October 27, 2026

First USN Virginia To Rotate To Australia MAY be USS Colorado, late 2027

The Australian Submarine Agency has produced a report heavy with political spin and light on submarine technical substance - of October 27, 2026 at https://www.asa.gov.au/news-hub/first-us-submarine-assigned-srf-west 

Basically the US predicts that the first SSN to rotate (for 3 months?) to Australia's Fleet Base West under AUKUS, will likely be
USS Colorado (SSN-788) in late 2027. Its a 10-year-old Block III Virginia-class. 

As the Virginias have chronic maintenance queuing problems, and Trump/Hegseth's wars may divert Colorado beforehand, the predictive announcement is more about placating Australian politicians and the RAN, than a sure thing.

October 26, 2026

UK RN's Submarine Crisis Deepens (Australia STILL Enthusiastic)

"The UK’s High North [referred to below] spans the Greater Arctic and the North Atlantic, including the critical Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) Gap, where the UK views itself as a strategic "nearest neighbour" rather than a direct Arctic state. [1, 2, 3]"


"Evidence of low availability among destroyers, frigates and attack submarines raises serious questions about whether Britain can meet its High North commitments before new capabilities enter service, according to a report by the [UK House of Commons] Defence Committee.

The committee, chaired by Tan Dhesi, the Labour member for Slough, records reporting that all five of the Astute class nuclear attack submarines then in service had recently been tied up in dockyards at the same time, with none deployed.

[same 
ukdj article reports]...Professor David Blagden of the University of Exeter told the committee: “[i]t was reported in the media quite recently that a French SSN [attack submarine] had been seen in Faslane around the time that one of [our] SSBNs sailed on its patrol… [i]s this the French now doing ‘delousing’ for a UK nuclear deterrent submarine going on patrol? Is that great alliance solidarity or is it, ‘Oh my god, we can’t get one of our own SSNs to sea to do one of the highest missions?'”

Delousing is the activity in which an attack submarine sanitises the waters around a ballistic missile submarine to ensure it is not being tracked or tailed by an adversary as it leaves on or returns from a deterrent patrol.

The Rt Hon the Lord Case, chair of Team Barrow, told the committee in November 2025 that the government is saying to the defence industry “[p]lease, how quickly can you build our nuclear submarines for us? We are having to make up for decades of neglect.”

[same ukdj article reports]....Retired Rear Admiral Philip Mathias, a former Director of Nuclear Policy at the Ministry of Defence, said in December 2025 that one consequence of a lack of investment in the submarine fleet was that the duration of patrols for Vanguard class crews, which were seventy days during the Cold War, were now more than two hundred days, and that there was a shockingly low availability of submarines to counter the Russian threat in the High North..."

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Why were all five Astutes unavailable?

Brandon Weichert at 19fortyfive on October 23, 2026 at https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/10/all-5-of-britains-astute-class-attack-submarines-were-tied-up-in-june-and-the-reason-is-not-the-submarines-britain-has-2-yards-that-can-work-on-a-nuclear-boat-and-the-missile-subs-go-first/ explained:

"Summary and Key Points: Britain’s five Astute-class nuclear attack submarines were all in port in June [2026], and Brandon Weichert argues the cause is a shipyard crisis: only two nuclear-certified yards and a mandate that puts the Vanguard missile submarines first. HMS Ambush has not sailed since 2022 and is being stripped for parts. HMS Agamemnon, launched in 2024, awaits sea trials, and HMS Achilles sits unfinished. Construction of the SSN-AUKUS [Australia happy with technically unreliable UK?] replacement is due ["cut steel" political mythology] to begin in 2027."

On October 27, 2026 (a day after my ["cut steel" political mythology] comment that I made above on October 26, 2026) this author subsequently concurred.

Pete Comment
So the UK's four Vanguard SSBNs get priority for long and shorter term maintenance especially their faulty PWR2 reactor piping arrangements. The UK's five often unavailable Astutes, also with the same faulty reactor arrangements, (see Wiki) are repaired later, if at all.

October 22, 2026

Australia's Ghost Shark has teeth!

G'day:

While Pete and I are usually rather doom and gloom about anything regarding Australia's underwater capabilities, one very bright spark is the full-rate production of the Ghost Shark XL-AUV (XtraLarge Autonomous Underwater Vehicle aka XLUUV),

In prelude to a Ghost Shark unit appearing in the AUKUS Pillar II Maritime Big Play Pacific demonstration off San Diego, Australia showed off some of the payload integrated into the AUV for this demonstration.

Ghost Shark's (and Bluebottle's - see below) purchase prices, operations and remote manpower support are likely to be vastly cheaper than manned conventional, or (particularly) nuclear powered, submarines.



This Ghost Shark AUV shows two open side mission bays, alongside a display of Anduril Altuis UAVs and a Rhinemetall Asteria smart sea mine. (photo: Australian Department of Defence)
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Two weapons systems were showcased:

-  the Anduril Altuis (UAV) loitering munition, which will launch from a 'pop-up' twelve-stack launcher built into the Ghost Shark's deck, and

-  a Rhinemetall Asteria smart multi-influence sea mine, which should fit in
 the Ghost Sharks side bays. 

While "Ghost Shark has teeth now." - @PatConroy1 (his Wiki profile) Australia's Minister for Defence Industry. The @ausgov and @Australian_Navy confirmed the payloads the Ghost Shark extra-large autonomous submarine carries: sea mines, logistics caches and air-launched effects for ISR and strike. Ghost Sharks are rolling off the production line. Payload testing is active. The Asteria mine has a diameter of 530mm and a length of up to 3150mm. This could imply that the Ghost Shark can accommodate a lightweight (or is that  "middleweight"?) ASW torpedo, such as the MU90 Impact that is in RAN service. 

Shawn Comment

Learning some of the capabilities of Ghost Shark, and the Bluebottle USV (see photo below) to receive an "acoustic intelligence payload", has alleviated some of my fears regarding the RAN's ability to detect potential underwater threats deep in the Indian, Southern and Pacific Oceans. The Bluebottle  (wiki file) may not have a weapon package, but it will enable persistent subsea ISR monitoring. 



Ocius Bluebottle (photo: Ocius)
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October 21, 2026

AFP Close-In Protection: Attack on Australian Dr Helen Haines MP

Re: Attack on Australian Federal politician Dr Helen Haines MP

(Dr Haines has now lost both of her legs). Tragically Dr Haines may still die, from infection in combination with "blood poisoning". 

From OPEN SOURCE AI: 

"The Australian Federal Police (AFP) Close Personal Protection (CPP) squad provides specialized, high-intensity physical security and risk assessment for Australia's key leaders, including the Prime Minister, Governor-General, visiting foreign dignitaries,

and federal parliamentarians
. [1, 2, 3] [Pete's OPEN SOURCE calculations: Bodyguards needed just for Federal Parliamentarians, minimum 8 officers (dividing up 24/7 protection) x 226 (76 senators and 150 House of Reps) = 1,808 rounding up, to 2,000+ officers (adding in support, coordination, trainers and supervisors)]
Core Roles and Functions
  • Full-Time Protection: Delivers 24/7 dedicated security details for high-office holders and critical national figures. [1]
  • Event-Based Protection: Assesses and manages security risks at major domestic and international political or public events. [1, 2]
  • Liaison & Threat Mitigation: Coordinates closely with state police and international agencies to evaluate and respond to real-time security threats. [1, 2]
  • Specialist Units: Collaborates with the AFP's National Security Investigations Teams and tactical response capabilities to counter politically motivated violence. [1, 2]
Current Operational Context
  • Rising Threats: According to AFP reporting, threats, harassment, and offensive communications directed at federal parliamentarians have surged past 1,067 reported incidents in recent cycles. [1]
  • Workload Pressures: The Australian Federal Police Association (AFPA) has raised concerns that CPP officers are frequently subjected to extreme overtime and high-stress operational demands amid escalating political polarization. [1, 2]"
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Below is a published book on the around 10,000 person US Secret Service (among other duties it protects US Government politicians and other VIPs (hosted by the US):

[Amazon Kindle edition A$12.99] "In the President's Secret Service: Behind the Scenes with Agents in the Line of Fire and the Presidents They Protect"

October 19, 2026

My "War on Terror" + Stuxnet Comments "For Your Eyes Only"

Based exclusively on my Open Source reading (see my "Favourite books") is the following.

AI 
surveillance tools were partly developed by US, Russian and Chinese "National Security Agencies" in their joint War on Islamist Terror. AI was/is tightly integrated with their armed services.

AI goes further back than most people think eg. the US-Israeli multi-million lines of code Stuxnet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet) Iranian nuclear program wreck-ware extends back to 2009 (if not earlier). Stuxnet escaped its anti-Iran focus by the 2010s and began to attack unintended Western and Russian networks - with an international joint Western and Russian effort eg, Kaspersky Lab finally combatting Stuxnet's spill over.

These things continue to happen in intended? or untended? ways. We only see the US (massive AI) corporate face of what continues to be a heavily civilian and military intelligence reliant software world. Many middle level US AI company experts received/receive their higher level training while they worked/work for US civilian and military intelligence.


New Indonesian Weapon Buys: Europe, Turkey Preferred (at Oct 2026)

AI overview as at October 19, 2026 with some additional Wikipedia links and Pete's comments in square bolded [...] brackets.

"Indonesia is rapidly modernizing its military under President Prabowo Subianto through major multi-billion-dollar acquisitions spanning fighter jets, warships, submarines, and precision miissiles. [1, 2]

[Pete comment - Subianto's military career [early start in Kopassus and already a General in 1985,
 goes right back to the Suharto era (being Suharto's son-in-law). But Subianto, now a centrist President, has not turned into the right-wing, coup-inciting, dictator many feared would happen.

Indonesia continues its pattern of buying weapons from many countries: especially France, Turkey, Italy, Russo-Indian BrahMos, maybe from China - maybe to extract favourable offers from the US. The list below does not count the many other orders by Indonesia, arrived (eg. from Russia) or on their way from many other countries: eg. aircraft  ships  103 Leopard 2s already here.

Indonesia's weapons are mainly focussed on internal security and regional competitors. Unlike Australia (with help from the US) Indonesia has no pretensions to get in a medium level fight against China.].

Air Force & Aviation
  • Dassault Rafale F4 Fighters (France): Indonesia ordered [high end 4.5 Generation] 42 Rafale jets; the first six units (four single-seats and two double-seats) were formally commissioned into Air Squadron 12 at Halim Perdanakusuma Air Base in May 2026, equipped with MBDA Meteor missiles and AASM Hammer guided bombs. [1, 2]


Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) national combat aircraft KAAN [see TAI website - in English - takes a while to download]
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  • TAI KAAN Stealth Fighters (Turkey): Contracted for 48 fifth-generation KAAN fighter jets from Turkish Aerospace Industries with planned deliveries starting in 2032. [1, 2] [Pete comment - maybe 5th Gen but without the strike package (intelligence/sensor backup) provided to US and Israeli 5th Gen].
  • J-10CE Fighters (China): [maybe 42 in future - a complex non-aligned gambit] Entered an agreement for Chinese J-10CE fighter jets to help fill immediate capacity gaps. [1, 2]
  • Support & Transport Aircraft: Inducted an Airbus A400M transport aircraft and four Falcon 8X transport aircraft. [1, 2]
Navy & Maritime Defense
  • KRI Sriwijaya Aircraft Carrier: Commissioned the former Italian aircraft carrier ITS Giuseppe Garibaldi as the KRI Sriwijaya, arriving at Tanjung Priok Port, Indonesia in September 2026. [1, 2] [43 years old since launch in Italy. Only 14,000 tonnes full load. Maybe vanity flagship [but better than Thailand's] in "response" to Australia's much larger Canberra-class LHD. Just helicopter air wing, to date, like the Canberras] 
  • BrahMos & Astra Missiles (India): Finalized a $630 million strategic defense pact with India to acquire BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles and Astra beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles for Sukhoi-30 integration. [1, 2] [A very dangerous Russian-Indian developed missile, depending on its flight profile.]
  • Italian PPA Warships & Frigates: Taken delivery of two Italian Offshore Patrol Vessels (PPA) and contracted for Turkish Istanbul-class [light] frigates as well as domestic [PT PAL built medium-large Red White-class frigates]. [1, 2]
  • [AI reports as at June 2026 Japan and Indonesia have initiated working-level discussions regarding the potential transfer of retired Japanese Navy Asagiri-class up to 5,000 tonne full load destroyers to the Indonesian Navy.]
  • Submarines: Building two Scorpene-class submarines locally with French technology transfer, alongside autonomous AI-driven unmanned submarines developed by state-owned PT PAL Indonesia. [1, 2] [may be commissioned by mid 2030s]. [see Shawn C's excellent SubMatt's article on this 2 x PT PAL Scorpene Evolved (EVO) 1,600-2,000 tonne build.]
Army & Ground Systems
  • KHAN Ballistic Missiles (Turkey): Deployed the Turkish-built Roketsan KHAN/Bora short-range ballistic missile system, giving the Indonesian Army a 300-kilometer strike range. [1, 2] [It is a puzzle what international targets  Indonesia would want to hit with a 300km missile. Perhaps one answer is: Australia has a wide variety of ballistic and cruise missile with a range greater than 300km.]
  • Anti-Drone & Air Defense: Received new domestic and foreign anti-drone mobile jammers ([domestically developed] Maung MV3 Mobile Jammer systems) and expanded ground-based air-defense radar systems. [1, 2]"