (like I) it would appear the author has no problems with India buying the weapon systems you list.
Close Regards
Pete
Hi Arpit Kanodia [your Mar 5, 2021, 5:55:00 PM]
Nothing like Henry Storey’s article in prompting debate.
Thanks for your views
Looking at Mr Storey’s article https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/cracks-beginning-appear-russia-india-relationship especially the last 3 paras.
It seems plain the is NOT suggesting the US:
- wishes to replace Russia’s tradition role as main arms supplier to India
OR
- is trying to dissuade India from being politically close to Russia.
He is only Reporting, not advocating:
"The Trump and Biden administrations have both refused to rule out sanctioning India if it purchases S-400 defence missiles – or even other less sensitive Russian equipment. As India extends its security relationship with the US, both bilaterally and through the Quad, the pressure on India to significantly reduce purchases of Russian military equipment will likely only mount. Amid Russian disquiet and the US pressure, India has tried to chart a middle path."
The author’s main message seems to be the US should not pressure India to choose between the US and Russia – otherwise there’ll be unintended negatives for the US.
I would say the author is saying the US should remain neutral regarding India. Therefore there is no reason the US should try to replace Russia’s traditional arms provision to India with US arms. The US only provides old reactor designs to its closest NATO ally – the UK.
Regards
Pete
Hi,
As you mentioned in your last sentence "Therefore there is no reason the US should try to replace Russia’s traditional arms provision to India with US arms. The US only provides old reactor designs to its closest NATO ally – the UK."
That is the wish of US to replace Russia, we can close our eyes, and don't like to see it. But US want this. And I know US never will give certain technologies even the old one from 70s, that's why I said they are day-dreaming. the Americans should also realize that what they asking from India, even to formalizing Quad is untenable.
The close cooperation is so much that Russia helping India in space program (btw there were lot of things happened after ASAT test that it almost destroyed India US space cooperation, if trump haven't intervened, NASA almost scuttled programs like NISAR, also that's why ISRO got cold feet seeing this and cutoff any tie with NASA regarding Indian manned mission), in strategic missiles like K-5/K-6. In helping India to develop MIRVs.
I don't know why US call it India-US partnership as strategic, actually India-Russia partnership is more strategic partnership if we check the development between these two countries. India-US defense partnership is actually borderline bullshit. Its all about talking Afghanistan, donating cold weather gears during Ladakh standoff as strategic. And frankly, Indian Govt don't trust US & Aussie in Quad, they only trust Japanese. And there are several reasons for that why we trust Japanese so much and not Aussie and US. For example, this incident happened between 2000-2010, when a Delhi class destroyer was visiting ASEAN countries on port-calls, RAAF again & again buzzed with P-3C, and they only stopped once main radar of destroyer locked on. And this is true, Aussie see India squeezing the AoI , with programs like SSNs and Maritime theater Command it only going to increase.
Someone need to ponder, that might be that why Aussie chosen Naval Group is because Indians and French were/are getting too close in nuclear/defense arena. And they expected French Govt itself get involved in this deal, like it happened in Rafael deal, and they able to persuade French.
This is might be a bit of a conspiracy theory. :P
Hi Arpit Kanodia [at Mar 6, 2021, 12:10:00 AM]
Thank you for your extra-ordinarily blunt views, directly above. It is not often that diplomacy experiences such bliss.
You are right. India is a natural fit for Russia's ordered brand of democracy that brooks no opposition and all within Putin's Personal Russian Realm.
The US and Australia should be most cautious - of including India in a Quad. Luckily its only at a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue newby stage - with containment of China the only thing in common.
The Indian Ocean, after all, will be new bold Hindu nationalist nuclear weaponised India's backyard. Even a more stable (though godless) PLA-N may be preferable - with China also being Australia's main trading partner.
Australia should really be casting around for allies elsewhere. Who knows, Indonesia to may have the Islamic Bomb one day and it could be Australia's ally.
Kind Regards Muchacho :)
Pete
Here is the problem of perception, I don't think any Indian Govt or even people see world from the prism of democracy, freedom or Human rights. And I think its a good thing, we shouldn't, seriously why we care Russians are democratic or Putin want to next gorbachev? India should think what we can gain, does Russia can provide deterrence factor against China, obviously yes. Does US can do that same?, not atleast in next 100 years. They dont trust us, neither we trust them.
And I am pretty sure, Indian Govt already decided that gain whatever tech we can gain from US, until they go against us. Its purely realpolitik.
On the issue of Indian Ocean, I don't know where this is Hindu nationalist Indian Ocean coming from, I think assuming India as being nationalist suddenly linked with religion and being Hindu because of BJP is in power? Here is your analysis is quite wrong. India doesn't work like that. I don't know why people assume India being nationalist mean linked to religion, the general population of India always was nationalist, historically.
I think chinese done a quite spot on analysis of India
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/In-Their-Own-Words/Article-Display/Article/2485204/plas-science-of-military-strategy-2013/
Even Congress party, for most part of history, portrayed itself as nationalist, especially during IG days.
As for Indonesia, India or even Saudis & US never allow Indonesia to go nuclear. On alliance, ASEAN countries always seen Australia as friendly and ally than India, there is no doubt about that.
And I think even the Japanese understand it very well
https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2021/03/03/maersk-to-pioneer-first-ever-block-train-japan-uk-via-transiberian-railway
Hi Arpit Kanodia [at Mar 6, 2021, 11:00:00 PM ]
Thanks. It makes such a difficult choice: an authoritarian India? Russia in the middle? and/or China?
China, usually a quick and decisive trade partner with Australia. That was until Trump's Pompeo ordered Australia to press for an international inquiry into origins of COVID. That was always a World Health Organisation responsibility.
China retaliated. Aus-China trade relations then plunged after that - thank you US of A!
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And what can India offer due to the China trade shortfall.
India's Adani https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carmichael_coal_mine Carmichael Coal Mine propsal would only be profitable using Australia taxpayer money to underwrite it. Even commercial insurance companies won't touch it https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/au/news/environmental/brit-does-not-has-never-and-will-not-insure-adani-coal-mine-247325.aspx
Thanks for USAF intelligence's https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/In-Their-Own-Words/Article-Display/Article/2485204/plas-science-of-military-strategy-2013/ .
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Re "Hindu nationalism" Not too many of the 195+ million Indian Muslims have any Indian nuclear weapon responsibilities. Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Forces_Command#List_of_commanders and lower ranks unlisted, any Muslims?
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China is not the only rising nuclear weapons power, that will compete with the US.
Too many Indian scholars write about Mahan - suggested the Indian Ocean (on which Western Australia sits) will be treated as an Indian Sea (Latin: "Indian mare") with Indian nuclear weapons as the big stick.
Regards
Pete
Hi again Arpit Kanodia [Mar 6, 2021, 11:04:00 PM]
Thanks for https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2021/03/03/maersk-to-pioneer-first-ever-block-train-japan-uk-via-transiberian-railway .
The fact that Japan trades with Russia.
India trades with China
Australia trades with China
Japan trades with China
US trades with China
Does not preclude strategic hypersensitive distrust between trading countries on the crucial military level.
Regards
Pete
I dont know where this authoritarian India coming from? This is an elected govt, and mind you the indian election are more fairer than the joke happened in US.
But if people in Aussie want to see the world from prism of ideology, not realpolitik, sorry; but then they already lost the plot.
As for authoritarian India, that's upto Indians to decide. And they deciding again & again. I don't know why westerners want to close there eyes and think themselves as holier than thou. Even when , the muslim vote that's what giving BJP swing vote in states like UP.
But I dont think it going to matter, I think people in Aus already decided to think from perspective of ideology instead of rationalization & self-interest. There is nothing else Indians or anyone can do to change the mind, when they already decided.
And this is not new to us, this happened with PV Narsima Rao. So we will deal with it.
And as for "Indian Ocean", I dont know what Mahan mean, in my dictionary Mahan mean great in hindi. But that's upto Aussie to assume anything they want, even though Deigo Garcia is 2000 km away from india.
https://www.navy.gov.au/about/organisation/comausflt
Also, I don't see aboriginal commander in it, btw, might be they forgotten to add any? Ohh, Aussies are still celebrating Aus Day when the settlers colonized the local population & killed them. Hmmm.
I seriously feel dopamine in me when west questions India.
Hi Arpit Kanodia [your Mar 8, 2021, 6:35:00 PM]
Yes India is a vibrant democracy. I’ll admit that. And not as narrowband conservative as the US - where Republicans and Democrats need to be conservative to get voted in.
You may have already noticed I’m being sneaky and using you as a sounding board – no insult intended.
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Australians increasingly see India through a first or second generation Indian lens.
India is the largest source of new permanent annual migrants to Australia since 2016.
20.5% or 33,310 out of 162,417 Australian permanent resident visas went to the Indians who also additionally had 70,000 students were studying in Australian universities.
Hindi (ranked 8th with 0.7% of total population) and Punjabi (ranked 10th with 0.6% of total population) among the top 10 languages spoken in Australia.
The largest Indian Australian population is found in the state of Victoria. Many politicians in Melbourne Victoria rely on the Indian Australian vote to reach or keep in power.
As of 2016, Indians were the highest educated migrant group in Australia with 54.6% of Indians in Australia having a bachelor's or higher degree, more than three times Australia's national average.
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By “Mahan” I’m talking of the Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840 – 1914) US naval officer and historian, "the most important American strategist of the nineteenth century."
His book "The Influence of Sea Power Upon the French Revolution and Empire, 1793–1812" (published 1892), made him world-famous and perhaps the most influential American author of the 19th century.
Mahan believed that national greatness (especially via a powerful Navy) was inextricably associated with the sea. see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Thayer_Mahan
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Now see https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228621043_India's_Grand_Strategy_for_the_Indian_Ocean_Mahanian_Visions
This article considers how India sees the Indian Ocean, and in particular its drive to make the Indian Ocean, "India's Ocean."
Various comparisons and links are made. Firstly there is the role and application of Mahanian tenets of "sea-power," in particular naval projection, control of sea-routes and access to bases.
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I appreciate your views.
Regards
Pete
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