2nd US Carrier Group on way to Iran Region

US NBC News reports February 14, 2026 at https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-sends-us-aircraft-carrier-ford-middle-east-iran-tensions-high-rcna258903

"The USS Ford Carrier Strike Group has been notified that they are leaving the Caribbean and headed to the Middle East, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the decision. The Ford will join the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group already in the region. The decision comes as tensions with Iran remain high."

“…The Ford’s planned deployment to the Mideast comes after President Donald Trump only days earlier suggested another round of talks with the Iranians was at hand. Those negotiations didn’t materialize as one of Tehran’s top security officials visited Oman and Qatar this week and exchanged messages with the U.S. intermediaries.”

Pete Comment

It is unclear whether the Ford Group by February 25, 2026:
-  will sail to the eastern Mediterranean and cruise there
or
- sail on through the Suez Canal - Red Sea -- Arabian Sea off Iran 
or
- more simply around the Cape of Good Hope/South Africa then north through the Indian Ocean to Arabian Sea off Iran.

This also depends on the disposition of the Lincoln group. All amounting to hugely expensive speak loudly (not softly) and carry big sticks to pursue Trump's US imposed peace through violent stand over strategies. 

Submarines?: Each carrier group is most probably being escorted by a US SSN.

Iran's submarines include 3 x Kilo (877s) medium sized SSKs, 1 x small Fateh class SSK and 20 x midget (120 tonne) Ghadir class SSKs - large in number, generally low in capability.

An example of two US strike carrier groups sailing near Iran. Map courtesy https://news.az/news/us-deploys-new-forces-to-the-middle-east-map In this case Nimitz-class carrier USS Lincoln is south of Iran. Pictured is USS Theodore Roosevelt (since departed) in the Strait of Hormuz. USS Ford by February 25, 2026 may be ready to launch raids.

Huge AUKUS Submarines Project Osborne South Australia

Without question or curiosity (such as "can the unproductive US and UK submarine industries deliver?") Australia's government owned ABC News reported a multi $Billion project on February 15, 2026 at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-15/down-payment-for-30b-adelaide-submarine-shipyard/106346484

 "Prime Minister announces [US$2.76 billion] 'down payment' towards [US$21.2b] Adelaide submarine shipyard

In short:

The prime minister has announced [US$2.76 billion] in funding towards [US$21.2 billion] in work for the new submarine construction yard in Adelaide.

It will be identical to another shipyard building submarines in the UK.

What's next?

Construction work at the site is set to continue until 2040.

The South Australian and federal governments have released plans worth [US$21.2 billion] for a shipyard in Adelaide that will build at least eight nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact with the US and the UK.

[Australia's] Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the Commonwealth would make a [US$2.76 billion] "down payment" towards the work at Osborne, with the rest of funding to "flow continuously" over the rest of the shipyard's construction, due to be complete in 2040.

On top of enabling works worth [US$1.4 billion], construction has already started on a fabrication area worth [US$3.5 billion] and a Skills and Training Academy worth [US$354 million].

The The new fabrication hall for submarines will be 420 metres long — more than twice this one at the Osborne South shipyard. 

The shipyard's developer, Australian Naval Infrastructure (ANI), a company owned by the federal government, estimated the next stage, an outfitting area, would cost [US$5.66 billion] to build, while an area for consolidation, testing, launching and commission would cost more than [US$10.6 billion].

The state government estimated at least 4,000 workers would design and build the submarine construction yard, while 5,500 workers would support nuclear-powered submarine production at its peak.

Long time frame for delivery

The submarines are being built as part of the [US$260-billion] AUKUS submarine pact announced in 2021.

It replaced a deal to build French-designed submarines, also in Adelaide.

The first part of the plan is for Australia to buy between three and five nuclear-powered submarines from the US, beginning in the early 2030s, including at two second-hand Virginia-class submarines.

Five of the eight SSN-AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines are due to be delivered by the middle of the 2050s, with the final three delivered in the 2060s.

Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead of the Australian Submarine Agency points out different parts of the new shipyard. (ABC News)
---

Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, the director-general of the Australian Submarine Agency, said experts from the US and the UK had been in Adelaide advising the build.

He said the manufacturing process at Osborne would be "identical" to the shipyard building submarines in the UK [except no Australian expertise in handling submarine reactors!].

"Their facilities are 120 years old; ours will be the most modern submarine yard in the world,"

Vice Admiral Mead said.

Mr Albanese said the construction work and then the work building submarines would provide thousands of jobs into the future in Adelaide.

"If you're a 15 or 16 year old thinking about what am I going to do with my life, you can be assured that there will be well-paid, secure jobs here in Adelaide and you'll get … that satisfaction of seeing what you are creating as a product of your labour and knowing that it is very much your contribution as well to our national interest for decades ahead," Mr Albanese said.

"We do live in an uncertain world, but we can be certain of the economic benefit to the tune of [US$21.2 billion] going forward here in South Australia."

Much larger than frigate work

Mr Albanese met with South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas for a media conference at the Osborne South shipyard five weeks ahead of the state election.

Mr Malinauskas said the investment at Osborne South, where six Hunter class frigates are being built, was "extraordinary" but it "pales into insignificance" compared with the work for the AUKUS submarines.

"[We're] here to announce arguably the most structurally significant contribution to our economy that we will ever see," Mr Malinauskas said."

"What has been announced today completely dwarfs some of the investments that we've seen in South Australia's recent past — that boggles the mind."

While the premier said "much" of the steel for the buildings would come from Whyalla, Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn said she was hopeful a range of South Australian businesses could be part of the project.

"It's really important that we don't just become a glorified IKEA where we're bringing in products from right across the world and just assembling them here in South Australia," Ms Hurn said.

"We need to be at the heart of this manufacturing opportunity, because that's what will set us up for generations to come."

Defence Teaming Centre chief executive Libby Day says the announcement gives some certainty.

Libby Day from the Defence Teaming Centre, which brings together different parts of the defence industry, welcomed the announcement but said long-term contracts were needed for local businesses.

"We need to go a step further — we need certainty around decisions involving the contracting of local companies into the supply chain of building SSN-AUKUS," Ms Day said.”

Straits, Submarines and Law of the Sea

During peacetime and training missions international law and international relations impact submarine movements in straits and narrows even if secrecy is assumed.

Impacting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey has the responsibility to monitor, regulate, and police the Turkish Straits, which consist of: the Bosphorus, Sea of Marmara and the Dardanelles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits

The Strait of Hormuz is also very topical given attacks against Iran and scope that these may soon prevent tankers from transiting this Strait https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00908320.2022.2096158#d1e158 .

On 2/07/2026 5:02 PM Shawn C Co-author of this Submarine and Nuclear Matters blog, made the very interesting points :  

“…I have stated before that the Straits of Malacca are an international passageway and governed under [the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)] https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part3.htm )

Only the three littoral states, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore can jointly patrol the Straits (the Thais sometimes send a warship for joint patrols), so any country sending warships to unilaterally patrol the Malacca Straits, which lies in Malaysian and Indonesian territorial waters, would be ‘frowned upon’.

No nation can stop a ship who is exercising the right of innocent passage - this is why we can see Russian shadow fleet tankers sailing past Singapore. ( https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/shadow-fleet-vessels-zombie-ships-sanctioned-cargo-oil-russia-iran-singapore-straits-5563491 )

If these ships were to pull out of the international lanes for whatever reason and enter Singapore’s territorial waters, they would immediately be stopped by Singapore’s Police Coast Guard.”

Pete Comment

Other UNCLOS aspects relate specifically to submarines.

Under UNCLOS (Article 20) the right of innocent passage for submarines is strictly regulated due to the potential threat they pose to coastal state security. To exercise innocent passage through a foreign territorial sea, submarines must navigate on the surface and show their flag.

Submerged passage without authorization constitutes a violation of the coastal state's sovereignty. For passage to be considered "innocent," it must not threaten the coastal state's peace, good order, or security, excluding activities like espionage or pollution.

Coastal states can impose restrictions, such as requiring submarines to use specific sea lanes, and can temporarily suspend innocent passage for security reasons.

This differs from "transit passage" through international straits, where submarines are permitted to remain submerged. Failure to comply with these rules can result in the coastal state ordering the submarine to leave its waters. Essentially, a submarine's right to innocent passage within 12 nautical miles of a foreign coast is limited to surfaced navigation.

Main Source: Kazuhiro Nakatani's, Submarines at Oxford Public International Law. last updated July 2008 at https://opil.ouplaw.com/display/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e1839 A very comprehensive paper on the subject published under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law under the direction of Professor Anne Peters (2021–) and Professor Rüdiger Wolfrum (2004–2020).

Future Canadian Submarines' biggest task Monitor approaches to Arctic & other Chokepoints

Map courtesy Canadian Society and History: Geography. See much larger image here.

----------------

From Little-Chemical5006 at reddit on February 10, 2026 at https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/1r04q77/new_submarines_will_require_extra_gear_after/

The new submarines Canada plans to buy will not arrive with all the necessary equipment to operate under Arctic ice, meaning they will require modifications after delivery, the head of the navy says. This is under the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP). 

Vice-Admiral Angus Topshee said Canada will need to add under-ice gear to the boats after they arrive, such as upward-facing sonar that can detect and map overhead ice and areas of open water.

“Rather than only being worried about the bottom below us, we’re going to be worried about the ice above us, because the ice is actually less predictable,” Topshee said in an interview.

Topshee also said under-ice operations will not be a significant component of the submarines’ tasks. Instead, their biggest task will be monitoring approaches to the Arctic and other chokepoints.

Canada is seeking up to 12 new submarines and has narrowed the search to two models: one from South Korea and another from a joint German-Norwegian partnership. Ottawa is expected to pick one of these vessels this year.

This would be the largest submarine purchase in Canadian history. It’s being made at a time of heightened anxiety over the country’s sovereignty in the Arctic, as world powers, including the United States, increasingly look north for resources and shipping lanes. Canada is also under pressure to increase its military expenditures in order to hit a new, higher NATO spending target.

Topshee called the needed under-ice operation modifications “relatively simple” to accomplish, but said Canada will proceed carefully on developing its capability in the Arctic environment.

“That’s what we’re going to be targeting: to be able to come up to the surface in basically a crack of open water if we want to,” Topshee said. “Part of ability to operate under there is to be able to return safely to the surface when it’s possible.”

Topshee said the majority of the effort by the new submarine fleet will be monitoring the chokepoints in the Bering Strait, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the transit between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, as well as the Juan de Fuca Strait between British Columbia and Washington State, the entrance to the Puget Sound and the approaches to northern Vancouver Island, Prince Rupert, B.C., and Kitimat, B.C.

Topshee said after taking delivery of the submarines, Canada will “start to work toward going under-ice, up into the Arctic, and then developing an actual under-ice capability.”

Topshee said Canada will also have to verify whether any other modifications are necessary because of the frigid temperatures of Arctic waters.

AUKUS Submarines Situation Getting Worse

Since it was announced in 2021 the AUKUS Pillar 1 situation has been getting worse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS#Pillar_1_%E2%80%93_Nuclear-powered_submarines

From 2028 [1] US completion rates will actually decline from 1.1 standard Virginias per year to 0.8 larger Virginia Block Vs - making availability for the Australian navy even worse. The US is flat out building Columbia-class SSBNs (the highest USN priority - which is where Australia's gifted AUKUS $Billions are ending up). The main US effort is building Columbias until 2042, [2] with sufficient Virginias only available to send to the Australian navy in the mid 2040s. The UK situation of only one or no Astutes available at any one time, is even worse, as this bodes ill for the Astutes' successor, the SSN AUKUS.

Like the Vietnam War that failed, AUKUS is too big to admit failure - until US withdrawal, or reason, forces Australia to withdraw.

[1]  See USS Oklahoma and USS Arizona, the first Virginia Block Vs. expected to be commissioned in 2028. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class

[2]  See “All twelve [Columbias] are expected to be completed by 2042…” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine#Overview

China's New 004 Nuclear Carriers to be larger than Fords

China has a continuous build aircraft carrier program that may be catching up to the US Ford carrier program in quality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme#List_of_carriers

Despite Western criticism (mainly reliance on conventional propulsion) see here and here China’s latest carrier, the Fujian Type 003, appears relatively successful. It boasts the latest functioning electromagnetic (EMALS) CATOBAR system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Fujian already used on USS Ford.

The Type 004 is planned to be larger than the Type 003, even 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes larger than a Ford. China has suggested the 004s may use novel TMSR-LF1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TMSR-LF1 thorium-based molten-salt reactors. This may be a false claim or at least a technical risk, likely to have a PWR backup plan. Construction of the first 004 started in 2024–2025. The large size of a 004 would permit larger, heavier carrier aircraft (like the J-20) with a higher war-load, and longer range than aircraft on Ford carriers.

Along with China’s 3 existing carriers, 6 x 004s in all may be built to give China regional dominance in the Western Pacific by 2035 over the Fords. This is if Fords continue to have global responsibilities or withdraw to a US coastal defensive posture under America First.