About subs, military/naval, missiles, nuclear weapons & enrichment; political issues. New Aussie subs have been just talk since 2009. The Collins LOTE 2028-2040? might help sub availability temporarily. UUVs help. POTUS 2031 may cancel AUKUS Virginias as USN needs all SSNs to the 2040s. Australian Gov ignoring higher priority US Columbia SSBN production is minimising Virginia production until 2043. Shawn C is an excellent author. Gessler is back.
Just as Israel ended the 2025
Gaza ceasefire due to it continuing to bomb, shell and occupy Gaza -
Israel is doing its utmost to frustrate the Iran-US-Israel ceasefire by
increasing its war against Hezbollah, and many more civilians, in Lebanon.
Two considerations are:
- Israel Katz, Defense Minister, is even more hardline nationalist than Netanyahu, hence more strongly opposed to peace with Iran. Israel's actions in Lebanon hinder peace.
- Israel is not under domestic pressure to the extent of many countries from the decline of oil and gas via the Hormuz Strait. Israel extracts its natural gas needs (even exports gas) from its eastern Mediterranean gas fields. Israel's oil needs are 70% from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. These supplies mainly come via a pipeline through Turkey. Its other major oil sources include Gabon, Brazil and even Russia.
"Ghost Murmur" possibly sponsored by the CIA and possibly developed by Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works, may not yet work to low Earth orbiting (LEO) satellites or much higher Geo-stationery satellites.
Alternatively, or as well, the US War Department's DARPA may have done the sponsoring, with some research organizations like AT&T or Bell Labs doing the developing.
It is presumed Ghost Murmur works to sensors on lower altitude, slow moving
"aircraft" like UAVs and helicopters as well as being carried by US search parties on the ground.
"Ghost Murmur: What Is This US Tech That Let CIA Track Heartbeats 40 Miles Away to Find Pilot in Iran Discover how the CIA's Ghost Murmur technology used quantum magnetometry to track a wounded airman's heartbeat 40 miles away in Iran. Learn how this breakthrough tech works and why it marks a new era in military search and rescue.
Heartbeat in the Desert: How a Secret CIA Tool Tracked a Missing Pilot Miles Away
(Image above by Republic)
In the middle of a vast, silent desert in southern Iran, a wounded American airman lay hidden inside a mountain crevice, trying not to be seen, not to be heard, barely moving as enemy forces searched for him. There were no clear signals, no obvious movement, nothing that would normally give away his position. And yet, miles away, US intelligence had already found him.
Not by sight. Not by sound. But by his heartbeat.
According to a report by the New York Post, the CIA used a highly classified system known as “Ghost Murmur” to locate the missing airman, marking what sources describe as its first real-world operational use. The rescue that followed was complex and risky, but what stands out is the technology that made it possible - a system that sounds like science fiction, yet may now be very real.
How the Technology Actually Works At its core, Ghost Murmur works on a surprisingly simple idea. Every human heart produces a tiny electromagnetic signal when it beats. Under normal conditions, that signal is so faint it can only be detected in a hospital, with sensors placed directly on the chest. But this system changes the rules.
Using advances in quantum magnetometry, it can detect that same signal from far away. The technology relies on extremely sensitive sensors, reportedly built using specially engineered diamonds, that can pick up even the weakest magnetic fields. Once those signals are captured, artificial intelligence software filters out everything else - environmental noise, terrain interference, random electromagnetic activity - and isolates the unique rhythm of a human heartbeat.
Why the Desert Made It Easier The conditions in southern Iran made this an ideal testing ground. The landscape is sparse, with very little electronic interference and almost no competing human presence. At night, the contrast between a living body and the cooler desert surroundings becomes sharper, offering an additional layer of confirmation. All of this combined to give operators a rare advantage: a clean environment where even the faintest signal could stand out.
The Moment That Changed the Search The airman had activated a survival beacon at one point, but that alone wasn’t enough to pinpoint his exact location. What mattered more, according to sources quoted in the report, was that he had to briefly expose himself to send that signal. That moment may have helped Ghost Murmur lock onto him, turning a vague search into a precise detection.
Not a Magic Tool, Yet
Even with its breakthrough capability, the system is far from all-powerful. It reportedly works best in remote, low-noise environments and requires significant processing time to confirm a signal. In crowded or electronically dense areas, isolating a single heartbeat would be far more difficult. This is not a tool that sees everything everywhere, at least, not yet.
Much of Ghost Murmur remains classified, and the full extent of its capabilities is still unclear. But if the New York Post report is even partly accurate, this mission may mark a turning point - a moment where intelligence agencies proved they can track not just where someone is, but whether they are alive, by listening to the quiet, steady rhythm inside the human body.
In a place where a man had almost vanished without a trace, it was that rhythm - steady, invisible, unmistakably human - that led rescuers straight to him."
The article below looks too good, more informed by human intelligence agencies than typical news agency gloss. The article also evinces a deep understanding of missiles, more like military intelligence than news agency exaggeration.
Analysts estimate about 850 US Tomahawk missiles have been fired during the Middle East war. (US Navy via AP)
In short:
The US is estimated to be burning through high-end weapons at a rapid pace in its war on Iran and stockpiles could take years to replenish.
Analysts say the weapons may not be available for use should other conflicts break out.
They say the duration and outcome of the war could be affected by which side runs out of critical weapons first.
The United States went into war with Iran with full force, unleashing some of its most advanced and expensive weapons.
In the first 16 days of the conflict the US burnt through 11,294 munitions at a cost of about $US26 billion ($38 billion), according to estimates from the Payne Institute for Public Policy.
It estimated more than 5,000 were fired in the first 96 hours alone.
With the war entering its fifth week and the possibility of a US ground invasion not ruled out, American allies have raised concerns about dwindling supplies.
On March 19 Armin Papperger, chief executive of major German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, warned global stocks of missile interceptors needed for air defence systems were "nearly empty" as a result of the US-Israel war on Iran.
A building that was damaged by an Iranian drone attack in Manama, Bahrain. (Reuters: Hamad I Mohammed)
Analysts say weapons pressures could end up affecting the duration of conflict, with sizeable holes already blown in high-end munitions stockpiles.
They predict it could take years for some supplies to be replenished, making US allies "nervous" about the West's military readiness for other potential conflicts.
Neither side backing down
US President Donald Trump has given Iran several ultimatums, threatening to escalate attacks if a deal to end the war is not reached.
But Tehran has repeatedly rejected the proposals, saying the terms were "unrealistic" and issuing its own threats.
Amin Saikal, emeritus professor of Middle Eastern studies at the Australian National University, said the negotiating demands put forward by the US and Iran were "worlds apart".
As it stands, the scene could be set for a much longer war.
"So far both sides have displayed the capacity to be able to confront each other," Dr Saikal said.
"At this point, neither is willing to really back down."
[Pete's Lecturer/Tutor at Australian National University in the early 1980s] Amin Saikal does not think the war will be ending anytime soon. (ABC News)
He said if the war dragged on for several more weeks, the side that lost the most "hardware" could start pulling back.
"Whichever side depletes its stocks of missiles and interceptors first could signal a desire to end the fighting," Dr Saikal told the ABC.
US burns through crucial weapons
In early March Mr Trump boasted the US military had enough weapons stockpiled to fight wars "forever".
But recent estimates from the Payne Institute paint a different picture.
Analysts from the research centre at the Colorado School of Mines have been tracking daily weapons exchanges since about day five of the Middle East conflict.
Based on available data on prewar stocks, it assessed that the US had lost nearly 46 per cent of its Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS).
The surface-to-surface missiles have a range of up to 300 kilometres and were designed to strike high-value targets such as missile sites.
The institute estimated supplies of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile systems, used by the US and its partners in the region to defend against Iranian missiles, were also dropping significantly.
Projections showed the THAAD interceptors could run out by mid-April.
Data from the Payne Institute for Public Policy estimating the use of critical weapons from March 24 and the dates of possible depletion. (ABC News Graphics/Payne Institute)
Jahara Matisek, a command pilot in the US Air Force and senior fellow at the Payne Institute, said only about 100 THAAD missiles were made a year.
"Our tracking system has tracked about 200 to 400 of those being used at this point, so how do you replace that?" he said on ABC Radio National Breakfast.
THAAD systems are being used extensively by the US and its partners to defend against Iranian missiles. (AP: US Air Force/Cory Payne)
Israel's Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors, used to take out Iran's powerful longer-range missiles, were also projected to be exhausted by the end of March.
Retired Marine Colonel Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) defence department, said the Payne Institute's data provided "a good estimate".
But he said it was impossible to know exactly how many weapons were in each side's stocks before the war broke out on February 28.
"If Israel was really about at the end of their Arrow missile inventory, I think we would be hearing reports that they wanted more Patriots [air defence systems] or another THAAD deployed to Israel," Colonel Cancian said.
"We haven't heard that."
Damage in a residential neighbourhood in southern Israel following a night of Iranian missile strikes. (Reuters: Ilan Rosenberg)
Tomahawks, Patriots in short supply
Colonel Cancian was not surprised that a modern conflict would burn up a lot of munitions in a relatively short time.
But he was shocked to see some critical weapons had been fired in such large numbers.
"Particularly Tomahawks and Patriots," Colonel Cancian told the ABC.
"These systems are a problem because they are in short supply and high demand."
Tomahawks have a range of about 1,600km and can be launched from land or sea.
The missiles are used to strike deep-territory targets with precision, without sending pilots into dangerous airspace.
A Tomahawk is fired from a US vessel in the early days of the Middle East conflict. (US Navy — Wikimedia Commons)
Only a few hundred Tomahawks are manufactured a year and cost about $US3.6 million ($5.2 million) per shot.
The US fired about 850 in the first month of the war, more than in any other military campaign in history, the CSIS estimated.
Colonel Cancian did not believe the Tomahawk stockpile would be completely depleted in the Middle East war, but there were concerns about whether enough supplies would be left to protect other regions.
"What's making people very nervous is a potential conflict with China," he said.
"In the Western Pacific, a US ship can stay well away from China and still be able to launch this missile at Chinese forces."
Expensive US Patriot defence systems are being used to defend against cheap Iranian drones. (AP: Sebastian Apel/US Department of Defense)
It was a similar situation with Patriot air defence systems, which the US and Gulf states were using to intercept Iranian ballistic and cruise missiles.
The Gulf states' Patriot interceptors in particular were at risk of running dangerously low, according to Payne Institute data.
Lieutenant Colonel Matisek said there were also reports of "very wasteful intercepts" using Patriot missiles, which cost about $US4 million to shoot down $US50,000 ($72,000) drones.
"If current munition burn rates keep occurring … it means you just run out of everything and now you can't support Ukraine, you can't defend Taiwan in a future crisis," he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Kyiv would "definitely" face shortages of Patriots because of the US war against Iran.
Lockheed Martin produces about 600 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors a year.
The Payne Institute estimated about 402 were fired in the first 16 days of the war on Iran.
Iran's missile capabilities had been "significantly diminished" but "certainly not obliterated", he added.
"Not to mention the thousands of drones Iran still has in its inventory," Mr Panikoff said.
Jonathan Panikoff says Iran could have plenty of firepower left. (Supplied)
Lieutenant Colonel Matisek said Iranian drone and missile attacks had fallen by 80 to 90 per cent from their initial peak, but were still straining US and Israeli defences across the region.
He said Iran's capabilities might have been underestimated.
"The ability for the Iranians to sustain the fight likely reflects they had way more [weapons] stockpiled," Lieutenant Colonel Matisek said.
"This is really troubling … because the US interceptors, the missiles that shoot down missiles and drones, those are running critically low."
"We could go into a new phase where there's ground combat — not on the mainland, but maybe on the islands," Colonel Cancian said.
"If we go into that, it's possible there may be strains on parts of the inventory, such as the Patriots, if the Iranians really let loose with whatever they have left."
Lieutenant Colonel Matisek said weapon production rates were already a major concern and that the White House would be looking for an off-ramp.
He said it could take at least five years to replenish 500 Tomahawk missiles and that there were wider supply chain issues to consider.
China controls many of the rare earths and materials needed to make a wide range of weapons.
Patriot air defence missile systems can cost millions of dollars. (AP: Mindaugas Kulbis)
Lieutenant Colonel Matisek said the US was already receiving F-35 fighter jet parts with missing radar components.
"We suspect it's because of Chinese export controls over germanium and gallium," he said.
"We do not have the supply chain … to replace a lot of these munitions."
A limited supply of minerals was not an issue you could "just throw money at", he added.
