This is the best video I've seen on AUKUS Virginia problems, particularly 3 minutes 53 seconds onwards. The video is by MilitaryRated run by four former military men from NATO countries Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark. The video was uploaded May 17, 2025.
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There is now rising Trump triggered distrust amongst allies. US transactional deal-making may sharply increase the cost of AUKUS Virginias on the remote chance they are surplus to USN requirements.
A third term Trump may still be in office in the pivotal year 2031 allowing him to decide if used Virginias can go to Australia. Alternatively the equally isolationist, charismatic speaking, Vice President JD Vance might be President 2029-2033. Either might nail AUKUS Virginias' chances.
4 comments:
Thanks Pete. I find myself largely in agreement with the video, at least in terms of its tone if not exact details. I have been concerned about the technical feasibility of AUKUS for a while. Now with Trump in office for another four years IMO the political risks of AUKUS are unacceptable to bank Australian security on. My faith that the RAN will get US SSNs is now <50%.
Solutions may be at hand. Ursula Von der Leyen reportedly raised the prospect of an EU - Australia security (and trade?) deal at the papal mass today. That would have obvious advantages if Trump continues to destabilise NATO. The EU would still contain UK and France and thus could provide a limited nuclear deterrent. We will still need to buy SSNs off one of them either way, so that may be our best option remaining.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/19/eu-australia-security-pact
Hi Anonymous at 5/19/2025 10:50 PM
See my response of May 20, 2025 entitled "UK/France Cannot Nuclear/Conventionally Protect Australia" at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/05/ukfrance-cannot-nuclearconventionally.html
Regards Pete
US agreed to the transfer on nuclear IP to Australia (really an ok for UK to transfer US nuclear IP to Australia). Done & dusted. The A/UK submarine can be built now without US (if it has to). Virginia’s is a seperate question, something a plan B should be developed for (or simply build 3 anyway).
Hi Anonymous at 6/16/2025 11:13 PM
Nothing is "Done & dusted" with Trump. He constantly changes his mind and policies. Even removing the Trump curse the UK and Aus would be unwilling to defy US changes of mind.
Building only 3 of any sub is an inefficient, too expensive, production run.
Pete
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