tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-192458962024-03-19T19:48:20.376+11:00Submarine Matters & Australian Nuclear WeaponsI write about nuclear and conventionally powered Submarines as well as Missiles. This includes their selection, political and technical aspects. I write more broadly on other technical and geopolitical issues, including nuclear weapons.Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.comBlogger2322125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-51450542286162100222024-03-19T17:14:00.007+11:002024-03-19T17:22:40.501+11:00Australian Liberal’s Nuclear Policy Lacks Weapons<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 22.5pt;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #212529;">In Australia the myth of quick, easy, uncomplicated building anywhere of <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor#Economics" target="_blank">"economical" small modular reactor (SMR) projects</a></b> just won't die out. <br /><br /></span><span style="color: #212529;">Large conventional reactors of over 3 GW, </span><b style="color: #212529;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_France#Nuclear" target="_blank">as in France</a>,</b><span style="color: #212529;"> make more sense in Australia. This is from a zero base of <b>no</b> power reactors in Australia at present. This will lead to decades-long legal, planning and political battles for each and every reactor project and nuclear waste dump in Australia. This will be followed by 2 decades of construction and high security protection costs for reactors and waste dumps. <br /><br /></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif">The minority Australian Liberal Party's nuclear
electricity lobby, that makes outlandish claims, please take note of the following:</span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">71 years ago the Father of the US Nuclear
(propulsion) Navy and Father of the US electricity reactor in the US Atomic Energy
Commission, <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_G._Rickover" target="_blank">Admiral Rickover</a></b>, pointed out the nuclear ignorance of the likes of our Liberal Party.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">"Admiral Rickover's 'Paper Reactor'
Memo" written on June 5, 1953 at <b><a href="http://whatisnuclear.com/rickover.html">http://whatisnuclear.com/rickover.html</a></b>
is as accurate now as it was then. Rickover drew a distinction between:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: black; line-height: 150%;">A.</span></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: black; line-height: 150%;">
<b>academic "paper reactor" policy proponents</b> "The academic-reactor designer is
a dilettante. He has not had to assume any real responsibility in connection
with his projects." and<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: black; line-height: 150%;">B.</span></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: black; line-height: 150%;">
<b>those who actually build reactors.</b> Noting "Rickover oversaw the development of
the Shippingport Atomic Power Station, <b><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_G._Rickover#Naval_Reactors_and_the_Atomic_Energy_Commission" target="_blank">the [world's] first commercial</a></b>
pressurized water reactor nuclear power [ie. electricity] plant." </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">Wrote Rickover in 1953:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;"><b>A.</b> "<b>An academic reactor</b>...almost always has
the following basic characteristics:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">1. It is simple.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">2. It is small.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">3. It is cheap.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">4. It is light.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">5. It can be built very quickly.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">6. It is very flexible in purpose (“omnibus
reactor”)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">7. Very little development is required. It will
use mostly “off-the-shelf” components.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">8. The reactor is in the study phase. It is not
being built now."<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: black; line-height: 150%;">[eg. there is still no built SMR for sale on the
market.]<br /></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;"><b>B.</b> "On the other hand, <b>a practical reactor</b>
plant can be distinguished by the following characteristics:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">1. It is being built now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">2. It is behind schedule.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">3. It is requiring an immense amount of
development on apparently trivial items. Corrosion, in particular, is a
problem.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">4. It is very expensive.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">5. It takes a long time to build because of the
engineering development problems.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">6. It is large.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">7. It is heavy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">8. It is complicated."<br /><br /><span>Does all that sound familiar?</span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">The biggest political question is what majority of Australian voters
in a town, city, state or Electorate would welcome a reactor in their
"backyard"? Given that concern it is best to build a reactor on defence land, ie. long owned by the Federal Government, not somewhere pretty or with a long Aboriginal heritage (that will not be questioned).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;">The overarching reality is, unless a national nuclear industry has dual-use
civilian and <b>nuclear weapons</b> qualities (a reality the <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons#Criticism_and_responses" target="_blank">P5 early sprinters</a></b>, eg. the </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual-use_technology#Nuclear" style="font-weight: bold;" target="_blank">US, UK and France, exploited for THEMSELVES</a>)</span><b> </b><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;">Australia won't accept reactors
politically, economically or strategically.</span></span></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-13168973938227928102024-03-19T11:06:00.003+11:002024-03-19T17:45:59.405+11:00Orka-class Specifications Table: Dutch: Naval Group <div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">After internet searching no current, precise, detailed, list of Naval Group (<b>NG</b>) specifications (<b>specs</b>) for the Orkas have been located. Instead I've drawn together (and sometimes inferred) specs from a variety of <span>internet sources (see some links in the Table below). </span></span></div><div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>NG has limited</span> the publication of the Orkas' projected specs as keeping the specs secret for as long as politically possible is standard in the submarine industry for National Security and Commercial-in-Confidence reasons. Detailed specs would reflect some of the Netherlands’s more secret needs. NG and the Netherlands will gradually release more spec details.<br /><br />Now NG has won the Walrus replacement competition on the basis of the <b>March</b> 15, 2024 decision of the Dutch Council of Ministers. But the lower House of the Dutch Parliament, from debate beginning <b>March</b> 18, 2024, still needs to approve this decision. Best description of political situation is from the Netherland's <span style="background: white; color: #222a55;"><b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Nederland-kiest-voor-Franse-boten-150324.html" target="_blank">Jaime Karremann</a></b> </span><span style="background: white; color: #222a55;">the
founder of Marineschips.nl.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="background: white; color: #222a55;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Specs for preceding <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walrus-class_submarine" target="_blank">Walrus-class</a></b> and <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barracuda-class_submarine_(France)#Shortfin_Barracuda_conventional_variant" target="_blank">Barracuda-class variants</a></b> help. Also see Wikipedia's <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orka-class_submarine" target="_blank">Orka website</a></b>.<br /></span><br /><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">ORKA SPECIFICATIONS TABLE</span></b><br /><u1:p></u1:p><u1:p></u1:p><br /></span><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 705px;"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 352.7pt;" valign="top" width="705"><div align="center" style="line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span>Figures as at <span style="color: #cc0000;">March 19, 2024</span></span></b><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 352.7pt;" valign="top" width="705"><div align="center" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span>Class overview</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Name:</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span>Naval Group Orka-class for the Netherlands. "Variant chain" is <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barracuda-class_submarine_(France)" target="_blank">Barracuda</a></b> to </span></span><b style="color: #0b0080;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barracuda-class_submarine_(France)#Shortfin_Barracuda_conventional_variant" target="_blank">Shortfin</a></b><span> to </span><span style="color: #0b0080;"><b><a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/03/the-netherlands-select-naval-group-for-its-new-submarines/" target="_blank">Blacksword</a></b> to <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orka-class_submarine" target="_blank">Orka-class</a></b>.</span></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Operator:</b></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Envisaged only for the <span style="color: #0b0080;"><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Netherlands_Navy" target="_blank">Royal Netherlands Navy</a></b></span></span> so far.</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>4 planned</b></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Netherlands requires <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orka-class_submarine#Ships_in_class" target="_blank">2 commissioned</a></b> </span>(<i>Orka</i> and <i>Zvaardvis</i>) by 2034–2035. Then the <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orka-class_submarine#Ships_in_class" target="_blank">2 others</a></b> (<i>Barracuda</i> and <i>Tijgerhaai</i>) before 2040.<br />To be built at NG's Cherbourg shipyard in France<b><span style="color: red;">?</span></b></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Preceded by:</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><span style="color: #0b0080; font-family: arial;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walrus-class_submarine" style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;" target="_blank">Walrus class</a><i style="font-weight: bold;"> . </i></span></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarine_hull#Pressure_hull">Pressure hull</a> </span>steel</span></b></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Likely to be 100 HLES high-yield pressure hull steel, see US <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HY-80#Characteristics" target="_blank">HY-100 and HY-130</a></b> . Also see<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/chinese-and-russian-submarine-pressure.html"><b>Submarine Matters article</b></a> Table that uses a Japanese document.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Officers and Crew</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Between <a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/fiche-naval-group-onderzeeboten-nederland.jpg" target="_blank"><b>35 and 43</b> standard + <b>16</b></a> extra bunks for divers/special forces or intelligence intercept/linguist officers (depending on mission)<u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Speed/range<u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>and<u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Endurance</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>14 knots (surfaced), 22 knots (submerged). <b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/fiche-naval-group-onderzeeboten-nederland.jpg" target="_blank">15,000 </a></b><span style="color: #333333;"><b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/fiche-naval-group-onderzeeboten-nederland.jpg" target="_blank">nm</a></b>. All improvements over <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walrus-class_submarine" target="_blank">Walrus specs</a></b>. </span></span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial;">Endurance est 70 days depending on fuel, food & crew exhaustion.</span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #333333;">Typical mission profiles may be:<br />Transit + Ops Netherlands to Dutch Caribbean and return.<br /></span>Transit + Ops Netherlands to Arabian Sea and return.<br />North Sea and Arctic Ocean against Russia.</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Displacement:</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-indent: -4.8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/fiche-naval-group-onderzeeboten-nederland.jpg" target="_blank">3,300 tonnes (surfaced)</a></b> so </span><span style="text-indent: -4.8pt;"><b>3,700</b> tonnes (<b>submerged</b>) is estimated</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-indent: -4.8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr style="height: 8.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10;"><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; height: 8.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 8.5pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Length</b></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 8.5pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/fiche-naval-group-onderzeeboten-nederland.jpg" target="_blank"><b>82 m</b> </a> See Artwork with Specs below.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Diameter (Beam)</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/fiche-naval-group-onderzeeboten-nederland.jpg" target="_blank">8.2 m</a> </b></span><o:p></o:p></span>Artwork with Specs below.</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Height</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>? meters (hull + fin/sail)<u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Pumpjet, Propeller</b></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Pumpjet unlikely <b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Wat-we-nu-weten-over-de-nieuwe-Nederlandse-onderzeeboten-160324.html" target="_blank">no pumpjet on NG artwork</a></b>. Likely <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propeller#Skewback_propeller" target="_blank">skewback propeller</a></b></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Acoustic stealth</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Rubber/elastic mountings for moving and reverberating parts inside. Noise cancelers.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Capable of projecting</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), </span>Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Underwater decoys (against torpedoes and mobile mines)<u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>On hull behind fin/sail.</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Dry dock shelter for divers, diver delivery vehicles and large displacement UUVs (XLUUVs)<u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Weapons</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="line-height: 18pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-indent: -4.8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><span><span style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; text-indent: -4.8pt;"><span style="line-height: 18.4px;"><b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/fiche-naval-group-onderzeeboten-nederland.jpg" target="_blank">6 ×</a> 533 mm</b> (21.0 in) torpedo tubes. <a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/images/fiche-naval-group-onderzeeboten-nederland.jpg " target="_blank"><b>30 heavyweight (HW</b><span style="color: black;">) weapons</span></a>. Maybe </span></span></span></span><span style="text-indent: -4.8pt;"><span style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; text-indent: -4.8pt;"><span style="line-height: 18.4px;"><b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/03/orka-class-specifications-table-dutch.html?showComment=1710582251351#c5662480236946199044" target="_blank">Walrus weapons</a></b> </span></span></span></span>will be transferred ie <span style="text-indent: -4.8pt;"><span style="background: white; line-height: 18pt; text-indent: -4.8pt;"><span style="line-height: 18.4px;">Mk 48 HWTs, Harpoon SSMs, <b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Nederland-kiest-voor-Franse-boten-150324.html" target="_blank">even Tomahawk land attack SLCMs</a></b> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stonefish_(mine)" target="_blank"><b>Stonefish</b></a> mines. Or <b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Wat-we-nu-weten-over-de-nieuwe-Nederlandse-onderzeeboten-160324.html" target="_blank">maybe French weapons</a>.</b> This is a big area of uncertain debate</span></span></span><b><span style="color: red;">?</span></b></span></div><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Sensors</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span>Mainly French NG-Thales </span></span><b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Wat-we-nu-weten-over-de-nieuwe-Nederlandse-onderzeeboten-160324.html" target="_blank">UMS-3000</a></b> <b style="text-indent: -6.4px;"><span style="color: red;">?</span></b> </span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Combat System</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><b style="background-color: white; text-indent: -6.4px;"><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Nederland-kiest-voor-Franse-boten-150324.html" target="_blank">A mixed</a></b><span style="background-color: white; text-indent: -6.4px;"> US and French Combat System likely. Using a </span></span></span>TTCWS interface. US Lockheed Martin and mainly French NG-Thales likely main intergrators. Combat system <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/03/orka-class-specifications-table-dutch.html?showComment=1710582251351#c5662480236946199044" target="_blank">being</a></b> the network of sensors, databases, consoles, optronic masts and weapons costing about one third of the upfront price of a submarine.</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Max Depth</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>300+ meters</span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>Exterior stealth</b><u1:p></u1:p></span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anechoic_tile"><b>Anechoic tiles/coating</b></a> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr><tr style="height: 44.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 22; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"><td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; height: 44.55pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 62.1pt;" valign="top" width="124"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Propulsion:</b></span></div></td><td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid; border-color: initial; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; height: 44.55pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 290.6pt;" valign="top" width="581"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-indent: -4.8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span> 4 x MTU 16V 396 SE or 4 x </span>MTU 12V 4000 <b>diesels</b>. Likely <b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Wat-we-nu-weten-over-de-nieuwe-Nederlandse-onderzeeboten-160324.html" target="_blank">no AIP</a></b>.<br /><b><a href="https://youtu.be/TAEDB5IG520?si=Vy6G5vF2w16mtRTu" target="_blank">Jeumont Electric Motors</a></b> (Jeumont <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/03/orka-class-specifications-table-dutch.html?showComment=1710582251351#c5662480236946199044" target="_blank">now subsidiary</a></b> of NG-Framatome). with </span><b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Wat-we-nu-weten-over-de-nieuwe-Nederlandse-onderzeeboten-160324.html" target="_blank">4.5 to 5MW</a></b> of power.</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-indent: -4.8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span> <b><a href="https://www.saft.com/market-sectors/transportation/marine" target="_blank">Saft Lithium-ion batteries</a></b> also <b><a href="https://meta-defense.fr/2024/03/15/blacksword-barracuda-naval-group/#un-blacksword-barracuda-de-3-300-tonnes-qui-fait-la-jonction-avec-la-gamme-scorpene" target="_blank">see</a></b> on the LIBs.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">---</span></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: bold; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixSasKc0m8ixTNBkN5yLhmuXLd9AkMje2IPmML45tSbTXoEj8ZV2Ai9NanuySycFTH_myN7Y-x0pdr6YrRQmQym4SgNhlWLGFTJGzspy8k5TvhMxP7gz3tRhCteqHnUec5Xw-WNQ1bOzvZ9mP1hhXEbb0A9jwxmTpGB0a6RTVE3G3hLIwl9c3k/s500/Orka1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="376" data-original-width="500" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixSasKc0m8ixTNBkN5yLhmuXLd9AkMje2IPmML45tSbTXoEj8ZV2Ai9NanuySycFTH_myN7Y-x0pdr6YrRQmQym4SgNhlWLGFTJGzspy8k5TvhMxP7gz3tRhCteqHnUec5Xw-WNQ1bOzvZ9mP1hhXEbb0A9jwxmTpGB0a6RTVE3G3hLIwl9c3k/w640-h482/Orka1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Artwork with Specs courtesy Naval Group (March 16, 2024) via (Mr) Jaime Karremann's website<b> </b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; font-size: 13.5pt;"><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Wat-we-nu-weten-over-de-nieuwe-Nederlandse-onderzeeboten-160324.html">https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/Wat-we-nu-weten-over-de-nieuwe-Nederlandse-onderzeeboten-160324.html</a></span></b></span></div></div></div>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-3573278422381160012024-03-18T14:59:00.015+11:002024-03-18T16:35:30.288+11:00Delayed Orkas? TKMS, Naval Group & Saab: Iranian "AIP"!<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">Shawn C</span></b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">,
on Thursday March 14, 2024 (just before the Dutch Orka decision) commented
offline:<br /></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">TKMS MATTERS<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://youtu.be/hI5md1HOBT4?si=F0Qdw2SlPtG5RFrY" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">https://youtu.be/hI5md1HOBT4?si=F0Qdw2SlPtG5RFrY</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Note:
TKMS just built a new sub building facility in Kiel. This will allow TKMS
to simultaneously produce:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">2-3
submarines a year - not sure if he meant "build more subs"</span></span></li><li><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Allows
for the production of bigger boats – Type 212CD and 'bespoke customer
requirements' (Which I thought was a hint at Israel's future Dakar class)</span></span></li><li><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Planted
questions about TKMS employment and supply to TKMS sales director.</span></span></li><li><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Elaborated
on 'orphan designs' - maybe based on Dolphin class experience? </span></span></li><li><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Production
increase - can ramp up - speaks about Dutch production partner.</span></span></li><li><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">New
TKMS hall improves production by 20% - to new submarine projects a year? RSS
Invincible took 5 years to build (ordered 2013, construction began 2014,
launched in 2019)</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">Uses
Microsoft HoloLens for AR enhancement to production. <b><a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-au/hololens">https://www.microsoft.com/en-au/hololens</a></b></span></span> </span></li></ul>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Further on TKMS Production capacity:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">TKMS: <b><a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/08/israel-launches-new-submarine-first-in-world-with-modern-missiles-in-sail/" style="outline: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">Dolphin
ended 2023</span></a></b>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></li><li><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Singapore's <b><a href="https://www.mindef.gov.sg/web/portal/pioneer/article/feature-article-detail/ops-and-training/2024-Q1/28feb24_news1" style="outline: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">Invincible
class program will be completed 2024</span></a></b>. </span></span></li><li><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The 4 Norwegian and 2 German Type <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/news/norway-and-germany-mark-production-start-of-submarine-design/" style="outline: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">212CD
class started in 2023</span></a>. </span></span></li><li><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Israel’s 3 future Dakar-class program was confirmed August 2022, so should
now be in production. <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dakar-class_submarine">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dakar-class_submarine</a><br /></b></span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" style="font-family: arial;">Obvious
question about [the not yet finalized] Dutch contest. If extended Type 212CDs
were built that would make the Type 212CDs a 10 submarine class.</span> <br /><br /></span></li></ul><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">NAVAL GROUP MATTERS<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">[Pete
comment: Given the Netherlands has not finally chosen Naval Group’s (<b>NG</b>)
Orka until the <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/03/final-dutch-decision-awaits-lower-house.html" target="_blank">Dutch Parliament agrees</a></b>...] Note: Between the three sub builders
TKMS, NG and Saab. As a rough estimate, all three main shipbuilders (I have not
assessed their Dutch partners) should have available construction facilities in
2027 for this program.</span></span><span color="windowtext" style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">All
three are in active production of SSKs but NG is in India and Brazil. <br /><b><span style="color: #cc0000;">[Pete comment: DCNS/NG last built </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorp%C3%A8ne-class_submarine#Units" target="_blank">Scorpenes</a><span style="color: #cc0000;"> in Cherboug up to 2009 along with 2 SSNs (in 2009) but not simultaneously with SSBNs. So Cherbourg production facilities (already for the remaining SSNs and future SSBNs) </span></b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">might be inadequate if </span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="color: #cc0000;">Orkas also need to be built at Cherbourg? This might cause unexpected delays in the Orka Project. Will the Orkas need to be built elsewhere in France or in the Netherlands?] <br /></span></b>I do not
think NG will want to divert French SNLE 3G/SSBN production</span><span style="font-family: arial;">.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Suffren-class </span></b><span lang="EN-US">- the last in class NG <a href="https://www.meretmarine.com/fr/defense/sous-marins-une-troisieme-generation-de-casabianca-en-construction" style="outline: none;" target="_blank"><b><i><span style="color: #196ad4;">Casabianca</span></i><span style="color: #196ad4;"> estimated 2029 delivery</span></b></a> - 3 boats are <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barracuda-class_submarine_(France)#Boats">concurrently
in production</a></b>, with the next two expected in 2025 and 2027. With the Rubis-class Saphir-Perle also returned to service in 2023, this may mean that NG has clear
yard space (and clear Barracuda production facilities), though the <a href="https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/naval-warfare/france-advances-ssbn-and-ssn-projects/" style="outline: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">SNLE
3G SSBN production</span></a> was supposed to start at the end of 2023. [apparently
the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G"><b>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G</b></a> has not even been laid down yet!]<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">SAAB MATTERS<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">[Pete
comment: As Saab has no foreign orders Saab’s loss of the Orka-class
competition is a bitter blow. Saab may become involved in Australia's Collins
Life of Type Extension (<b>LOTE</b>) from 2026 but that is not certain.]<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Saab:
2 x A26 <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/07/saab-lays-keel-of-first-a26-blekinge-class-submarine/" style="outline: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;"><b>Blekinge-class
are in production</b></span></a>, with expected delivery in 2027 & 2028, <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/news/saab-to-conduct-mlu-on-swedens-gotland-class-submarine-hms-halland/?cf-view" style="outline: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;"><b>last
Gotland refit</b></span></a> should be completed. [Maybe 2 more Blekinges
will be ordered in the 2030s<b>?</b>].<br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">SINGAPORE NAVY
MATTERS<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">Wow! This is fast!
30 min before I saw this I was at the Singapore Ministry of Defense (Mindef) site checking press releases!</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/03/singapore-cuts-steel-on-its-first-multirole-combat-vessel-mrcv/" style="outline: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;">https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/03/singapore-cuts-steel-on-its-first-multirole-combat-vessel-mrcv/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Not
out yet on Singapore news sites.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">8,000
ton <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/07/singapores-future-multi-role-combat.html" target="_blank">Multi Role Combat Vessel (MRCV)</a></b> frigate with a 4 year delivery date... very ambitious.<br /></span></span><span color="windowtext" style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US">“HOT” IRANIAN AIP OFFER</span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Does
anyone want to buy Iranian AIP [on a 600 tonne Fateh-class submarine] ?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/dimdex-2024/2024/03/iran-unveils-aip-version-of-fateh-class-submarine-at-dimdex-2024/" style="outline: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #196ad4;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/dimdex-2024/2024/03/iran-unveils-aip-version-of-fateh-class-submarine-at-dimdex-2024/</span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-3206247953543165552024-03-15T11:28:00.005+11:002024-03-15T11:35:28.406+11:00Final Dutch Decision Awaits Lower House 18/3 Onwards<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The <b>final</b> Dutch decision stage on the Walrus
Replacement apparently will not be the Dutch Council of Ministers meeting on <b>Friday</b> March 15, 2024 (Dutch time). </span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">Instead the Lower House of the
Dutch Parliament must debate the Decision on, or from, <b>Monday</b>, March 18 (Dutch
time).</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #202020;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;"><b>Sources</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><b>1.</b> <o:p></o:p></span><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/netherlands-to-order-four-new-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/">https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/netherlands-to-order-four-new-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/</a></span></b><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #202020;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">"The order is politically sensitive
because Saab, one of the losing bidders, has a partnership with Dutch shipyard
Damen. Parliament is due to debate the [Walrus Replacement] deal next Monday,
once the council of ministers has signed it off on Friday." </span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">and</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #202020;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><b>2.</b><b> </b> <o:p></o:p></span><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://nltimes.nl/2024/03/12/dutch-government-ordered-four-submarines-french-state-company-naval-eu6-bil-deal">https://nltimes.nl/2024/03/12/dutch-government-ordered-four-submarines-french-state-company-naval-eu6-bil-deal</a></span></b><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #202020;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">"The formal decision will be made at the
weekly Cabinet [more correctly </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">Council of Ministers] </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">meeting on Friday, the sources said. After that, the Tweede
Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament, must assess and approve the
purchase."</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;"><b>Pete Comment</b></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">I am unaware whether this subsequent lower house approval is a mere technicality or whether it is a major hurdle that might overturn the Council of Ministers' decision.</span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">Also, might lower house approval potentially take hours, days or weeks?</span></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-6878515933528241512024-03-14T11:32:00.004+11:002024-03-14T21:09:02.216+11:00Australia's Virginia Chances Dive Deeper<p></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">An excellent article by </span><span style="background: white; color: #2b2b2b; line-height: 150%;">Dominic Giannini</span> at AAP-MSN of March 13,
2024 at <b><a href="https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australia-faces-subs-challenge-in-us-nuclear-at-home/ar-BB1jMyE1">https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australia-faces-subs-challenge-in-us-nuclear-at-home/ar-BB1jMyE1</a></b>
in part includes:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">
“Cuts to the production of a nuclear-powered submarine in the US have raised
concerns about Australia's planned acquisition as the government moves ahead to
regulate its nuclear industry in preparation.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">A Virginia-class submarine has been cut from the
2025 proposed US defence budget.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #2b2b2b; line-height: 150%;">…Australia was completely dependent on
Washington to acquire the submarine and America would always back their navy if
there was a shortage in production, former prime minister <b>Malcolm Turnbull said.</b></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>"The reality is the Americans are not going to
make their submarine deficit worse than it is already by giving or selling
submarines to Australia and [Congress'] AUKUS legislation actually sets that up,"
he told ABC radio on Wednesday…”</b><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;">"...</span><span style="color: #2b2b2b;">Virginia-class submarines supposed to be delivered this year in America were running an average of more than 30 months late, US defence under secretary comptroller and chief financial officer Michael McCord said.</span></span></p><p></p><p data-t="{"n":"blueLinks"}" style="background-color: white; color: #2b2b2b; margin: 0px 0px 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Money not flowing through to the industrial base fast enough was also a problem, Mr McCord said, as he pointed to there being more than a dozen on order that remained in production."</span></p><p data-t="{"n":"blueLinks"}" style="background-color: white; margin: 0px 0px 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span style="color: #cc0000;">[Australia's Part-time Defence Minister Marles should take note what the US DoD is saying] </span></b></span></p><p data-t="{"n":"blueLinks"}" style="background-color: white; margin: 0px 0px 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span style="color: #cc0000;">"Spending money to prop up industry rather than spending it on another submarine was a smarter investment, [McCord] added</span></b><span style="color: #2b2b2b;">..."</span></span></p><p data-t="{"n":"blueLinks"}" style="background-color: white; margin: 0px 0px 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;">More see </span><b style="background-color: transparent;"><a href="https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australia-faces-subs-challenge-in-us-nuclear-at-home/ar-BB1jMyE1">https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australia-faces-subs-challenge-in-us-nuclear-at-home/ar-BB1jMyE1</a><br /><br /></b></span></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><b><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Pete Comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The most valid measure of Virginia production is “Commissioned”
see <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class</a></b>
With current yearly commissionings averaging 1.3 Virginias per year. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Using "Boats in class" commissionings were:</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- 2 in 2022</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- 1 in 2023, and</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;">- 1 is due in 2024 "</span><span style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122;">Scheduled for 6 April"</span><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Hence cutting 1.0 per year might mean no Virginias being commissioned in 2025 and/or 2026. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This truly worries the USN. Hence it is, no doubt, advising
the Secretary of Defense, Congress and the President that all existing and new Virginias
should be retained by the USN - through to the early 2040s at least.</span></span></p><p></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-47117521419199552162024-03-13T23:40:00.007+11:002024-03-15T17:02:14.476+11:00Further Reports France Won Walrus Replacement<p></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">On Wednesday 13, 2024 Anonymous <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/03/walrus-replacement-decision-march-15.html?showComment=1710313628735#c4541580528013604008" target="_blank">commented</a></b>: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">“It looks increasingly likely that Naval has
indeed won this contract. Multiple Dutch news services announced it overnight
Australian time.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;"><a href="https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/netherlands-to-order-four-new-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/">https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/netherlands-to-order-four-new-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">The official announcement is stated to occur
this Friday [March 15, which will be Saturday, March 16 in Australia, but
evidently losing tenderers are informally notified in advance.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;"><b>ARTICLE</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">That excellent <b><i><a href="https://www.dutchnews.nl/">Dutch News</a></i></b> article of March 12,
2024<b> </b>reports:<b> l<a href="https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/netherlands-to-order-four-new-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/">https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/netherlands-to-order-four-new-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/</a>
<o:p></o:p></b></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">“Netherlands to order four new submarines from
French shipbuilder”<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">The Dutch government is expected to announce an
order this week for four submarines from French shipbuilder Naval Group,
sources have told RTL News.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #202020;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">[Naval Group] The Paris-based company, which is 62.5% owned
by the French state, saw off competition from Swedish firm Saab and Germany’s
TKMS to build the vessels at a total cost of around €4 billion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">They will replace the Walrus-class submarines
which have been in service since 1990. As much as 40% of the work will be
carried out in the Netherlands, <b><a href="https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/politiek/artikel/5439717/kabinet-wil-onderzeeboten-van-franse-bouwer-naval" target="_blank">RTL reported</a></b>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">The order is politically sensitive because
Saab, one of the losing bidders, has a partnership with Dutch shipyard Damen.
Parliament is due to debate the deal next Monday, once the council of ministers
has signed it off on Friday.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">Two weeks ago the cabinet <b><a href="https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/politiek/artikel/5437676/kabinet-laat-vier-fregatten-bouwen-bij-nederlandse-scheepswerf-voor" target="_blank">ordered four new frigates from Damen</a></b> under a contract worth at least €2.5 billion. Arming the vessels will cost
another €2.5 billion, making it the biggest maritime order ever placed with a
Dutch manufacturer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;"><b>PETE COMMENT</b><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;">Anonymous on March 11, 2024 <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/03/walrus-replacement-decision-march-15.html?showComment=1710113949205#c2828409407823513812" target="_blank">provided</a></b> </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">estimated specs of the possible winning French submarine: </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;">“…it was mentioned that the French submarine for The Netherlands submarine replacement will have a displacement of <b><a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240315-netherlands-to-select-future-attack-submarines" target="_blank">3,000 tonnes</a></b> [surfaced</span><b style="color: #202020;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: red; line-height: 27px;">?</span></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;">], a length of 80 meters and a smaller diameter (8 meters</span><b style="color: #202020;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: red; line-height: 27px;">?</span></b><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;">)...”</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: #202020;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: medium;">Naval Group (<b>NG</b>) not having sea proven AIP (since MESMA days) might not be disadvantaged compared to AIP specialists Saab and TKMS. This is because the Walrus and Replacements have very long range mission profiles (all the way to the <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/07/netherlands-needs-new-submarines-quickly.html" target="_blank">Dutch Caribbean</a></b> and return). For such long missions carrying AIP (especially the super-cooled <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-independent_propulsion#Types" target="_blank">liquid oxygen LOX</a></b>) is a heavy, space-taking, burden, of marginal utility, rather than an asset.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: #202020;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: medium;">In any case NG's Walrus Replacement may well have longer full submergence Lithium-ion Batteries, probably <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saft_(company)" target="_blank">from French</a></b> company <b><a href="https://www.saft.com/market-sectors/transportation" target="_blank">Saft</a></b>.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">If Naval Group won, this is bad news for </span><b style="color: #202020;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walrus-class_replacement_program#Contenders" target="_blank">Saab</a></b><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">, long expected to be the winner. Saab has desperately needed foreign orders since Saab lost Singapore’s
Invincible-class tender to TKMS in 2013.</span></span></p><p></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-74839788089711427872024-03-12T15:53:00.024+11:002024-03-15T13:56:56.132+11:00Australia's ERIS Dual-Use Rocket<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP5N_5swNzHL3lfr8HL3WPjsXMLY5AuUAna3o1tJHIBvYvWvGDZHsrhrP5Wg_EJ_C-vviHQAYnMi1jcK04KlVpQYjhSPJu08eMGfjWolPvPoKp-Phy4QB4vTVdrug8NopzriRhv2Sm8Sg3VSCgz1kjkERj8h8gHGu5CY-PTpjHErhj7Vpkw-lk/s1068/ERIS2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="1068" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP5N_5swNzHL3lfr8HL3WPjsXMLY5AuUAna3o1tJHIBvYvWvGDZHsrhrP5Wg_EJ_C-vviHQAYnMi1jcK04KlVpQYjhSPJu08eMGfjWolPvPoKp-Phy4QB4vTVdrug8NopzriRhv2Sm8Sg3VSCgz1kjkERj8h8gHGu5CY-PTpjHErhj7Vpkw-lk/w640-h426/ERIS2.jpg" width="640" /></a><br /><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 107%;"><b><a href="https://strategicanalysis.org/grumpy-strategists-makers-series-episode-2-gilmour-space/" target="_blank">Adam Gilmour</a></b>, CEO, Co-Founder Gilmour with ERIS Block </span>1, Australia's dual-use capable rocket. ERIS has the classic ICBM size and shape (eg. like a <b><a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/missile-surface-surface-minuteman-iii-lgm-30g/nasm_A19761115000" target="_blank">Minuteman III</a></b>). Shape includes ERIS not having strap-on boosters that would impede it being placed in silos. (Photo Gilmour Space via Byron Bay's<i> </i></span><b style="font-family: arial;"><i><a href="https://www.echo.net.au/2024/03/first-australian-made-and-owned-rocket-test-flight-coming/" target="_blank">The Echo</a></i></b><span style="font-family: arial;">, March 1, 2024)</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">---</span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;">Since I first looked at Virginias for Australia 9 years ago </span><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/02/australian-nuclear-submarine-option.html"><b><span style="background: white; line-height: 27px;">https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/02/australian-nuclear-submarine-option.html</span></b></a><b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;"> </span></b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;">I think it increasingly unlikely the US will ever deliver Virginias to Australia.</span></div></span><p></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Biden is merely using the receding Virginia mirage to feed Australian hopes until the UK tools up Osborne to merely begin building Australian SSN-AUKUS's for <b>launches at Osborne starting around 2051</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In any case <b>China will not be deterred</b> by merely conventionally armed Australian SSNs.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Rather than SSNs, Australia could more quickly develop <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intercontinental_ballistic_missile" target="_blank">ICBMs</a></b>, which is were <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilmour_Space_Technologies" target="_blank">Gilmour Space Technologies</a></b> might come in.</span></span></p><p class="font_8 wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgb(var(--color_14)); line-height: 1.5em; margin-block: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; pointer-events: auto; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;"><a href="https://www.gspace.com/about">https://www.gspace.com/about</a> </span></b>Founded by two brothers in Gold Coast, Queensland, </span></span><span class="wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">GILMOUR SPACE is a venture-capital-backed Australian launch services company that is developing new capabilities for launching satellites to space.</span></span></span><span color="rgb(var(--color_14))"></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;"></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;"></span></span></p><p class="font_8 wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgb(var(--color_14)); line-height: 1.5em; margin-block: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; pointer-events: auto; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Since starting its rocket program in 2015, Gilmour Space has become the leading provider of Australian-made launch vehicles and satellite platforms that will lower the cost of accessing space.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: black; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Reported in February 2018 </span><b style="color: black;"><span style="line-height: 26px;"><a href="https://www.spacetechasia.com/gilmour-space-nasa-sign-space-act-agreement/">https://www.spacetechasia.com/gilmour-space-nasa-sign-space-act-agreement/</a> </span></b><span class="wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: black; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> "</span><span style="color: #222222;">Australia and Singapore-based rocket company, </span><b><a href="https://www.spacetechasia.com/interview-gilmour-space-technologies/" target="_blank">Gilmour Space Technologies</a></b><span style="color: #222222;">, has entered into a <i>Space Act</i> Agreement with the US National Aeronautics & Space Administration (<b>NASA</b>) to collaborate on various research, technology development and educational initiatives, according to Gilmour’s press release."</span></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;">See Queensland's Gilmour Space dual-use ERIS rocket-missile project </span><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><a href="https://www.gspace.com/launch" style="font-weight: bold;">https://www.gspace.com/launch</a><b> . <br /></b><br /><b>Specifications: </b></span><a href="https://www.gspace.com/launch" style="font-weight: bold;">https://www.gspace.com/launch</a> <span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">ERIS Block 1 will be 25m tall, 3 stage, diameter <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilmour_Space_Technologies#Eris_orbital_rocket" target="_blank">2m tapering to 1.5m</a></b> (average 1.75m), weighing "<b><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-27/historic-australian-orbital-rocket-launch-remote-queensland/103265210" target="_blank">over 30 tonnes</a></b>"</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background: white; line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: #202020;">Very significantly </span></span><b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-27/historic-australian-orbital-rocket-launch-remote-queensland/103265210">https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-27/historic-australian-orbital-rocket-launch-remote-queensland/103265210</a> [</span></b><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">ERIS with a clean missile shape ie. no strap-on side boosters] "</span>is powered by five hybrid engines that contain a <b>solid fuel</b> and a liquid oxidiser."....</span><span style="font-family: arial;">"During the 1950s American and British made rockets were launched from the Woomera testing range in South Australia, and if ERIS is successful would make Australia just the 12th nation to have access to the technology."<br /><br />"We have global competitors and they get significantly more funding in their countries than we get from ours," argues Mr Gilmour who is a former banker and lifelong space enthusiast.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">"So I think Australia has to have a real good think about what it wants and realise that all of our major allies are pouring hundreds of millions to billions of dollars into launch capability and we're not."</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">On March 1, 2024 <i><b><a href="https://www.echo.net.au/contact-us/" target="_blank">The [Byron Bay] Echo</a></b></i> reported <b><a href="https://www.echo.net.au/2024/03/first-australian-made-and-owned-rocket-test-flight-coming/">https://www.echo.net.au/2024/03/first-australian-made-and-owned-rocket-test-flight-coming/</a></b> <br /><br />“The [ERIS] rocket, developed on the Gold
Coast, was recently transported to the Bowen Orbital Spaceport in north
Queensland to be assembled and is looking to launch in the next few months.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="font_8 wixui-rich-text__text" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgb(var(--color_14)); line-height: 1.5em; margin-block: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; pointer-events: auto; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="color: rgb(var(--color_14));"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Pete Comment</span></b></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">
<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 27px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Gilmour's civilian ERIS Block 1 is to be launched at the <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbot_Point#Bowen_Orbital_Spaceport" target="_blank">Bowen Orbital Spaceport</a></b> in <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbot_Point" target="_blank">Abbot Point</a></b> North Queensland, in 2024 or 2025.</span></span></p><p></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-36385546768263526222024-03-10T16:14:00.007+11:002024-03-10T16:17:11.329+11:00Japan Didn't Transfer Best Sub Tech: PRC Agents in Taiwan<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Note Wikipedia's belief that Taiwan's Hai Kun submarines are being "a<span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">ssembled using Japanese construction techniques in Taiwan. A Japanese team consisting of retired engineers from Mitsubishi and Kawasaki Heavy Industries is believed to have provided technical support." see </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hai_Kun-class_submarine#Design"><b>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hai_Kun-class_submarine#Design</b></a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Within this Japanese help argument my theory is more specifically that Taiwan's <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hai_Kun-class_submarine" target="_blank">Hai Kun "1</a></b>" is more based on Japan's <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oyashio-class_submarine" target="_blank">Oyashio-class</a></b> submarines than based on any other Japanese or foreign subs.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Arguments include:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- the similarity of Oyashios and the Hai Kun (see below)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- both Oyashios and Hai Kuns don't have AIP, and </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- while Japan (or any other nation) would use recent technology they would not transfer their latest technology for a Taiwanese submarine. One reason being Taiwanese ports and therefore shipbuilding are highly penetrated by PRC agents.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">See David Axe's Forbes article "<span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">To Conquer Taiwan, China Needs Taiwan’s Ports.
It Already Has Assets On The Inside." of July 28, 2021 at </span><b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/07/28/to-conquer-taiwan-china-needs-taiwans-ports-the-takeover-has-already-begun/?sh=5b913e8b633c">https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/07/28/to-conquer-taiwan-china-needs-taiwans-ports-the-takeover-has-already-begun/?sh=5b913e8b633c</a></span></b></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">
<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">which states in part: "<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">Corporate acquisitions in recent years have put CCP loyalists in charge of some of Taiwan’s most important port architecture. In a crisis, these loyalists could supply Chinese invaders with vital intelligence, thus reducing the risk to the assault force."</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">“Over the past two decades, the CCP has established representative offices in Taiwan’s major ports, invested in Taiwanese port building projects and gained direct access to at least some of Taiwan’s basic port infrastructure,” Ian Easton, an analyst with the Project 2049 Institute in Virginia, explained in</span><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"> </span><a aria-label="a new study" class="color-link" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://project2049.net/2021/07/22/hostile-harbors-taiwans-ports-and-pla-invasion-plans/" href="https://project2049.net/2021/07/22/hostile-harbors-taiwans-ports-and-pla-invasion-plans/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #003891; cursor: pointer; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="https://project2049.net/2021/07/22/hostile-harbors-taiwans-ports-and-pla-invasion-plans/">a new study</a><span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; color: #333333; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">.</span> [at <b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://project2049.net/2021/07/22/hostile-harbors-taiwans-ports-and-pla-invasion-plans/">https://project2049.net/2021/07/22/hostile-harbors-taiwans-ports-and-pla-invasion-plans/</a> ]"<br /><br /><br /></span></b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtutxW83U354KziU67oBYNIrq29M_80c7Lkal8GuJ2A8mpIMARUapfTUODg0dp-R41tCmN05sVNtVBTH2t43xw88nxybjEadYQplDiZF_emy_ZlplrB8iVMU6qIXwtdTGrxogk0N-S-SiNsSK-55iGg2-wKU1O3T0wyuNX1XTlAF-C9QIkzkLp/s640/oyashio1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="640" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtutxW83U354KziU67oBYNIrq29M_80c7Lkal8GuJ2A8mpIMARUapfTUODg0dp-R41tCmN05sVNtVBTH2t43xw88nxybjEadYQplDiZF_emy_ZlplrB8iVMU6qIXwtdTGrxogk0N-S-SiNsSK-55iGg2-wKU1O3T0wyuNX1XTlAF-C9QIkzkLp/w640-h426/oyashio1.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Japanese <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oyashio-class_submarine" target="_blank">Oyashio-class</a></b> non-AIP submarine (Model courtesy <b><i><a href="https://www.flyingmule.com/products/EM-37301" target="_blank">Flying Mule</a></i></b>)<br />---<br /><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9pzZxkY2SutS5n_fo7GqEkyWvrVz1nZNcULYDhUaNdkVEKvBgZq8Ly4mHLJ0xEBuTeWWxjIQ8RFwL1YRVazogsHs55dF50Ql9kKRq_TylhlOd3Rc-X2Ilc05npeG1pyWN9NB36AQSIPdAgjPUnlAFw8h9THHEIJ4qg6J4pqLEur0KS1unwxaw/s1200/hai%20kun1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="1200" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9pzZxkY2SutS5n_fo7GqEkyWvrVz1nZNcULYDhUaNdkVEKvBgZq8Ly4mHLJ0xEBuTeWWxjIQ8RFwL1YRVazogsHs55dF50Ql9kKRq_TylhlOd3Rc-X2Ilc05npeG1pyWN9NB36AQSIPdAgjPUnlAFw8h9THHEIJ4qg6J4pqLEur0KS1unwxaw/w640-h294/hai%20kun1.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />Taiwan's Hai Kun "1" (Photo courtesy <b><i><a href="https://www.meretmarine.com/fr/defense/mise-a-l-eau-du-hai-kun-premier-sous-marin-construit-par-taiwan" target="_blank">Mer et Marine</a></i></b>)<br />---</span></div><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"></span></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-83383560662724115132024-03-08T16:08:00.001+11:002024-03-08T16:08:17.566+11:00French SSBNs Making Up for UK RN Shortfalls.<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black;"><span>With the second Cold War, following Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Putin has issued increasing nuclear threats. Consequently French SSBNs increased their patrol numbers. See </span></span><a href="https://sldinfo.com/2022/03/france-and-the-ukraine-2022-crisis-france-sends-2nd-ssbn-to-sea/"><b><span style="background: white; line-height: 150%;">https://sldinfo.com/2022/03/france-and-the-ukraine-2022-crisis-france-sends-2nd-ssbn-to-sea/</span></b></a></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">"The [French] officer declined to confirm <i>Le Telegramme</i>, a regional </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;">paper, which reported March 1 [2022] a second French nuclear ballistic missile submarine has been ordered to take to sea.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">“No comment. You have to call the other side of the Seine,” the officer said, referring to the president’s Elysée office.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This was the first sailing of <b>two</b> French nuclear missile boats since 1981, sparked by the Euromissile crisis, afternoon daily <i>Le Monde</i> reported. There is usually one nuclear ballistic missile submarine at sea."</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Pete Comment</b></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">The "Euromissile Crisis" occurred between <b><a href="https://www.e-ir.info/2020/05/02/war-scares-and-nearly-the-end-of-the-world-the-euromissiles-crisis-of-1977-1987/#:~:text=The%20Euromissiles%20Crisis%20of%201977%2D1987%20was%20the%20defining%20crisis,'war%20scare'%20of%201983." target="_blank">1977 and 1987</a></b>. </span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">In addition to the Russian threat France's 2022 increase in SSBN patrols was partly due to UK SSBN availability shortfalls. </span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">The doubling of French SSBNs on patrol (from the usual one to two - perhaps still in force?) came at a time that the UK RN was suffering an SSBN shortage. UK SSBN HMS Vanguard suffered an <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Vanguard_(S28)#Overhaul_and_refueling" target="_blank">excessively long refit between 2015 until she finally resumed patrols in May 2023</a></b>.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">This French-British coordination is not unprecedented. After French SSBN Triomphant <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Vanguard_and_Le_Triomphant_submarine_collision" target="_blank">and HMS Vanguard collided</a></b> on February 3/4, 2009, both patrolling in the Atlantic, both navies agreed to cover it up. Russian satellites were quickly aware both submarines had unusually surfaced. So the French-UK coverup was against the greater enemies - the French and UK tax paying publics.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">It was a back-handed compliment that the 2 SSBNs were so undetectable, even at close range, that they pranged into each other.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">It is likely there is some <b><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090220011904/http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/admiral-sir-sandy-woodward-why-was-information-not-shared-1623793.html" target="_blank">information sharing</a></b> that has avoided a recurrence. Presumably the USN and UK RN also share information sufficient to avoid their SSBNs colliding in the Atlantic.</span></span></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-18619710281045336662024-03-08T10:15:00.001+11:002024-03-13T23:07:48.008+11:00Walrus Replacement Decision March 15? Naval Group?<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Regarding the <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walrus-class_replacement_program" target="_blank">Walrus Replacement competition</a></b>.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Jaime Karremann, at Dutch website <i>Marine Schepen</i> (Naval Ships) on
March 7, 2024, at <b><a href="https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/9-vragen-over-finale-nieuwe-onderzeeboten-070324.html">https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/9-vragen-over-finale-nieuwe-onderzeeboten-070324.html</a> </b>commented:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">“</span><span style="background: white; color: #222a55;">Despite unconfirmed reports that French
shipyard Naval Group will emerge victorious, no formal decision has yet been
announced. This [announcement] is expected to happen on Friday, March 15,” [2024] </span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: white; color: #222a55;">[In
Australia this would be on Saturday, March 16]</span><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Pete Comment<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">French Naval Group is offering the
diesel-electric <b><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3Agdn7_CJA&t=30s" target="_blank">Shortfin Barracuda</a></b> design. It is also possible that one of the
<b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walrus-class_replacement_program#Contenders" target="_blank">3 competitors</a></b> (Saab, TKMS or Naval Group)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>will be eliminated – making it a 2 horse
race until a further elimination – eventually leaving the winner in a year or 2.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This competition has been covered heavily <a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=walrus"><b>https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=walrus</b></a>
by <i>Submarine Matters</i> over the last
decade all the way back to <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/07/netherlands-needs-new-submarines-quickly.html" target="_blank">Kevin in 2015</a></b>. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-74300923279428486892024-03-07T10:00:00.006+11:002024-03-08T15:07:00.963+11:00“White Western” Shipbuilding Problems<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black;">In response to <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/frances-naval-nuclear-worker-shortage.html?showComment=1708780122740#c100759213855007589" target="_blank">French Anonymous' second comment</a></b> and <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/frances-naval-nuclear-worker-shortage.html?showComment=1708857792734#c99618721945193124" target="_blank">Anonymous’</a></b> comment on February 25, 2024 (on what I call the <o:p></o:p></span>“white Western” world nuclear submarine welder shortage) I have written the following:</span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In general the end of the
(first) Cold War “<b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_dividend" target="_blank">peace dividend</a></b>“ 1988-2001 led to a reduction in <b>Russian</b> and “white Western” European, US, <b><a href="https://www.navylookout.com/the-royal-navys-astute-class-submarines-part-1-development-and-delivery/" target="_blank">UK</a></b> and Australian naval ship building. This was in the framework of lower naval defence spending in Russia and the "white" West </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">overall</span><span style="font-family: arial;">. </span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual-use_technology" target="_blank">Dual-use</a></b> electronic industries, including
those relevant to submarines, continued to expand. This was</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span>even during War on Terror (</span><b>WoT</b><span>) (“9/11” 2001
to the West's <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive" target="_blank">Afghan collapse of 2021</a></b></span></span><span>) in part because counter-terrorism infantry ops using aerial drones were packed with new electronics.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Perhaps most effected from 1988 and much of the WoT was Russian and “white
Western” high precision welding training and work that is essential for
submarine pressure hulls and reactors. Submarine funding reductions led to far fewer
SSN launches as well as early retirements of SSNs - </span><span>see </span><b><a href="https://warriorlodge.com/pages/los-angeles-class-submarine#:~:text=Of%20the%2021%20retired%20boats,months%20into%20a%20maintenance%20period" target="_blank">SSNs laid up</a>. </b><span>All this meant a </span><span>sharp downturn in submarine and reactor welder training even in the US.</span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black;">In the 1990s the a “white
Western” ideology grew of downsized government technical training
and instead a tendency to hire private sector supplier/contractors. Governments relied<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>on buying labour “top dollar” to sustain a semi-employed, limited contract, labour market.</span> </span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In contrast Northeast Asian
naval shipbuilding was far less impacted by the peace dividend as there was (and is) a
continuous build submarine <b>arms race</b> between China and North Korea (<b>NK</b>) versus Japan, South Korea
(<b>SK</b>) and now Taiwan. Large scale building of naval and civilian surface ships also kept
welders continuously employed in Northeast Asia. These countries trained welders
at a higher tempo with very long contracts, even jobs for life. </span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Many <b>Russian</b> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_weapons" style="font-weight: bold;" target="_blank">nuclear weapon</a>, <b><a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/North-Korea-threat-shows-Russia-s-role-behind-missile-program" target="_blank">missile</a>, and submarine</b> engineers, unemployed in the 1990s, found work in NK. This sharply accelerated NK's progress in all three fields during the 2000s. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In
“white Western” batch building, temporary contracts with considerable downtime, can lead to
loss of welding skills. The UK and France in particular saw long multi-year gaps
between the end of their SSBN building projects and full resumption of their new
SSN (Astute and Barracuda) building phases. Corporate memory in nuclear construction
skills was lost. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">All this is impacting the
tempo of current SSN and SSBN construction in the UK, France and US. France is
trying to improve nuclear welder availability with HEFAÏS’ <a href="https://hefais.fr/"><b>https://hefais.fr/</b></a> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>. HEFAÏS’ is a high-level industrial school “whose
ambition is to train the best welders in France for the nuclear and naval
sectors.” This is to meet the nuclear naval (submarines and the Charles de
Gaulle carrier <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_French_aircraft_carrier" target="_blank">replacement</a></b>) and civilian nuclear welder shortages in France.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Australia launched its last submarine (an SSK) in <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine#Submarines_in_class" target="_blank">2001</a></b>. So it will be more than 4 decades when Australia will attempt to <b>start</b> much
larger, more complex and unforgiving SSN-AUKUS’ construction from around 2045. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Also in Australia many
of the best technicians and engineers are working where there is more money and
(even better) constant work in the non-batch building, non-shipbuilding <b>electronics
sectors in Australia and overseas</b>. Young welders might prefer not to chance
their careers in Australia as surface shipbuilding continuity here is a highly
political, uncertain, and occurs in just 2 relatively isolated states of
Australia. Those states are South Australia (with an economy totally dependent on federal shipbuilding) and Western Australia (<b>WA</b>) (which demands reinvestment of the massive amounts of GST <b>WA's</b> mining/energy industry contributes to Australia's Federal Government. </span></span></p><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;"></span><p></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-60902188166636528822024-03-04T19:53:00.001+11:002024-03-04T19:53:46.916+11:00Indian Base Building on Strategic Lakshadweep Islands<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black;"><b><a href="https://draft.blogger.com/profile/17004046608501273026" target="_blank">Gessler</a></b> provided the following excellent <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/is-india-actually-using-both-its.html?showComment=1708941759868#c1294935734479720608" target="_blank">comments and links</a></b> on February 26, 2024.</span><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">[<b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Dweeprakshak" target="_blank">INS Dweeprakshak</a></b> (a “concrete ship”) was commissioned </span><span style="background: white; color: #202122; line-height: 150%;">on </span><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kavaratti" target="_blank"><span style="background: white; line-height: 150%;">Kavaratti</span><span style="line-height: 150%;"> </span></a></b><span style="background: white; color: #202122; line-height: 150%;"><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kavaratti" target="_blank">island</a></b>,
in the center of India’s </span><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakshadweep" target="_blank"><span style="background: white; line-height: 150%;">Lakshadweep</span><span style="line-height: 150%;"> Islands</span></a> </b></span><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">in 2012. </span></span><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This was to provide support facilities
for naval vessels based on the islands, as well as to enhance surveillance
capabilities (eg. using radar) over shipping lanes.]<br /><br /></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3QCS0TTx9Z-ri8thI9gfP9XbML_ghJITaetW8EvL5YASG6t7X6Ol0wwOSDc2-1TdxTaf6jHR-HchSv7x20XbsT1vWveg4GAM3uhss8VjvxH3XbqKcNdO9YEkhuwiqjcugcxBZxcRURkBNYugTpj84lcdVKDw32C1v5jdEtqIn_9qUHqLCQh5d/s850/Map-of-Lakshadweep-showing-the-ten-inhabited-islands-from-where-fish-landing-data-was.ppm" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="850" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3QCS0TTx9Z-ri8thI9gfP9XbML_ghJITaetW8EvL5YASG6t7X6Ol0wwOSDc2-1TdxTaf6jHR-HchSv7x20XbsT1vWveg4GAM3uhss8VjvxH3XbqKcNdO9YEkhuwiqjcugcxBZxcRURkBNYugTpj84lcdVKDw32C1v5jdEtqIn_9qUHqLCQh5d/w640-h490/Map-of-Lakshadweep-showing-the-ten-inhabited-islands-from-where-fish-landing-data-was.ppm" width="640" /></a><br />See Kavaratti (in the center) and Minicoy (in the south) islands of the <span style="background-color: white; color: #202020; text-align: left;">Lakshadweep archipelago (Map courtesy <b><i><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-Lakshadweep-showing-the-ten-inhabited-islands-from-where-fish-landing-data-was_fig1_354485180" target="_blank">researchgate</a></i></b>)<br />---</span></span></div></div><p></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">Naval bases are also being developed in the southernmost islands of India's
Lakshadweep archipelago. That includes <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Jatayu" target="_blank">INS Jatayu naval base</a></b>, on Minicoy Island, to be commissioned <b>in 2 days time on March 6, 2024</b>.</span><span style="line-height: 150%;"><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<b style="color: #202020;"><span style="background: white;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-to-build-naval-bases-in-agatti-and-minicoy-islands-101707884042309.html">https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-to-build-naval-bases-in-agatti-and-minicoy-islands-101707884042309.html</a></span></span></b><span style="background: white; color: #202020;"> </span><br />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<span style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">The extent of these bases, in
terms of infrastructure and facilities, is still unclear. We also don't know how much land reclamation is necessary to build everything. Regardless, bases here are significant for two reasons:</span></span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<span style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b>1)</b> These islands serve as a pseudo-chokepoint
considering they sit on either side of the <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Degree_Channel" target="_blank">Nine-Degree Channel</a></b>, the main trade
route for ships going between the Middle East and East Asia (<b>map below</b>
illustrates this).<br /></span></span><br /></span></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN8sRUkqTJ1gCC6wFObPHO6PRKhx06c-Ud6DnPvxfM2CTsTcyXWWZeOYA2S3W7x-FmSpdj8-AqjvnNTuw0fjhxxtjY81AVQBDKH0BRdVn_RPtwm6vwX8XYmW65clb1YzwQV5hdhUIZT5bjzWEZEMo5l36fBMoRNZLB212pJMJMzxEu3idzE9Vn/s710/sloc.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="710" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN8sRUkqTJ1gCC6wFObPHO6PRKhx06c-Ud6DnPvxfM2CTsTcyXWWZeOYA2S3W7x-FmSpdj8-AqjvnNTuw0fjhxxtjY81AVQBDKH0BRdVn_RPtwm6vwX8XYmW65clb1YzwQV5hdhUIZT5bjzWEZEMo5l36fBMoRNZLB212pJMJMzxEu3idzE9Vn/w640-h466/sloc.jpg" width="640" /></a><br /><span style="color: #202020; text-align: left;"><span style="background: white;">SLoC map hosted at imgbb - see <a href="https://ibb.co/ckMh4MS" style="font-weight: bold;">https://ibb.co/ckMh4MS</a><br /><b>---</b></span></span></span></div></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<span style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><b>2)</b> The Lakshadweep archipelago sits on the same
Chagos-Laccadive Ridge as the <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maldives" target="_blank">Maldives archipelago</a></b>. The Indian-administered
island of <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minicoy" target="_blank">Minicoy</a></b> mentioned above is only about 150 kms from the nearest
Maldivian atoll, and only about 450 kms from the Maldivian capital city of Male.</span></span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" /><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<span style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">It's possible that the development of these bases
is meant to put pressure on the new anti-India/pro-China Maldivian Government.
Chinese intelligence-gathering ships have <b><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68163343" target="_blank">recently called at Maldivian ports</a></b>,
and I'd imagine Delhi is understandably concerned.</span></span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" /><span style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">What's worrying is that Chinese intelligence
penetration of the Maldivian bureaucracy is real (one could describe <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Muizzu#China_and_India_relations" target="_blank">President Muizzu</a></b> and his "India Out" campaign as a part of that). It must
be remembered that Maldives is a very small country with a very small
population. It doesn't take much for someone aligned with the CCP to seize
control under false pretexts. [China may incite violence] when and if Chinese attempts at seizing
control through mostly non-violent means do not give them the results they
want. History shows that a rag-tag group of 80 mercenaries is all that it takes
to effectively bring the Maldive's government to it's knees:</span></span><br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<b style="color: #202020;"><span style="background: white;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Maldives_coup_attempt">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Maldives_coup_attempt</a></span></span></b><span style="background: white; color: #202020;"> </span><br />
<br style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" />
<span style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">One must consider the Maldives close proximity to India and it is not far from the US' key air and naval base at <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia#United_States_military_activities" target="_blank">Diego Garcia</a></b>. The Chinese having a regular
port of call at the Maldives for year-round intelligence operations in the region probably
doesn't help the Americans either. The government in Delhi may be well served
wanting to prepare for any eventuality that might arise out of the Maldives.</span></span><span style="color: #202020;"><u1:p></u1:p></span><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><p></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 150%; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span style="background: white; color: #202020; line-height: 150%;">Pete Comment</span></b><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><u1:p></u1:p>
</span><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 150%; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;">Indian base building on the
Lakshadweep Islands reduces the chances that Pakistan based
military/terrorists might use these islands as a springboard onto the
Indian mainland (recalling the <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Mumbai_attacks" target="_blank">2008 Mumbai attacks</a></b>). </span>Indian base building also reduces the chances<span style="line-height: 150%;"> Pakistan and China might close the </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Degree_Channel" target="_blank"><b>Nine-Degree Channel</b></a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #202020;"> "<b>SLoC Block"</b> or </span>disrupt Indian naval activities generally.</span></p><p></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-67481223726462858402024-02-27T18:26:00.006+11:002024-02-28T15:24:54.938+11:00Indian Carrier Operations in the IOR <p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;">Inspired by Ghalib Kabir’s February 24, 2024 <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/is-india-actually-using-both-its.html?showComment=1708764802312#c3396000885415020345" target="_blank">comments</a></b>: and Ghalib spotted this excellent CNN article </span><b><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/15/asia/india-navy-dual-aircraft-carrier-operations-intl-hnk-ml/index.html">https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/15/asia/india-navy-dual-aircraft-carrier-operations-intl-hnk-ml/index.html</a><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif"> </span></b></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;">In <b><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/15/asia/india-navy-dual-aircraft-carrier-operations-intl-hnk-ml/index.html " target="_blank">June 2023</a></b> India demonstrated its naval strength with a dual aircraft carrier, </span><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Vikramaditya" target="_blank">INS Vikramaditya</a></b><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif"> </span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">and </span><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Vikrant_(2013)" target="_blank">INS Vikrant "II"</a></b><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">,</span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif"> battle group
exercise in the Arabian Sea off India’s west coast. This was with 35 aircraft
as well as Indian surface escorts protected by Indian submarines. </span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">These two Indian carriers </span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">are used regularly in exercises. </span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">India is strengthening its carrier airwings and navy generally with the purchase of 24 multi-mission (including anti-submarine) <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Naval_Air_Arm#Helicopters" target="_blank">MH-60R Seahawks</a></b>.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Ghalib Kabir added offline on February 26: One of the reasons India is conducting two carrier ops along with SSK and future SSN use is that China is sending multiple <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/11/chinese-ships-in-indian-ocean-to-track.html" target="_blank">oceanographic and SIGINT ships</a></b> (and <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/11/india-delaying-its-missile-tests-2-plan.html" target="_blank">here</a></b>) besides SSKs, SSNs and other surface ships near India.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">China won’t back down and are clear that they will poke their finger onto Indian wounds every chance they get…</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">I</span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">ndia's two carriers were operating together in late February 2024 at </span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">the <b><a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/milan-2024-war-exercise-including-50-navies-kicks-off-in-vizag/photostory/107889285.cms?picid=107889316" target="_blank">MILAN 2024 multilateral naval exercise</a></b> (and <b><a href="https://www.etvbharat.com/en/!bharat/sea-phase-of-milan-2024-concludes-with-a-grand-ceremony-onboard-ins-vikrant-enn24022700281" target="_blank">see</a></b>) hosted by India. This exercise is held by India every 2 years in India’s Fleet Base East (Vizag) right through to India’s Andaman and Nicobar islands in the Bay of Bengal</span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">China has had
no dual carrier exercises and virtually no operational carrier experience. In contrast India has decades of carrier experience. The Indian Navy operated <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Vikrant_(1961)" target="_blank">INS Vikrant "I"</a></b> from 1961 and <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Viraat" target="_blank">INS Viraat</a></b> from 1987. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Also there are doubts whether the UK RN has sufficient escorts to operate the UK’s two Queen <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Elizabeth-class_aircraft_carrier" target="_blank">Elizabeth-class carriers</a></b> simultaneously - photo opportunities excepted!<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;">Like Russia’s and China’s current carriers India uses <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOBAR" target="_blank">STOBAR</a></b> (short (ski-jump) take-off - arrested recovery) technology.</span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif"> </span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">India's Carrier Fixed Airwing Problems </span></b></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">"But even with the advancements demonstrated by the dual-carrier
operation, India’s carrier program still has question marks, <b><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/15/asia/india-navy-dual-aircraft-carrier-operations-intl-hnk-ml/index.html" target="_blank">said Childs from IISS</a></b>.</span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">“While an impressive-looking display, there may be some question
over what this really amounts to as yet in terms of actual operational
capability,” he said, noting that images from the Indian operation showed
relatively few fighter aircraft on the decks of the Vikramaditya and Vikrant.</span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">“This may indicate limited aircraft availability, or that the
ships’ capacities are somewhat constrained at the moment. It would certainly
suggest that the Indian Navy could do with more carrier aircraft,” Childs said."<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">Pete Comment: Having relied on the Russian </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202122;">MiG-29</span> <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202122;">K for carrier operations ultimately</span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif"> India wants a <b>locally</b> developed naval fighter-attack aircraft. After testing the very
slowly developed “Mirage III in a time warp” <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAL_Tejas" target="_blank">HAL Tejas</a></b> for many years, the Indian Navy has found
the Tejas overweight for carrier operations. Some in India’s HAL military-industrial
complex have turned their ambitions to a future jet called the <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAL_TEDBF" target="_blank">HAL TEDBF</a></b> which is promised to be more than a Tejas with two jet engines rather than one. The TEDBF's first flight is expected in 2026. </span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Hence India is buying <b><a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-kicks-off-formal-procurement-process-for-26-naval-french-rafale-fighters/articleshow/104764785.cms?from=mdr" target="_blank">26 marine Rafale Ms</a></b> from France as an interim carrier fighter.</span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Ghalib Kabir further comments that India’s carrier ops and navy
generally will be strengthened with a further lease (perhaps from 2025) of a renovated Russian Akula-class SSN, informally called <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2019/03/indian-future-lease-akula-chakra-iii-to.html" target="_blank">Chakra "III"</a></b></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Pete Comment</span></b></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Indian and Chinese carriers might have difficulty operating in a <b>high</b> intensity naval war in the Indian Ocean Region (<b>IOR</b>). Their own SSKs (as well as Pakistan's) and SSNs could fire sufficient torpedoes and anti-ship missiles to make carrier ops brutal and short. Nuclear weapons, owned by all three countries, would extinguish carrier ops even more quickly.</span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face=""Segoe UI",sans-serif" style="color: black;">The main value of carriers in the Indian Ocean may be: power projection over island groups; over less defended ports of weaker countries on the IOR rim; to complicate the <b>low-medium</b> intensity naval strategy and operations of opponents; and for prestige</span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif">. </span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Also see my March 3, 2015 article <b><i><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2009/02/update-on-indias-indigenous-submarine.html" target="_blank">Latest on India's Aircraft Carrier Projects</a></i></b> </span></span></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-5278940097813215862024-02-26T14:22:00.009+11:002024-03-01T13:09:41.888+11:00SECRET Clauses of AUKUS SSN Agreement<p></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face=""Verdana",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; line-height: 150%;"><o:p>In response to some of </o:p></span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">French Anonymous' February 2, 2024 <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/frances-naval-nuclear-worker-shortage.html?showComment=1708780122740#c100759213855007589" target="_blank">comments</a></b>:</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"> </span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face=""Verdana",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; line-height: 150%;">If France sold Barracuda SSNs to Australia and, because they use
LEU, France agreed to accept Australian Barracudas (including spent LEU) being returned to France this may
be attractive to Australia.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"> </span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face=""Verdana",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; line-height: 150%;">This is because clauses of the AUKUS agreement require:</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"> </span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face=""Verdana",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; line-height: 150%;">1. (<b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/01/military-interests-push-civilian.html" target="_blank">reported</a></b> but actual wording in unrevealed AUKUS agreement SECRET) a Low to Intermediate level nuclear waste Dump being built in
Australia for waste arising from US and Australian Virginia and SSN-AUKUS maintenance. The dump will be at Fleet Base West ie. Perth Naval Base.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"> </span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face=""Verdana",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; line-height: 150%;">2. (</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">actual wording SECRET) </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; line-height: 150%;">Australia must dispose of high level radioactive materials
and Australian Virginia and Australian SSN-AUKUS subs once these SSNs are decommissioned.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"> </span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face=""Verdana",sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; line-height: 150%;">3. (TOP SECRET) - The UK will bear much of the SSN-AUKUS burden for Australia <b>if</b> Australia accepts all/some part of the irradiated reactor compartments and HEU waste of the UK's decommissioned
SSNs and SSBNs, in a <b>future </b></span><b><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">Australian </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">High Level Nuclear Waste Dump.</span></b></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">See AUKUS Briefing Book </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; line-height: 150%;"><a href="https://securityanddefenceplus.plusalliance.org/aukus-briefing-book/" style="font-weight: bold;">https://securityanddefenceplus.plusalliance.org/aukus-briefing-book/</a><b> </b>and <b><a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/AUKUS-factsheet.pdf " target="_blank">AUKUS Factsheet</a></b> contains a complex and ambiguous network of overlapping responsibilities. See below official AUKUS flow chart.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"> Nuclear Waste Dumps for Australia may be under "Nuclear Stewardship" and/or "Non-Proliferation" and/or, more explicitly, under one of the three "Classified or Not Disclosed" activities under "Submarines" below. </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;">Off Topic - One of the </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222;"><span>"Classified or Not Disclosed" activities would be a Security Liaison Group mainly led by the <b><a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/10/23/2003808089" target="_blank">FBI, </a></b></span></span><span style="color: #222222;"><b><a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/10/23/2003808089" target="_blank">MI5</a></b> and </span><span style="color: #222222;">ASIO (</span><b style="color: #222222;"><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/05/asio-and-aukus-submarine-security.html" target="_blank">here</a></b><span style="color: #222222;"> and </span><b style="color: #222222;"><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/06/foreign-spies-seeking-to-disrupt-aukus.html" target="_blank">here</a></b><span style="color: #222222;">) and . They would be making high level decisions on Counter Espionage, Foreign Interference, Cybersecurity and high level Vetting as those topics relate to AUKUS. </span></span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><span style="color: #222222;">An AUKUS Security Liaison Group meeting was held around the time of an "</span><span face="Arial, 文泉驛正黑, "WenQuanYi Zen Hei", "儷黑 Pro", "LiHei Pro", 微軟正黑體, "Microsoft JhengHei", 新細明體, PMingLiU, sans-serif" style="background-color: transparent;">FBI-hosted summit of [security service] heads from the agencies of Five Eyes alliance countries of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US" held in the US, in late 2023 - see </span></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><i><b>Beijing
seeks to ‘disrupt’ AUKUS, MI5 head says</b></i> of October 23, 2023 at</span><span face="Arial, 文泉驛正黑, "WenQuanYi Zen Hei", "儷黑 Pro", "LiHei Pro", 微軟正黑體, "Microsoft JhengHei", 新細明體, PMingLiU, sans-serif" style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></span><b style="background-color: transparent;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/10/23/2003808089">https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/10/23/2003808089</a> .<br /></span><br /></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://securityanddefenceplus.plusalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Screen-Shot-2022-08-31-at-12.39.48-PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="559" data-original-width="576" height="621" src="https://securityanddefenceplus.plusalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Screen-Shot-2022-08-31-at-12.39.48-PM.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: #222222; font-size: 11.5pt;"><br /></span><p></p><p></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-89588639384630889122024-02-24T10:14:00.002+11:002024-02-24T10:14:34.869+11:00Is India Actually Using Both Its Carriers?<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I'm wondering whether India has used its two newish carriers (INS <i><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Vikramaditya" target="_blank">Vikramaditya</a></b></i> and INS <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Vikrant_(2013)" target="_blank"><i>Vikrant</i></a></b>) for operations?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Have they been part of Indian carrier group exercises?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Has their strategic purpose been merely as a counter to China's carrier developments?</span></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-90789856884939631292024-02-23T13:47:00.001+11:002024-03-08T15:04:22.883+11:00France's Naval Nuclear Worker Shortage: No Barracudas for RAN<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt;">A France wide lack of nuclear workers foils claims France could
deliver Barracuda SSNs to Australia quickly and easily – outside of the likely
delay: 2050 or later (see my <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/no-early-ssn-even-in-2032-for-ran.html" target="_blank">previous article</a></b>).</span></p>
<p style="background: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 150%;">Also Barracudas lack all
important VLS. Only VLS can launch ever larger diameter future longer range
hypersonic missiles for land attack. Such missiles would act as a partial
deterrent against China.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 150%;">On nuclear workers see the
French source “<b>France’s struggle to deliver a second nuclear era</b>” by Sarah
White in Saint-Marcel (France) at the Financial Times APRIL 23 2023<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 150%;">at <a data-wpel-link="external" href="https://www.ft.com/content/d23b14ae-2c4e-458c-af8a-22692119f786" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: #0065b2; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><b>https://www.ft.com/content/d23b14ae-2c4e-458c-af8a-22692119f786</b></span></a> which
includes:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 150%;">“France, which employs
some 220,000 people in the nuclear industry, needs to rebuild a deep bench of
qualified workers for its new nuclear drive. Among them will be highly trained
welders like Geoffray and his colleagues — EDF estimates France will need double
the 500 it has today by 2030. At the Hefaïs welding school launched last year
by the company and other manufacturers near Cherbourg, on the northern coast
close to France’s <b>nuclear</b> <b>submarine shipyards</b>, the complexities of even that task are apparent. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 150%;">After nine months of
training there, including with headsets on virtual equipment, they can qualify
for a first job, says Corentin Lelièvre, the school’s director. But it can take
five to seven years of experience and repeat training before they are entrusted
with the most intricate tasks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 150%;">Those can require
developing a quasi-acrobatic skill of being able to keep a steady hand while
working upside down, or using a mirror in cramped corners of a reactor circuit
to guide the weld — a one-shot operation that workers can’t go back on once
it’s started. It also involves learning to work safely in a radioactive
environment, and in a post-Fukushima world, how to grapple with extra layers of
documentation.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 15.75pt; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 150%;">++++++++++++<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style="background: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; line-height: 150%;">France’s <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_French_aircraft_carrier" target="_blank">future “PA-NG” nuclear aircraft carrier</a></b> + its two future K22 reactors are two more
major nuclear projects confronting France’s naval nuclear worker shortage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-68015945911490358292024-02-21T18:35:00.003+11:002024-02-28T17:01:52.540+11:00No early SSN (even in 2032?) for the RAN<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">As Virginias for the RAN might only arrive in the late 2030s, it is fortunate the first </span>Collins LOTE</span> is scheduled <span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">from "mid-2026". See the </span>Australian Submarine Agency (<b>ASA</b>) reference <a href="https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/collins-class-submarines"><b>https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/collins-class-submarines</b></a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b>US Virginias</b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The most authoritative source, the ASA, is no longer talking first Virginia for Australia in <b>2032</b>. Rather ASA is on record as writing </span><a href="https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines"><b>https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines</b></a> :<br /><br />"<span style="background-color: white; color: #1a1a1a;">The United States intends to sell Australia 3 Virginia Class SSNs (nuclear-powered submarines) <b>from as soon as the early 2030s</b>, which was authorised by the US Congress in December 2023. Australia retains the option to seek approval for up to 2 more if needed...."</span><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The US offer very much relies on much higher yearly Virginia production, through to commissioning, rates of Virginias than the US (now also entering full Columbia SSBN production) has been able to achieve since the 1990s. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Also a US President in the 2030s must be satisfied that the USN is receiving all the Virginias it needs before he/she can approve any spare Virginias for Australia. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 27px; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b>UK SSN-AUKUS</b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The UK's <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astute-class_submarine#Boats_in_the_class" target="_blank">final Astute</a></b> (Agincourt) might be commissioned in 2026 or later. Simultaneously many of the UKs limited nuclear sub building force will be committed to the 4 new generation SSBN (Dreadnought) program until about 2045. This is if Dreadnoughts are commissioned every 4 years from 2033 see <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreadnought-class_submarine#Boats_of_the_class"><b>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreadnought-class_submarine#Boats_of_the_class</b></a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 27px; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">About the SSN-AUKUS for Australia the Australian Submarine Agency writes - see </span><a href="https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines"><b>https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines</b></a> :</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">"<span style="background-color: white; color: #1a1a1a;">The UK will commence construction of its first SSN-AUKUS in Barrow-in-Furness UK, as early as the late 2020s. The UK intends to deliver its first SSN-AUKUS to the UK Royal Navy <b>in the late 2030s</b>. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1a1a1a;">[It is only after SSN-AUKUS are delivered to the UK RN</span> that they can be completed at Osborne, Adelaide, for the RAN.]</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 27px; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Hence the Australian Submarine Agency, very ambiguously on timings, writes - </span><a href="https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines"><b>https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/australias-nuclear-powered-submarines</b></a> :</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">"</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1a1a1a;">Australia's nuclear-powered submarines - SSN-AUKUS - will be based on the UK's next generation design that incorporates technology from all 3 nations, including cutting edge US submarine technologies."</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In plain English the UK RN will need to commission its first SSN-AUKUS from "late 2030s" then one should expect several years of trials before commissioning this first-of-class (say 2042) then years to tool up Osborne, Adelaide for production - (say from 2045).</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1a1a1a;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></span></p><p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">For subsequent confirmation
of the difficulties and delays leading to lateness of the UK's SSN-AUKUS, flowing on to late Australian SSN-AUKUS timings, see <b><a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/author/peter-briggs/" target="_blank">Peter Briggs</a></b>' excellent essay at ASPI’s <i>The Strategist</i> titled <b><i>“SSN AUKUS is at the back of
the queue”</i></b> of 27 Feb 2024, at <b><a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ssn-aukus-is-at-the-back-of-the-queue/">https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ssn-aukus-is-at-the-back-of-the-queue/</a> .</b><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b>French Barracuda SSNs</b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">There is a myth that France could deliver SSNs to the RAN simply and more quickly if President Macron or Naval Group so will it. But France's very limited NUCLEAR (as distinct from CONVENTIONAL) submarine designing-building workforce are mainly committed to finishing their own Navy's last
Barracudas - until <b>2031 see </b></span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barracuda-class_submarine_%28France%29#Boats" style="background-color: white; color: #681da8;"><b>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barracuda-class_submarine_%28France%29#Boats</b></a>. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In parallel the balance of France's NUCLEAR submarine workforce are working on France's 3rd Generation SSBN (French acronym "SNLE 3G") see <span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G#Design_and_operation"><b>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G#Design_and_operation</b></a></span> :</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 24px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">"first steel [was] cut for the vessels in 2023 and completed submarines delivered <b>at a rate of one every five years from 2035, with the programme completing in 2050</b>." </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">All this means is France will not have some nuclear manpower resources for
any Australian Barracuda SSN Project until the late 2040s, if not after 2050. That includes too few Frenchmen even to train up
an Australian workforce - with our workforce totally inexperienced in building
SSNs. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Hedging Plan</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">As SSNs from the US are politically unprovable until the 2030s and unlikely to be in the form of SSN-AUKUS for the RAN before 2045, and even less likely and later from France, <b>a hedging plan is appropriate</b>.
That is:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> - as ASA has written, Australia doing its Collins LOTE. I suggest Saab with its experience, effectively LOTEing the Gotland-class, can assist see </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotland-class_submarine#Mid-life_upgrade_contract"><b>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotland-class_submarine#Mid-life_upgrade_contract</b></a> . </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">- Australia is also developing XLUUVs (partly under AUKUS Pillar 2). XLUUVs can lay smartmines, do electronic intercepts and other reconnaissance and even tow sonars. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">- Australia alongside the US and UK, partly under AUKUS, could develop ever longer range missiles for long range strike,
including anti-shipping. <o:p></o:p></span><span color="windowtext" face="Arial, sans-serif">Such missiles already include Tomahawks. New types of longer range hypersonic (steerable) missiles are where the West's peer competitors (China and Russia) are venturing. For example something like a Western equivalent of
China's <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-26" target="_blank">DF-26</a></b> (anti-ship capable) missile may be of medium-long term value for Australia. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p>It is no coincidence that </o:p></span><span color="windowtext">Australia is developing dual-use long range missile
capabilities under cover of NASA assistance (see the "Mar 2018" and "Jul 2018" items <b><a href="https://www.gspace.com/about" target="_blank">here</a></b>) in Australia's Gilmour Space Technologies <b><a href="https://www.gspace.com/launch" target="_blank">"Block 1" "rocket" or missile</a></b>. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" style="font-family: arial;">Please don't get me started on the possibilities of the Australian developed third generation <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separation_of_isotopes_by_laser_excitation" target="_blank">"SILEX" laser enrichment of Uranium technology</a></b> or where I'm going might be too obvious...</span></span></p><p></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-75191326139832399282024-02-17T09:10:00.002+11:002024-02-17T09:10:26.994+11:00Honeytrap: Love Interest or Sexpionage?<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: medium;">See <a href="https://news.clearancejobs.com/author/peter-suciu/" title="View all posts by Peter Suciu"><span style="background: white; color: #007bff; font-family: "Source Sans Pro",sans-serif;"><span itemprop="name" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><b>Peter
Suciu</b></span></span></a>’s article of Feb 14, 2024 <br /></span><b><i><span style="font-size: medium;"><br />Honeytrap Warning: Love
Interest or Sexpionage? </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 115%;">at <b><a href="https://news.clearancejobs.com/2024/02/14/honeytrap-warning-love-interest-or-sexpionage/">https://news.clearancejobs.com/2024/02/14/honeytrap-warning-love-interest-or-sexpionage/</a>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></b></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-20814665673703745882024-02-15T11:40:00.002+11:002024-02-15T11:41:27.196+11:00Would-be "SSN Countries" US Rejected: RL32418 Part 1.<div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Much military information, normally Secret throughout the West, Russia and China, is Unclassified in the US, via the US Government supported/manned <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Research_Service" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service (CRS)</a></b>.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">See the CRS' <span color="windowtext">February
13, 2024 report RL32418<br /><br /></span></span><span color="windowtext">titled </span><b style="color: windowtext;"><i>“Navy Virginia-Class Submarine Program and AUKUS Submarine Proposal:
Background and Issues for Congress”<br /><br /></i></b><span color="windowtext">at </span><b style="color: windowtext;"><a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RL32418.pdf">https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RL32418.pdf</a></b></span></p></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">For the record - Excerpts include:</span></b></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>[Page 16] "Previous Countries That Requested but Did Not Receive U.S. Naval Nuclear
Propulsion Technology</b> </span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Overview</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">U.S. submarine technology and naval nuclear propulsion technology, reflecting decades of
cumulative U.S. Navy research, development, design, construction, and operational experience,
are generally considered <b>crown jewels</b> of U.S. military technology and consequently are highly
protected. As noted earlier, the technical (including acoustic) superiority of U.S. Navy nuclear powered submarines is generally considered a foundation of U.S. superiority in undersea warfare,
which in turn underpins a U.S. ability to leverage the world’s oceans as a medium of operations
and maneuver, deny that to others, and thereby generate a huge asymmetric strategic advantage
for the United States. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Given both its high degree of importance to overall U.S. national security strategy and U.S.
technical superiority in the field, U.S. naval nuclear propulsion technology to date has been
shared with only one other country—the UK, through an arrangement begun in 1958 reflecting
the U.S.-UK special relationship and U.S.-UK cooperation on nuclear-related matters dating back
to the Manhattan project in World War II. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>[Page 17] </b>As detailed below, during the Cold War, when the United States and its allies were engaged in an
extended, high-stakes, and costly strategic competition <b>against the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact</b>
allies, <b><span style="color: red;">the United States reportedly turned down requests from four U.S. treaty allies [other than
the UK, namely]—France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan—to share U.S. naval nuclear propulsion
technology. A fifth U.S. treaty ally—Canada—also requested but did not receive this technology. </span></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Canada</b> canceled its SSN project before the United States <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada-class_submarine#American_opposition" target="_blank">acted fully on Canada’s request</a></b>. A sixth
country, <b>Pakistan</b>, also requested but did not receive the technology.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Detailed Discussion</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In a November 18, 1987, presentation at a conference in Ottawa, <b>Canada,</b> U.S. Navy Captain
Robert F. Hofford, the U.S. naval attaché in Ottawa—who stated that he was expressing his own
views, which did not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. government—stated that </span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Canada</b> is not the only country that has requested this particular advantage from the U.S.
As a matter of fact, Canada stands at the end of a line of about six different nations [other
than the UK] that have requested exactly the same support from the U.S. for [a] nuclear
submarine program. In fact we have turned them all down up to this point, so Canada is in
a unique position of being the first country other than the British to be allowed or to even
start a technology information flow that will allow the country to pursue its lines toward a
nuclear program.<b>39 </b></span></i></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Regarding France, Italy, and the Netherlands, </b>a November 5, 1987, letter from Representative
Melvin Price to Secretary of Defense Caspar W. Weinberger and Secretary of Energy John S.
Herrington, the full text of which is reprinted in Appendix E, states in part</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">It is important to appreciate that there is nothing new about an ally wanting our naval
nuclear propulsion technology—or about the consistently strong U.S. policy against its
releases. Over the years, we have turned down requests from a number of countries,
including <b>France, Italy, and the Netherlands.</b></span></i></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> Regarding <b>France,</b> a 1989 journal article on assistance that the United States provided to France
on the design of French nuclear warheads stated </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">One area in which the <b>French</b> requested but did not receive help was in antisubmarine warfare (ASW) technology and, in particular, in silencing their own ballistic missile
submarines to make them less easily tracked by Soviet hunter-killers. The U.S. Navy
adamantly opposed any such assistance. Behind the navy’s position was the extreme
sensitivity of its own counter-ASW regime. “The security of our Poseidon-Trident force
was so important that we were not going to share with anybody else the methods we used
to preserve it,” a senior civilian told me. Another said, “This is a jewel the navy will give
to no one.”<b>40 </b></span></i></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Regarding<b> Japan,</b> Admiral Kinnaird R. McKee, then-Director of the U.S. Naval Nuclear
Propulsion Program (aka Naval Reactors), testified in March 1988: </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>Frankly, I think <b>Japan</b> is smart enough, if they really want to, to develop a phase-to-phase
[sic: phased-array] radar.<b>41</b> They have also asked us for help in nuclear submarines. We say[,] “If you want to get into the nuclear submarine business, go ahead and do it. You
don’t need our help.”<b>42</b></i>
<br /><br />Regarding <b>Pakistan</b>, Admiral McKee testified in March 1988: “We have a letter from the
Pakistanis who want one [i.e., a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine] because the Soviets gave [sic:
leased] one [i.e., a Soviet nuclear-powered submarine] to India.<b>43</b>
<br /><br />Admiral McKee’s testimony about<b> Japan and Pakistan</b> was given in connection with a project that
<b>Canada</b> initiated in 1987 to acquire a force of 10 to 12 UK- or French-made SSNs. A choice by
Canada to select the UK SSN design (the Trafalgar-class design) would have involved the transfer
to Canada of naval nuclear propulsion technology in the Trafalgar-class design that was derived
from the naval nuclear propulsion technology that the United States provided to the UK
beginning in 1958, which would have raised a <b>question of U.S. approval for a potential sale of
UK-made SSNs to Canada.</b> The issue was discussed in a 1988 CRS report.<b>44</b> Canada canceled its
SSN project in 1989, mooting the potential question of whether to share with Canada naval
nuclear propulsion technology in the Trafalgar-class design that was derived from the naval
nuclear propulsion technology that the United States provided to the UK beginning in 1958. For
1987-1988 letters and statements from Members of Congress regarding the Canadian SSN
project, see Appendix E.
</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>[Footnotes]</b><br /><b>39</b> Transcript of presentation.
<br /><b>40</b> Richard H. Ullman, “The Covert <b>French</b> Connection,” Foreign Policy, Summer 1989 (No. 75): 16-17, accessed at </span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1148862"><span style="font-size: medium;">https://www.jstor.org/stable/1148862</span></a></span></b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><b>41</b> Admiral McKee’s testimony at this point is referring to a proposal at the time, which he was asked to comment on, to
sell to Japan the U.S. Navy’s surface ship Aegis weapon system, which included the SPY-1 phased-array radar. The
system was eventually sold to Japan and is now used on eight Japanese destroyers. The system was also sold to <b>South
Korea, Australia, Spain, and Norway</b> for use on ships in the navies of those countries. For more on the Aegis system,
(continued...)
Navy Virginia-Class Submarine Program and AUKUS Submarine Proposal
Congressional Research Service 18
say[,] “If you want to get into the nuclear submarine business, go ahead and do it. You
don’t need our help.”<br /><b>42</b>
Regarding <b>Pakistan</b>, Admiral McKee testified in March 1988: “We have a letter from the
Pakistanis who want one [i.e., a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine] because the Soviets gave [sic:
leased] one [i.e., a Soviet nuclear-powered submarine] to India.<br /><b>43</b>
Admiral McKee’s testimony about <b>Japan and Pakistan</b> was given in connection with a project that
Canada initiated in 1987 to acquire a force of 10 to 12 UK- or French-made SSNs. A choice by
Canada to select the UK SSN design (the Trafalgar-class design) would have involved the transfer
to Canada of naval nuclear propulsion technology in the Trafalgar-class design that was derived
from the naval nuclear propulsion technology that the United States provided to the UK
beginning in 1958, which would have raised a question of<b> U.S. approval for a potential sale of
UK-made SSNs to Canada.</b> The issue was discussed in a 1988 CRS report.<br /><b>44</b> <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada-class_submarine#American_opposition" target="_blank">Canada canceled</a></b> its
SSN project in 1989, mooting the potential question of whether to share with Canada naval
nuclear propulsion technology in the Trafalgar-class design that was derived from the naval
nuclear propulsion technology that the United States provided to the UK beginning in 1958. For
1987-1988 letters and statements from Members of Congress regarding the Canadian SSN
project, see Appendix E." </span></div>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-53302816930902038292024-02-12T14:23:00.007+11:002024-02-17T09:15:55.261+11:00Trump Parrots Putin's Policies<p class="yiv7952705978msonormal" style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: center;"><br /></p><p class="yiv7952705978msonormal" style="background: white;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background: white;">One of the KGB's top Cold War roles was to use covert methods (including </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent_of_influence" target="_blank">Agents of Influence</a></b></span><span style="font-family: arial;">) to try to split the NATO alliance and alienate Western citizens from their governments. Hence the USSR encouraged unilateral nuclear disarmament calls of protesters within NATO countries in the 1980s, but not among the threatened masses of Warsaw Pact countries. </span></span></p><p class="yiv7952705978msonormal" style="background: white;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ex-KGB man Putin (now Commander-in-Chief of all Russia's external intelligence agencies as well as FSB) has a record of successfully <b><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/17/putins-poodle-newspapers-declare-trump-a-traitor-after-helsinki-summit" target="_blank">manipulating Trump</a></b> as an Agent of Influence. Trump parroted some Putin policies during Trump's first presidency. Such as Trump typifying the US intelligence community as a "<b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_state_in_the_United_States#Usage_by_Trump_and_allies" target="_blank">Deep State</a></b>". This may resume during Trump's second presidency.</span></span></p><p class="yiv7952705978msonormal" style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span style="background: white; color: red;">1.</span></b><span style="background: white; color: red;"> </span><b><span style="background: white; color: #00b050;"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-12/nato-says-donald-trump-russia-comments-putting-allies-at-risk/103454340">Reported</a></span></b><span style="background: white; color: #00b050;"> </span><span style="background: white;">12 Feb: Speaking at a rally in
South Carolina on 10/11 Feb 2024 Trump recalled when he was President (2017-2021)
Trump told a NATO member that Trump would "encourage" Russia to do as
it wishes in cases of NATO allies who are "delinquent".[ie. A NATO
country paying less than 2% of its GDP on Defence]. "'No I would not
protect you. In fact I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell
they want”. [to your NATO country].</span></span></p><p class="yiv7952705978msonormal" style="background: white;"><span style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Biden commented: "If my opponent, Donald Trump, is able to regain power,
he is making it clear as day that he will abandon our NATO allies if Russia
attacks," he said. "[Trump’s] admission that he intends to give Putin
a green-light for more war and violence, to continue his brutal assault against
a <b>free Ukraine</b>, and to expand his aggression to the people of Poland and
the Baltic states are appalling and dangerous."<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraphparagraphqitb" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="background: white; color: red; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 150%;">2. </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 150%;">If Trump wins the
November 5th, 2024 Election Trump may broker a Russo-Ukraine peace treaty that
might largely be drafted by Putin. Hence the resulting Russian
victory over Ukraine would benefit Putin as well as</span><span style="color: #00b050; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 150%;"><a href="https://youtu.be/tWiJEgSaHW8?si=XkG-dOmwYGnxXWsw" target="_blank"><b>Putin's
friend Trump</b></a>. This is in terms of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization#Financing"><b>Russian
money through intermediaries for Trump</b></a>. A Russian victory over
Ukraine might also embolden China into such risky behavior as blockading Taiwan
– starving Taiwan into surrender. <br />
If China took Taiwan then the current third of Chinese military forces (aimed
at Taiwan) would be freed up for longer distance ventures – one day impacting
us in <b>Australia</b>. After all China is not just rapidly expanding its
military budget (now more than A$400 Billion per year) for mainland defence.</span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="yiv7952705978msonormal" style="background: white; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><span style="background: white; color: red;">3.</span></b><span style="background: white; color: red;"> </span><span style="background: white;">Further on US politics that directly impacts
Australia. Biden’s loss in the November Election seems assured with the</span><span style="background: white; color: #00b050;"> <b><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024-5479667" target="_blank">horserace like odds</a></b> </span><span style="background: white;">on a Biden win plunging over the last week to 3.40 against Trump’s 1.91
(as at 12 Feb). Biden is now seen by many as an</span><span style="background: white; color: #00b050;"> </span><span style="color: black;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_classified_documents_incident#Special_counsel"><b><span style="background: white;">illegal hoarder of secret documents like Trump</span></b></a><span style="background: white;">. </span></span><span style="background: white;">What’s
worse Biden is seen by the Justice Department Special Counsel <b>Robert Hur</b>
as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory”. <b>Hur is a former official <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_K._Hur#United_States_Attorney" target="_blank">nominated to high office by Trump</a><span style="color: #00b050;">.</span></b> The Trump camp are saying if Biden is too senile
to stand trial Biden is too senile to be President. </span></span></p><p class="yiv7952705978msonormal" style="background: white; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: white;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="yiv7952705978msonormal" style="background: white; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: white;">There may be hope Biden is prepared for someone
else, like <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelle_Obama#Subsequent_activities_(2018%E2%80%93present)" target="_blank">Michelle Obama</a></b>, to become the Democrat nominee, pre 2024 Election.</span></span></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-20473251487546814262024-02-11T12:30:00.002+11:002024-02-12T11:24:35.456+11:00Wars Benefitting the West & Dictatorships<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span color="windowtext" style="font-size: medium;">2024 is shaping up to be a year of conflict and competition
in international relations.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The world seems to be returning to a Cold War with
authoritarian Russia, Iran and their Middle Eastern proxies on one hand versus
the Western democracies on the other hand. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Which side(s) China and India, in the
middle, back are key. China is a trading partner for most countries, but
increasingly Russia's major financier. China siding with Russia gives
Putin hope he can win in Ukraine.</span><span color="windowtext"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Ukraine’s clear right to exist is mixed with US organised
Western military support aimed at eroding Russian military and political power.
The Ukraine war may be <b><a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2421-1.html#:~:text=RAND%20researchers%20estimated%20the%20costs,to%20%24132%20billion%20through%202024." target="_blank">costing Russia about</a></b> US$200 million/day and weakening Russia’s
army and <b><a href="https://www.newsweek.com/russia-black-sea-fleet-losses-ukraine-war-crimea-1867614" target="_blank">navy</a></b>. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Western sanctions on Russian energy sales are leading to international energy scarcity, with consequent energy price
rises and <b><a href="https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/fossil-gas/crisis-year-2022-brought-134-billion-in-excess-profit-to-the-wests-five-largest-oil-and-gas-companies/" target="_blank">higher profits</a></b> for US, Arab and Australian energy companies<b>.</b> <b>This boosts the national incomes from tax of the Western energy exporting countries, while hurting energy importing countries and Western consumers. </b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><b>The Ukraine and Middle East wars also
<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-21/us-arms-industry-military-spending-profits-ukraine-war-russia/101843752" target="_blank">benefit US arms companies</a> selling weapons and ammunition to the US Defense Department.</b> US political power over NATO has been strengthened by the Ukraine War.
The latter war frustrates Putin’s </span><span>expansion </span><span color="windowtext">plans elsewhere. <b>All this increases the
chances of Biden’s re-election but may bite Biden as war fatigue hits the American public.</b> Biden is already blamed by many for losing the war in Afghanistan <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_U.S._troop_withdrawal_from_Afghanistan#Controversy_over_withdrawal_claim" target="_blank">in August 2021</a></b>.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>If Trump wins the November 5th, 2024 Election Trump "the Statesman" may broker a Russo-Ukraine peace treaty that might largely be drafted by Putin.</span><span> Hence the resulting </span><span color="windowtext">Russian
victory over Ukraine would benefit Putin as well as <b><a href="https://youtu.be/tWiJEgSaHW8?si=XkG-dOmwYGnxXWsw" target="_blank">Putin's friend Trump</a></b>. A Russian victory over Ukraine might also embolden China into such risky behaviour as blockading Taiwan. </span><span color="windowtext"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span color="windowtext" style="font-size: medium;">Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel actually benefits
Russia by costing the West. Russia <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Russia_relations#Military" target="_blank">supports Iran</a></b> in weapons and as an ally.
Iran in turn supports anti-Western forces throughout the Middle East including
Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard regional forces and Houthis in Yemen. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext">The Hamas-Israel war may be costing Israel <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#Economic_impact" target="_blank">more than US$100 million/day</a>. </b></span><span color="windowtext">Also that war and the broader Iran aligned conflict may be costing the US $100 million/day to fund US Middle East military and CIA paramilitary operations that favour Israel. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><span color="windowtext">The US is made to look two-faced by supplying Israel
with weapons and ammunition, while the US purports to be a regional peacemaker. </span><span>Israel, in killing too many Palestinian civilians, has eroded any residual Western moral exceptionalism.</span></span><span> </span></span></p><p></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-18135011080513248992024-02-09T20:22:00.002+11:002024-02-09T20:23:27.526+11:00PNG Prime Minister Marape Visits Australia<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">As if in answer to <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/01/ukraine-declining-gaza-raised-forget-png.html" target="_blank">my prayers</a></b> the Australian Government is suddenly taking more notice of Papua New Guinea (<b>PNG</b>).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><i>ABC</i> Article</b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">On February 8, 2024 </span><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif" style="letter-spacing: 0.4pt;">foreign affairs reporter </span><a data-component="ContentLink" data-uri="coremedia://person/166934" href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/stephen-dziedzic/166934" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: var(--colour-tap-highlight); border-bottom: var(--link-border,var(--black-20)); box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures; touch-action: manipulation;"><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif" style="letter-spacing: 0.4pt;"><b>Stephen Dziedzic</b> </span></a><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif" style="letter-spacing: 0.4pt;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures;">and PNG correspondent </span></span><a data-component="ContentLink" data-uri="coremedia://person/9107310" href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/tim-swanston/9107310" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: var(--colour-tap-highlight); border-bottom: var(--link-border,var(--black-20)); box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: no-common-ligatures; touch-action: manipulation;"><span face=""Segoe UI", sans-serif" style="letter-spacing: 0.4pt;"><b>Tim Swanston</b></span></a><span style="letter-spacing: 0.533333px;"> </span><span face="Segoe UI, sans-serif"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.533333px;">for </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Australia's Government owned <i>ABC News</i> </span><b style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-08/prime-minister-of-png-james-marape-address-parliament/103442156" target="_blank">reported</a></b><span style="font-family: arial;">: </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">[In a visit to Australia on February 8, 2024] "<span style="background-color: white;"><b>Papua New
Guinea Prime Minister James Marape urges Australia to not 'give up' on his
country in historic parliament address</b>"<br /><br /></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="350" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LJxRf1qx3oE" width="500" youtube-src-id="LJxRf1qx3oE"></iframe><br /></span><p class="yiv7952705978msonormal" style="background: white; line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-size: medium; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><a href="https://youtu.be/LJxRf1qx3oE?si=GsmJ31Vul72Vfj__" target="_blank">Here</a></b> and above [PNG's Prime Minister James Marape is the first Pacific leader to address a
joint sitting of both houses of Australia's Parliament.]</span><br /><span face="Helvetica, sans-serif">---<o:p></o:p></span></span></p></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>"</span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif;">In Short:</strong><span face="abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif"> </span><span face="abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif">PNG's Prime Minister <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Marape" target="_blank">James Marape</a></b> became the first Pacific leader to address a joint sitting of both houses of parliament.</span><aside class="ContentAlignment_marginBottom__4H_6E ContentAlignment_overflowAuto__c1_IL ContentAlignment_outdentDesktop__ijbiK LegacyWysiwyg_wysiwyg___2JFa" data-component="LegacyWysiwyg" data-print="inline-media" data-uri="coremedia://teaser/103443182" style="border: 1px solid var(--grey-border); box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; margin-right: -4rem; overflow: auto; padding: 1rem; transform: translateX(-2rem);" title="PNG summary box"><ul class="ContentAlignment_marginBottom__4H_6E ContentAlignment_overflowVisible__N2zKU List_unordered__yNZx8" data-component="List" role="list" style="box-sizing: border-box; list-style: none; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 0px;"><li data-component="ListItem" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.75rem; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; padding-left: 1.5rem; position: relative;"><span class="ListItem_bullet__cfb02 ListItem_square__fOyp0" style="box-sizing: border-box; height: 0.75rem; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0.5rem; width: 0.75rem;"></span><span>He said the two countries shared a unique relationship and urged Australia not to give up on PNG.</span></li><li data-component="ListItem" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.75rem; padding-left: 1.5rem; position: relative;"><span class="ListItem_bullet__cfb02 ListItem_square__fOyp0" style="box-sizing: border-box; height: 0.75rem; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0.5rem; width: 0.75rem;"></span><span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">What's next?</strong> Mr Marape will return home on Friday where he could face a no confidence motion as soon as next week.</span></li></ul></aside><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>The Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea James Marape has urged Australia to not "give up" on his country during an historic address to the federal parliament.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>On Thursday morning, Mr Marape became the first Pacific leader to address the joint sitting of both houses, with MPs and Senators packing into the lower house to listen.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>The prime minister dwelt heavily on the shared history between Australia and Papua New Guinea, paying tribute to prime minister <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gough_Whitlam" target="_blank">Gough Whitlam</a></b> who helped shepherd his country to independence almost 50 years ago.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>"It was from this parliament that many decisions were made that have helped and shaped what Papua New Guinea was before 1975, and what Papua New Guinea is after 1975," Mr Marape said.</span></p><div class="EmphasisedText_emphasisedText__h0tpv ContentAlignment_marginBottom__4H_6E ContentAlignment_overflowAuto__c1_IL" data-component="EmphasisedText" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 2rem; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem; overflow: auto; text-align: center;"><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span>"This is why Papua New Guinea has a very special and very unique relationship with Australia. We are the only country Australia has birthed."</span></p></div><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>He acknowledged that Papua New Guinea continues to grapple with profound social and economic difficulties in the wake of riots that gripped the capital Port Moresby [<b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-solomons-now-png-in-chinas-grasp.html" target="_blank">on January 10, 2024</a></b>], but declared that his government was intent on overhauling the public sector, police force and judiciary in order to improve stability.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>"It is true our people need greater empowerment in many aspects of their life. But not all is bad. Not all is bad," he told the joint sitting.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>"Nearly 50 years on, our democracy remains strong as ever …. we have not fallen to the barrel of the gun as many emerging nations."</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>Australia has extended multiple loans and grants to Papua New Guinea worth billions of dollars to help support its budget bottom line and develop its infrastructure, and last year the two nations struck a security pact which will see Canberra plough a further $200 million into developing PNG's police force and judiciary.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>Mr Marape said PNG's leaders had to deal with a vast and inaccessible landscape, widespread illiteracy and a large and hugely diverse population.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>"As I visit you today, I ask you — do not give up on Papua New Guinea," the prime minister said.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>"We have always bounced back from our low moments and we will continue to grow, learning from every low moments and every high moments."</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>Mr Marape has repeatedly spoken about the critical need to expand PNG's economic base and cut its dependency on development assistance, and he struck a similar theme on [the morning of </span><span style="font-family: arial;">February 8, 2024]</span><span>.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>"Papua New Guinea must not continue to be an aid grant receiving nation, a nation that is borrowing every year to survive," he told the joint sitting.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>"We must become a strong country standing on our own two feet economically independent and strong so we too can help Australia maintain democracy, preserve peace and ensure stability in our part of planet Earth, in our Pacific."</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><span>The prime minister also drew a laugh when describing Australia and PNG as siblings which were joined at the hip.</span></p><p class="paragraph_paragraph___QITb" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem; text-align: left;"><span><span style="text-align: center;">[Said Prime Minister Marape] </span><span style="text-align: center;">"One is stuck with family forever … our two countries are stuck with each other. We have no choice but to get along."</span></span></p></span></span>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-81900025425126260372024-02-02T15:42:00.002+11:002024-02-02T16:12:42.994+11:00PNG-China Security Cooperation Increasing<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://gdb.voanews.com/1B3F6D30-3D4D-489E-85F4-1284A61B5D8F_w1023_r1_s.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://gdb.voanews.com/1B3F6D30-3D4D-489E-85F4-1284A61B5D8F_w1023_r1_s.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a large island nation. See PNG above in relation to Australia and the Solomon Islands. (Map courtesy <i><a href="https://www.voanews.com/" target="_blank">VOA News</a></i>). <br /><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">It is likely China will win the <b><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-29/china-png-pacific-security-policing-cooperation-justin-tkachenko/103402660" target="_blank">new round</a></b> of competition to supply security police and training to Papua New Guinea</span> (<b>PNG</b>). Unlike PNG’s long term security sponsor (Australia) China has been prepared to bribe <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/08/china-debt-trapping-solomons-for-island.html" target="_blank">whole Pacific Island parliaments</a></b>,
as China did with the Solomon Islands in 2022.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">PNG holds many attractions for China, including abundant energy resources, minerals and an ideal strategic position between the Indian and Pacific oceans (epitomised by <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lombrum_Naval_Base" target="_blank">Lombrum Naval Base</a></b>).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Corruption in PNG is widely accepted as a
<b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Papua_New_Guinea#:~:text=Political%20corruption%20in%20Papua%20New,secure%20and%20maintain%20popular%20support" target="_blank">political necessity</a></b>.
China, with its deeper pockets and the higher priority it places on expanding relations with Pacific islands, can outbid even Australian and US efforts. PNG politicians can accept "commissions" for Chinese security equipment deals - equipment that goes to the underpaid, under-resourced, PNG police force. Chinese security police advisors can then help set the tone of bilateral relations. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">For previous <i>Submarine Matters' </i>articles on PNG see <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-solomons-now-png-in-chinas-grasp.html" target="_blank">here</a></b> and <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/01/ukraine-declining-gaza-raised-forget-png.html" target="_blank">here</a></b>. </span></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-26367718778270286012024-01-31T16:39:00.002+11:002024-01-31T16:42:04.359+11:00Ukraine declining, Gaza raised, forget PNG.<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">International news largely becomes
reality via resident press corps who write it in far off capitals. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">On the current </span><span>public interest </span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">scale of conflicts </span><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">the
Russia-Ukraine War has declined. Ukraine is becoming a forgotten war in part because there's no win in sight, like Afghanistan
before the latter's fall. Ukraine boasts a white population. But they speak a
heavily accented impenetrable language, that may as well be Russian to English
speakers, who live far from Ukraine. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">Ukraine has been replaced as the top international media war by Israel versus the Arab and Iranian
worlds. Gaza is being <b><a href="https://hinative.com/questions/236972" target="_blank">"raised" or razed</a></b> to the ground in terms of being flattened, by Israeli bombs. Many Israelis speak clear English. Israel's nuclear weapons make Israel a constant
American responsibly in the Middle East. Israel maintenance is a thankless task for America, but neglecting
Israel might “justify” an Israeli nuclear attack on Iran…The Jewish diaspora,
<b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIPAC" target="_blank">particularly in the US</a></b>, frequently highlight Israel’s problems, while on the whole, pressuring Washington
to forever support Israel. Meanwhile, US Governments attempt to maintain at least a public <b>veneer</b> of even handedness throughout the Middle East. Long term Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu#Early_career" target="_blank">the most influential advocate for Israel</a></b> during his lobbyist and diplomatic days in America in the 1970s and 80s.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In contrast to the above, goings on in obscure, Melanesian,
<b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papua_New_Guinea" target="_blank">Papua New Guinea</a></b> (<b>PNG</b>) are a journalists backwater. PNG is far from world centres of action, although just to the north of Australia. PNG’s capital, Port Moresby, is dangerous for journalists. The small expatriate community, including a tiny press presence, are forced to live in compounds, behind razor wire, “protected” by
reluctant guards and under-resourced local police. This is mostly against <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raskol_gangs" target="_blank">“Roskal” gangs</a></b>. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">PNG is a misogynist society where “Big Men” rule and domestic violence is not
only common, but many law enforcement officials accept drunkenness as a legal
defence in domestic violence cases. Even Witch Burnings are <b><a href="https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/pacific/png-sorcery-12192022194610.html" target="_blank">reported</a></b>. There is <b><a href="https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/pacific/png-minister-daughter-05112023231033.html" target="_blank">luxury</a></b> for the few who can access government funds and poverty for most. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In all this PNG rarely attracts international media attention. It takes dedication and expertise to cover PNG happenings, influenced heavily by personalities and literally by tribal politics.
For Western journalists, inexpensive or free audio-visual feeds are rare in PNG.
This is unlike constant video coverage of tragically injured children in Gaza. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Australian
staff journalists might only fly into PNG for a few hours with reliance placed
on <b><a href="https://youtu.be/SV2UR5o88RA?si=vQ6cK2BoPSIzbCco" target="_blank">part-time expatriate citizen journalists</a></b>. Australia’s Government owned <i><b><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news" target="_blank">ABC News</a></b></i> no
longer employs journalists resident full time in Australia's closest neighbour, PNG. Former <i>ABC</i> journalist <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Dorney" target="_blank">Sean Dorney</a></b> used to be a PNG expert correspondent. But expert journalists can be personally threatened then expelled by the Pacific island
governments they are reporting on.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; line-height: 150%;">Where this is all going is that PNG is shaping up to be the <b><a href="https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-solomons-now-png-in-chinas-grasp.html" target="_blank">next target</a></b> of China’s expanding Pacific sphere of influence. This will be briefly
examined later this week.</span></p><p></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19245896.post-71839781419313924762024-01-30T11:33:00.002+11:002024-01-31T11:11:13.570+11:00UK's SSN-AUKUS a Risky Route for Australia<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><b><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;"><a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-sad-state-of-royal-navy-submarine-capability-and-the-implications-for-australia/" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: large;">Here</span></a></span></b><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span color="windowtext" lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">is an excellent and disturbing article of
January 30, 2024, </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">by retired submarine specialist and a past president of the Submarine Institute of Australia </span><b style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/author/peter-briggs/" target="_blank">Peter Briggs</a></b><span style="font-family: arial;">,</span><span color="windowtext" style="font-family: arial;"> published at ASPI’s </span><i style="color: windowtext; font-family: arial;"><b><a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/" target="_blank">The Strategist</a></b></i><span color="windowtext" style="font-family: arial;"> and</span><span color="windowtext" style="font-family: arial;"> titled</span><b style="color: windowtext; font-family: arial;"> “The sad state of Royal Navy submarine capability - and the
implications for Australia”</b><span color="windowtext" style="font-family: arial;">.</span></span></p><br /><p></p>Pete2http://www.blogger.com/profile/06134037393078707072noreply@blogger.com4