UK/France Cannot Nuclear/Conventionally Protect Australia

In response to Anonymous' May 19, 2025 comment:

I, of course, agree with your first paragraph.

Regarding your second paragraph on any UK/European deterrence umbrella for Australia:

In 2024, the Federation of American Scientists estimated Russia had 5,580 nuclear warheads (facing NATO, China and possibly North Korea). Against this the US had 5,428 warheads (facing Russia, China, Iran and North Korea).

The UK and France combined only have 550 warheads, with insufficient operational redundancy (maybe 350 in patrolling SSBNs and French air/missile bases) to face even Russia alone.

They have none left to face Australia's nuclear threat - which is China. In any case could we expect them to be prepared to sacrifice London and Paris to protect Sydney?

UK and French SSN and especially new generation SSBN production commitments for their own navies mean they cannot domestically produce SSNs for Australia or oversee SSN production in Australia until the 2040s. This is why Virginias for Australia in the 2030s were such a good idea - in 2021.

Such is China's expansion in naval power in the Western Pacific that widely committed US conventional forces would now be hard pressed to defeat China. 

UK/European conventional naval forces have even poorer force projection to defend Australia. With a shaky US alliance they are fully committed facing the increasing Russian threat. This all means they cannot approach even the US's declining ability to protect Australia from China's naval and military forces.

In an Indo-Pacific war against China the actions of other powers (India, Japan and South Korea) might well amount to self protection (against Chinese land, sea, air and conventional missile forces) before those powers pursue any broad strategy of banding together with Australia.

Also the rumour this year that Russia was discussing a long range aircraft base in Indonesia (in the central Indo-Pacific) presented additional strategic possibilities. One thing is certain - Russia has a powerful, fast moving, nuclear submarine force within its Pacific Fleet. This, at a minimum, gives Russia the ability to upset Australia's 99% reliance on shipping trade.