Australian Submarine Agency in Denial, Aus Sub Future Bleak, US & UK Rooted

The Collins RAN submarine service crews are still suffering long term engine reliability problems and shallow diving depths.

Meanwhile big money is going to the political spin doctors of the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA). Pretty website :).

The future Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) will provides A$2+ Billion per submarine with deeper maintenance than usual and the regular, standard software upgrades (all misinformed as "BRAND NEW LOTE"). Note Australia's big project tradition to take twice as long at 3 times the price to do anything. No hoped for LOTE replacement of the last operating Australian only Garden Island-Hedemora submarine diesels with modern, upgradable MTU 4000s. In connection to not upgrading diesels, see effectively an ASA Brief that desperately hopes for RAN Virginias in the 2030s so the LOTE will make sense. The LOTE, at Osborne shipyard in South Australia, is all about buying votes with Federal Government 10s  $Billions in South Australia.

No LOTE replacement of Captain only view hull penetrating/hull weakening periscopes. No whole command team can view non-penetrating optronic masts. See another effectively ASA Brief on this.

Many Aussie $Billions are being thrown at AUKUS Incorporated, especially the:

-  US highly profitable GD-EB and HII.

The US is suffering from:
-  worsening labor shortages
-  slower builds of subs (especially future larger Virginia Block Vs)
-  at higher prices
-  crippling Virginia maintenance delays
-  all Los Angeles class SSNs will be retired by the mid 2030s even those with life extensions
-  emergency extension of existing Ohio SSBN usage years
-  connected with increasing pressure to speed the (years behind schedule) higher priority Columbia SSBN construction (instead of Virginia construction) now through to 2041.

All the above meaning a rapidly worsening SSN shortage for the USN. Commissioning rates count the most, not submarines "ordered" or "cut steel".

Virginias for the RAN are contingent on a massive IMPROVEMENT (turnaround) in Virginia construction rates. These rates are getting worse, not better.

and

UK (in worse shape than US by every measure (labour force shortages, slower build times, at higher prices, acute Astute/Vanguard maintenance delays mainly due to defective PWR2 submarine reactors).

Little Australia, risking its whole defence budget is failing to provide buoyancy
 to the AUKUS, US and UK submarine calamity.

First USN Virginia To Rotate To Australia MAY be USS Colorado, late 2027

The Australian Submarine Agency has produced a report heavy with political spin and light on submarine technical substance - of October 27, 2026 at https://www.asa.gov.au/news-hub/first-us-submarine-assigned-srf-west 

Basically the US predicts that the first SSN to rotate (for 3 months?) to Australia's Fleet Base West under AUKUS, will likely be USS Colorado (SSN-788) in late 2027. Its a 10-year-old Block III Virginia-class. 

As the Virginias have chronic maintenance queuing problems, and Trump/Hegseth's wars may divert Colorado beforehand, the predictive announcement is more about placating Australian politicians and the RAN, than a sure thing.

UK RN's Submarine Crisis Deepens (Australia STILL Enthusiastic)

"The UK’s High North [referred to below] spans the Greater Arctic and the North Atlantic, including the critical Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) Gap, where the UK views itself as a strategic "nearest neighbour" rather than a direct Arctic state. [1, 2, 3]"

George Allison for the UK Defence Journal ("ukdj") reports October 22, 2026 at https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/committee-questions-whether-attack-submarines-put-to-sea/

"Evidence of low availability among destroyers, frigates and attack submarines raises serious questions about whether Britain can meet its High North commitments before new capabilities enter service, according to a report by the [UK House of Commons] Defence Committee.

The committee, chaired by Tan Dhesi, the Labour member for Slough, records reporting that all five of the Astute class nuclear attack submarines then in service had recently been tied up in dockyards at the same time, with none deployed.

[same ukdj article reports]...Professor David Blagden of the University of Exeter told the committee: “[i]t was reported in the media quite recently that a French SSN [attack submarine] had been seen in Faslane around the time that one of [our] SSBNs sailed on its patrol… [i]s this the French now doing ‘delousing’ for a UK nuclear deterrent submarine going on patrol? Is that great alliance solidarity or is it, ‘Oh my god, we can’t get one of our own SSNs to sea to do one of the highest missions?'”

Delousing is the activity in which an attack submarine sanitises the waters around a ballistic missile submarine to ensure it is not being tracked or tailed by an adversary as it leaves on or returns from a deterrent patrol.

The Rt Hon the Lord Case, chair of Team Barrow, told the committee in November 2025 that the government is saying to the defence industry “[p]lease, how quickly can you build our nuclear submarines for us? We are having to make up for decades of neglect.”

[same ukdj article reports]....Retired Rear Admiral Philip Mathias, a former Director of Nuclear Policy at the Ministry of Defence, said in December 2025 that one consequence of a lack of investment in the submarine fleet was that the duration of patrols for Vanguard class crews, which were seventy days during the Cold War, were now more than two hundred days, and that there was a shockingly low availability of submarines to counter the Russian threat in the High North..."

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Why were all five Astutes unavailable?

Brandon Weichert at 19fortyfive on October 23, 2026 at https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/10/all-5-of-britains-astute-class-attack-submarines-were-tied-up-in-june-and-the-reason-is-not-the-submarines-britain-has-2-yards-that-can-work-on-a-nuclear-boat-and-the-missile-subs-go-first/ explained:

"Summary and Key Points: Britain’s five Astute-class nuclear attack submarines were all in port in June [2026], and Brandon Weichert argues the cause is a shipyard crisis: only two nuclear-certified yards and a mandate that puts the Vanguard missile submarines first. HMS Ambush has not sailed since 2022 and is being stripped for parts. HMS Agamemnon, launched in 2024, awaits sea trials, and HMS Achilles sits unfinished. Construction of the SSN-AUKUS [Australia happy with technically unreliable UK?] replacement is due ["cut steel" political mythology] to begin in 2027."

On October 27, 2026 (a day after my ["cut steel" political mythology] comment that I made above on October 26, 2026) this author subsequently concurred.

Pete Comment
So the UK's four Vanguard SSBNs get priority for long and shorter term maintenance especially their faulty PWR2 reactor piping arrangements. The UK's five often unavailable Astutes, also with the same faulty reactor arrangements, (see Wiki) are repaired later, if at all.

Australia's Ghost Shark has teeth!

G'day:

While Pete and I are usually rather doom and gloom about anything regarding Australia's underwater capabilities, one very bright spark is the full-rate production of the Ghost Shark XL-AUV (XtraLarge Autonomous Underwater Vehicle aka XLUUV),

In prelude to a Ghost Shark unit appearing in the AUKUS Pillar II Maritime Big Play Pacific demonstration off San Diego, Australia showed off some of the payload integrated into the AUV for this demonstration.

Ghost Shark's (and Bluebottle's - see below) purchase prices, operations and remote manpower support are likely to be vastly cheaper than manned conventional, or (particularly) nuclear powered, submarines.

This Ghost Shark AUV shows two open side mission bays, alongside a display of Anduril Altuis UAVs and a Rhinemetall Asteria smart sea mine. (photo: Australian Department of Defence)
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Two weapons systems were showcased:

-  the Anduril Altuis (UAV) loitering munition, which will launch from a 'pop-up' twelve-stack launcher built into the Ghost Shark's deck, and

-  a Rhinemetall Asteria smart multi-influence sea mine, which should fit in the Ghost Sharks side bays. 

While "Ghost Shark has teeth now." - @PatConroy1 (his Wiki profile) Australia's Minister for Defence Industry. The @ausgov and @Australian_Navy confirmed the payloads the Ghost Shark extra-large autonomous submarine carries: sea mines, logistics caches and air-launched effects for ISR and strike. Ghost Sharks are rolling off the production line. Payload testing is active.

— Anduril Industries (@anduriltech) October 21, 2026

The Asteria mine has a diameter of 530mm and a length of up to 3150mm. This could imply that the Ghost Shark can accommodate a lightweight (or is that  "middleweight"?) ASW torpedo, such as the MU90 Impact that is in RAN service. 

Shawn Comment

Learning some of the capabilities of Ghost Shark, and the Bluebottle USV (see photo below) to receive an "acoustic intelligence payload", has alleviated some of my fears regarding the RAN's ability to detect potential underwater threats deep in the Indian, Southern and Pacific Oceans. The Bluebottle  (wiki file) may not have a weapon package, but it will enable persistent subsea ISR monitoring. 

Ocius Bluebottle (photo: Ocius)
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AFP Close-In Protection: Attack on Australian Dr Helen Haines MP

Re: Attack on Australian Federal politician Dr Helen Haines MP

(Dr Haines has now lost both of her legs). Tragically Dr Haines may still die, from infection in combination with "blood poisoning". 

From OPEN SOURCE AI: 

"The Australian Federal Police (AFP) Close Personal Protection (CPP) squad provides specialized, high-intensity physical security and risk assessment for Australia's key leaders, including the Prime Minister, Governor-General, visiting foreign dignitaries,

and federal parliamentarians. [1, 2, 3] [Pete's OPEN SOURCE calculations: Bodyguards needed just for Federal Parliamentarians, minimum 8 officers (dividing up 24/7 protection) x 226 (76 senators and 150 House of Reps) = 1,808 rounding up, to 2,000+ officers (adding in support, coordination, trainers and supervisors)]

Core Roles and Functions

• Full-Time Protection: Delivers 24/7 dedicated security details for high-office holders and critical national figures. [1]
• Event-Based Protection: Assesses and manages security risks at major domestic and international political or public events. [1, 2]
• Liaison & Threat Mitigation: Coordinates closely with state police and international agencies to evaluate and respond to real-time security threats. [1, 2]
• Specialist Units: Collaborates with the AFP's National Security Investigations Teams and tactical response capabilities to counter politically motivated violence. [1, 2]

Current Operational Context

• Rising Threats: According to AFP reporting, threats, harassment, and offensive communications directed at federal parliamentarians have surged past 1,067 reported incidents in recent cycles. [1]
• Workload Pressures: The Australian Federal Police Association (AFPA) has raised concerns that CPP officers are frequently subjected to extreme overtime and high-stress operational demands amid escalating political polarization. [1, 2]"

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Below is a published book on the around 10,000 person US Secret Service (among other duties it protects US Government politicians and other VIPs (hosted by the US):

[Amazon Kindle edition A$12.99] "In the President's Secret Service: Behind the Scenes with Agents in the Line of Fire and the Presidents They Protect"

by Ronald Kessler 

"[Blurb] After conducting exclusive interviews with more than one hundred current and former Secret Service agents, bestselling author and award-winning reporter Ronald Kessler reveals their secrets for the first time. 
Never before has a journalist penetrated the wall of secrecy that surrounds the U.S. Secret Service, that elite corps of agents who pledge to take a bullet to protect the president and his family. Kessler portrays the dangers that agents face and how they carry out their missions--from how they are trained to how they spot and assess potential threats. With fly-on-the-wall perspective, he captures the drama and tension that characterize agents’ lives and reveals what they have seen, providing startling, previously untold stories about the presidents, from John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson to George W. Bush and Barack Obama, as well as about their families, Cabinet officers, and White House aides."

Comments on the relative value of human life, including someone's political importance, will not be accepted. Also note this is a national security monitored website.

My "War on Terror" + Stuxnet Comments "For Your Eyes Only"

Based exclusively on my Open Source reading (see my "Favourite books") is the following.

AI surveillance tools were partly developed by US, Russian and Chinese "National Security Agencies" in their joint War on Islamist Terror. AI was/is tightly integrated with their armed services.

AI goes further back than most people think eg. the US-Israeli multi-million lines of code Stuxnet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet) Iranian nuclear program wreck-ware extends back to 2009 (if not earlier). Stuxnet escaped its anti-Iran focus by the 2010s and began to attack unintended Western and Russian networks - with an international joint Western and Russian effort eg, Kaspersky Lab finally combatting Stuxnet's spill over.

These things continue to happen in intended? or untended? ways. We only see the US (massive AI) corporate face of what continues to be a heavily civilian and military intelligence reliant software world. Many middle level US AI company experts received/receive their higher level training while they worked/work for US civilian and military intelligence.