Well if Presidents Zelensky,
Putin and Biden pleaded with me (as is their want) to draw up a Peace Plan, I thought
you guys should see the Draft first before I present it to these three needy
presidents. The Draft Plan plan is:
1 - Russian forces withdraw from mainland (including eastern) Ukraine to the international border as it was in 2013 (ie. before the 2014 (onwards) Russo-Ukrainian War).
2 - Ukraine should be invited to
join the EU and NATO, and
Before you say “Putin won’t
accept this!”
The following is the kicker:
3 - Ukraine cedes Crimea to
Russia.
Russia really values its Sevastopol, Crimea, Naval Base and would battle for years to keep it. Both sides need to give a bit otherwise the war will continue for years. The whole world is suffering from this war.
Next Step
If there is Submarine Matters reader agreement or a slightly alteration of 1, 2 and 3 I’ll pass it on to the three needy presidents, who will be so grateful for our work.
16 comments:
Not realistic - now - its bad, but its fact - all will be decide on the battlefield and etc
This conflict is a Russian civil war with elements of foreign intervention - like in 1918-19 - then the Australians went "hunting Russians" - and the Russians remember this ...
The matter is not easy to resolve. On the surface, yes I agree invading Ukraine was not a bright idea. having said that the US should have listened to the advice from Foggybottom in the late 1990s and ensured NATO did not needlessly expand.
They could have achieved the same outcome through close economic integration via Single market agreement extension to interested Eastern European nations and armed them quietly and steadily. This entire song and dance of NATO expansion was needlessly inflaming (I agree that Warsaw pact nations saw NATO membership as logical given their experience with Russia historically, but the argument still stands that NATO was and is the wrong solution)
In any case it is all pearls before swine now and a day late and a dollar short.
While the idea of providing Russia with some sort of 'cordon sanitaire' would stick rightly in many peoples' craws, the unpalatable historical reality is that great powers have always tried to carve exceptions and striking a balance 'holding one's diplomatic noses' has been an age old practice.
Additionally, given the western border is mostly plains for Russia, its historical paranoia runs deep as the French and other invaders reached Moscow exactly by that route. No wonder the Russians have long memories and are very tetchy about Ukraine. A total bleeding mess. I am not justifying Russian actions one way or the other, simply observing what history has been.
PS: One could I suppose argue the flip side of the coin convincingly as well. however, historical examples are replete with 'great powers' always trying to carve exceptions for themselves. Imagine a waning UK still sits on the UNSC, controls territories like the Chagos islands etc. long after ceasing to be a world power in any meaningful sense. To expect Russia to quietly accept 'reality' seems wishful thinking to me. Putin and co will die before they give up...we should gird ourselves for a long grinding conflict.
Hi Igor
It could continue as an "endless" 20 year war, like the Vietnam War if India and China continue to support Russia and the West continues to support Ukraine.
I suspect freedom loving Ukrainians since 1982 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Post%E2%80%93war_Soviet_Ukraine
no longer consider themselves Russian.
Stalin's rule of Ukraine was far worse* than the (merely 100s? of Australian interventionists (in the British Army) fighting the "Reds" in the 1918-19 Russian Civil War.
++++++++++++++++
* See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
The Terror-Famine or the Great Famine, was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians. The Holodomor was part of the wider Soviet famine of 1932–1933 which affected the major grain-producing areas of the Soviet Union.
While scholars universally agree that the cause of the famine was man-made, whether the Holodomor constitutes a genocide remains in dispute. Some historians conclude that the famine was planned and exacerbated by Joseph Stalin in order to eliminate a Ukrainian independence movement."
Moscow has much to explain.
Regards Pete
Hi GhalibKabir @Dec 14, 2022, 3:34:00 PM
Yes Ukrainians having the hide to think their democratic and national rights to freedom stand higher than the latest, of a long line, of Russian Dictators efforts to own Ukraine by force.
Is almost as bad as Indians thinking that they have democratic and national rights to remain free of British (or broader Western...) dominance!
Cheers Pete
No mate, you get me wrong and it is unfair to characterize what I said as endorsing Russian colonialism over Ukraine. I have clearly said Ukraine's loathing of Russia is understandable, however NATO is not the solution and that there were things that could have been done since the 1990s instead of needlessly doing a meaningless song and dance over NATO.
Ukraine deserves to be left alone and Russia needs to withdraw back to pre-2014 lines and also negotiate a face saving solution for Crimea that assuages Ukraine first. (If I knew how I would have been rich by now lol ;) )
Russia shouldn't be allowed of think of Ukraine as a vassal state and at the same time, there needs to be some thought as to what strategic motives are achieved by giving Russia the impression of threatening its borders (no country would countenance missile interceptor batteries on its periphery as 'peaceful intent')...
my question is simple - why should EU/US deny reality just as they expect Russia to come to terms with the Eastern Europe's reality? Brushing off Russia's complaints as imagined grievances is not helpful is it? Of course now since Russia holds a gun to UKR's head, negotiations got a lot more harder. Diplomatic solutions are often unpalatable..why pretend otherwise?
Pete, you are a product of Russophobic propaganda - such a classic product, I can't help it!
We all have our nationalistic biases on this one. For the record I have a Finnish grandfather and Australian friends who were born in Ukraine (cousin fighting in Donbass for Ukraine right now) and three who were born in Russia, one of whom had to go back to care for her mother because of the war. So this war concerns me a lot but I have mixed views on it.
Overall I want very much for Ukraine to survive as a viable independent country. Conversely I want Russia to survive as an intact country too. If it crumbles I foresee wars all over central Asia as other former Soviet republics break away.
I think Pete’s suggestion of Russia withdrawing from mainland Ukraine (i.e. Donbass, Zaphorizia, balance of Kherson) and keeping Crimea permanently is pragmatic and would have been a smart negotiated settlement before the 2022 invasion. Russia would have had a political prize to save face for Putin and Ukraine would have had more defensible frontiers. Politically I doubt there is much chance of that now.
I think the nature of the invasion, behaviour of Russian troops (e.g. Bucha), strategy to bombard cities and civilian power infrastructure (when has that ever achieved anything other than strengthen enemy resolve??) and high civilian losses in Mariupol means there is very little likelihood of Ukraine accepting any peace deal now short of full Russian withdrawal. The more territory they win back, the stronger the political position of those in favour of continuing the war.
Conversely Putin can’t afford to accept any deal that leaves Russia worse off than it was at the start of 2022 because that would mean admitting over 80,000 Russia; casualties were lost for nothing. So politically I think it is a disaster.
If Russia starts having major battlefield successes that start taking significant Ukrainian territory then Ukraine’s position on accepting a negotiated peace could change fast. But I see no sign of that.
As long as the west (or even just USA plus eastern Europe) keeps supporting Ukraine I don’t see how Russia can win. The front is too long and Russian army troop numbers too small. The Germans had over one million men in Army Group South to control a similar length front in World War Two. Russia invaded with under 300,000 troops. Once all Ukrainian reserves are fully mobilised (1 million), armed, equipped and trained they will actually outnumber Russian forces within Ukraine. Plus logistic position of Russian forces is terrible, with only one rail line west of Mariupol.
Where does that leave us? I fear this will drag on for a few years, perhaps 3 to 5, before resolution. Crimea will be hard to recapture but I think in that time Ukraine will grind down and recapture rest of mainland Ukraine. Regardless of propaganda and conscript numbers the core of the Russian professional army is still strong and won’t crack. Likewise I think talk of coups in Russia is silly. So this will be slow and costly.
At the end, as long as Ukraine has its Black Sea ports and main grain areas it is an economically viable country. Any peace settlement that sees Russia look like a loser will weaken its ability to maintain peaceful borders in other regions. Once there is a permanent peace I predict Ukraine will then apply to join NATO and be accepted. But there is no chance of that till fighting is over.
We all know the prior history and I won’t comment on it other than to observe there have been some disastrous political miscalculations on both sides to reach this point.
Sorry for the long post.
NATO/US should have moved into Ukraine prior to the invasion. Would have stopped the whole mess. Now another 100000 will probably die
should have just moved troops in prior to this last invasion and or stocked Ukraine up before as well. Instead constantly switching the strength of support only encouraged the Russians. Now 100000s have died
Hi GhalibKabir @Dec 14, 2022, 7:39:00 PM
Taking your points in turn:
Yes I agree "Ukraine's loathing of Russia is understandable".
NATO membership has been, and remains, very effective, keeping Russia/USSR from invading NATO countries since NATO's inception.
Ukraine continues to deserve to be supported with arms and ammo from NATO (and Australia etc) and should be invited into NATO.
Zelensky and Putin need to make a deal. Otherwise the War, which began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, will last for many years (like the Indochina/Vietnam Wars (1946-1975) where roughly a "half of the world" supported each side, thus keeping the war going).
Putin needs to realise he is neither a Tsar nor a Stalin fighting against the West for his messianic glory. China, in the East, is probably becomming Russia's greatest threat.
Yes, I too, support a "Diplomatic solution" and that is probably all of a de-Russianised mainland Ukraine joining NATO in exchange for Crimea being ceded to Russia - that way Putin has part of a victory - not his whole imperialist dream.
Regards Pete
Hi Igor @Dec 14, 2022, 7:59:00 PM
I am actually an admirer of Russian propaganda eg. Russia's covert political influence campaign that ensured Trump won the 2016 Election.
With Trump (long financially indebted to Russia)
then becoming Russia's greatest Agent Of Influence
under the steady hand of Trump's controller, the excellent ex-KGB Case Officer Putin.
Regards Pete
Hi again Igor @Dec 14, 2022, 7:59:00 PM
On a more somber note: Russia has never been thanked enough by the West for Russians doing most of the fighting and dying against Hitler.
I indicate this in "Russian Sacrifice at Stalingrad: 1942-1943" of February 3, 2013 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2012/09/russian-sacrifice-at-stalingrad.html
Also see my neutral 2014 article "Ukraine: can anything save it?" of May 9, 2014, at https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=16286 when I also wrote for "ON LINE opinion"
Regards Pete
Hi suffolkowner @Dec 15, 2022, 7:30:00 AM and Dec 15, 2022, 8:41:00 AM
A certain segment of the population always blames NATO for Putin's aggression.
One could also have said Ukraine should not have given up the NUCLEAR WEAPONS remaining on its soil in 1994 under the Western and Russian agreed Budapest Memorandum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
Under that Memorandum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum for Ukraine agreeing to give up those Nuclear Weapons, Russia confirmed its recognition of Ukraine and Russia agreed to:
- Respect Ukraine's independence and sovereignty in the existing [1994] borders, and
- Russia agreed to refrain from the threat or the use of force against Ukraine.
But then again Putin can claim he never personally agreed to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
and Putin, after all, is the Holy Boss of Russia, like the Romanovs of Holy Russia before Putin.
Regards Pete
Thankyou so much Anonymous @Dec 14, 2022, 8:42:00 PM
For your views. You having friends and relatives with connections to Ukraine and Russia makes your comments all the more important.
You may well be right that the fighting (with civilians targeted) has become so bitter that neither side will negotiate.
Yet, I have a hunch that Western European nations (faced with sanction induced energy shortages, hence higher energy costs) are putting pressure on Zelensky to negotiate. This is particularly Germany and Poland with their especially harsh winters.
I agree that chaos caused by any “coup” against Putin would be very bad worldwide.
I still feel that even if its a long shot, Putin and Zelensky negotiating peace is far preferable to years more war.
Regards Pete
Putin, the Russian Bear, fails to tame the national animal of Ukraine, the Nightingale.
Why is that? Note https://youtu.be/IIE1g8kqIpk very carefully.
Thw Ukraine War at is basics, boils down to ownership of Crimea, specifically ownership of the very valuable Russian Naval Base of Sevastopol.
Sevastopol being permanently ceded to Russia SHOULD end the War, even if it takes until 2030 or until a massive nuclear exchange ends all Christmases on this Earth.
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