In response to Kev's comment at 10/04/2026 8:02 PM
The end of the Life Of Type Extended ("LOTEd") Collins (in about, as you say, 2044) to actual Commissionings of SSN-AUKUS for Australia (in about 2054, if at all) presents an even a bleaker submarine capability gap.
With declining SSN availability for the USN I see no US policy window to export Virginias to Australia. Rather USN Virginias may each have about 15-20 Aus sailors/officers and about 4 US Virginias will rotate at 3 to 4 month intervals at Fleet Base West (FBW). Meanwhile UK PWR2 reactor trouble prone Astutes will conduct 2 week propaganda tours at FBW every 18 months on average.
The 10 year Australian (Aus) Submarine capability gap will need to be filled by a combination of: USN Virginias, French Suffren SSNs (on their New Caledonia/Fr Polynesia tours?), Aus UUVs, Aus surface warships, Aus AUVs, Aus-US satellites, air refueled RAAF F-35A long strike aircraft with standoff missiles, and I foresee "Gilmour Booster-Hypersonix warhead IRBMs" in DF-26 like long range anti-shipping and land attack roles.
October 8, 2026
Pre-Palm Oil Plantation Fires in Indonesia AGAIN: Singapore Smoked Again
Australia's Government owned ABC News reports October 8, 2026 at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-08/indonesian-government-sued-over-worsening-wildfire/107237412
"Indonesian government faces Kalimantan [aka Borneo, three quarters of which is in Indonesia] wildfires lawsuit as haze blankets region"
"A group of civil society organisations in Indonesia's West Kalimantan province has filed a class action lawsuit against the national government over its handling of wildfires in the region.
Proceedings began yesterday in Pontianak, the capital of the region located on the island of Borneo.
According to the plaintiffs, the peatland fires and accompanying widespread haze are an almost annual occurrence and should have been anticipated.
Glorio Sanen, legal coordinator of the group Nafas Kalbar, which was formed to hold the government accountable, said the government's failure to act and negligence were responsible for the fires and its impact.
...Millions of people, including in neighbouring countries Singapore and Malaysia, have been dealing with toxic haze caused by the forest fires that started in July [2026].
Indonesia's Health Ministry has recorded at least 175,000 respiratory infection cases linked to fires since August.
According to the official data, more than 200 fire spots are still burning, with the wet season in most parts of Indonesia not expected to arrive until November [2026].
...fires more easily spread across peatlands damaged and dried out as a result of practices such as monoculture planting of palm oil.
...Plantation owners and traditional farmers often start fires to clear land, according to the National Police Criminal Investigation Agency's special crimes unit.
Investigations into possible corporate involvement in lighting the fires is underway, with charges carrying possible prison sentences of up to 15 years.
Environmental groups said the conversion of peatlands into oil palm plantations in Kalimantan was one of the causes of wildfires. (Reuters: Willy Kurniawan via ABC)
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..."If we're asking law enforcement authorities to enforce the law on forest and land fires in a transparent and fair manner, how could they object to that?"...MORE
Comment
It is possible that landowner corruption is hindering the high standard of Indonesian legal processes concerning pre-Palm Oil Plantation clearances that use fire.
October 5, 2026
Australia a Role Model For Upgraded Japanese Security Intelligence: AUKUS
Pete Comment
For a country, like Japan, to join an alliance, like AUKUS, that handles high-end Top Secret material, a country needs a robust, integrated and coordinated security-intelligence structure. It must include strong counter-intelligence culture and liaison with intelligence allies. This is particularly against penetration of the Japanese Government and defence companies (like Mitsubishi and Kawasaki shipyards) by North Korea, Russian and of course PRC-Chinese agents and cyber-espionage.
This is why Japan is upgrading its security intelligence analysis and collection coordination.
Press Article
North Asia
correspondent Natalie Whiting and Akane Saiki (in Tokyo) for Australia's government owned ABC News report October 5, 2026 at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-05/japan-builds-spy-agency-as-china-tensions-escalate/107220738
"Japan builds spy agency 'with the utmost urgency' as tensions with China escalate
Takaichi Sanae says establishing a Japanese spy agency is "a matter of the utmost urgency". (Reuters: Edward Grattan)
In short:
Japan's plans for a new espionage agency, prompted by increasing concerns about countries such as China, are gathering momentum.
Japan's prime minister says strengthening intelligence capabilities is "a matter of the utmost urgency".
What's next?
Japan "really wants" to join AUKUS, according to a leading Tokyo academic, who says Australia has been a "good" role model for many years.
Japan may soon have its own "CIA", as it works to establish its first centralised network of intelligence operations since World War II.
Plans for a new espionage agency have been prompted by increasing concerns about military build-up in countries such as China and threats of foreign interference.
Japan's current intelligence system is fragmented, with police, defence and foreign affairs departments all gathering information, but not always sharing it across agencies.
Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said strengthening intelligence capabilities was "a matter of the utmost urgency", given geopolitical shifts across the region.
"We are seeing the military build-up of China and North Korea, as well as strengthened cooperation between China and Russia, and between Russia and North Korea,"she said.
Japan holds military drills every New Year at Narashino exercise field, east of Tokyo. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
Ms Takaichi also raised concerns about a rise in "the unauthorised leakage of cutting-edge technology involving foreign intelligence agents", cyber attacks on the public and private sectors, and disinformation campaigns "aimed at manipulating public opinion to favour a particular country".
She recently met with a newly formed expert panel tasked with helping create a long-term intelligence strategy.
Japan considers its own CIA
Osawa Jun, a panel member and senior research fellow at the Nakasone Peace Institute, told the ABC the old system had "failed to ensure that the nation as a whole carried out intelligence gathering and analysis in a properly coordinated manner".
Already this year, a new overarching security council headed by the prime minister has been established, along with a National Intelligence Bureau.
Japan's increased defence spending and its ties to the US have raised concerns in China. (Reuters: Kylie Cooper)
Next, the government is looking at setting up an independent foreign intelligence agency, which will be similar to America's CIA.
"If we are to possess intelligence capabilities truly on a par with those of the US or the [United Kingdom], it will be necessary to gather intelligence abroad," Mr Osawa said.
"Conceptually, this would be akin to the world of the CIA or Britain's 007."
The intelligence reforms will bring Japan in line with other major countries and they come amid a broader expansion of the nation's defence capabilities.
What are the challenges?
Takaichi Sanae addresses the Self-Defense Forces Senior Commanders' Conference in Tokyo last month. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
The aim is to establish a foreign intelligence agency by early 2028, according to a policy document prepared by the country's ruling party, and for the agency to "maximise the effective use of limited human resources and be operational immediately after establishment".
Personnel will not be the only issue, with legal and structural changes also needed to facilitate the intelligence work and better protect the country against foreign espionage, to which it is currently vulnerable.
"There are still significant challenges ahead,"Mr Osawa said.
"[Those include] enacting laws to enable concrete intelligence-gathering and countermeasures, establishing the necessary government agencies, and training personnel capable of carrying out these tasks."
Ensuring public support and establishing democratic oversight are also a focus for the independent panel.
Japan participated in the Rim of the Pacific military exercises in Hawaii in 2024. (Reuters: Marco Garcia)
But one of Japan's pre-eminent former national security chiefs, Kitamura Shigeru, said the country did "not have to start from zero" and should build on its existing international counterterrorism capabilities.
Mr Kitamura said Japan needed to ensure it limited its focus to gathering information and did not engage in political manipulation or subversion overseas.
"In constructing a new intelligence architecture, we should not simply import every function of intelligence services elsewhere,"he said.
While pushing for controls, he described secret intelligence gathering as an "indispensable function" of a modern country.
"We cannot depend entirely upon information supplied by others, however close our allies and partners may be," he said.
Australia has been a 'good model'
Japan has examined intelligence systems and foreign interference laws in countries including the US, the UK, France, and Australia.
Tomohiko Satake, from the Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, said Australia had been a "good model for Japan for many years".
"In terms of the scale of the country, we can't be America, of course, we can't be maybe the UK, but we could be Australia, in terms of our intelligence ability," he said.
"I think there are many things Australia can cooperate with Japan on in terms of intelligence capabilities and, most importantly, how to establish that intelligence community itself."
He also pointed to Australia's clearance system, which vets who has access to intelligence and governs how it is shared, as an area for Japan to consider.
Increased intelligence sharing with Australia predicted
The changes are expected to increase Japan's intelligence sharing and security relationships with its partners in the West.
Ghost Robotics Vision 60 robotic dogs take part in a New Year Japanese military drill. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
During a visit to Australia in May, Ms Takaichi and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese issued a joint statement on enhanced defence and security cooperation, which included "increased information and intelligence cooperation".
Professor Satake said Japan "really wants" to join AUKUS, a trilateral military technology partnership between Australia, the UK, and the United States.
Australia is also seen as "gateway for Japan to be closer to Five Eyes", a powerful intelligence-sharing alliance made up of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US.
Takaichi Sanae and Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi are forging ahead with significant increases to defence spending. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Pool)
Jun Osawa said while joining Five Eyes would be difficult for Japan, he did think it could "become a partner close to the Five Eyes, drawing on Japan's unique intelligence".
"In particular, when it comes to analysis regarding China, there are quite a few areas where Japan is superior," he said.
"I believe it is important to build a relationship where we can properly exchange that sort of information."
What does China think?
Beijing has criticised what it describes as Japan's "remilitarisation". (Getty Images: Manuel Orbegozo/Bloomberg )
China has criticised Japan's intelligence reforms, describing them as "another negative move in its domestic and external security policies".
Relations between the countries have been at a historic low since Ms Takaichi said an attack on Taiwan could potentially trigger a military response from Japan. Beijing has also been outspoken about what it calls Japan's "remilitarisation".
"Japan's intelligence agencies historically paved the way for its full-scale pursuit of militarism and the launch of wars of aggression," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said after the establishment of Japan's new National Intelligence Bureau.
She accused Japan of "threatening regional peace and stability and raising widespread concerns among the international community"."
October 1, 2026
The US will need to curtail Virginia production to commission a Columbia/year. AUKUS?
The USN will face a crippling SSN shortage by 2040, cancelling AUKUS Pillar 1.
Firstly, what must be taken into account is the average rate of Los Angeles-class submarine retirements, which is 1.45 per year since retirements began in 1995. So the 18 active Los Angeles will all be retired in 12 years, ie. by 2038.
Firstly, what must be taken into account is the average rate of Los Angeles-class submarine retirements, which is 1.45 per year since retirements began in 1995. So the 18 active Los Angeles will all be retired in 12 years, ie. by 2038.
Secondly. average Virginia Block I to IV production has only been 1.2 per year during the whole production run from the early 2000s to the present. Larger Virginia Block Vs will only be produced at around 0.8 per year maximum.
Third and most importantly, the full rate production target for the 12 Columbia-class SSBNs is one commissioning per year from 2028 to 2040 inclusive. The Columbias are the USN's highest priority program as Columbias are America's most efficient and protected nuclear second strike weapon platform. The industrial effort to build one Columbia is equivalent to the effort to build 2.5 "standard Virginias" (Blocks I to IV). See page 49 "Submarine Construction:" at the Congressional Research Service's (CRS's) " Navy Virginia-Class Submarine Program and AUKUS Submarine (Pillar 1) Project: Background and Issues for Congress, Version 295" RL32418 of 01/26/2026 at https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/RL/PDF/RL32418/RL32418.295.pdf
Based on American industry's lack of success increasing submarine commissionings since the early 2000s - the US will need to curtail Virginia commissionings. This is in order to commission one Columbia per year during the Columbia production period (2028 to 2040).
In the unlikely circumstance that the US will sell 3 x Block IV Virginias to Australia under AUKUS this would further increase the SSN shortage for the USN.
The Australian Submarine Agency, in a difficult position, and part-time Defence Minister Marles can do the math.
Recent Major Weapons Buys Around the Indo-Pacific Region
AI Overview [As at October 1, 2026]
"Recent major weapons acquisitions and defense deals across the Indo-Pacific region highlight a rapid buildup driven by countering regional strategic competition. [1, 2]
"Recent major weapons acquisitions and defense deals across the Indo-Pacific region highlight a rapid buildup driven by countering regional strategic competition. [1, 2]
Australia: AIM-260 JATM Purchase
- Direct Answer: Australia announced a historic agreement to become the first foreign buyer of the U.S. classified AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM).
- Cost & Timeline: Valued at roughly A$736 million (US$518 million), with deliveries anticipated by 2033.
- Strategic Fit: Equips RAAF F-35As, Super Hornets, and [EA-18G Growlers] to counter long-range adversaries beyond visual range. [1, 2, 3]
Indonesia & India: BrahMos and Astra Missiles
- Direct Answer: Indonesia signed a landmark defense deal to buy BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles and Astra air-to-air missiles from India.
- Regional Context: Makes Indonesia the third regional operator of BrahMos (following the Philippines and Vietnam).
Japan: Tomahawk Integration and Export Pivot
- Direct Answer: Japan is operationally integrating long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles onto its Aegis destroyers.
- Scope: Procuring up to 400 Tomahawks (Block IV and V) with a ~1,600 km strike range.
Taiwan: Pending U.S. Arms Packages
- Status: Up to $14 billion worth of U.S. mobile coastal defense, rocket systems, and strike drones remain heavily debated in Washington-Beijing diplomatic talks.
- Explore a regional analysis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
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