I publish on subs, other naval, nuclear weapons & broad political issues. Advised Aus, US, France. Aussie sub changes are slow: talk since 2009 rather than actual new subs. The Collins LOTE 2028-2040 might help Australia's sub availability temporarily. XLUUVs also handy. POTUS 2031 may cancel AUKUS Virginia offer due to USN advice it needs all operational SSNs to 2040s to mainly face China. Gessler, Karthik & Shawn C are excellent contributors.
To hedge against the likely non-delivery in the 2030s of Virginias under AUKUS and the only temporary fix of the LOTE of Collins conventional subs (SSKs), some suggest weekly:
"Why doesn't Australia buy interim submarines, that are off the shelf, to bridge the submarine availability gap until Virginias or SSN-AUKUS's arrive in the 2040s (or don't arrive at all)?"
Increasingly the suggested SSKs are South Korea's KSS-III or Japan's Taigei.
Logic, productivity and efficiency since the
beginning of Collins, through to today, have been usurped by South Australian
state, more Australia wide, RAN and Federal Government
financial-POLITICAL-electoral priorities.
Basically ASC, the unions, South Australian
Government and supply chain companies from all over Australia, require the LOTE then possible new SSK building to only be at Osborne, not overseas.
Reasons
Australia's SSK building tradition always involves the highest possible infusions of Federal Government funds into South Australia.
Without the car factories it used to have, South Australia relies on warship and
submarine building federal money. All these industrial-political realities
double the building time for triple the money of a sub built overseas.
What do Federal governments (be they Labor and/or
Coalition) get out of this? They buy critical Federal Election votes from electoral swing state South Australia. A textbook example being then Prime Minister Turnbull
winning the July 2, 2016 Election by rushing the selection, on April 26, 2016, of the Attack class
submarine to be built at Osborne. Turnbull won enough federal seats in South
Australia to win that Election.If Australia had waited it may have been able to bargain Barracuda-Suffren SSNs out of France.
"Off the shelf" in terms of stocks of completed subs sitting at foreign warehouses, or a design meeting the needs of all customers, simply don't exist. As with the Collins the
RAN has special high speed, very long range, long endurance, very large SSK requirements. South Korean,
Japanese and German built subs (in response to their customer requirements)
have different speed-range qualities that do not match the RAN's genuine need
for long transit range missions at speed.
Singapore's Type 218 Invincibles were not off the
shelf but tailor made to Singapore's requirements using a mixture of Type 214
and Type 212CD characteristics. Every submarine customer requires some tailoring.
Between what I call the Osborne
"inefficiency" curse and necessary RAN tailoring any "Interim - Off the Shelf" SSK built at Osborne would take 15 years from 2026 = first sub commissioned in 2041, for
triple the price than if it were built overseas (eg. in South Korea, the most efficient Western SSK builder).
As I mentioned in my previous article, the biennial IMDEX 2025, held at Singapore's Changi Naval Base, had announcements and news on systems related to the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN).
New Mine-Countermeasure Capabilities
Image: DSO National Laboratories: MCM USV with K-Ster expendable mine disposal system. ---
First up, Singapore's Bedok-class MCM (a variant of the Swedish Landsort-class) will be replaced by a mine countermeasure suite from 2027 that includes Unmanned Surface Vessels (USV) and Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV). The four ships of the Bedok class first entered service in 1995.
The RSN has operated USVs since 2005, deploying an IAI Protector USV to the Gulf of Aden for force protection. Singapore’s DSO National Laboratories and ST Engineering then began the Venus USV development program with autonomous Collision Detection Collision Avoidance (CDCA) to navigate Singapore’s crowded littoral conditions. From the initial 9 metre Venus 9, DSO and ST Engineering developed the 16.9 metre MARSEC USV for both maritime security and mine countermeasures.
Thales announced at IMDEX 2025 that the RSN has purchased the Thales Pathfinder mine warfare system, which features a Towed Synthetic Aperture Sonar (T-SAS), while Exail also disclosed recently that Singapore has purchased multiple robotic Mine Identification and Disposal Systems (MIDS) including the K-STER expendable underwater drone, SEASCAN mine identification Remotely Piloted Vehicle (ROV), and the UMISOFT command and control (C2) suite.
Fleetwide adoption of STRALES
Image: EUNAVFOR Operation ASPIDES: Italian ship (ITS) Virginio Fasan engaging UAV with OTO 76mm/62 STRALES gun on April 29 2024, in the Red Sea. ---
Since IMDEX 2023, we’ve known that the MRCV weapons fit will include MBDA VL MICA NG and ASTER 30 B1 NT SAMs, ST/IAI Blue Spear ASMs and the LeonardoOTO 76mm/62 Super Rapid STRALES.
But during a recent written reply to questions from Janes Defence, Singapore’s Chief of Navy Rear Admiral Sean Wat confirmed that the RSN will adopt STRALES throughout its fleet, as the system has “proven to be effective against moving air and surface targets” - likely a reference to the STRALES-equipped Italian Navy FREMM frigate ITS Virginio Fasan, which shot down a hostile UAV on the 29th of April 2024 during a merchant escort operation in the Red Sea.
STRALES is an upgrade kit that enables the OTO 76/62 naval gun to fire the DART (Driven Ammunition Reduced Time of flight) guided munition, allowing the gun to engage fast and small airborne/surface targets rapidly out to 15km.
The RSN first adopted the OTO Melara 76/62 SR gun in 1990 with the Victory-class missile corvettes, and it is currently the standard main gun for all RSN surface combatants, except the Bedok-class MCMs. As STRALES is available as an upgrade kit to in-service guns, I expect the Formidable-class frigates to upgrade to STRALES as they are now undergoing their Mid-Life Update (MLU), and the Independence-class LMV when they undergo scheduled maintenance.
Type 218SG Follow-On Order Signed
Image: MINDEF Singapore: RSS Invincible. ---
I have previously speculated that Singapore would order a third tranche (5th and 6th) Invincible-class (Type 218SG) submarines from thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), and this confirmed at IMDEX 2025 with a contract signing ceremony.
TKMS now has a full order book of around €16 billion, with up to 20 submarines on order - 12 to 15 Type 212CD for the German and Royal Norwegian Navies, 3 Dakar-class boats for the Israeli Navy, and 2 Invincible-class boats for Singapore, which are scheduled for delivery from 2034.
No details of this contract were revealed, but as this order comes 12 years after the initial contract for the first two boats, we can expect some modifications to the design specifications, such as the inclusion of a VLS module.
With the first 4 Invincible-class submarines entering RSN service by 2028, this would expand Singapore's operational submarine fleet to 6, alongside the 2 Archer-class boats, though the 'from 2034' delivery date of the third tranche is slightly concerning, as this means that the Archers will need to serve 22 years in the RSN, in addition to the 25 years they served in the Royal Swedish Navy as HSwMS Vastergotland and HSwMS Halsingland.
MRCV model displayed at IMDEX 2025
Image: Image capture from Naval News video. ---
Janes Defence notes that Singapore’s ST Engineering had a model of the MRCV as the centrepiece of their booth, and the model highlighted the area below the flight deck where two large PALFINGER Marine PQBS-SR Slipway Systems for Launch and Recovery (LARS) of RHIBs and USVs. Janes also highlighted the model’s bulbous bow, which indicates a hull-mounted sonar.
Integrating a towed sonar array may not be possible because of the LARS, although this does not preclude an USV deployed system such as the Thales Australia BlueSentry Remote Active Sonar System (RASS).
Note that PALFINGER has not disclosed the Safe Working Load capacity of the PQBS-SR slipway system for the MRCV, but we could imply that PALFINGER stated “large” to handle the MARSEC USV, which are 16.9 metres in length and displace 30 tonnes.
Both the Independence-class LMV and the upcoming Fassmer Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) feature dual PALFINGER Marine Slipway Systems, with the LMVs able to carry vessels up to 11 metres in length.
Image: PALFINGER Marine. ---
Navalnews has also confirmed that the MRCV will be 150 metres long, with a beam of 21.04 metres and with a full load displacement of 8,400 tonnes, and have accommodations for up to 160 personnel.
The MRCVs will use Combined Diesel and Diesel (CODAD) by M.A.N. with an Integrated Full Electric Propulsion (IFEP) system with electric motors by GE Vernova. This will enable a top speed of 24 knots.
The model displayed at IMDEX 2025 showed a 4x8 VLS system behind the main gun, and a large enclosed space between the primary superstructure and the funnels/helicopter hanger, which could be the location for the Blue Spear Anti-Ship missile system. A similar ‘missile/flex deck’ on the Formidable-class enables these frigates to carry up the 24 Harpoon SSMs.
In addition to the MARSEC USV, unmanned systems for the MRCV may also include:
At IMDEX 2025, Fassmer Defence revealed its latest Offshore Patrol Vessel design, the OPV90 MK II. Fassmer has a 90m Offshore Patrol Vessel in its product catalogue for a few years, but the model of the OPV90 MK II is significantly different from the parent design, featuring a detailed weapons and equipment fit that’s not usually seen in a ‘marketing’ model - such as communication systems, OTO 76/62 STRALES main gun, Saab Sea Giraffe 1x AESA radar, secondary RCW weapons fit and an equipment bay for four 20-foot-ISO containers, plus integrated fenders for alongside operations - a feature that is also found on the RSN's Sentinal-class Maritime Security and Response Vessels (MRSV).
Fassmer confirmed to NavalNews that the OPV90 Mk II is in production, and since we know Fassmer has laid the keels for the first two of four OPVs that the RSN ordered, it's quite obvious that the OPV90 Mk II will fly the Singapore naval ensign.
IMDEX 2025 was held May 6 to May 8, 2025 and was judged a smashing success.
Regarding your second paragraph on any UK/European deterrence umbrella for Australia:
In 2024, the Federation of American Scientists estimated Russia had 5,580 nuclear warheads (facing NATO, China and possibly North Korea). Against this the US had 5,428 warheads (facing Russia, China, Iran and North Korea).
The UK and France combined only have 550 warheads, with insufficient operational redundancy (maybe 350 in patrolling SSBNs and French air/missile bases) to face even Russia alone.
They have none left to face Australia's nuclear threat - which is China. In any case could we expect them to be prepared to sacrifice London and Paris to protect Sydney?
UK and French SSN and especially new generation SSBN production commitments for their own navies mean they cannot domestically produce SSNs for Australia or oversee SSN production in Australia until the 2040s. This is why Virginias for Australia in the 2030s were such a good idea - in 2021.
Such is China's expansion in naval power in the Western Pacific that widely committed US conventional forces would now be hard pressed to defeat China.
UK/European conventional naval forces have even poorer force projection to defend Australia. With a shaky US alliance they are fully committed facing the increasing Russian threat. This all means they cannot approach even the US's declining ability to protect Australia from China's naval and military forces.
In an Indo-Pacific war against China the actions of other powers (India, Japan and South Korea) might well amount to self protection (against Chinese land, sea, air and conventional missile forces) before those powers pursue any broad strategy of banding together with Australia.
Also the rumour this year that Russia was discussing a long range aircraft base in Indonesia (in the central Indo-Pacific) presented additional strategic possibilities. One thing is certain - Russia has a powerful, fast moving, nuclear submarine force within its Pacific Fleet. This, at a minimum, gives Russia the ability to upset Australia's 99% reliance on shipping trade.
This is the best video I've seen on AUKUS Virginia problems, particularly 3 minutes 53 seconds onwards. The video is by MilitaryRatedrun by four former military men from NATO countries Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark. The video was uploaded May 17, 2025. ---
There is now rising Trump triggered distrust amongst allies. US transactional deal-making may sharply increase the cost of AUKUS Virginias on the remote chance they are surplus to USN requirements.
A third term Trump may still be in office in the pivotal year 2031 allowing him to decide if used Virginias can go to Australia. Alternatively the equally isolationist, charismatic speaking,Vice President JD Vance might be President 2029-2033. Either might nail AUKUS Virginias' chances.
February 3, 2025. It gets a few weapons systems wrong (like China's Type 092 SSBNs being the future and propeller driven P-8s) but much else is excellent, like China's and India's Indian Ocean bases and strategy.
---
East Coast Nuclear Submarine Base
India's nuclear submarine base, under construction, is called INS Varshaon India's east coast.
As early as 2005, a nuclear sub base was planned to be located less than 200 km from INSVisakhapatnam(often shortened to Vizag).Vizag is the headquarters of India's Eastern Naval Command. Rambilli was chosen as the final location to construct the nuclear sub base. INS Varsha is
being developed and expanded in phases at Rambilli 50 km south of Vizag.
While the Navy mans India's Arihant-class SSBNs, operational control resides with India's Strategic Forces Command in Delhi. India's SSBNs will be the first Indian nuclear subs based at
INS Varsha.
Reasons to move the nuclear subs from Vizag port included decongesting the port and providing the subs with greater protection from conventional or nuclear attack. The Navy's
dockyards at Vizag were facing a shortage of berthing space due to the rapid
expansion of the Eastern fleet, which grew from 15 major warships in 2006 to 46
in 2012, and is still expanding. Civilian ships also use Vizag berths. Extensive crew accommodation is also part of the Varsha plan.
INS Varsha is near to one of the facilities of the
Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC)providing modern nuclear engineering support facilities. This will expedite reactor refuelling, maintenance and repair. Nuclear warhead maintenance (eg. topping up Tritium levels) might also be a job for the Navy and BARC nearby.
Varsha is designed
to support a fleet of 12 nuclear subs including a rolling average of 6 SSBNs (drawn from 4 Arihants then 4 S5s) and 6 SSNs. These subs will be protected in a network of
underground pens in tunnels dug into the Eastern Ghats mountain range. This would avoid detection of the
subs by mainly Chinese satellite and aerial surveillance as well as protect the subs from aircraft, missile and naval gunfire attacks. The subs will be able to be deployed into the waters of the Bay of Bengal stealthily without needing
to surface. This is because the depth of the developing tunnel network and deep waters would act together like a "cloak".
However, Chinese submarine or UUV laid undersea sensors might be able to detect the submerged Indian subs' comings and goings. So India will need to constantly "sweep" to find and disable these sensors.
While designed principally as a nuclear submarine
support facility, the new base will also accommodate additional surface naval
vessels after the ongoing construction of piers. Varsha is comparable to China's PLANLongpo/Yulin Hainan island nuclear submarine base. INS Varsha was started due to India's Look East
policy and Chinese naval expansion into the Indian Ocean.
West Coast Nuclear Submarine Base
While Varsha is being partly undertaken to enhance India's naval capabilities on the east coast a similar expansion is being undertaken on India's west coast. This is at INS Kadambaunder Project Seabirdperhaps to include tunnels in theWestern Gnatsmountain range. INS Kadamba issurprisingly near the west coast city of Karwar. Any serious conventional or nuclear attack on future deep dug submarine tunnels at INS Kadamba would do Karwar no good. Karwar is 640km down the west coast from Mumbai. Mumbai hosts India's Western Fleet HQ along with many ships.
Both the Varsha and Seabird projects will take India many more years to complete. Meanwhile China's hardened Hainan base and second generation (or 2.5 generation?) nuclear submarine fleet is 20 to 30 years ahead.
GhalibKabir contrubued to the post below. On 10
October 2024 India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) in August 2024, authorised the laying down of 2 Project
77 SSNs costed at a total of US$4.7 billion.
Project 77 (formerly Project 75 Alpha) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_77-class_submarineis India’s
program to build a class of 6 of its first nuclear powered attack submarines SSNs.
In February 2015 the CCS authorised the eventual construction of those 6 SSNs costing all up US$14 billion
(a figure that will increase greatly over time).These are being designed by
the Indian Navy's Warship Design Bureau and built in India at the Ship Building
Centre adjacent to India’s Fleet Base East (east coast) complex at Visakhapatnam (often shortened to “Vizag”).
Design and some construction has commenced with the first SSN expected to enter
service around 2040. Three Indian Arihant-class SSBNs have already been produced at the Ship Building Centre.
India's submarine developments, including Project 77 (was Project 75 Alpha) are described 2 minutes 20 seconds into the above youtube from Athena Defence (uploaded 2024). ---
India’s SSNs are likely to be heavily influenced by
Russian SSN technology especially the submarine reactor. This is because India leased
a Russian Charlie I SSN (K-43) known in Indian service as INS
Chakra Iand a Russian Akula II SSN (K-152 Nerpa) in Indian service called INS Chakra II. Convention submarine
technology in the French and German submarine classes India has purchased for
decades and Indian information gathering on other designs are also likely to influence India’s
SSN design.
India’s
SSNs will be powered by one CLWR-B2 pressurised water reactor (see right sidebar here) with an output of 190MW (thermal). This is a development of
the Russian OK-650 reactoralso rated at 190MW (thermal) converting to 34MW
(electrical). For the 34MW figure see right sidebar here.
Weapons
(Missiles)
India’s
SSNs may have 8 to 12 VLS for BrahMos I or II (900 to 1,500km range) supersonic or hypersonic cruise missiles and Nirbhaysubsonic cruise missiles (1,500km range). All these weapons are
nuclear capable. India may have discontinued Russian produced Club anti-ship cruise missiles
by the time the SSNs are commissioned in the 2040s.
While
12 VLS slots are likely, subsonic cruise missiles might be loaded 3 to a VLS and larger BrahMos at one to a VLS. So up to 3 x 12 = 36 missiles could be carried in VLS. More
missiles might be accommodated if a Universal Vertical Launch Module (UVLM) is added and if it is modified to more than 1 metre diameter.
Since
subsonic missiles can get launched through the 533 mm torpedo tubes as well,
depending on layout, 6 missiles could get carried in the torpedo section.
"...Mr Trump’s tariff plans have raised some concerns about Aukus in Australia and questions remain as to whether Washington can boost US submarine production to meet its own targets and allow sales to Australia.
Among other obstacles, US controls on sensitive defence exports, relaxed for Australia and Britain and the Aukus project in 2024, still apply to certain submarine technology, requiring the issuance of special licences that can be time-consuming to obtain.
There have been concerns, too, about the Australian Labor government’s reluctance to discuss using Aukus submarines against China, something that could hurt US deterrence efforts in the Indo-Pacific if US vessels are transferred. REUTERS"
In a development that is sure to trigger Pete about Australia's convoluted naval construction issues, Singapore's ST Engineering Marine shipbuilder (majority owned by Singapore's GIC, Temasak Holdings) has begun construction of the second Multi-Role Combat Vessel (MRCV). This means that the MRCV program is on track to see all six units delivered to the Republic of Singapore Navy from 2028 - a very speedy build time, considering these are large surface combatants.
Image from: NavalNews
The MRCV program was initiated in 2017 by the RSN as the successor class to the 500-ton Victory-class missile corvette, with the first public mention in 2018. The program also has a tie-in to Singapore's biannual IMDEX naval exhibition, with a host of shipbuilders, like DAMEN, Naval Group and ST Marine, showcasing potential designs at IMDEX 2019 in May 2019.
At IMDEX 2023, a Saab/OMT joint design was chosen, with ST Engineering Marine serving as the primary contractor and builder, and Singapore's Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA) assuming overall program management. While in 2019, many of us assumed that the class would be a frigate-sized vessel with a displacement of 4,000 tons to 6,000 tons, NavalNews confirmed at IMDEX 2023 from conversations with bidding companies that the RSN's requirements had escalated displacement to 8,000 tons, with a crew complement of 80 - this indicates a high degree of automation, and is also in line with the Singapore Navy's current practice of using ST Marine to conduct all levels of MRO.
Steel was cut for the first in class in March 2024, and the keel was laid in October 2024, with the first vessel scheduled to launch by the end of 2025 (yes, this is a 21-month build program for the hull of an 8,000-ton surface combatant), though she will likely need two more years for fitting out of ship and combat systems before she's delivered to the RSN for commissioning, likely in early 2028.
If ST Engineering Marine maintains this current production schedule, with a MRCV hull completed every year, this would mean that the sixth and final hull should be launched in 2030.
IMDEX 2025 is next week, and I am certain that there will be further updates on the MRCV, such as what they are actually going to be called (the RSN seems to favour attribute names, so we will not see an RSS Lee Kuan Yew as he actually disliked this practice), and we should find out what the ships will actually look like!
