HTMS Sukhothai Sinking: Little Stabilising Fuel Ballast?

Locum, on December 26, 2022, made some interesting comments about the tragic December 18, 2022 sinking of HTMS Sukhothai with many crew drowned. 

My theory is the main reason for HTMS Sukhothai's sinking was its short range mission probably meant it was carrying only a small load of diesel fuel. This meant it effectively had little fuel acting as stabilising ballast. 

This tended to make Sukhothai top-heavy - thus in a vulnerable condition when it encountered the storm. It was easier for the storm winds to blow Sukhothai over and storm waves to push it over, causing Sukhothai to list on the way to capsising. Meanwhile water entered an exhaust port, causing a fire, shorting out Sukhothai's electricals, stopping water being pumped out and finally causing Sukhothai to sink.

Looking at history three larger USN warships - in a similar condition of carrying little fuel/ballast - where lost in a storm in western Pacific waters in 1944. 

An additional possible cause was HTMS Sukhothai being required by onshore high command and/or by the Captain to press on with its mission to attend a commemoration of the late Prince Abhakara Kiartivongse (considered "Father of the Thai Navy"). HTMS Sukhothai heading into port in a timely manner might have risked aborting this mission. 

This mission completion issue is implicit where Locum recorded:
"1645 hrs: Sukhothai reports to shore base, that it wants to return to port". 

Maybe the HTMS Sukhothai's Captain was awaiting shore based orders for too long before he decided (or did not decide) to head for port. 

Locum also mention additional possibly contributing factors: 

- "There are unconfirmed reports about inadequate maintenance and training." 

and 

- "Accidents are always caused by different factors at the same time. The snow ball effect."

It will be interesting to read what the committee, set up by Navy Chief Adm Choengchai Chomchoengpaet to inquire into HTMS Sukhothai's sinking, concludes. That is if the conclusions are made public.

First Female ASIS Head in February 2023

Announced here and above 10 days ago. Kerri Hartland to be first female Director-General of ASIS in February 2023.
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Voice of America reported, December 19, 2022

"Australia Appoints First Woman to Lead its Foreign Spy Agency"

"SYDNEY — 

A former senior public servant is the first woman to be appointed to lead Australia’s foreign spy agency. Kerri Hartland [Wiki biodata] will become the director-general of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS) in February [2023].

Hartland has recently been overseeing the reform of the workplace culture in Australia’s federal parliament following a string of scandals and allegations of sexual assault.

She is an experienced public servant and a former journalist.

She is the first woman chosen to run ASIS. Hartland does not have the traditional armed forces or foreign affairs background as her predecessors, but Hartland was the deputy director-general of the domestic spy agency, the Australian Security Intelligence Organization, between 2011 and 2017.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in a statement earlier this month that she would bring “excellent strategic, operational and people leadership” skills to her new role.

William Stoltz, the policy director at the National Security College at the Australian National University, told VOA Monday that Hartland has been appointed to oversee fundamental change at ASIS.

“The operational environment necessitates that the work of ASIS has to change,” Stoltz said. “I mean, we have come off about 20-years of ASIS working quite closely with British SIS (Secret Intelligence Service) and the American CIA with a predominant focus on counterterrorism and counter-insurgency operations in the Middle East.”

Stoltz added that Australia’s foreign spy agency now has shifted its attention to China.

Stoltz told VOA that “We are very firmly shifted to an operating environment where ASIS’s work needs to be much closer to home focusing on preventing and understanding, I suppose, the great power competition that is happening between China and the United States and so that means it is a very different intelligence collection target set.”

The Director-General of the Australian Signals Directorate, another official intelligence agency, is also a woman. Rachel Noble is the first woman to hold that position and was appointed in 2020.

Other women have been appointed to senior intelligence roles in other countries.

Avril Haines was confirmed by the U.S. Senate in 2021 as first female national intelligence chief. Last year, Italy also appointed the first woman — a former ambassador, Elisabetta Belloni — to lead its secret services."

Lovely Kate's Christmas Concert: Highlights

Lovely Princess Kate (so much nicer than Meghan :-) organised the Christmas Concert (highlights here and above). Later Kate chatted with and (35 seconds in) "High Fived" some of the concert attendees. 

I'm in love or lust, whatever! ;-)

Merry Christmas: May We All have a Peaceful 2023

Thanks everyone who read Submarine Matters in 2022. Even a bigger thanks to readers who left good blog comments or commented directly to me by Email. 

Australia's Christmas (being Southern Hemisphere) is the hottest time of year. Temperatures average around 30ºC during XMAS day and 17ºC at night. 

Christmas feasts are frequently in the cooler evening on December 25. often with cold seafood (especially prawns/""ShrimpS" on the barbie), cold ham and warm turkey  (CHICKEN IS ALWAYS BETTER..:) and cold beer. 

I miss the really cold WHITE christmases in FALLINGBOSTEL, THEN A TANK BASE IN WEST germany, were i spent two years AS A LITTLE KID in 1965-66.

a collins sub enjoys a tropical sunset at christmas

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SURFIN SANTA AND FRIENDS IN AUSTRALIA 

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CHRISTMAS BEACH "BUNNIES" IN AUSTRALIA. LUCKILY THEY'RE 20 YEARS OLD :) IN THAT REGARD I'M MUCH TAKEN WITH CHERYL, AN IRISH FOLK AND OPERA SINGER, SINGING THIS CAROL. HERE IS CHERYL AGAIN.
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HERE'S A christmas carol of brotherhood
even between OPPOSING PILOTS 

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have a merry, safe CHRISTMAS AND A  PEACEFUL NEW YEAR.

Pete 

Thai Sailors, from HTMS Sukhothai, Missing

Wilawan Watcharasakwet and Nontarat Phaicharoen, through Radio Free Asia,  December 19, 2022, from Bangkok, report the tragic sinking of HTMS Sukhothai, with 31 sailors lost at sea:

"Thai Navy searching for missing sailors from sunken warship"
"The Sukhothai suffered engine and generator failures after being struck by high waves on Sunday evening [December 18, 2022].

The HTMS Sukhothai warship lists before sinking off the coast of Prachuap
Khiri Khan province, Thailand, Dec. 18, 2022.
(Courtesy Royal Thai Navy via AP)
---

Thai aircraft and ships were searching for dozens of missing sailors after a Royal Thai Navy ship capsized and sank in rough seas off Prachuap Khiri Khan province, officials said Monday.

Seventy-five sailors have been rescued but the search in Gulf of Thailand waters was going on for at least 31 others from the HTMS Sukhothai despite strong winds and high waves hampering the operation, a Navy spokesman said Monday. It was the first sinking of a Thai navy ship in nearly eight decades dating back to World War II.

The ship’s engines and power generators failed after suffering severe flooding while being struck by 2- to 4-meter (6.5- to 13-foot) waves about 20 miles off shore on Sunday, officials said.

“We don’t give up on the search around the sunken spot. No one has been found dead so far,” Navy chief Adm. Choengchai Chomchoengpaet said Monday. “The Navy has dispatched war ships and aircraft, while the Air Force has sent helicopters and planes to search for them.”

“Preliminary, the injured said there was an influx of sea water and they tried to fight,” Choengchai said, adding, “but the rough weather led to more flooding causing the ship to lose generators and engines.”

A Navy spokesman, meanwhile, said a round-the-clock rescue operation was ongoing.

“We have rescued 75. The missing remains at 31. Though it is dark now, we will search for them all night,” Navy spokesman Adm. Pokkrong Monthatphalin told BenarNews, an RFA-affiliated news service, on Monday evening.

Military personnel and rescue crew members gather at a makeshift operation site during the search for survivors of the HTMS Sukhothai, Dec. 19, 2022. Credit: Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP
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As the Sukhothai was listing on Sunday, the Navy sent another ship to rescue the crews but could not get near it, officials said.

A non-commissioned officer on board the Sukhothai told local Thai media that the waves were as high as 5 meters (16.4 feet), as the frigate HMS Kraburi sailed nearby.

“The waves were so rough, the crews scattered around the decks and waited for other ships to come help but to no avail. We waited until our ship sank and they could help us,” Petty Officer Second Class Patarawut Maram said.

“Since setting sail for two years, I have never encountered such strong winds. The waves came in at once, four to five meters high, crashing until it hit the side of the boat,” he said.

“Some people fractured their ribs,” he said, adding, “we had to wait until our ship sank first, then another ship could come to help.”

A doctor in Prachuap Khiri Khan said 15 were treated for injuries including three who suffered broken bones.

Pokkrong, the Navy spokesman, said a cargo ship had sunk over the weekend in nearby waters.

Poor weather forecast

In its Monday forecast, the Thai Meteorological Department reported that poor conditions were expected to remain in the region.

“[The] northeasterly monsoon blanketed the Gulf of Thailand, southern Thailand and the Andaman Sea remains strong, causing heavy rains. In both the Gulf and the Andaman Sea, the waves are as high as 2 to 4 meters and above 4 meters in the rainy areas,” it said. “Boats should sail with caution and avoid the rainy stormy areas until Dec. 20.”

The Royal Thai Navy’s Sukhothai (FSG-442) is seen in this undated photo. (Credit: Courtesy Royal Thai Navy)
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Designated FSG-442, the Sukhothai is one of the two Royal Thai Navy corvettes built in Tacoma, Washington. Commissioned 35 years ago, it was capable of conducting surface-to-air, surface-to-surface and anti-submarine warfare.

The sinking was the first of a Thai warship in 77 years.

Bangkok media reported that the HTMS Samui sank after being struck by a U.S. torpedo near Malaysia in 1945, killing 31 sailors. Four years earlier, the French Navy attacked Thai ships during the Franco-Thai War, sinking two ships and heavily damaging a third.

BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated news service."

Singapore's, Impeccable & Illustrious, Launched

Pete Comment

Unlike Australia the Netherlands and India - Singapore, with its typical national efficiency, has relatively rapidly been procuring new submarines. 

In contrast, when, in 2014, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott indicated Australia should buy a Japanese sub this should/would have set in train a process resulting in the first Japanese sub (an SSK) in RAN hands by 2030. Meaning Australia's looming 2030s submarine capability gap would be avoided.

Article

Shawn C. who clearly knows a fair bit about Singaporean submarine matters, has kindly provided the following:

"As you know, TKMS has been very busy in the last couple of years, with Singaporean and Israeli orders, with the start of German/Norwegian Type 212CD production in 2023.

The second and third (RSS Impeccable and RSS Illustrious) of four Invincible-class (aka Type 212SG) submarines for the Singapore Navy, were launched on December 13, 2022. These join first in class, RSS Invincible, which was launched on February 18, 2019 and has been conducting crew training from Kiel on the German Baltic. Kiel is an interesting multi-cultural place, as the last Dolphin 2 sub (INS Drakon) will also be training in Kiel till sometime next year.

RSS Invincible may be in Singapore waters in 2023. There is no ETA as to when the last Invincible-class submarine, RSS Inimitable will be completed (I reckon if the RSN was following UK RN capital ship naming conventions - this name Inimitable should be replaced with Indefatigable or Indomitable).

Some sources on the two launches are:

-  Singaporean Ministry of Defence News Release 

-  TKMS News Release 

-  informative Channel News Asia article 

-  Video of the launch ceremony in Kiel 

and

-  Local newspaper Kieler Nachrichten article [right-click mouse if it doesn’t automatically translate] 

Interestingly, Hydrogen production (for fuel cells and power generation) is a nascent/promising technology in Singapore at the moment, though there are moves to start Hydrogen supply. See this H2 Bulletin article."

Indonesia Struggling to Stave Off China

The Straits Times, Dec 15, 2022, has produced an excellent article beginning:

“Indonesia struggles to build military that can stave off China”

“JAKARTA – Indonesia is confronting challenges overhauling its ageing military despite a spending splurge to face down threats that include a long-running territorial dispute with its biggest trading partner, China.

Incursions by Chinese vessels into waters around the Natuna Islands, between Malaysia and Indonesia, [see Map below] have put Jakarta on alert.

The [Indonesian] government recently relocated [the 1st Fleet Command] to Riau, near the islands, after starting construction on a submarine base last year. It also announced plans to spend US$125 billion (S$168 billion) on new weapons, despite a shrinking defence budget.

But expensive weapons can’t solve all of Indonesia’s defence challenges.

Its reliance on several foreign suppliers – including Russia – over the years means its existing hardware is burdened by interoperability problems, said Evan Laksmana, senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

Military efficiency is also hampered by a glut of new recruits and a rapid system of rotation that can see troops change roles after a matter of months, he said.”

[Amidst itemising Indonesia's “US$14 billion deal to purchase 36 new F-15 jets from Boeing” and “Indonesia had already placed an order for 42 Rafale fighter jets in a US$8.1 billion” the article indicates “Indonesia is in talks to buy two Scorpene-class attack submarines” and Indonesia might “like to expand ties with the Quad”.

About AUKUS “Australia is still planning to buy nuclear submarine technology from the US and Britain – a move that officials in Jakarta remain sharply critical of.”

In a similar situation with Australia’s trade reliance on China the article advises]

“Indonesia has to tread carefully given its economy depends on China: total trade between the two nations neared US$114 billion last year, according to IMF import data. The US was a distant second at US$37 billion.”

There is much more in this excellent Straits Times article. 

++++++++++++++++

Separately see the very close proximity, below, of Indonesia's Natuna Islands to China's "Nine-Dash Line" claim part explaining the territorial controversy.

Map courtesy UNCLOS via Radio Free Asia in 2020
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Ukraine: Peace Plan in our Time, I hope.

Well if Presidents Zelensky, Putin and Biden pleaded with me (as is their want) to draw up a Peace Plan, I thought you guys should see the Draft first before I present it to these three needy presidents. The Draft Plan plan is:

1 - Russian forces withdraw from mainland (including eastern) Ukraine to the international border as it was in 2013 (ie. before the 2014 (onwards) Russo-Ukrainian War).

2 - Ukraine should be invited to join the EU and NATO, and

Before you say “Putin won’t accept this!”

The following is the kicker:

3 - Ukraine cedes Crimea to Russia.

Russia really values its Sevastopol, Crimea, Naval Base and would battle for years to keep it. Both sides need to give a bit otherwise the war will continue for years. The whole world is suffering from this war.

Next Step

If there is Submarine Matters reader agreement or a slightly alteration of 1, 2 and 3 I’ll pass it on to the three needy presidents, who will be so grateful for our work.

Japan in Future "JAUKUS"? : F-35 Exchange.

Australia's government owned ABC News, December 9/10, 2022, reports in part:

"Australia's 'indispensable' partnership with Japan could see it join AUKUS pact as strategic links grow"

[Australian] Defence Minister Richard Marles has sent a clear signal that Australia would like Japan to be included in the AUKUS pact [with Japan it might be called "JAUKUS"] with the United States and the United Kingdom, declaring that security ties between [Japan] and [Australia] were becoming "indispensable".

Both countries have also committed to more complex and sophisticated defence exercises, including potentially rotating Japanese F-35 fighter jets in Australia in the future, in another sign of strategic convergence between the two countries.

Mr Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong met with their Japanese counterparts, Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada and Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi in Tokyo on [December 9, 2022] for their annual meeting dubbed the 'two-plus-two'.

[Sources claim] there is no chance that Japan will look to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under JAUKUS, Australian officials have made it clear that [Japan] could be included in separate work under [JAUKUS] develop advanced defence technology capabilities. 

…[Defence Minister Marles] “said both countries had "benefited from the United States' network of alliances" but were now "poised to build the Japan-Australia relationship as a powerful force in its own right" — citing two landmark security pacts signed this year.

This included the Reciprocal Access Agreement, which will allow reciprocal access for defence personnel to conduct joint military training and missions.

"The Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation and the Reciprocal Access Agreement mean we now have the road map to take our partnership to a very different place — a better place," he said.

"Our partnership is becoming indispensable."

This deepening relationship was at a time when China was embarking on the "largest military build-up since World War 2"…Marles said. 

"This is the most significant factor shaping the strategic landscape in which Australia, and Japan exist." 

RAAF's F-35s to Japan for exercises

The joint statement from the defence and foreign ministers of both countries commits both nations to "accelerating the consideration" of bringing Japan's F-35s to Australia "with an eye to future rotational deployment of Japan's fighters including F-35s in Australia".

It also points out that Royal Australian Air Force F-35s will go to Japan next year for the first time to participate in military exercises.

The joint statement says both countries also want to discuss "enhancing the complexity of Japan Self Defence Forces' participation in Exercise Talisman Sabre" — a major multilateral training exercise in northern Australia.

It also flags conducting "submarine search and rescue training between the [Japanese Navy] and the Royal Australian Navy" as well as "amphibious operations, exercises and guided weapon live-fire drills".

(Standing left to right) Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Defence Minister Richard Marles with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada, in Tokyo for 'two-plus-two' talks on December 9, 2022. 

SSN Maintenance at FBW: Also B-21 Turnoffs.

In response to Anonymous' interesting comment of December 6, 2022: 

FLEET BASE WEST (FBW) SSN MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR 

USN SSNs, and to a lesser extent their SSGNs, seem to be the most frequent foreign sub visitors to FBW / HMAS Stirling - see my "US Nuclear Subs Visiting Fleet Base West, WA since 2005" 

If a US submarine tender (probably of the Emory S. Land-class or replacement class) was stationed at FBW it could handle routine maintenance of US SSNs. It would probably take 15+ years to build such a ship (and/or shore facilities) and train up RAN personnel to have equivalent SSN maintenance skills. 

The USN's Guam base, then Yokosuka (Japan) Base, then Pearl Harbour could complete ever increasing deeper maintenance and some repairs. 

Then US Naval Base Kitsap-Bremerton, Washington State and/or San Diego for the deepest SSN maintenance and greater repairs. 

Note, that all these US Pacific Bases are much closer than the UK. This is a major argument for Australia choosing US designed SSNs rather than UK designed SSNs.  

+++++++++++++++++ 

Some maintenance at FBW for the infrequent visits of UK and French SSNs may one day be possible. If Australia chooses a UK SSN design then maintenance and repair of UK SSNs may be possible after 2040. 

If a UK design is not chosen then deeper maintenance and repair facilities might be best done in far off northern hemisphere UK (and of course French) submarine yards - with damaged subs being carried by Heavy Lift Ship.

In the 2040s, if RAN SSNs are built, by then, in Adelaide, then that may be the best place for major repair and deep maintenance of RAN SSNs. FBW would then (after 2040) be the best place for minor repair and routine maintenance of RAN SSNs. 

+++++++++++++++

BUYING B-21s?

Like Anonymous I'm also not enthusiastic about B-21s. Due to the following: 

- the average infrastructure and project cost for Australia, may be A$45+ Billion for 12 x B-21s. This is based on US$2.13 billion per earlier/similar B-2 in 1997 dollars. Contrary to aircraft maker claims, new types of military jet aircraft are always more expensive - especially if Australia needs to build B-21  infrastructure from scratch. Also very high maintenance costs per B-21 flight hour should be anticipated. 

- the delay getting them operational in the RAAF (just a few years before Australian SSNs might enter service). See this estimate: 

"The timing for achieving a fully operational capability in a maritime strike role in the Royal Australian Air Force is hard to estimate given the B-21’s current status and the delays already experienced. The 2040s, or later, seems reasonable." 

- to get full value B-21s are envisaged as dual-weapon capable ie. can also be nuclear armed. Is Australia willing to nuclear bomb Chinese fleets or the Chinese mainland? 

and 

- a RAAF B-21 squadron base in Australia could always be pre-emptively struck by (even mere) conventional warhead Chinese ballistic or hypersonic cruise missiles.

Walrus Replacement Process: Excellent Description

Giving great insights into Dutch politics “Locum” made very interesting comments on the Walrus Replacement Process, on December 5, 2022 at 8:12 AM and 8:13 AM, as follows.

"Das Boot, Which Boat?

[Which submarine type may replace the Netherland’s 4 Walrus-class submarines?]

The 73 meter long TKMS Type 212CD submerged tonnage is 3,200 (metric) tonnes. While the 80+ meter long Type 212CD E’s submerged displacement is 3,500 tonnes.

The prototype and launching customer for the Type 212CD E is the [Israeli] 'Dolphin 3' / Dakar-class. 

The English Wikipedia page of the Dutch Walrus class states incorrectly that TKMS is offering the future "Type 212CD". In fact TKMS is offering the larger Type 212CD E derivative that has 80 - 90 % commonality with the Type 212CD. (For comparison: the French Tigre helicopter and Aussie Tiger Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter (ARH) have a commonality of 80 %). The 212CD E [offered to] the Netherlands comes without the VLS. And the standard DM2A4 Sea Hake torpedo's will be swapped for the Mk 48.

Long range cruise missiles in the eventually Dutch 212CD E's will be launched via the torpedo tubes.

The Dutch navy originally specified the Thales 2076 sonar. This is because since WW2 the Dutch navy have been cooperating with the UK Royal Navy's submarine service. However, the sensor equipment has a significant impact on the overall submarine design. Therefore the integration of the Thales 2076 into, for example the Type 212CD E or the Shortfin Barracuda, would be [excessively expensive]. So the Dutch navy dropped the Thales 2076 requirement for the Walrus replacement.

Politics & Industrial Participation

The Walrus wiki page is correct about 2 conflicting groups. One group, the Dutch navy and Netherlands industry, want a Walrus 2.0 [as large and capable as the existing Walrus subs]. So the Dutch navy has the most freedom to fulfil their requirements and the Dutch industrial participation will be maximal.

The other group wants to import a submarine, at the lowest possible costs and risks [this would be a smaller typical Eurosub, perhaps only 2,200 tonnes submerged].

Wiki is incorrect, in stating that the Walrus replacement process started in “November 2014”. The then Dutch Secretary of Defense Ms Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert had already signed in the first half of 2013 a Memoranda of Understanding with Norway and Germany regarding close submarine development (then called Type 212 NG [Next Generation]). The planned in-service date for the first Walrus replacement was, at that stage, envisaged to be 2025.

January 2015. Damen Schelde and Saab-Kockums signed a deal to design a Walrus replacement together. (Saab-Kockums offered the Type 712 or C71 a purely Swedish design [based on the future A26].) The reason for this is that the Netherlands had already lost the [indigenous capability to design and build submarines in 1994]. In 1994, the Dutch government decided not to replace the 2 Zwaardvis (Swordfish) class boats. Therefore the Dutch submarine service was cut form 6 to just 4 boats. The Dutch submarine manufacturer RDM (Rotterdam Droogdok Maatschappij, which translates as Rotterdam Drydock Society) managed to survive until 2004. After that, the Dutch lost at least 20% of their submarine building knowledge.

The then SecDef Jeanine Hennis was certainly not pleased with this Damen-Saab  cooperation. Because it made her choice for the winning shipyard more difficult. However, this Damen-Saab cooperation was backed by the Dutch navy and Dutch industry.

Consensus & Compromise

The Dutch Low Lands are mostly flat and have often a low sky of clouds. If you are sticking out your head with a great idea or achievement, it will be 'chopped off'.

And ten Dutchmen have 10 often conflicting opinions.

So in the Netherlands decisions are always taken when there is a consensus by compromise between these often conflicting groups / parties.

With no consensus in 2013 - 2015, first the decision for a new boat was delayed 2 years. Not only the Department of Defense, but also the Department of Finance, the Dept. of Foreign Affairs, Dept. of Trade (Economic Affairs) and the Dept. of General Affairs (the Prime Minister) became involved. Five departments with often conflicting political agendas.

So a 'sounding board' (klankbord) [committee] for the Walrus replacement was set up. This small group, included a former Air Force general and a former Shell Oil CEO, but had no (former) Dutch navy official. Their conclusion: was an options list for the Walrus-replacement:

1. [large] expeditionary subs,
2. [smaller] homeland defense (coastal) boats,
3. unmanned / autonomous boats, and
4: no replacement at all.

Next step was an approx 1 year research period to set up a "future vision" for the Dutch submarine service. [But] the Dutch navy had already, in 2012-2013, expressed their general requirements for an expeditionary Walrus-replacement, in a crystal clear and public way.

2017. The SecDef, 'just to make this process easier' [not], added Navantia and DCNS (now Naval Group) to the shortlist.

2018 - 2019. The Walrus-replacement process was delayed again by approx 1 year. Because politicians wanted to secure the Dutch industrial participation in the Walrus-replacement process.

The resulting Defense Industry Strategy (DIS), was in fact '20 year old wine in new bags'.

December 2019, Navantia was chucked out, the afterwards given reason was that the S-80 Plus-class boat did not offer enough functionality. The Acquisition phase was started with the dialogue sub-phase by submitting the third (!) Request For Information to Saab-Kockums, TKMS and the Naval Group.

In the spring of 2020, the Walrus-replacement process was delayed again, because the Dutch General Accountability Office (Algemene Rekenkamer) wanted an audit.

In this audit , the same questions were asked again, questions same as those asked by the "sounding board (klankbord)" of 2015 / 2016.

December 2021. The current 'purple' (joint DoD wide) Dutch Defense Materiel Organisation (DMO) is smaller than the former 'blue only' Directorate Materiel Royal Dutch Navy. This DMO lacks the capacity and capability to do this dialogue with 3-4 shipyards at the same time. Because the Dutch have still made no choice for a shipyard. Their Request for Proposals had to be vague, in order not to give away classified specifications to third parties. And the shipyards 'kept their cards close to their chests' too.

This made the dialogue phase ineffective and it was stopped at the end of 2021.

The process was made faster and simpler, by setting up a Request For Quotations, which were sent at November 16, 2022. 

The 3 shipyards need approx 6 - 9 months to set up their quotations. The Dutch DoD expects that the winner will be announced at the end of 2023. The Dutch DoD demands that the time from building to commissioning takes a maximum of 10 years.

The current plan is that the first 2 Walrus-replacement boats enter service between 2034 - 2037.

Locum"

Rare Report SSBN: USS West Virginia at Diego Garcia: Australia?

Pete Comment

I think it is rare that a US SSBN is reported visiting an Indian Ocean port, particularly to occasionally controversial Diego Garcia. Also note, in the Report  below, USS West Virginia is home based in the Atlantic (not Pacific) specifically at Kings Bay, Georgia. 

This publicized Indian Ocean presence may be partly for Putin's benefit, reminding him that however much he nuclear sabre-rattles, he is surrounded by US SLBMs. This includes central Russia's 31st and 33rd Rocket Army ICBM heartland.

I assume from Kings Bay this SSBN rounded the Cape of Good Hope (Southern Africa) to get into the Indian Ocean. Or perhaps it took the longer way round - around Cape Horn and then around "Australia's" Southern Ocean into the Indian Ocean (certainly not through the narrows of the Indonesian archipelago). 

This is also assuming this SSBN does not attempt Arctic Ocean sea-routes that are presumably over-frequented by Russian SSNs and other Russian ASW platforms. 

Once Australia's navy has its own SSNs one major role may be contributing to the defence of US and UK SSBNs. This would more directly involve Australia's navy in the US and UK(?) extended nuclear deterrent that covers Australia. Perhaps that has been put into words in a secret part of the AUKUS agreement. SSNs from Australia's main submarine Fleet Base West (near Perth) 2040s onwards, may be well situated to intercept China's increasingly frequent SSNs and even SSBNs entering and leaving the Indian Ocean.

Australia's Fleet Base West may increasingly serve as a more comfortable (also a   duplicate) Indian Ocean base for US nuclear sub visits, especially for crew changeovers. 

Report 

 US DoD’s unified Strategic Command, November 28, 2022, reports:

"USS West Virginia visits Diego Garcia during extended deterrence patrol

By U.S. Strategic Command Public Affairs

DIEGO GARCIA, British Indian Ocean Territory

 - The Ohio-class ballistic missile   submarine USS West Virginia (SSBN 736) stopped in Diego Garcia for a brief port visit Oct. 25-31, 2022, during an extended deterrence patrol providing security and stability to our Allies.

The visit, part of West Virginia's sustained deterrence operations in the United States Central Command and Indo-Pacific Command areas of responsibility, emphasizes the unmatched capabilities of a ballistic missile submarine to deter and, if necessary, respond from anywhere on the globe.

"Every operational plan rests on the assumption that nuclear deterrence is holding, and SSBNs like West Virginia are vital to a credible nuclear deterrence for the United States and our Allies," said Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command.

West Virginia is one of 14 Ohio-class SSBNs that make up the most survivable leg of the nuclear triad by serving as an undetectable launch platform for submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Before visiting Diego Garcia, West Virginia surfaced to embark Gen. Michael Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, in the Arabian Sea and participated in a joint, U.S. Strategic Command-directed communications exercise to validate emerging and innovative tactics in the Indian Ocean.

"West Virginia, like each of our ballistic missile submarines, is specifically designed for extended deterrent patrols," said Vice Adm. William Houston, commander of Naval Submarine Forces. "The stealth and response capability of these submarines combined with the crew's training make our SSBNs the most powerful warships in the world."

The submarine also conducted a complete crew exchange in Diego Garcia and a subsequent replenishment at sea, highlighting the SSBN force's readiness and flexibility to remain on patrol for an extended period of time.

West Virginia is one of six ballistic-missile submarines stationed at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia, and can carry up to 20 submarine-launched ballistic missiles with multiple warheads.

Submarine Forces execute the Department of the Navy's strategic deterrence mission in and from the undersea domain. In addition to lending added capacity to naval forces, Submarine Forces, in particular, are expected to leverage those unique advantages that come with undersea concealment to permit operational, deterrent, and combat effects that the Navy and the nation could not otherwise achieve.

U.S. Strategic Command forces operate around the world, around the clock, to deter strategic attacks and employ forces as directed to guarantee the security of our Nation and our Allies. For more information about U.S. Strategic Command, visit https://www.stratcom.mil/. "

USS West Virginia (SSBN 736) docking at Diego Garcia. See the very short official Stratcom Youtube of the visit.
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US 2022 China Military Power Report out today: Submarines

The Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report was released today, Nov 29, 2022 (Nov 30 Australian time).

It carries the full name "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China". This Congressionally-mandated report serves as an authoritative assessment of the US DoD's pacing challenge and charts the current course of the PRC's military and security strategy.

This follows the DoD’s release of its unclassified National Defense Strategy in October 2022, which "identified the PRC as the most consequential and systemic challenge to U.S. national security and a free and open international system." 

The full 196 page .PDF "2022 China Military Power Report" is HERE.

Major mentions of submarines in it include:

Page XIII - "As the top ship-producing nation in the world by tonnage, the PRC is increasing its shipbuilding capacity and capability for all naval classes: submarines, warships, and auxiliary and amphibious ships. China also has developed underwater systems, publicly revealing a long-range system in 2019 [More on that long range system(s) here and here].

Page 52 – “Submarines. The PLAN has placed a high priority on modernizing its submarine force, but its force structure continues to grow modestly as it works to mature its force, integrate new technologies, and expand its shipyards.

The PLAN currently operates six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), six nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN), and 44 diesel-powered/air-independent powered attack submarines (SS/SSP). 

The PLAN will likely maintain between 65 and 70 submarines through the 2020s, replacing older units with more capable units on a near one-to-one basis.

The PRC continues to increase its inventory of conventional submarines capable of firing advanced anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM). Between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, the PLAN purchased 12 Russian-built KILO class SS units, eight of which are capable of launching ASCMs. China’s shipyards have delivered 13 SONG class SS units (Type 039) and 17 YUAN class diesel-electric air-independent propulsion attack submarine (SSP) (Type 039A/B). The PRC is expected to produce a total of 25 or more YUAN class submarines by

Page 53 – “2025. In late 2021, the PLAN retired the first two KILO class submarines purchased from Russia in the 1990s. Over the past 15 years, the PLAN has constructed twelve nuclear submarines – two SHANG I class SSNs (Type 093), four SHANG II class SSNs (Type 093A), and six JIN class SSBNs (Type 094). Equipped with the CSS-N-14 (JL-2) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) (7,200KM), the PLAN’s six operational JIN class SSBNs represent the PRC’s first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent. By the mid-2020s, China will likely build the SHANG class (Type 093B) guided-missile nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSGN). This new SHANG class variant will enhance the PLAN’s anti-surface warfare capability and could provide a clandestine land-attack option if equipped with land-attack cruise missiles (LACM). The PLAN is also improving its antisubmarine warfare (ASW) capabilities through the development of its surface combatants and special mission aircraft, but it continues to lack a robust deep-water ASW capability. By prioritizing the acquisition of ASW capable surface combatants, acoustic surveillance ships, and fixed and rotary wing ASW capable aircraft, the PLAN is significantly improving its ASW capabilities. However, it will still require several years of training and systems integration for the PLAN to develop a robust offensive deep water ASW capability.

Page 54 - Eight of the PLAN’s 10 KILO class SSs are equipped with the Russian built SS-N-27b [Kalibr] ASCM (120NM, 220KM). The PRC’s SONG class SS, YUAN class SSP, and SHANG class SSN field the PLAN’s newest domestic submarine launched YJ-18 and its variants, which constitute an improvement over the SS-N-27b ASCM… As the PLAN continues to transition into a global multi-mission force, the addition of landattack capabilities to its modern array of anti-surface and anti-air capabilities is a logical next step. 

In the coming years, the PLAN will probably field LACMs on its newer cruisers and destroyers and developmental SHANG class Type 093B SSGN. The PLAN could also retrofit its older surface combatants and submarines with land-attack capabilities as well. The addition of land-attack capabilities to the PLAN’s surface combatants and submarines would provide the PLA with flexible long-range strike options. This would allow the PRC to hold land targets at risk beyond the Indo-Pacific region. 

Page 94 – “The PRC is conducting continuous at-sea deterrence patrols with its six JIN-class (Type 094) submarines (SSBNs), which are equipped to carry up to 12 JL-2 or JL-3 SLBMs.”

Page 96 – “Sea-based Platforms. The PRC likely began near-continuous at-sea deterrence patrols with its six operational JIN class SSBNs, which are equipped to carry up to 12 CSS-N-14 (JL-2) or CSS-NX-20 (JL-3) SLBMs.

The PRC’s next-generation Type 096 SSBN is probably intended to field MIRVed SLBMs judging from past developmental trends. The 096 SSBNs will likely begin construction in the early-2020s. Based on the 30-plus-year service life of the PRC’s first generation SSNs, the PRC will operate its [Type 094] JIN and Type 096 SSBN fleets concurrently.

The current range limitations of the JL-2 will require the JIN to operate in areas north and east of Hawaii if the PRC seeks to target the east coast of the United States. The fielding of newer, more capable, and longer ranged SLBMs such as the JL-3 gives the PLAN the ability to target the continental United States from littoral waters allowing the PLAN to consider bastion operations to enhance the survivability of its sea-based deterrent. The South China Sea and Bohai Gulf are probably the PRC’s preferred options for employing this concept.

Page 166 – see “Taiwan Strait Military Balance, Naval Forces” table, which includes submarines [heavily in China’s favour]

[As I can't convert .PDF to .html below is last year's table, courtesy Econbrowser. Until the 2022 Table is available in .html].