October 5, 2026

Australia a Role Model For Upgraded Japanese Security Intelligence: AUKUS

Pete Comment

For a country, like Japan, to join an alliance, like AUKUS, that handles high-end Top Secret material, a country needs a robust, integrated and coordinated security-intelligence structure. It must include strong counter-intelligence culture and liaison with intelligence allies. This is particularly against penetration of the Japanese Government and defence companies (like Mitsubishi and Kawasaki shipyards) by North Korea, Russian and of course PRC-Chinese agents and cyber-espionage.

This is why Japan is upgrading its security intelligence analysis and collection coordination.

Press Article

North Asia correspondent Natalie Whiting and Akane Saiki (in Tokyo) for Australia's government owned ABC News report October 5, 2026 at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-05/japan-builds-spy-agency-as-china-tensions-escalate/107220738

"Japan builds spy agency 'with the utmost urgency' as tensions with China escalate

Posted
Takaichi Sanae, in a bright blue dress, speaks at a podium, surrounded on both sides by a Japanese and American flag.

Takaichi Sanae says establishing a Japanese spy agency is "a matter of the utmost urgency". (Reuters: Edward Grattan)

In short:

Japan's plans for a new espionage agency, prompted by increasing concerns about countries such as China, are gathering momentum.

Japan's prime minister says strengthening intelligence capabilities is "a matter of the utmost urgency".

What's next?

Japan "really wants" to join AUKUS, according to a leading Tokyo academic, who says Australia has been a "good" role model for many years.

October 1, 2026

The US will need to curtail Virginia production to commission a Columbia/year. AUKUS?

The USN will face a crippling SSN shortage by 2040, cancelling AUKUS Pillar 1.

Firstly, what must be taken into account is the average rate of Los Angeles-class submarine retirements, which is 1.45 per year since retirements began in 1995. So the 18 active Los Angeles will all be retired in 12 years, ie. by 2038.

Secondly. average Virginia Block I to IV production has only been 1.2 per year during the whole production run from the early 2000s to the present. Larger Virginia Block Vs will only be produced at around 0.8 per year maximum. 

Third and most importantly, the full rate production target for the 12 Columbia-class SSBNs is one commissioning per year from 2028 to 2040 inclusive. The Columbias are the USN's highest priority program as Columbias are America's most efficient and protected nuclear second strike weapon platform. The industrial effort to build one Columbia is equivalent to the effort to build 2.5 "standard Virginias" (Blocks I to IV). See page 49 "Submarine Construction:" at the Congressional Research Service's (CRS's) " Navy Virginia-Class Submarine Program and AUKUS Submarine (Pillar 1) Project: Background and Issues for Congress, Version 295" RL32418 of 01/26/2026 at https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/RL/PDF/RL32418/RL32418.295.pdf

Based on American industry's lack of success increasing submarine commissionings since the early 2000s - the US will need to curtail Virginia commissionings. This is in order to commission one Columbia per year during the Columbia production period (2028 to 2040).

In the unlikely circumstance that the US will sell 3 x Block IV Virginias to Australia under AUKUS this would further increase the SSN shortage for the USN.

The Australian Submarine Agency, in a difficult position, and part-time Defence Minister Marles can do the math.

Recent Major Weapons Buys Around the Indo-Pacific Region

AI Overview  [As at October 1, 2026]

"Recent major weapons acquisitions and defense deals across the Indo-Pacific region highlight a rapid buildup driven by countering regional strategic competition.
 [1, 2]
Australia: AIM-260 JATM Purchase
  • Direct Answer: Australia announced a historic agreement to become the first foreign buyer of the U.S. classified AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM).
  • Cost & Timeline: Valued at roughly A$736 million (US$518 million), with deliveries anticipated by 2033.
  • Strategic Fit: Equips RAAF F-35As, Super Hornets, and [EA-18G Growlers]  to counter long-range adversaries beyond visual range. [1, 2, 3]
Indonesia & India: BrahMos and Astra Missiles
  • Direct Answer: Indonesia signed a landmark defense deal to buy BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles and Astra air-to-air missiles from India.
  • Regional Context: Makes Indonesia the third regional operator of BrahMos (following the Philippines and Vietnam).
  • Capability: Integrates Indian Astra missiles onto Indonesian Sukhoi-30 fighter jets for advanced air superiority. [1, 2, 3]
Japan: Tomahawk Integration and Export Pivot
  • Direct Answer: Japan is operationally integrating long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles onto its Aegis destroyers.
  • Scope: Procuring up to 400 Tomahawks (Block IV and V) with a ~1,600 km strike range.
  • Policy Shift: Tokyo also lifted strict defense export caps to supply co-developed missiles and hardware to regional allies like the Philippines and Australia. [1, 2, 3]
Taiwan: Pending U.S. Arms Packages
  • Status: Up to $14 billion worth of U.S. mobile coastal defense, rocket systems, and strike drones remain heavily debated in Washington-Beijing diplomatic talks.
  • Priority: Focus centers heavily on asymmetric, anti-access capabilities to deter potential amphibious crossings. [1, 2, 3]
  • Explore a regional analysis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
  • Read the comprehensive report on Indo-Pacific Defense Forum.
    [1, 2]"