About subs, military/naval, missiles, nuclear weapons & enrichment; political issues. New Aussie subs have been just talk since 2009. The Collins LOTE 2028-2040? might help sub availability temporarily. UUVs help. POTUS 2031 may cancel AUKUS Virginias as USN needs all SSNs to the 2040s. Australian Gov ignoring higher priority US Columbia SSBN production is minimising Virginia production until 2043. Shawn C is an excellent author. Gessler is back.
Following the Japanese Ministry of Defense award of a contract to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) to build three upgraded Mogami-class (06FFM) under the Japanese FY2025 defense budget (see page 31), Australia immediately signed the “Mogami Memorandum” - the expected deal with the Japanese government for the first batch of three Upgraded Mogami-class frigates, the first of which is scheduled for delivery in December 2029.
Upgraded Mogami Model displayed by MHI at Indo Pacific 2025. Image: navalnews. ---
The following chart, provided by Navalnews.com to highlight the rise in cost for the upgraded Mogami, also indicates that FY2025 is the first year three hulls have been ordered. As an upgraded Mogami takes three years from hull laying to launch, this should indicate that the ‘third’ FY2025 hull is the first Australian ship to meet Australia's tight delivery timeline.
We have discussed the 06FFM when the class was selected by the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) to fulfil its General Purpose frigate program (project SEA 3000) in August 2025, but it is surprising how fast Australia is moving forward with this AUD$20-25 billion dollar program, with the remaining 8 hulls will be built at the Austal Henderson Australiafacility, now a very busy shipyard as Austal is ramping up for construction of eighteen Landing Craft Medium(LCM) and eight Damen LST1000 Landing Craft Heavy(LCH). All 18 LCMs are scheduled for delivery by 2032, while all LCH are to be delivered by 2038.
Austal will start the build programs for 8 landing craft heavy (LCH) (artwork above) and 18 landing craft medium (LCM) in 2026. Image: Austal ---
The urgency and speed at which the SEA 3000 project has moved is due to the Surface Fleet Review that the Australian government commissioned in 2023, where the failure of the Arafura OPV program (mainly due to changing specifications) and the delays and cost growth in the Hunter-class saw the Australian government slash both programs in early 2024. With the RAN’s workhorse Anzac-class frigates now approaching 30 years of age and due for retirement, a near Military off-the-shelf (MOTS) solution was sought - the first batch of Australian 06FFM frigates should be delivered with few changes - it was confirmed in November 2025 that they will be equipped with SeaRAM and NSM, and will likely use the RAN's standard CEAFAR AESA radar system.
Setting up the Henderson Precinct as a major military shipbuilding hub has major domestic political bonuses for the ruling Australian Labour Party (ALP), but with Japan relaxing military export rules, Australia has now positioned itself as a big military-industrial partner to Japan.
As a followup to Gessler’s - comments
of March 17, 2026 – my friend Gessler offline, on April 16, 2026, further explained the oil/gas situation in India:
"The situation in India is
fine at the moment, in fact it has gotten better in some areas.
Earlier, the government had
restricted commercial users (factories and such) to a liquid petroleum
gas (LPG)/liquid natural gas (LNG) quota of only 20% of
their average gas requirement, so as to ensure that household users (for
cooking mostly) get the maximum supply possible.
But now it seems India has succeeded
in tapping alternative sources of gas (US, Russia, others), and as a result the
quota for commercial users was first increased to 40%, and recently up
to 70% of their average requirement. This has happened without the
supply to households being effected so it appears the supply situation has
gotten somewhat better on the gas front. They're also encouraging more and more
people to switch to a piped natural gas (PNG) connection as LNG is not
as supply-limited as LPG due to sizeable domestic deposits of natural gas.
Regarding oil and its derivatives
(petrol, diesel), the situation was never as much of a concern as gas.
This is because many alternative sources exist and the large refinery industry
in India holds ample stocks itself. This is without even having to tap into the
Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which many countries have already released into
the market. But India hasn't felt the need to, yet. The prices of regular
petrol/diesel (barring some specialized, high-octane versions [like 97 to 99
RON -see reference to India ] used in expensive sports cars and the like) have remained at pre-war levels.
Although I suspect they might have to consider some increases if the situation
persists.
While the availability of Aviation
Turbine Fuel (ATF), aka jet fuel, remains assured (again, thanks to the local
refinery industry), the prices of it have increased. So flight tickets have
gotten costlier. The government has also increased the export tariffs on ATF so
as to ensure most of what is produced here remains here.
I hope the conflict is resolved
and the situation goes back to normal as soon as possible, but things look like
they could go either way."
Pete Comment - Russia and Iran
One reason India's situation has gotten better in some area is because on March 13, 2026, to help deal with the economic costs of the Iran war, the US temporarilylifted restrictionson the sale of Russian oil exports - with India a major customer.
As of April 2026, India has resumed importing Iranian oil for the first time
since May 2019, following a seven-year hiatus caused by US sanctions. Driven by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to regional conflict, India - the world's third-largest oil importer - is utilizing a temporary US sanctions waiver to secure energy, with tankers carrying Iranian crude to Indian ports.
Thursday, April 9th, 2026, brought an interesting BBC live coverage to my attention, featuring a media briefing by the UK Defence Secretary John Healey, where he disclosed that:
The UK tracked a recent Russian Navy submarine clandestine operation “in and around British Waters” for over a month. Three Russian submarines were highlighted: an Akula SSN and two “GUGI” spy submarines. The Akula trolled NATO defences to distract them away from the two spy submarines as they "spent time over critical infrastructure."
Healey reported "No evidence that there has been any damage" to cables and pipelines of UK subsea infrastructure.
Healey addressed President Putin directly, saying, “We see you, we see your activity over our underwater infrastructure. ”
(Wiki file) HMS St Albans returns to Devonport, UK, on April 2, 2026. (Image: Tom Leach for Navylookout.com). ---
The UK Royal Navy (RN) deployed: the Type 23 frigate HMS St Albans; the Tide-class tanker/support ship RFA Tidespring; and Merlin helicopters. While RAF P-8 Poseidon Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPAs) maintained 24/7 tracking. This was alongside NATO Allies, with Norway specifically mentioned.
Undersea cables (red) and oil/natural gas liquids (NGL) pipelines (purple) around the UK. (Graphic: BBC) ---
Following up on the UK Defence Secretary’s press briefing, the Barents Observer stated that the Royal Norwegian Navy participated with an ASW frigate, other warships and P-8 MPA, confirming that the covert operation was by Russia’s Main Directorate of Deep Sea Research (GUGI).
GUGI is a
secretive Russian naval unit focused on deep-sea operations, to map, monitor, and
potentially disrupt undersea infrastructure like cables and pipelines. Based
mainly in Olenya Bay (aka Olenya Guba) Northern Russia, it serves as a critical, high-priority asset for both
surveillance and potential sabotage in European waters.
Declassified satellite image of Olenya Bay. (Image: UK MOD) ---
GUGI was established in the 1960s. In the 21st century, GUGI became known in naval circles for operating Russia’s ‘special mission submarines" and intelligence ships, including the Yantar intelligence ship, the K-329 Belgorod and BS-64 Podmoskovye nuclear mothership submarines and the AS-31 Losharik deep-diving small nuclear research submarine.
Navylookout.com, in its coverage on this operation, specifically mentions BS-64Podmoskovye (wiki file) was reported by Norwegian OSINT sources to have left Olenya Bay in mid-February 2026 and returned to base sometime before April 8th. So BS-64 likely was one of the "GUGI submarines" mentioned in the briefing. While the second boat could have been the Losharik or a smaller Paltus-classnuclear mini-submarine (and see) deployed by BS-64.
The Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) has announced the arrival of the third Invincible-class (Type 218SG) submarine, RSS Illustrious. It sailed into Changi Naval Base on 10 April 2026, likely after it was delivered by the heavy transport ship, MV Rolldock Star, which is now anchored off Singapore.
Image: MINDEF Singapore. RSS Illustrious docks at Changi Naval Base ---
The fourth boat of the class, RSS Inimitable, was launched in April 2024, and is now completing its builder's trials in Kiel Germany. RSS Inimitable will make its own journey to Singapore before 2028.
The Invincible-class are the most modern submarines in South East Asia, and will remain so until Thailand takes delivery of its much delayed S26T in late 2028.
I originally expected the RSN to retire both Archer-class submarines with the delivery of the third and fourth Invincible-class, to keep Singapore’s operational submarine force at four advanced AIP boats. But with the follow-on order for two more Type-218SG, confirmed in May 2025, my original expectations have been torpedoed, as it is very clear that the RSN has settled on a future submarine fleet size of six boats.
While the Archer boats were originally built in the mid-1980s as the first two Vastergotland-class SSKs, both were decommissioned in 1997 after a decade of service. Sold to Singapore in 2005, they underwent an extensive refit and upgrade that included tropicalization, air conditioning and a Stirling AIP module, before commissioning into the RSN in 2011 and 2013.
While RSS Archer’s hull was built 40 years old, the boat has “only” been in commission in the RSN for 15 years, or 25 years if you include its HSwMS service. So it is quite conceivable that the RSN still regard the two Archers as capable and intend to keep them in service until the third batch of two Invincible boats is delivered by TKMS before 2034.
A [probable live test] at high altitude by ejection seat company Martin-Baker in a Meteor aircraft. (Press: Martin-Baker)
It is a live or die decision that no fighter pilot ever wants to make — and it needs to happen in milliseconds.
Pulling a jet's emergency ejection lever sets off a chain of unstoppable events.
In an instant, rocket motors under the seat ignite, blasting the crew into the air with up to 20 gs (gravitational force of Earth).
With his F-15 fighter jet plummeting towards the Atlantic Ocean at supersonic speeds [on April 18, 1995] it was retired US Air Force Captain Brian Udell's last resort.
"When I ejected, I got out with a third of a second to spare," he told the ABC.
"If I waited one-third of a second longer to pull the handle, I would have impacted the water still in my seat."
Brian Udell (right), while serving in the US Air Force in the 1990s. (Supplied)
Ejecting from a fighter jet is a decision air force personnel constantly prepare for.
They spend years training the body and mind to withstand and respond to immediate, violent trauma — and the ejection is only the start.
Early in the US war in Iran, six American aircrew safely ejected from three F-15E Strike Eagles that were mistakenly struck by Kuwaiti air defences.
Wreckage is shown at what Iran's state TV is claiming as the site of a downed American aircraft. (Reuters: Social media via Sepahnews)
After experiencing one of the fastest known fighter jet ejections in history, Captain Udell describes what the aircrew could have gone throughwhen they did the same in Iran a week ago.
And the "I am now an animal" mentality needed to survive.
The moment of ejection
Captain Udell was 31 years old when his jet malfunctioned during a training flight off the coast of North Carolina [on April 18] 1995].
He was travelling at about 3,000 metres with speeds pushing above 1,000 kilometres per hour when he gave the command to "bail out! bail out! bail out!"
The US Air Force testing an ejection for a new trainer jet in 2021. (US Air Force media)
"I distinctly remember pulling the handles," Captain Udell said.
"I remember a flash of light behind me that lit up the inside of the cockpit."
Within 0.15–0.2 seconds,the ejection handle triggers the jet's transparent canopy overhead to blow off.
Then a series of explosions shoots the seats along a rail, before a solid fuel rocket engine ignites, thrusting the crew into the air.
"There's a series of pyrotechnic sequencers that fire in rapid succession, and each one is greater than the next," Captain Udell said.
"It's designed to do this, because if the main catapult fired immediately, it would crush your spine."
Captain Udell was stationed at the Seymour Johnson Air Force Base at the time of the incident. (Supplied)
G-force spinal injuries
The crew are ejected moments apart, and launched upward to ensure enough altitude for a parachute to deploy safely.
Depending on the type of jet and scenario, pilots can be subjected to g-forces equal to 20 times the force of Earth's gravity.
When Captain Udell was catapulted from his jet, it was travelling about 1,260 km/h.
He experienced forces so strong, he said scientists and engineers came to the hospital asking, "We want to see the guy who's not supposed to be alive."
Captain Udell's weapons systems officer Dennis White did not survive the ejection.
US Air Force tests fighter jet ejection. (US Defense Department: Peter Ising)
Aaron Love, a retired US Air Force para-rescueman specifically trained to perform personnel recovery, said the intense acceleration placed extreme pressure on the spinal cord.
"It's a joke in the fighter community that an ejection makes you about three inches shorter," he told the ABC.
"There is huge spinal compression.
"There have been reports of pilots that had spinal compression that actually made them a little bit shorter."
Captain Udell broke both his legs during the violent ejection. (Supplied)
In terms of speed and force, Captain Udell said he was in a "much worse situation" than the US crew in Iran.
"When I ejected, I was supersonic. They were nowhere near that speed when they ejected," he said.
His mask ripped off, causing blood vessels in his face to burst.
"My head swelled to the size of a basketball, and my lips were puffed up like cucumbers," Captain Udell said.
He also experienced significant "flailing injuries", but they are less likely today with advances in ejection seat technology.
"That's where your arms and legs just fly out to the side and are exposed to the wind," Captain Udell said.
"Both legs were broken, my elbow was dislocated, and my shoulder was separated."
Captain Udell (right) in a photo taken in the 1990s before the incident. (Supplied)
In response to Captain Udell's incident, seats now have straps and webbing that automatically restrain a pilot's body into the safest position when the ejection lever is pulled.
Their limbs are tightly secured into a "cocoon bundle" until they slow down.
Seats today have about a 90 per cent success rate.
Preparing to hit the ground
The altitude and speed of the F-15 shot down in Iran is unknown.
He reportedly scaled a 2,100-metre ridge and hid in mountainous terrain to evade Iranian forces.
If the ejection went as planned, sensors in the seat would have indicated when the pilot's freefall had stabilised.
And when an altitude with breathable air had been reached, the main parachute would automatically deploy before the seat separated from the pilot.
Air Force members are given extensive training to deal with the physical and emotional impacts of an emergency ejection. (US Air Force: Bradley Hicks)
John Conway, defence analyst and managing director of consultants Felix Defence, said each phase of the ejection process still required a human response to control the 'fight or flight' instincts.
"The desired human response is a product of years, if not decades, of preparation and training," he said.
"Having the ability to think under extreme pressure is an important part of aircrew training, which is improving by the day as we better understand the workings of the human brain."
US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft used in war in Iran. (US Air Force via Reuters)
A crucial moment is preparing to land after ejection, checking all equipment is in place and the body is in the right position.
The parachutes were not large enough to create a soft landing, so hitting the ground was the equivalent of jumping off a two-storey building, Mr Conway said.
"So you've got to be in a good posture for landing as well," he told the ABC.
"If you get that wrong, then you can break ankles and break your legs.
"And if you land in a mountainous, rocky area and you break your leg, then all of a sudden you've got a bleeding problem to deal with as well."
'Animal' survival mode
A survival kit drops with the pilot during a jet ejection, and a beacon sends signals to help rescuers home in on a location.
Captain Udell was determined to survive to get home to his wife, who was pregnant with their first child. (Supplied)
While waiting to be rescued, Captain Udell said one of the most important factors was having the will to survive.
He endured nearly five hours in the freezing ocean with life-threatening injuries before being rescued.
"You can only survive about three seconds if you don't have the will to survive," he said.
"In my case, my wife was four months pregnant with our first child.
"That was my will to live."
The two-seater F-15 fighter jet struck last weekend was the first American plane downed by enemy fire in the US war with Iran.
The pilot was the first to be rescued on April 3, within a few hours of being ejected into "hostile Iranian territory", US Air Force General Dan Caine said.
Dude 44 Bravo, the missing US airman, hid out in a mountain crevice, bleeding from injuries when he scaled a craggy mountain trying to evade capture.
Isolated behind enemy lines, Iran reportedly placed a $US60,000 ($85,000) bounty on his head for anyone who found him alive.
Black Hawk helicopters were used during the operation to rescue the US airman in Iran's southern Isfahan province. (Supplied: Lockheed Martin)
Captain Udell, who also worked as a survival instructor in the military, said the airman would have needed to go into a primal mindset.
"You have to have a mentality of 'I am now an animal, and I am going to be the stealthiest, quietest thing that ever lived'," he said.
"I'm going to stay off of roads, I'm going to stay off of trails, I'm going to go into the most nastiest, grossest places that a normal thinking person would never dream of going."
And the main motivator to evade capture was to avoid becoming a prisoner of war, which would be far worse.
"You have to plant in your mind that the worst day as a survivor is a thousand times better than your best day as a captive,"
Captain Udell said.
US Air Force personnel are equipped with survival vests with water pouches, signalling devices and communication aids. (US Air Force: Erin Dunkleberger)
US special forces launched a high-stakes raid into Iran to rescue the injured airman, involving more than 170 aircraft and about 200 troops, Mr Trump said.
Mr Love, the retired para-rescueman, said many ejection rescues were "terrifying events".
And the conditions in Iran would have been some of the most dangerous rescuers had faced.
"Even the environment is trying to kill you," he said.
"Helicopters don't fly well when they're heavy or when they're hot, and Iran is both of those things.
"Everything about this mission really was the most dangerous that it could possibly be."
Aaron Love (right) was part of the elite special operations forces tasked with personnel recovery, and combat search and rescue. (Supplied)
More than 50 hours after being shot down, both of the F-15 crew members were back in friendly territory, according to the US military.
Captain Udell said even when rescue was imminent, you still needed to be "a survivor".
When he was being pulled from the ocean, he was still on high-alert.
"You don't stop surviving until you get to a hospital," he said.
"It was at that point, I laid back and shut my eyes and I just kind of relaxed and all that stress, all of that adrenaline, just washed away."
