David Valance
at Australia’s Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter has written an excellent article:
“Putting the UK back into AUKUS?”
of February 16, 2026
at https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/putting-uk-back-aukus
February 19, 2026
David Valance's article “Putting the UK back into AUKUS?”
February 17, 2026
2nd US Carrier Group on way to Iran Region
US NBC News reports February 14, 2026 at https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-sends-us-aircraft-carrier-ford-middle-east-iran-tensions-high-rcna258903
"The USS Ford Carrier Strike Group has been notified that they are leaving the
Caribbean and headed to the Middle East, according to two U.S. officials
familiar with the decision. The Ford will join the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier
group already in the region. The decision comes as tensions with Iran remain
high."
“…The
Ford’s planned deployment to the Mideast comes after President Donald Trump
only days earlier suggested another round of talks with the Iranians was at
hand. Those negotiations didn’t materialize as one of Tehran’s top security
officials visited Oman and Qatar this week and exchanged messages with the U.S.
intermediaries.”
Pete
Comment
It
is unclear whether the Ford Group by February 25, 2026:
- will sail to the eastern Mediterranean and cruise there
or
- sail on through the Suez
Canal - Red Sea -- Arabian Sea off Iran
or
- more
simply around the Cape of Good Hope/South Africa then north through the Indian Ocean to Arabian Sea off Iran.
This also depends on the disposition of the Lincoln group. All amounting to hugely expensive speak loudly (not softly) and carry big sticks to pursue Trump's US imposed peace through violent stand over strategies.
Submarines?: Each carrier group is most probably being escorted by a US SSN.
Iran's submarines include 3 x Kilo (877s) medium sized SSKs, 1 x small Fateh class SSK and 20 x midget (120 tonne) Ghadir class SSKs - large in number, generally low in capability.
February 15, 2026
Huge AUKUS Submarines Project Osborne South Australia
Without
question or curiosity (such as "can the unproductive US and UK submarine industries deliver?") Australia's government owned ABC News reported
a multi $Billion project on February 15, 2026 at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-15/down-payment-for-30b-adelaide-submarine-shipyard/106346484
"Prime Minister announces [US$2.76 billion] 'down payment'
towards [US$21.2b] Adelaide submarine shipyard
In
short:
The
prime minister has announced [US$2.76 billion] in funding towards [US$21.2
billion] in work for the new submarine construction yard in Adelaide.
It
will be identical to another shipyard building submarines in the UK.
What's
next?
Construction
work at the site is set to continue until 2040.
The
South Australian and federal governments have released plans
worth [US$21.2 billion] for a shipyard in Adelaide that will build at
least eight nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact with the US and the
UK.
[Australia's]
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the Commonwealth would make
a [US$2.76 billion] "down payment" towards the work at
Osborne, with the rest of funding to "flow continuously" over the
rest of the shipyard's construction, due to be complete in 2040.
On
top of enabling works worth [US$1.4 billion], construction has already started
on a fabrication area worth [US$3.5 billion] and a Skills and Training Academy
worth [US$354 million].
The
The new fabrication hall for submarines will be 420 metres long — more than
twice this one at the Osborne South shipyard.
The
shipyard's developer, Australian Naval Infrastructure (ANI), a company owned by
the federal government, estimated the next stage, an outfitting area, would
cost [US$5.66 billion] to build, while an area for consolidation, testing,
launching and commission would cost more than [US$10.6 billion].
The
state government estimated at least 4,000 workers would design and build the
submarine construction yard, while 5,500 workers would support nuclear-powered
submarine production at its peak.
Long time frame for delivery
The
submarines are being built as part of the
[US$260-billion] AUKUS submarine pact announced in 2021.
It
replaced a deal to
build French-designed submarines, also in Adelaide.
The
first part of the plan is for Australia to buy between three and five
nuclear-powered submarines from the US, beginning in the early 2030s, including
at two second-hand Virginia-class submarines.
Five
of the eight SSN-AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines are due to be delivered by
the middle of the 2050s, with the final three delivered in the 2060s.
Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead of the
Australian Submarine Agency points out different parts of the new
shipyard. (ABC News)
---
Vice
Admiral Jonathan Mead, the director-general of the Australian Submarine Agency,
said experts from the US and the UK had been in Adelaide advising the build.
He
said the manufacturing process at Osborne would be "identical" to the
shipyard building submarines in the UK [except no Australian expertise in handling submarine reactors!].
"Their
facilities are 120 years old; ours will be the most modern submarine yard in
the world,"
Vice
Admiral Mead said.
Mr
Albanese said the construction work and then the work building submarines would
provide thousands of jobs into the future in Adelaide.
"If
you're a 15 or 16 year old thinking about what am I going to do with my life,
you can be assured that there will be well-paid, secure jobs here in Adelaide
and you'll get … that satisfaction of seeing what you are creating as a product
of your labour and knowing that it is very much your contribution as well to
our national interest for decades ahead," Mr Albanese said.
"We
do live in an uncertain world, but we can be certain of the economic benefit to
the tune of [US$21.2 billion] going forward here in South Australia."
Much larger than frigate work
Mr
Albanese met with South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas for a media
conference at the Osborne South shipyard five weeks ahead of the state
election.
Mr
Malinauskas said the investment at Osborne South, where
six Hunter class frigates are being built, was "extraordinary"
but it "pales into insignificance" compared with the work for the
AUKUS submarines.
"[We're]
here to announce arguably the most structurally significant contribution to our
economy that we will ever see," Mr Malinauskas said."
"What
has been announced today completely dwarfs some of the investments that we've
seen in South Australia's recent past — that boggles the mind."
While
the premier said "much" of the steel for the buildings would come
from Whyalla, Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn said she was hopeful a range of
South Australian businesses could be part of the project.
"It's
really important that we don't just become a glorified IKEA where we're
bringing in products from right across the world and just assembling them here
in South Australia," Ms Hurn said.
"We
need to be at the heart of this manufacturing opportunity, because that's what
will set us up for generations to come."
Defence Teaming Centre chief executive Libby Day says the announcement gives some certainty.
Libby
Day from the Defence Teaming Centre, which brings together different parts of
the defence industry, welcomed the announcement but said long-term contracts
were needed for local businesses.
"We need to go a step further — we need certainty around decisions involving the contracting of local companies into the supply chain of building SSN-AUKUS," Ms Day said.”
February 12, 2026
Straits, Submarines and Law of the Sea
During
peacetime and training missions international law and international relations impact submarine
movements in straits and narrows even if secrecy is assumed.
Impacting
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey
has the responsibility to monitor, regulate, and police the Turkish Straits,
which consist of: the Bosphorus, Sea of Marmara and the Dardanelles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits
The
Strait of Hormuz is also very topical given attacks against Iran and
scope that these may soon prevent tankers from transiting this Strait https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00908320.2022.2096158#d1e158
.
On 2/07/2026 5:02 PM Shawn C Co-author of this Submarine and Nuclear Matters blog, made the very interesting points :
“…I
have stated before that the Straits of Malacca are an international passageway
and governed under [the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)] https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part3.htm )
Only
the three littoral states, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore can jointly patrol
the Straits (the Thais sometimes send a warship for joint patrols), so any
country sending warships to unilaterally patrol the Malacca Straits, which lies
in Malaysian and Indonesian territorial waters, would be ‘frowned upon’.
No
nation can stop a ship who is exercising the right of innocent passage - this
is why we can see Russian shadow fleet tankers sailing past Singapore. ( https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/shadow-fleet-vessels-zombie-ships-sanctioned-cargo-oil-russia-iran-singapore-straits-5563491
)
If
these ships were to pull out of the international lanes for whatever reason and
enter Singapore’s territorial waters, they would immediately be stopped by
Singapore’s Police Coast Guard.”
Pete Comment
Other UNCLOS
aspects relate specifically to submarines.
Under UNCLOS (Article 20) the right of innocent passage for submarines is strictly regulated due to the potential threat they pose to coastal state security. To exercise innocent passage through a foreign territorial sea, submarines must navigate on the surface and show their flag.
Submerged passage without
authorization constitutes a violation of the coastal state's sovereignty. For
passage to be considered "innocent," it must not threaten the coastal
state's peace, good order, or security, excluding activities like espionage or
pollution.
Coastal
states can impose restrictions, such as requiring submarines to use specific
sea lanes, and can temporarily suspend innocent passage for security reasons.
This
differs from "transit passage" through international straits, where
submarines are permitted to remain submerged. Failure to comply with these
rules can result in the coastal state ordering the submarine to leave its
waters. Essentially, a submarine's right to innocent passage within 12 nautical
miles of a foreign coast is limited to surfaced navigation.
Main Source: Kazuhiro Nakatani's, Submarines at Oxford Public International Law. last updated July 2008 at https://opil.ouplaw.com/display/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e1839 A very comprehensive paper on the subject published under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law under the direction of Professor Anne Peters (2021–) and Professor Rüdiger Wolfrum (2004–2020).
February 10, 2026
Future Canadian Submarines' biggest task Monitor approaches to Arctic & other Chokepoints
----------------
The new submarines Canada plans to buy will not arrive with all the necessary equipment to operate under Arctic ice, meaning they will require modifications after delivery, the head of the navy says. This is under the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP).
Vice-Admiral Angus Topshee said Canada will need to add under-ice gear to the boats after
they arrive, such as upward-facing sonar that can detect and map overhead ice
and areas of open water.
“Rather than
only being worried about the bottom below us, we’re going to be worried about
the ice above us, because the ice is actually less predictable,” Topshee said in an interview.
Topshee also said
under-ice operations will not be a significant component of the submarines’
tasks. Instead, their biggest task will be monitoring approaches to the Arctic
and other chokepoints.
Canada is
seeking up to 12 new submarines and has narrowed the search to two models: one
from South Korea and another from a joint German-Norwegian partnership. Ottawa
is expected to pick one of these vessels this year.
This would be
the largest submarine purchase in Canadian history. It’s being made at a time
of heightened anxiety over the country’s sovereignty in the Arctic, as world
powers, including the United States, increasingly look north for resources and
shipping lanes. Canada is also under pressure to increase its military
expenditures in order to hit a new, higher NATO spending target.
Topshee called the needed under-ice operation modifications “relatively simple”
to accomplish, but said Canada will proceed carefully on developing its
capability in the Arctic environment.
“That’s what
we’re going to be targeting: to be able to come up to the surface in basically
a crack of open water if we want to,” Topshee said. “Part of ability to
operate under there is to be able to return safely to the surface when it’s
possible.”
Topshee said the majority of the effort by the new submarine fleet will be
monitoring the chokepoints in the Bering Strait, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and
the transit between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, as well as the Juan de Fuca
Strait between British Columbia and Washington State, the entrance to the Puget
Sound and the approaches to northern Vancouver Island, Prince Rupert, B.C., and
Kitimat, B.C.
Topshee said after
taking delivery of the submarines, Canada will “start to work toward going
under-ice, up into the Arctic, and then developing an actual under-ice
capability.”
Topshee said Canada will also have to verify whether any other modifications are
necessary because of the frigid temperatures of Arctic waters.
February 4, 2026
AUKUS Submarines Situation Getting Worse
Since it was announced in 2021 the
AUKUS Pillar 1 situation has been getting worse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS#Pillar_1_%E2%80%93_Nuclear-powered_submarines
From 2028 [1] US completion
rates will actually decline from 1.1 standard Virginias per year to 0.8 larger
Virginia Block Vs - making availability for the Australian navy even worse. The
US is flat out building Columbia-class SSBNs (the highest USN priority - which
is where Australia's gifted AUKUS $Billions are ending up). The main US effort is
building Columbias until 2042, [2] with sufficient Virginias only
available to send to the Australian navy in the mid 2040s. The UK situation of
only one or no Astutes available at any one time, is even worse, as this bodes ill for
the Astutes' successor, the SSN AUKUS.
Like the Vietnam War that failed,
AUKUS is too big to admit failure - until US withdrawal, or reason, forces
Australia to withdraw.
[1] See USS
Oklahoma and USS Arizona, the first Virginia Block Vs. expected to be
commissioned in 2028. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class
[2] See “All twelve [Columbias] are expected
to be completed by 2042…” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine#Overview
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