About subs, military/naval, missiles, nuclear weapons & politics. New Aussie subs have been just talk since 2009. Collins upgrades of partial help. UUVs help more. POTUS may cancel AUKUS Virginias in 2031 as the USN needs all SSNs to the 2040s. Australian Gov ignores US higher priority Columbia SSBNs (one/year being commissioned 2029-2041). Meaning no new Virginias 2030-41? Shawn C and Gessler are excellent authors. Pete.
For a country, like Japan, to join an alliance, like AUKUS, that handles high-end Top Secret material, a country needs a robust, integrated and coordinated security-intelligence structure. It must include strong counter-intelligence culture and liaison with intelligence allies. This is particularly against penetration of the Japanese Government and defence companies (like Mitsubishi and Kawasaki shipyards) by North Korea, Russian and of course PRC-Chinese agents and cyber-espionage.
This is why Japan is upgrading its security intelligence analysis and collection coordination.
Takaichi Sanae says establishing a Japanese spy agency is "a matter of the utmost urgency". (Reuters: Edward Grattan)
In short:
Japan's plans for a new espionage agency, prompted by increasing concerns about countries such as China, are gathering momentum.
Japan's prime minister says strengthening intelligence capabilities is "a matter of the utmost urgency".
What's next?
Japan "really wants" to join AUKUS, according to a leading Tokyo academic, who says Australia has been a "good" role model for many years.
Japan may soon have its own "CIA", as it works to establish its first centralised network of intelligence operations since World War II.
Plans for a new espionage agency have been prompted by increasing concerns about military build-up in countries such as China and threats of foreign interference.
Japan's current intelligence system is fragmented, with police, defence and foreign affairs departments all gathering information, but not always sharing it across agencies.
Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said strengthening intelligence capabilities was "a matter of the utmost urgency", given geopolitical shifts across the region.
"We are seeing the military build-up of China and North Korea, as well as strengthened cooperation between China and Russia, and between Russia and North Korea,"
she said.
Japan holds military drills every New Year at Narashino exercise field, east of Tokyo. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
Ms Takaichi also raised concerns about a rise in "the unauthorised leakage of cutting-edge technology involving foreign intelligence agents", cyber attacks on the public and private sectors, and disinformation campaigns "aimed at manipulating public opinion to favour a particular country".
She recently met with a newly formed expert panel tasked with helping create a long-term intelligence strategy.
Japan considers its own CIA
Osawa Jun, a panel member and senior research fellow at the Nakasone Peace Institute, told the ABC the old system had "failed to ensure that the nation as a whole carried out intelligence gathering and analysis in a properly coordinated manner".
Already this year, a new overarching security council headed by the prime minister has been established, along with a National Intelligence Bureau.
Japan's increased defence spending and its ties to the US have raised concerns in China. (Reuters: Kylie Cooper)
Next, the government is looking at setting up an independent foreign intelligence agency, which will be similar to America's CIA.
"If we are to possess intelligence capabilities truly on a par with those of the US or the [United Kingdom], it will be necessary to gather intelligence abroad," Mr Osawa said.
"Conceptually, this would be akin to the world of the CIA or Britain's 007."
Takaichi Sanae addresses the Self-Defense Forces Senior Commanders' Conference in Tokyo last month. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
The aim is to establish a foreign intelligence agency by early 2028, according to a policy document prepared by the country's ruling party, and for the agency to "maximise the effective use of limited human resources and be operational immediately after establishment".
Personnel will not be the only issue, with legal and structural changes also needed to facilitate the intelligence work and better protect the country against foreign espionage, to which it is currently vulnerable.
"There are still significant challenges ahead,"
Mr Osawa said.
"[Those include] enacting laws to enable concrete intelligence-gathering and countermeasures, establishing the necessary government agencies, and training personnel capable of carrying out these tasks."
Ensuring public support and establishing democratic oversight are also a focus for the independent panel.
Japan participated in the Rim of the Pacific military exercises in Hawaii in 2024. (Reuters: Marco Garcia)
But one of Japan's pre-eminent former national security chiefs, Kitamura Shigeru, said the country did "not have to start from zero" and should build on its existing international counterterrorism capabilities.
Mr Kitamura said Japan needed to ensure it limited its focus to gathering information and did not engage in political manipulation or subversion overseas.
"In constructing a new intelligence architecture, we should not simply import every function of intelligence services elsewhere,"
he said.
While pushing for controls, he described secret intelligence gathering as an "indispensable function" of a modern country.
"We cannot depend entirely upon information supplied by others, however close our allies and partners may be," he said.
Australia has been a 'good model'
Japan has examined intelligence systems and foreign interference laws in countries including the US, the UK, France, and Australia.
Tomohiko Satake, from the Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, said Australia had been a "good model for Japan for many years".
"In terms of the scale of the country, we can't be America, of course, we can't be maybe the UK, but we could be Australia, in terms of our intelligence ability," he said.
"I think there are many things Australia can cooperate with Japan on in terms of intelligence capabilities and, most importantly, how to establish that intelligence community itself."
Increased intelligence sharing with Australia predicted
The changes are expected to increase Japan's intelligence sharing and security relationships with its partners in the West.
Ghost Robotics Vision 60 robotic dogs take part in a New Year Japanese military drill. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
During a visit to Australia in May, Ms Takaichi and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese issued a joint statement on enhanced defence and security cooperation, which included "increased information and intelligence cooperation".
Professor Satake said Japan "really wants" to join AUKUS, a trilateral military technology partnership between Australia, the UK, and the United States.
Australia is also seen as "gateway for Japan to be closer to Five Eyes", a powerful intelligence-sharing alliance made up of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US.
Takaichi Sanae and Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi are forging ahead with significant increases to defence spending. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Pool)
Jun Osawa said while joining Five Eyes would be difficult for Japan, he did think it could "become a partner close to the Five Eyes, drawing on Japan's unique intelligence".
"In particular, when it comes to analysis regarding China, there are quite a few areas where Japan is superior," he said.
"I believe it is important to build a relationship where we can properly exchange that sort of information."
What does China think?
Beijing has criticised what it describes as Japan's "remilitarisation". (Getty Images: Manuel Orbegozo/Bloomberg )
China has criticised Japan's intelligence reforms, describing them as "another negative move in its domestic and external security policies".
Relations between the countries have been at a historic low since Ms Takaichi said an attack on Taiwan could potentially trigger a military response from Japan. Beijing has also been outspoken about what it calls Japan's "remilitarisation".
"Japan's intelligence agencies historically paved the way for its full-scale pursuit of militarism and the launch of wars of aggression," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said after the establishment of Japan's new National Intelligence Bureau.
She accused Japan of "threatening regional peace and stability and raising widespread concerns among the international community"."
The USN will face a crippling SSN shortage by 2040, cancelling AUKUS Pillar 1.
Firstly, what must be taken into account is the average rate of Los Angeles-class submarine retirements, which is 1.45 per yearsince retirements began in 1995. So the 18 active Los Angeles will all be retired in 12 years, ie. by 2038.
Secondly. average Virginia Block I to IV production has only been 1.2 per year during the whole production run from the early 2000s to the present. Larger Virginia Block Vs will only be produced at around 0.8 per year maximum.
Third and most importantly, the full rate production target for the 12 Columbia-class SSBNs is one commissioning per year from 2028 to 2040 inclusive. The Columbias are the USN's highest priority program as Columbias are America's most efficient and protected nuclear second strike weapon platform. The industrial effort to build one Columbia is equivalent to the effort to build 2.5 "standard Virginias" (Blocks I to IV). See page 49 "Submarine Construction:" at the Congressional Research Service's (CRS's) " Navy Virginia-Class Submarine Program and AUKUS Submarine (Pillar 1) Project: Background and Issues for Congress, Version 295" RL32418 of 01/26/2026 at https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/RL/PDF/RL32418/RL32418.295.pdf
Based on American industry's lack of success increasing submarine commissionings since the early 2000s - the US will need to curtail Virginia commissionings. This is in order to commission one Columbia per year during the Columbia production period (2028 to 2040).
"Recent major weapons acquisitions and defense deals across the Indo-Pacific region highlight a rapid buildup driven by countering regional strategic competition. [1, 2]
Cost & Timeline: Valued at roughly A$736 million (US$518 million), with deliveries anticipated by 2033.
Strategic Fit: Equips RAAF F-35As, Super Hornets, and [EA-18G Growlers] to counter long-range adversaries beyond visual range. [1, 2, 3]
Indonesia & India: BrahMos and Astra Missiles
Direct Answer: Indonesia signed a landmark defense deal to buy BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles and Astra air-to-air missiles from India.
Regional Context: Makes Indonesia the third regional operator of BrahMos (following the Philippines and Vietnam).
Capability: Integrates Indian Astra missiles onto Indonesian Sukhoi-30 fighter jets for advanced air superiority. [1, 2, 3]
Japan: Tomahawk Integration and Export Pivot
Direct Answer: Japan is operationally integrating long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles onto its Aegis destroyers.
Scope: Procuring up to 400 Tomahawks (Block IV and V) with a ~1,600 km strike range.
Policy Shift: Tokyo also lifted strict defense export caps to supply co-developed missiles and hardware to regional allies like the Philippines and Australia. [1, 2, 3]
Taiwan: Pending U.S. Arms Packages
Status: Up to $14 billion worth of U.S. mobile coastal defense, rocket systems, and strike drones remain heavily debated in Washington-Beijing diplomatic talks.
Priority: Focus centers heavily on asymmetric, anti-access capabilities to deter potential amphibious crossings. [1, 2, 3]
Explore a regional analysis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
Read the comprehensive report on Indo-Pacific Defense Forum. [1, 2]"