March 21, 2025

Rapid US-Russia Friendship Changing Nuke Sub World: France

Now that Russia is tending not to be seen as a threat by the US there may be  fewer US SSNs in the Atlantic Ocean facing Russian SSNs and Russian SSBNs, in the medium-long term. The Atlantic US SSNs may be relocated, with the main US SSN effort being against China (in the Pacific and Indian oceans) and against North Korea.

Whether Russian Pacific Fleet SSBNs, SSGNs and SSNs work in alliance to the Chinese submarine fleet is another uncertainty.

But as US forces and reliability as an ally desert Europe, the Russian threat is rising against the UK, France and the rest of Non US (NUS) NATO. 

The age old Russian Intelligence aim of splitting the Western, especially NATO, alliance is succeeding under Putin, a former KGB officer and FSB boss.

The splitting off of the US from NATO, might make accelerated production of SSNs and SSBNs for the French Navy and also UK Royal Navy a high priority. 

Instead of the planned 6 x SSNs of the Suffren class for France and 7 Astutes for the UK Royal Navy 2 more might be built of each.

The main job of these SSNs are to protect their own navy's SSBNs (leaving and entering port and maybe on patrol). Whether the rolling average of 4 SSBNs in each of the French and UK navies increases is unknown. The 4 new ones planned are the 4 x SNLE-3Gs and 4 x Dreadnoughts.

The reason Britain owns its current Vanguard-class SSBNs are as nuclear weapon platforms. But troublingly the warheads rely on regular US Tritium injections and the warhead guidance systems come from the US. Meanwhile the "UKs" Trident missiles are rented/leased from the US and the Trident's regular maintenance only takes place at King's Bay in  the US. So Britain really needs total Trident system autonomy to operate in Trump's Russian influenced brave new world. 

At least France's SSBNs,  M51 nuclear missiles and M51.1 TNO nuclear warheads are not reliant on a senior ally.

What all this means for Australia's possible basing of US SSNs in Australia (low  likelihood of UK SSNs being based here) and Australian SSN acquisition from the US, the UK or France, is difficult to predict. 

France's increasing need to strengthen its own SSN defences against Russia means French SSNs for any foreign customer is very unlikely. But this does not preclude France from renewing the conventional Shortfin Barracuda Block 1A (Attack-class) deal with Australia.

Russia, unopposed by the US, threatens Russia's European west and also Russia's Siberian east. The latter may present a higher threat to other countries (South Korea and Japan) that might conceivably supply conventional subs to  Australia. This may now make South Korea and Japan hesitant to supply submarines (conventional or, in future, nuclear) to Australia.

Low morale in the Australia's Infant Nuclear Sub Sector

No wonder there is low morale in Australia's infant nuclear submarine sector https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/05/australian-submarine-agency-morale-crisis-asa-nuclear-submarines The pay is high though.

The newly minted UK trained RAN nuclear engineers might find themselves largely side-lined - waiting 20 years till UK built SSN-AUKUS are available. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/aussie-submariners-qualify-as-royal-navy-nuclear-engineers/ There being no Aus Virginias likely. 

With the America first policy US Virginias might not be based in Australia's Fleet Base West after all. Instead Guam, Hawaii and even Diego Garcia might remain more frequented bases.

There are too few Astutes even for Northern Hemisphere service in the Royal Navy with permanent Astute basing in Fleet Base West or even substantial rotations never a serious prospect.

Current RAN nuclear engineers might serve out their career on Royal Navy subs - less likely on US subs - if Australia is "fired" as a US ally. 

March 16, 2025

Updated Japanese Submarine Table: 4th Taigei Commissioned

INTRODUCTION

Japan uses a continuous build (1 new submarine per year) system. New classes (the Taigeis are the latest) are created every 10 years or so. Production is shared between Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI). There are gradual improvements (often in diesel, snorkel and sensor systems) within classes and between classes.

Also see SubMatt's Updated History & Photos of Japanese Submarines After WWII of January 17, 2015 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/01/history-of-japanese-submarine-after-wwii.html It contains a vast amount of Japanese originated information on Japanese submarines. From the end of WWII (September 2, 1945) to June 30, 1960 Japan had no operational submarines. 

From December 1957 Japan restarted submarine production based on US experience (eg US Gato class) and based on long institutional experience building advanced submarines for the former WWII 
Imperial Japanese Navy.

The latest news, in the Table below, is the commissioning, on March 6, 2025, of the 4th Taigei-class submarine named Raigei "Thunder Whale"  at KHI's shipyard. It may have between 640 and 960 "SLH" (a semi-secret designation) LIBs which are charged by 2 x 12V25/25SB diesels or variants (total 4,240kW of power)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

TABLE

This Table is unique to Submarine Matters mainly created by "S" Anonymous and Pete.

Japan's Diesel-Electric Classes of Submarine (SSKs)

The Second Oyashio class-Soryus-Taigeis as at March 8, 2025. 

SS
No.
Diesel Type
Motor
Build No
Name
Pennant
No.
Ministry of Finance (MoF) approved
Ministry of
Defense Budget
in Billions of
Yen (¥B)
LABs +
AIP:
or LIBs
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Comm
i
ssion
ed
Built
By
5SS + 6SS
now training

Oyashios
8105 +
8106 Oya
shio
¥52.2B FY1993
2 x 12V25/25S 
diesels for all
Oyashio class
(each diesel
2,000kW)
LABs only
1994 & 1995
1996 &
1997
Built
at
KHI
7SS-15SS
8 active Oyashios 
10 subs
SMC-7?
8107
-8115
various
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 15SS Feb
2004
15SS
Nov
2006
15SS
Mar 2008
MHI
&
KHI
16SS
12
Active

Soryus/
Dragon
class  Mk I
8116
Sōryū
means
dragon
2,900 tonnes
surf-
aced
SS-501
¥60B FY2004 
Mk.1 LAB+AIP Soryus have 2 x Kawasaki 
+ a SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
Built
at
MHI

Home
Port
Kure
17SS
8117
Unryū
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
Kure
18SS
8118
Hakuryū
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
Kure
19SS
8119
Kenryū
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
Kure
20SS
8120
Zuiryū
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
Yokosuka
21SS LIBs Concept
Research
Project
No 21SS built. It was an 8 year research project on LIBs. 1st LIBs sub launched was 27SS in 2018.
   


22SS
8121
Kokuryū
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
Yokosuka
23SS
8122
Jinryu
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
7 Mar 2016
MHI
Kure
24SS
8123
Sekiryū
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
KHI
Kure
25SS
8124
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
22 Oct 2013
12 Oct   2016
MHI
Yokosuka
26SS
8125
SS-510
¥51.7B FY2014
last SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
2014
6 Nov 2017
KHI
Kure
27SS a Soryu
"Mk II" as it
has LIBs. 1st
Soryu
Mk II 
8126
Oryū
11th
Soryu
SS-511
¥64.4B FY2015 
with 2 12V25/25SB diesels (totaling 4,240kW) 
SMC-8B motor. [Wispy & 
Anon
agree it has 640 LIB/SLH modules], other improvements
LIBs only
(SLH type)
Nov
2015
4 Oct
2018
2020
MHI
Kure
28SS Soryu
Mk II, 12th &
final Soryu
8127
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
"2,950t" surfaced
12V25/25SB 
diesels
[
Wispy & Anon 
agree
 it has 640 LIB/SLH modules],
LIBs
Jan 2017
KHI
Yokosuka
29SS
1st
Taigei
Class

means
Whale
3,000 tonne
(surfaced)
8128
Taigei
"Big 
whale
"

Used as
a test
sub. Not
opera-
tional
SS-513
¥76B FY2017 (Heisei 29)
Higher ¥76budget 
may be due to 1st of class many changes. 
2 x
4,240kW)[Wispy 
says 640 LIB/SLH modules, 
Anon says 720.]
SLH
LIBs
maybe
960

14 Oct
2020
 
9 Mar 2022
MHI

Home
Port
Yokosuka
30SS 
2nd Taigei Class 
8129
Hakugei
"White
whale
"
First
opera-
tional
Taigei

SS-514
¥71.5B FY2018 
(Heisei 30)
says 640 LIB/SLH modules, Anon says 720.]
SLH
LIBs
KHI

Home
Port
Kure
01SS 
3rd
Taigei Class
8130
Jingei
"Swift
whale
"
SLH
LIBs
maybe
960+
8 Mar
2024
MHI
02SS 
4th
Taigei Class 
8131
Raigei
Thunder
whale
SS-516
Impro
ved SLH
LIBs
26 Mar
2021
Mar 6
2025
KHI
03SS
4th or 5th?
Taigei Class
SS-517
LIBs 
19 Apr
2022
March
2026?
MHI
04SS
SS-518
LIBs
2022?
KHI
05SS 
8134
SS-519
LIBs
2023?
2025?
2027?
MHI
06SS
8135
SS-520
¥95.00FY2024 
enhanced detection
capabilities to
effectively conduct
info gathering
warning &
surveillance
page 24  
[1]
LIBs 
2024?
2026?
2028?
KHI
07SS 
8136
SS-521
¥B? FY2025
LIBs
2025?
2027?
2029?
MHI
08SS 
8137
SS-522
¥B? FY2026

LIBs
2026?
2028?2030?
KHI
Key to Table: Table information provided by S = Anonymous to Submarine MattersLABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP = air independent propulsion, LIBs = Lithium-ion Batteries. 
¥***B
 = Billion Yen. MHI = Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, KHI = Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries. 
---

[1] Japanese “Ministry of Defense Progress and Budget in Fundamental Reinforcement of Defense Capabilities: Overview of the FY2024 Budget” page 23 
at 
https://www.mod.go.jp/en/d_act/d_budget/pdf/20240607a.pdf

From the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MOD): "Defense Budget" List going back to Financial Year FY2020 at https://www.mod.go.jp/en/d_act/d_budget/index.html

March 13, 2025

Canadian Defence Strategy vs US Aggression - Greenland?

This is national defense plan for Canada in the increasingly credible likelihood of conflict with the United States. Greenland-Denmark (the subject of a future article) is even in more need of a strategy against Russian inspired American aggression.

Ukraine would be the most recent example of a successful defence (perhaps temporary) against a superpower aggressor. 

For Canada that might entail:

Stockpiling of food, spare parts, gas/oil/coal and other essentials from now.

Intelligence gathering (by Canadian Military IntelligenceCSIS Humint, CSE Sigint and Imagery including Canada's Sapphire and Gray Jay satellites) by Canada and Canada's non-US allies concerning:

- US intentions
- changes in US military dispositions and preparations
- ratcheting up of US economic measures (including blockades) against Canada
- Trump's daily communications with, and instructions from Russia

Ongoing analyses of the above collected intelligence. Also an analysis of Trump's many statements which may signal US intentions.

Because of much larger US numbers Canada would be better served by a highly dispersed insurgent strategy than contemplating open battle. This would include:

-  Canadian military and militia use of man portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft/helicopter/drone weapons. 

-  Canadian use of defensive aerial drones, landmines, sea mines and sea drones (UUVs and USVs). 

Canada must reinforce the reality that it is a victim fighting a defensive war.  against Trump's Fascism This could be communicated by a soft-power campaign communicating that message to the international democratic community. That community would include remaining American progressives who must be persuaded that conflict is not in the interests of ordinary Americans.

Justin Trudeau should continue to be seen as the leader of the Canadian freedom. Trudeau should be protected from US or domestic assassination attempts.

March 10, 2025

Australia looks to France for SSHNs & Nuke Weapons

Middle power Australia can no longer assume we are protected by the US nuclear umbrella. In fact Trump's radical shift to Russia is instructive. In a new SSN concept nuclear armed hypersonic (H) missiles on SSHNs might, for middle powers, be the deterrent of choice against China and Russia. I thank the commenters from this article for the words below. 

With the Russia-US alliance (RUS) the democratic world is losing confidence in US security guarantees. This includes Australia regarding the QUAD and AUKUS. There are multiple examples coming out now of US isolationism which is more manifestly pro-Russian https://news.online.ua/en/the-us-is-ending-support-for-ukrainian-f-16s-but-there-is-a-way-out-891472/
and
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/08/america-vetoes-g7-proposal-to-combat-russias-shadow-fleet-of-oil-tankers

Trump and Vance lead the surrender to Russia. But at the US Defense coalface it is Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee for Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, who flags the end of the AUKUS Virginia option. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/trump-pick-for-pentagon-says-selling-submarines-to-australia-would-be-crazy-if-taiwan-tensions-flare

Colby is likely to kill the Virginias for Australia in the near term. This is even before the US Presidential decision of the early 2030s kills the Virginia option - responding to USN advice that the US until the 2040s will lack Virginias even for protection of the US heartland. China's long awaited mass protection of SSNs and SSBNs will outstrip America's already low rate of SSN availability. Meanwhile the UK industrial base appears unable to deliver SSN-AUKUS before 2045 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c871e41751yo  

In any case British SSN availability to Australia relies on US techno-legal permissions. US veto power over British autonomy is underwritten by the US developed and Kings Bay, US, supplied Trident IIs/D5s which are Britain's only nuclear warhead delivery type. 

At the same time, the current Australian Government and Opposition, at the public level, are in denial over the emerging Russia-US alliance. Australia’s vain Defence Minister Marles has always placed his political career over responsibility. See his denials here https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/transcripts/2025-03-06/television-interview-abc-730Australia's Canberra capital is, publicly at least, in a parallel universe of vain hope, that doesn't address the new Russia US alliance.

Unfortunately Japan and South Korea (SK) rely on US nuclear protection even more than Australia. Japanese Taigeis and SK KSS-IIIs, like all conventional submarines, lack the speed and range to be a viable Australian strategic weapon against China or Russia. Israel, as well, relies on US strategic and political protection. India, despite its nationalist protestations of autonomy, is reliant on Russia for nuclear submarine technology and, more secretly, Russian nuclear weapons tech.

Only less aligned country France https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c871e41751yo might sell nuclear submarines and nuclear weapons to Australia for a price. As Australia is now desperate - this runs contrary to my France can't help February 2025 articles here and here.

Peter Coates