In response to Anonymous' interesting comment of December 6, 2022:
FLEET BASE WEST (FBW) SSN MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR
USN SSNs, and to a lesser extent their SSGNs, seem to be the most frequent foreign sub visitors to FBW / HMAS Stirling - see my "US Nuclear Subs Visiting Fleet Base West, WA since 2005"
If a US submarine tender (probably of the Emory S. Land-class or replacement class) was stationed at FBW it could handle routine maintenance of US SSNs. It would probably take 15+ years to build such a ship (and/or shore facilities) and train up RAN personnel to have equivalent SSN maintenance skills.
The USN's Guam base, then Yokosuka (Japan) Base, then Pearl Harbour could complete ever increasing deeper maintenance and some repairs.
Then US Naval Base Kitsap-Bremerton, Washington State and/or San Diego for the deepest SSN maintenance and greater repairs.
Note, that all these US Pacific Bases are much closer than the UK. This is a major argument for Australia choosing US designed SSNs rather than UK designed SSNs.
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Some maintenance at FBW for the infrequent visits of UK and French SSNs may one day be possible. If Australia chooses a UK SSN design then maintenance and repair of UK SSNs may be possible after 2040.
If a UK design is not chosen then deeper maintenance and repair facilities might be best done in far off northern hemisphere UK (and of course French) submarine yards - with damaged subs being carried by Heavy Lift Ship.
In the 2040s, if RAN SSNs are built, by then, in Adelaide, then that may be the best place for major repair and deep maintenance of RAN SSNs. FBW would then (after 2040) be the best place for minor repair and routine maintenance of RAN SSNs.
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BUYING B-21s?
Like Anonymous I'm also not enthusiastic about B-21s. Due to the following:
- the average infrastructure and project cost for Australia, may be A$45+ Billion for 12 x B-21s. This is based on US$2.13 billion per earlier/similar B-2 in 1997 dollars. Contrary to aircraft maker claims, new types of military jet aircraft are always more expensive - especially if Australia needs to build B-21 infrastructure from scratch. Also very high maintenance costs per B-21 flight hour should be anticipated.
- the delay getting them operational in the RAAF (just a few years before Australian SSNs might enter service). See this estimate:
"The timing for achieving a fully operational capability in a maritime strike role in the Royal Australian Air Force is hard to estimate given the B-21’s current status and the delays already experienced. The 2040s, or later, seems reasonable."
- to get full value B-21s are envisaged as dual-weapon capable ie. can also be nuclear armed. Is Australia willing to nuclear bomb Chinese fleets or the Chinese mainland?
and
- a RAAF B-21 squadron base in Australia could always be pre-emptively struck by (even mere) conventional warhead Chinese ballistic or hypersonic cruise missiles.
2 comments:
Pete
I share your concerns about B21s being seen as some sort of panacea to solve the problem of costly SSNs. They are not.
The fundamental problem is that B21s and SSNs can do different things. B21s can do long range anti shipping strike as well or better than SSNs. But they can’t do ASW. They can’t do peacetime surveillance. They can’t do special forces insertion. They can’t protect underwater pipelines and cables. They can’t remain on station as a passive deterrent. They have to be launched, and will be detected when they do.
Thanks Anonymous @Dec 9, 2022, 9:15:00 AM
Yes I think the Defence Strategic Review https://www.defence.gov.au/about/reviews-inquiries/defence-strategic-review which is being led by a former Air Chief Marshal (Sir Angus Houston), as well as a Labor fixer,
will likely express the need for a long range air capability (maybe without specifying "B-21") implicitly to fill the long range strike capability GAP
left by most Collins being retired in the 2030s with perhaps no Commissioned Australian SSNs until the late 2040s.
But, as you say, a B-21 cannot do many things a submarine can do
and Australian B-21s may operate so Late in the 2040s that they fail to fill any GAP.
Regards Pete
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