China Displeased With SSN Triplets (J, Aus & SK)

Pete Comment

Below China has voiced its displeasure with the plans of my newly coined term "SSN Triplets" (that is the SSN intentions of Australia, South Korea and particularly Japan). The US is doing its upmost to manipulate the SSN programs of all 3 Triplets.

Japan is the most powerful of the Triplets, economically, militarily and arguably in nuclear weapons capability. See my "Japan's Nuclear Weapon Breakout Capability" and "Japan Long Term Planning ICBM as well as SSGN Capabilities? Hypersonic Missiles"

Japan is the only one of the 3 that has invaded China (invasion of Manchuria (1931) to most of China until 1945).

Hence the concentration on Japan in China's Global Times article below.

The good AI explains "China strongly opposes [SSN] programs pursued by Australia, South Korea, and Japan. [China views these programs] as a serious challenge to regional stability, a disruption of the non-proliferation framework, and a direct strategy by the US and its allies to contain China's growing naval power [major source]"  

Article

(intelligence professionals should be aware that clicking Global Times links may trigger Chinese spyware intrusions)

An opinion piece from the People’s Republic of China’s Global Times, of October 15, 2026, at https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202610/1372361.shtml states:

[Photo via Global Times - with caption] "Demonstrators stage a rally before the Diet against the Japanese government's nuclear policies in Tokyo, Japan, on November 21, 2025. Protesters also call on the government to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Photo: VCG."
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"Why Takaichi’s remarks about nuclear-powered submarines are so dangerous"

"With her parliamentary remarks, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has pried open a crack in the thickest seal guarding Japan's postwar taboos on military use of nuclear energy.

According to Japan's Kyodo News, Takaichi stated during a session of the House of Representatives Budget Committee that in response to the "increased military activity by its neighbors," the Japanese government will "seriously consider" the possibility of Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF) introducing nuclear-powered submarines. Sources reportedly indicate Tokyo intends to include this option when updating its key documents on defense and security later this year.

The phrase "seriously consider" does not indicate prudence, but rather serves as a prelude. While citing "limited intelligence-gathering and surveillance capabilities in the Pacific," Takaichi also singled out nuclear-powered submarine developments in Australia and South Korea - a rhetorical maneuver: She frames Japan as a "passive follower," portrays military expansion as a "defensive necessity," and casts taboo-breaking moves as a "regional trend." Her goal is to embed nuclear-powered submarines in this year's revised security and defense documents, turning a once-forbidden option into a "future initiative" in official policy texts. This is dangerous.

Successive Japanese cabinets have long barred the military use of nuclear energy under the Atomic Energy Basic Law, enacted in 1955, which stipulates the peaceful use of nuclear power. In 1965, the Japanese government issued an explicit interpretation prohibiting nuclear energy from being used as propulsion for SDF vessels - an interpretation that has remained in force to this day. "Now, Takaichi's remarks on considering the introduction of nuclear‑powered submarines mark a major conceptual breach of Japan's Atomic Energy Basic Law and the long‑standing Three Non‑Nuclear Principles it underpins," said Lü Yaodong, research fellow at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

He noted that this was not a spur-of-the-moment statement, but rather an intentional, aggressive step aligned with the revision of three security documents scheduled for this year, a move with significant timing implications. The proposal to introduce nuclear-powered submarines is intended to lay the groundwork for provisions in the revised security documents, push for the inclusion of nuclear-powered submarines in Japan's medium- and long-term defense plans, and pave the way for the further undermining of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles.

"Japan is using nuclear-powered submarines as a breakthrough point to challenge the nuclear taboo established after World War II; this is a very dangerous shift," Lü said.

In fact, elevating nuclear-powered submarines from a taboo topic to a top-tier policy agenda is a major step in Japan's years-long, incremental process of breaking through postwar military constraints.

Zhou Yongsheng, professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, said submarines are inherently offensive platforms for open-ocean operations; equipping them with nuclear propulsion is not merely a "conventional equipment upgrade," but a crucial step toward military nuclear capability. 

Takaichi's decision to raise this issue in the legislative arena of the House of Representatives had a very clear purpose: to publicly build momentum, secure lawmakers' support, and pave the way for subsequent policy and legislative amendments, according to Zhou.

Zhou further pointed out that Japan's Three Non-Nuclear Principles prohibit the manufacture, possession and introduction of nuclear weapons. A nuclear submarine can be understood as "half a nuclear weapon": Although it is not a full-fledged nuclear bomb, the combination of nuclear propulsion and an offensive submarine platform will effectively introduce military nuclear propulsion capabilities into the SDF.

Even more serious is the chain reaction. "Once the Pandora's box of introducing nuclear-powered submarines is opened, it will set a strongly negative precedent and trigger a chain reaction of regional arms races. If this comes to pass, it will cast a shadow over the global nuclear non-proliferation regime," Zhou warned.

Today, politicians in Tokyo speak of "seriously considering" this matter as if it were no big deal, but history will not treat it lightly: When nuclear-powered submarines go from being a taboo to a legislative proposal, Japan is not merely revising an ordinary policy, but tearing off the seal on the very aspect of the postwar order that should never be touched."

Japan Surrendering? to Chinese Warnings Against J Nuc Subs: SK?

Japan appears to be surrendering to Chinese warnings against Japan building nuclear powered submarines - or is that just Japanese propaganda?

Japan's government says its stepping back from plans to explicitly include the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines in its three core security documents by [2026's] end. Instead Japan's government says its considering a scaled-down commitment to launch related research.

Meanwhile South Korea (SK) is full steam ahead on nuc sub development.

Trump's Putin Relationship Effects Trump's Judgement Pre-Midterms

Even Trump's Russian cash bagmen can't rescue Trump's drop in US approval ratings pre-MidTerm Elections (that occur Nov 3 (US Time) 2026).

The Straits Times reports October 12, 2026: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/prominent-republican-senator-says-trumps-russian-diesel-deal-may-be-illegal

"WASHINGTON - Republican and Democratic US senators called on President Donald Trump on Oct 11 to “reverse course” on his diesel supply deal with Russia, saying it runs counter to US law barring imports of energy until Russia ends its aggression against Ukraine.

“Congress explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s brutal war against Ukraine,” the seven senators - four of Trump’s fellow Republicans and three Democrats - said in a statement.

They also said that the [Trump] administration failed to consult with Congress or submit any explanation of its decision, something also required by law.

“The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians. The Administration must immediately reverse course,” the statement said.

It was only the latest bipartisan criticism of Trump’s deal, a shift from his party’s near-unanimous support for Trump’s foreign policy decision weeks before Nov 3 midterm elections that will determine whether his Republicans will retain their control of Congress.

It was issued by Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Curtis of Utah and Democrats Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Ron Wyden of Oregon.

Tillis had said earlier on Oct 11 that the diesel deal may be illegal and would put American lives at risk."

10 year Aus Sub capability GAP could be filled by Aus NON-Sub Alternatives

In response to Kev's comment at 10/04/2026 8:02 PM

The end of the Life Of Type Extended ("LOTEd") Collins (in about, as you say, 2044) to actual Commissionings of SSN-AUKUS for Australia (in about 2054, if at all) presents an even a bleaker submarine capability gap.

With declining SSN availability for the USN I see no US policy window to export  Virginias to Australia. Rather USN Virginias may each have about 15-20 Aus sailors/officers and about 4 US Virginias will rotate at 3 to 4 month intervals at Fleet Base West (FBW). Meanwhile UK PWR2 reactor trouble prone Astutes will conduct 2 week propaganda tours at FBW every 18 months on average.

The 10 year Australian (Aus) Submarine capability gap will need to be filled by a combination of: USN Virginias, French Suffren SSNs (on their New Caledonia/Fr Polynesia tours?), Aus UUVs, Aus surface warships, Aus AUVs, Aus-US satellites, air refueled RAAF F-35A long strike aircraft with standoff missiles, and I foresee "Gilmour Booster-Hypersonix warhead IRBMs" in DF-26 like long range anti-shipping and land attack roles.

Pre-Palm Oil Plantation Fires in Indonesia AGAIN: Singapore Smoked Again

Australia's Government owned ABC News reports October 8, 2026 at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-08/indonesian-government-sued-over-worsening-wildfire/107237412

"Indonesian government faces Kalimantan [aka Borneo, three quarters of which is in Indonesia] wildfires lawsuit as haze blankets region"

"A group of civil society organisations in Indonesia's West Kalimantan province has filed a class action lawsuit against the national government over its handling of wildfires in the region.

Proceedings began yesterday in Pontianak, the capital of the region located on the island of Borneo.

According to the plaintiffs, the peatland fires and accompanying widespread haze are an almost annual occurrence and should have been anticipated.

Glorio Sanen, legal coordinator of the group Nafas Kalbar, which was formed to hold the government accountable, said the government's failure to act and negligence were responsible for the fires and its impact.

...Millions of people, including in neighbouring countries Singapore and Malaysia, have been dealing with toxic haze caused by the forest fires that started in July [2026].

Indonesia's Health Ministry has recorded at least 175,000 respiratory infection cases linked to fires since August.

According to the official data, more than 200 fire spots are still burning, with the wet season in most parts of Indonesia not expected to arrive until November [2026].

...fires more easily spread across peatlands damaged and dried out as a result of practices such as monoculture planting of palm oil.

...Plantation owners and traditional farmers often start fires to clear land, according to the National Police Criminal Investigation Agency's special crimes unit.

Investigations into possible corporate involvement in lighting the fires is underway, with charges carrying possible prison sentences of up to 15 years.

Environmental groups said the conversion of peatlands into oil palm plantations in Kalimantan was one of the causes of wildfires. (Reuters: Willy Kurniawan via ABC)
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..."If we're asking law enforcement authorities to enforce the law on forest and land fires in a transparent and fair manner, how could they object to that?"...MORE

Comment

It is possible that landowner corruption is hindering the high standard of Indonesian legal processes concerning pre-Palm Oil Plantation clearances that use fire.

Australia a Role Model For Upgraded Japanese Security Intelligence: AUKUS

Pete Comment

For a country, like Japan, to join an alliance, like AUKUS, that handles high-end Top Secret material, a country needs a robust, integrated and coordinated security-intelligence structure. It must include strong counter-intelligence culture and liaison with intelligence allies. This is particularly against penetration of the Japanese Government and defence companies (like Mitsubishi and Kawasaki shipyards) by North Korea, Russian and of course PRC-Chinese agents and cyber-espionage.

This is why Japan is upgrading its security intelligence analysis and collection coordination.

Press Article

North Asia correspondent Natalie Whiting and Akane Saiki (in Tokyo) for Australia's government owned ABC News report October 5, 2026 at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-05/japan-builds-spy-agency-as-china-tensions-escalate/107220738

"Japan builds spy agency 'with the utmost urgency' as tensions with China escalate

By North Asia correspondent Natalie Whiting and Akane Saiki in Tokyo

• Topic:Espionage

Posted 14m ago14 minutes ago

Takaichi Sanae says establishing a Japanese spy agency is "a matter of the utmost urgency". (Reuters: Edward Grattan)

In short:

Japan's plans for a new espionage agency, prompted by increasing concerns about countries such as China, are gathering momentum.

Japan's prime minister says strengthening intelligence capabilities is "a matter of the utmost urgency".

What's next?

Japan "really wants" to join AUKUS, according to a leading Tokyo academic, who says Australia has been a "good" role model for many years.

Link copied

Japan may soon have its own "CIA", as it works to establish its first centralised network of intelligence operations since World War II.

Plans for a new espionage agency have been prompted by increasing concerns about military build-up in countries such as China and threats of foreign interference.

Japan's current intelligence system is fragmented, with police, defence and foreign affairs departments all gathering information, but not always sharing it across agencies.

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said strengthening intelligence capabilities was "a matter of the utmost urgency", given geopolitical shifts across the region.

"We are seeing the military build-up of China and North Korea, as well as strengthened cooperation between China and Russia, and between Russia and North Korea,"

she said.

Japan holds military drills every New Year at Narashino exercise field, east of Tokyo. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)

Ms Takaichi also raised concerns about a rise in "the unauthorised leakage of cutting-edge technology involving foreign intelligence agents", cyber attacks on the public and private sectors, and disinformation campaigns "aimed at manipulating public opinion to favour a particular country".

She recently met with a newly formed expert panel tasked with helping create a long-term intelligence strategy.

Japan considers its own CIA

Osawa Jun, a panel member and senior research fellow at the Nakasone Peace Institute, told the ABC the old system had "failed to ensure that the nation as a whole carried out intelligence gathering and analysis in a properly coordinated manner".

Already this year, a new overarching security council headed by the prime minister has been established, along with a National Intelligence Bureau.

Japan's increased defence spending and its ties to the US have raised concerns in China. (Reuters: Kylie Cooper)

Next, the government is looking at setting up an independent foreign intelligence agency, which will be similar to America's CIA.

"If we are to possess intelligence capabilities truly on a par with those of the US or the [United Kingdom], it will be necessary to gather intelligence abroad," Mr Osawa said.

"Conceptually, this would be akin to the world of the CIA or Britain's 007."

The intelligence reforms will bring Japan in line with other major countries and they come amid a broader expansion of the nation's defence capabilities. 

What are the challenges?

Takaichi Sanae addresses the Self-Defense Forces Senior Commanders' Conference in Tokyo last month. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)

The aim is to establish a foreign intelligence agency by early 2028, according to a policy document prepared by the country's ruling party, and for the agency to "maximise the effective use of limited human resources and be operational immediately after establishment".

Personnel will not be the only issue, with legal and structural changes also needed to facilitate the intelligence work and better protect the country against foreign espionage, to which it is currently vulnerable.

"There are still significant challenges ahead,"

Mr Osawa said.

"[Those include] enacting laws to enable concrete intelligence-gathering and countermeasures, establishing the necessary government agencies, and training personnel capable of carrying out these tasks."

Ensuring public support and establishing democratic oversight are also a focus for the independent panel.

Japan participated in the Rim of the Pacific military exercises in Hawaii in 2024. (Reuters: Marco Garcia)

But one of Japan's pre-eminent former national security chiefs, Kitamura Shigeru, said the country did "not have to start from zero" and should build on its existing international counterterrorism capabilities.

Mr Kitamura said Japan needed to ensure it limited its focus to gathering information and did not engage in political manipulation or subversion overseas.

"In constructing a new intelligence architecture, we should not simply import every function of intelligence services elsewhere,"

he said.

While pushing for controls, he described secret intelligence gathering as an "indispensable function" of a modern country.

"We cannot depend entirely upon information supplied by others, however close our allies and partners may be," he said.

Australia has been a 'good model'

Japan has examined intelligence systems and foreign interference laws in countries including the US, the UK, France, and Australia.

Tomohiko Satake, from the Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, said Australia had been a "good model for Japan for many years".

"In terms of the scale of the country, we can't be America, of course, we can't be maybe the UK, but we could be Australia, in terms of our intelligence ability," he said.

"I think there are many things Australia can cooperate with Japan on in terms of intelligence capabilities and, most importantly, how to establish that intelligence community itself."

He also pointed to Australia's clearance system, which vets who has access to intelligence and governs how it is shared, as an area for Japan to consider.

Increased intelligence sharing with Australia predicted

The changes are expected to increase Japan's intelligence sharing and security relationships with its partners in the West.

Ghost Robotics Vision 60 robotic dogs take part in a New Year Japanese military drill. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)

During a visit to Australia in May, Ms Takaichi and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese issued a joint statement on enhanced defence and security cooperation, which included "increased information and intelligence cooperation".

Professor Satake said Japan "really wants" to join AUKUS, a trilateral military technology partnership between Australia, the UK, and the United States.

Australia is also seen as "gateway for Japan to be closer to Five Eyes", a powerful intelligence-sharing alliance made up of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US.

Takaichi Sanae and Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi are forging ahead with significant increases to defence spending. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Pool)

Jun Osawa said while joining Five Eyes would be difficult for Japan, he did think it could "become a partner close to the Five Eyes, drawing on Japan's unique intelligence".

"In particular, when it comes to analysis regarding China, there are quite a few areas where Japan is superior," he said.

"I believe it is important to build a relationship where we can properly exchange that sort of information."

What does China think?

Beijing has criticised what it describes as Japan's "remilitarisation". (Getty Images: Manuel Orbegozo/Bloomberg )

China has criticised Japan's intelligence reforms, describing them as "another negative move in its domestic and external security policies".

Relations between the countries have been at a historic low since Ms Takaichi said an attack on Taiwan could potentially trigger a military response from Japan. Beijing has also been outspoken about what it calls Japan's "remilitarisation".

"Japan's intelligence agencies historically paved the way for its full-scale pursuit of militarism and the launch of wars of aggression," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said after the establishment of Japan's new National Intelligence Bureau.

She accused Japan of "threatening regional peace and stability and raising widespread concerns among the international community"."