About subs, military/naval, missiles, nuclear weapons & politics. New Aussie subs have been just talk since 2009. Collins upgrades of partial help. UUVs help more. POTUS may cancel AUKUS Virginias in 2031 as the USN needs all SSNs to the 2040s. Australian Gov ignores US higher priority Columbia SSBNs (one/year being commissioned 2029-2041). Meaning no new Virginias 2030-41? Shawn C and Gessler are excellent authors. Pete.
"The Australian Federal Police (AFP) Close Personal Protection (CPP) squad provides specialized, high-intensity physical security and risk assessment for Australia's key leaders, including the Prime Minister, Governor-General, visiting foreign dignitaries,
and federal parliamentarians. [1, 2, 3] [Pete's OPEN SOURCE calculations: Bodyguards needed just for Federal Parliamentarians, minimum 8 officers (dividing up 24/7 protection) x 226 (76 senators and 150 House of Reps) = 1,808 rounding up, to 2,000+ officers (adding in support, coordination, trainers and supervisors)]
Core Roles and Functions
Full-Time Protection: Delivers 24/7 dedicated security details for high-office holders and critical national figures. [1]
Event-Based Protection: Assesses and manages security risks at major domestic and international political or public events. [1, 2]
Liaison & Threat Mitigation: Coordinates closely with state police and international agencies to evaluate and respond to real-time security threats. [1, 2]
Specialist Units: Collaborates with the AFP's National Security Investigations Teams and tactical response capabilities to counter politically motivated violence. [1, 2]
Current Operational Context
Rising Threats: According to AFP reporting, threats, harassment, and offensive communications directed at federal parliamentarians have surged past 1,067 reported incidents in recent cycles. [1]
Workload Pressures: The Australian Federal Police Association (AFPA) has raised concerns that CPP officers are frequently subjected to extreme overtime and high-stress operational demands amid escalating political polarization. [1, 2]"
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Below is a published book on the around 10,000 person US Secret Service (among other duties it protects US Government politicians and other VIPs (hosted by the US):
[Amazon Kindle edition A$12.99] "In the President's Secret Service: Behind the Scenes with Agents in the Line of Fire and the Presidents They Protect"
by Ronald Kessler "[Blurb] After conducting exclusive interviews with more than one hundred current and former Secret Service agents, bestselling author and award-winning reporter Ronald Kessler reveals their secrets for the first time. Never before has a journalist penetrated the wall of secrecy that surrounds the U.S. Secret Service, that elite corps of agents who pledge to take a bullet to protect the president and his family. Kessler portrays the dangers that agents face and how they carry out their missions--from how they are trained to how they spot and assess potential threats. With fly-on-the-wall perspective, he captures the drama and tension that characterize agents’ lives and reveals what they have seen, providing startling, previously untold stories about the presidents, from John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson to George W. Bush and Barack Obama, as well as about their families, Cabinet officers, and White House aides."
Based exclusively on my Open Source reading(see my "Favourite books") is the following.
AI surveillance tools were partly developed by US, Russian and Chinese "National Security
Agencies" in their joint War on Islamist Terror. AI was/is tightly integrated with their armed services.
AI goes further back than most people think eg. the US-Israeli
multi-million lines of code Stuxnet (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet) Iranian nuclear program wreck-ware extends
back to 2009 (if not earlier). Stuxnet escaped its anti-Iran focus by the 2010s
and began to attack unintended Western and Russian networks - with an
international joint Western and Russian effort eg, Kaspersky Lab finally combatting Stuxnet's
spill over.
These things continue to happen in
intended? or untended? ways. We only see the US (massive AI) corporate face of
what continues to be a heavily civilian and military intelligence reliant software world. Many middle
level US AI company experts received/receive their higher level training while they worked/work for US civilian and military intelligence.
AI overview as at October 19, 2026 with some additional Wikipedia links and Pete's comments in square bolded [...] brackets.
"Indonesia is rapidly modernizing its military under President Prabowo Subianto through major multi-billion-dollar acquisitions spanning fighter jets, warships, submarines, and precision miissiles. [1, 2]
[Pete comment - Subianto's military career [early start in Kopassus and already a General in 1985, goes right back to the Suharto era (being Suharto's son-in-law). But Subianto, now a centrist President, has not turned into the right-wing, coup-inciting, dictator many feared would happen.
Indonesia continues its pattern of buying weapons from many countries: especially France, Turkey, Italy, Russo-Indian BrahMos, maybe from China - maybe to extract favourable offers from the US. The list below does not count the many other orders by Indonesia, arrived (eg. from Russia) or on their way from many other countries: eg. aircraftships103 Leopard 2s already here.
Indonesia's weapons are mainly focussed on internal security and regional competitors. Unlike Australia (with help from the US) Indonesia has no pretensions to get in a medium level fight against China.].
Air Force & Aviation
Dassault Rafale F4 Fighters (France): Indonesia ordered [high end 4.5 Generation] 42 Rafale jets; the first six units (four single-seats and two double-seats) were formally commissioned into Air Squadron 12 at Halim Perdanakusuma Air Base in May 2026, equipped with MBDA Meteor missiles and AASM Hammer guided bombs. [1, 2]
Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) national combat aircraft KAAN [see TAI website - in English - takes a while to download] ---
TAI KAAN Stealth Fighters (Turkey): Contracted for 48 fifth-generation KAAN fighter jets from Turkish Aerospace Industries with planned deliveries starting in 2032. [1, 2] [Pete comment - maybe 5th Gen but without the strike package (intelligence/sensor backup) provided to US and Israeli 5th Gen].
Support & Transport Aircraft: Inducted an Airbus A400M transport aircraft and four Falcon 8X transport aircraft. [1, 2]
Navy & Maritime Defense
KRI Sriwijaya Aircraft Carrier: Commissioned the former Italian aircraft carrier ITS Giuseppe Garibaldi as the KRI Sriwijaya, arriving at Tanjung Priok Port, Indonesia in September 2026. [1, 2] [43 years old since launch in Italy. Only 14,000 tonnes full load. Maybe vanity flagship [but better than Thailand's] in "response" to Australia's much larger Canberra-class LHD. Just helicopter air wing, to date, like the Canberras]
BrahMos & Astra Missiles (India): Finalized a $630 million strategic defense pact with India to acquire BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles and Astra beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles for Sukhoi-30 integration. [1, 2] [A very dangerous Russian-Indian developed missile, depending on its flight profile.]
[AI reports as at June 2026 Japan and Indonesia have initiated working-level discussions regarding
the potential transfer of retired Japanese Navy Asagiri-class up to 5,000 tonne full load destroyers to the Indonesian Navy.]
KHAN Ballistic Missiles (Turkey): Deployed the Turkish-built Roketsan KHAN/Bora short-range ballistic missile system, giving the Indonesian Army a 300-kilometer strike range. [1, 2] [It is a puzzle what international targets Indonesia would want to hit with a 300km missile. Perhaps one answer is: Australia has a wide variety of ballistic and cruise missile with a range greater than 300km.]
Anti-Drone & Air Defense: Received new domestic and foreign anti-drone mobile jammers ([domestically developed] Maung MV3 Mobile Jammer systems) and expanded ground-based air-defense radar systems. [1, 2]"
Japan is the only one of the 3 that has invaded China (invasion of Manchuria (1931) to most of China until 1945).
Hence the concentration on Japan in China's Global Times article below.
The good AI explains "China strongly opposes [SSN] programs pursued by Australia, South Korea, and Japan. [China views these programs] as a serious challenge to regional stability, a disruption of the non-proliferation framework, and a direct strategy by the US and its allies to contain China's growing naval power [major source]"
Article
(intelligence professionals should be aware that clicking Global Times links may trigger Chinese spyware intrusions)
[Photo via Global Times - with caption] "Demonstrators stage a rally before the Diet against the Japanese
government's nuclear policies in Tokyo, Japan, on November 21, 2025. Protesters
also call on the government to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear
Weapons. Photo: VCG." ---
"Why Takaichi’s remarks
about nuclear-powered submarines are so dangerous"
"With her parliamentary remarks, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has pried open a crack in the thickest seal guarding Japan's postwar taboos on military use of nuclear energy.
According to Japan's Kyodo News, Takaichi stated during a session of the House of Representatives Budget Committee that in response to the "increased military activity by its neighbors," the Japanese government will "seriously consider" the possibility of Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF) introducing nuclear-powered submarines. Sources reportedly indicate Tokyo intends to include this option when updating its key documents on defense and security later this year.
The phrase "seriously consider" does not indicate prudence, but rather serves as a prelude. While citing "limited intelligence-gathering and surveillance capabilities in the Pacific," Takaichi also singled out nuclear-powered submarine developments in Australia and South Korea - a rhetorical maneuver: She frames Japan as a "passive follower," portrays military expansion as a "defensive necessity," and casts taboo-breaking moves as a "regional trend." Her goal is to embed nuclear-powered submarines in this year's revised security and defense documents, turning a once-forbidden option into a "future initiative" in official policy texts. This is dangerous.
Successive Japanese cabinets have long barred the military use of nuclear energy under the Atomic Energy Basic Law, enacted in 1955, which stipulates the peaceful use of nuclear power. In 1965, the Japanese government issued an explicit interpretation prohibiting nuclear energy from being used as propulsion for SDF vessels - an interpretation that has remained in force to this day. "Now, Takaichi's remarks on considering the introduction of nuclear‑powered submarines mark a major conceptual breach of Japan's Atomic Energy Basic Law and the long‑standing Three Non‑Nuclear Principles it underpins," said Lü Yaodong, research fellow at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
He noted that this was not a spur-of-the-moment statement, but rather an intentional, aggressive step aligned with the revision of three security documents scheduled for this year, a move with significant timing implications. The proposal to introduce nuclear-powered submarines is intended to lay the groundwork for provisions in the revised security documents, push for the inclusion of nuclear-powered submarines in Japan's medium- and long-term defense plans, and pave the way for the further undermining of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles.
"Japan is using nuclear-powered submarines as a breakthrough point to challenge the nuclear taboo established after World War II; this is a very dangerous shift," Lü said.
In fact, elevating nuclear-powered submarines from a taboo topic to a top-tier policy agenda is a major step in Japan's years-long, incremental process of breaking through postwar military constraints.
Zhou Yongsheng, professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, said submarines are inherently offensive platforms for open-ocean operations; equipping them with nuclear propulsion is not merely a "conventional equipment upgrade," but a crucial step toward military nuclear capability.
Takaichi's decision to raise this issue in the legislative arena of the House of Representatives had a very clear purpose: to publicly build momentum, secure lawmakers' support, and pave the way for subsequent policy and legislative amendments, according to Zhou.
Zhou further pointed out that Japan's Three Non-Nuclear Principles prohibit the manufacture, possession and introduction of nuclear weapons. A nuclear submarine can be understood as "half a nuclear weapon": Although it is not a full-fledged nuclear bomb, the combination of nuclear propulsion and an offensive submarine platform will effectively introduce military nuclear propulsion capabilities into the SDF.
Even more serious is the chain reaction. "Once the Pandora's box of introducing nuclear-powered submarines is opened, it will set a strongly negative precedent and trigger a chain reaction of regional arms races. If this comes to pass, it will cast a shadow over the global nuclear non-proliferation regime," Zhou warned.
Today, politicians in Tokyo speak of "seriously considering" this matter as if it were no big deal, but history will not treat it lightly: When nuclear-powered submarines go from being a taboo to a legislative proposal, Japan is not merely revising an ordinary policy, but tearing off the seal on the very aspect of the postwar order that should never be touched."
Japan appears to be surrendering to Chinese warnings against Japan building nuclear powered submarines - or is that just Japanese propaganda?
Japan's government says its stepping back from plans to explicitly include the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines in its three core security documents by [2026's] end. Instead Japan's government says its considering a scaled-down commitment to launch related research.
"WASHINGTON - Republican and Democratic US senators called on President Donald Trump on Oct 11 to “reverse course” on his diesel supply deal with Russia, saying it runs counter to US law barring imports of energy until Russia ends its aggression against Ukraine.
“Congress explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s brutal war against Ukraine,” the seven senators - four of Trump’s fellow Republicans and three Democrats - said in a statement.
They also said that the [Trump] administration failed to consult with Congress or submit any explanation of its decision, something also required by law.
“The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians. The Administration must immediately reverse course,” the statement said.
It was only the latest bipartisan criticism of Trump’s deal, a shift from his party’s near-unanimous support for Trump’s foreign policy decision weeks before Nov 3 midterm elections that will determine whether his Republicans will retain their control of Congress.
It was issued by Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Curtis of Utah and Democrats Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Ron Wyden of Oregon.
Tillis had said earlier on Oct 11 that the diesel deal may be illegal and would put American lives at risk."
The end of the Life Of Type Extended ("LOTEd") Collins (in about, as you say, 2044) to actual Commissionings of SSN-AUKUS for Australia (in about 2054, if at all) presents an even a bleaker submarine capability gap.
With declining SSN availability for the USN I see no US policy window to export Virginias to Australia. Rather USN Virginias may each have about 15-20 Aus sailors/officers and about 4 US Virginias will rotate at 3 to 4 month intervals at Fleet Base West (FBW). Meanwhile UK PWR2 reactor trouble prone Astutes will conduct 2 week propaganda tours at FBW every 18 months on average.
The 10 year Australian (Aus) Submarine capability gap will need to be filled by a combination of: USN Virginias, French Suffren SSNs (on their New Caledonia/Fr Polynesia tours?), Aus UUVs, Aus surface warships, Aus AUVs, Aus-US satellites, air refueled RAAF F-35A long strike aircraft with standoff missiles, and I foresee "Gilmour Booster-Hypersonix warhead IRBMs" in DF-26 like long range anti-shipping and land attack roles.
"Indonesian government faces Kalimantan [aka Borneo, three quarters of which is in Indonesia] wildfires lawsuit as haze
blankets region"
"A group of civil society organisations in Indonesia's West Kalimantan province has filed a class action lawsuit against the national government over its handling of wildfires in the region.
Proceedings began yesterday in Pontianak, the capital of the region located on the island of Borneo.
According to the plaintiffs, the peatland fires and accompanying widespread haze are an almost annual occurrence and should have been anticipated.
Glorio Sanen, legal coordinator of the group Nafas Kalbar, which was formed to hold the government accountable, said the government's failure to act and negligence were responsible for the fires and its impact.
...Millions of people, including in neighbouring countries Singaporeand Malaysia, have been dealing with toxic haze caused by the forest fires that started in July [2026].
According to the official data, more than 200 fire spots are still burning, with the wet season in most parts of Indonesia not expected to arrive until November [2026].
...fires more easily spread across peatlands damaged and dried out as a result of practices such as monoculture planting of palm oil.
...Plantation owners and traditional farmers often start fires to clear land, according to the National Police Criminal Investigation Agency's special crimes unit.
Investigations into possible corporate involvement in lighting the fires is underway, with charges carrying possible prison sentences of up to 15 years.
Environmental groups said the conversion of peatlands into oil palm plantations in Kalimantan was one of the causes of wildfires.(Reuters: Willy Kurniawan via ABC) ---
..."If we're asking law enforcement authorities to enforce the law on forest and land fires in a transparent and fair manner, how could they object to that?"...MORE
Comment
It is possible that landowner corruption is hindering the high standard of Indonesian legal processes concerning pre-Palm Oil Plantation clearances that use fire.
For a country, like Japan, to join an alliance, like AUKUS, that handles high-end Top Secret material, a country needs a robust, integrated and coordinated security-intelligence structure. It must include strong counter-intelligence culture and liaison with intelligence allies. This is particularly against penetration of the Japanese Government and defence companies (like Mitsubishi and Kawasaki shipyards) by North Korea, Russian and of course PRC-Chinese agents and cyber-espionage.
This is why Japan is upgrading its security intelligence analysis and collection coordination.
Takaichi Sanae says establishing a Japanese spy agency is "a matter of the utmost urgency". (Reuters: Edward Grattan)
In short:
Japan's plans for a new espionage agency, prompted by increasing concerns about countries such as China, are gathering momentum.
Japan's prime minister says strengthening intelligence capabilities is "a matter of the utmost urgency".
What's next?
Japan "really wants" to join AUKUS, according to a leading Tokyo academic, who says Australia has been a "good" role model for many years.
Japan may soon have its own "CIA", as it works to establish its first centralised network of intelligence operations since World War II.
Plans for a new espionage agency have been prompted by increasing concerns about military build-up in countries such as China and threats of foreign interference.
Japan's current intelligence system is fragmented, with police, defence and foreign affairs departments all gathering information, but not always sharing it across agencies.
Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said strengthening intelligence capabilities was "a matter of the utmost urgency", given geopolitical shifts across the region.
"We are seeing the military build-up of China and North Korea, as well as strengthened cooperation between China and Russia, and between Russia and North Korea,"
she said.
Japan holds military drills every New Year at Narashino exercise field, east of Tokyo. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
Ms Takaichi also raised concerns about a rise in "the unauthorised leakage of cutting-edge technology involving foreign intelligence agents", cyber attacks on the public and private sectors, and disinformation campaigns "aimed at manipulating public opinion to favour a particular country".
She recently met with a newly formed expert panel tasked with helping create a long-term intelligence strategy.
Japan considers its own CIA
Osawa Jun, a panel member and senior research fellow at the Nakasone Peace Institute, told the ABC the old system had "failed to ensure that the nation as a whole carried out intelligence gathering and analysis in a properly coordinated manner".
Already this year, a new overarching security council headed by the prime minister has been established, along with a National Intelligence Bureau.
Japan's increased defence spending and its ties to the US have raised concerns in China. (Reuters: Kylie Cooper)
Next, the government is looking at setting up an independent foreign intelligence agency, which will be similar to America's CIA.
"If we are to possess intelligence capabilities truly on a par with those of the US or the [United Kingdom], it will be necessary to gather intelligence abroad," Mr Osawa said.
"Conceptually, this would be akin to the world of the CIA or Britain's 007."
Takaichi Sanae addresses the Self-Defense Forces Senior Commanders' Conference in Tokyo last month. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
The aim is to establish a foreign intelligence agency by early 2028, according to a policy document prepared by the country's ruling party, and for the agency to "maximise the effective use of limited human resources and be operational immediately after establishment".
Personnel will not be the only issue, with legal and structural changes also needed to facilitate the intelligence work and better protect the country against foreign espionage, to which it is currently vulnerable.
"There are still significant challenges ahead,"
Mr Osawa said.
"[Those include] enacting laws to enable concrete intelligence-gathering and countermeasures, establishing the necessary government agencies, and training personnel capable of carrying out these tasks."
Ensuring public support and establishing democratic oversight are also a focus for the independent panel.
Japan participated in the Rim of the Pacific military exercises in Hawaii in 2024. (Reuters: Marco Garcia)
But one of Japan's pre-eminent former national security chiefs, Kitamura Shigeru, said the country did "not have to start from zero" and should build on its existing international counterterrorism capabilities.
Mr Kitamura said Japan needed to ensure it limited its focus to gathering information and did not engage in political manipulation or subversion overseas.
"In constructing a new intelligence architecture, we should not simply import every function of intelligence services elsewhere,"
he said.
While pushing for controls, he described secret intelligence gathering as an "indispensable function" of a modern country.
"We cannot depend entirely upon information supplied by others, however close our allies and partners may be," he said.
Australia has been a 'good model'
Japan has examined intelligence systems and foreign interference laws in countries including the US, the UK, France, and Australia.
Tomohiko Satake, from the Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, said Australia had been a "good model for Japan for many years".
"In terms of the scale of the country, we can't be America, of course, we can't be maybe the UK, but we could be Australia, in terms of our intelligence ability," he said.
"I think there are many things Australia can cooperate with Japan on in terms of intelligence capabilities and, most importantly, how to establish that intelligence community itself."
Increased intelligence sharing with Australia predicted
The changes are expected to increase Japan's intelligence sharing and security relationships with its partners in the West.
Ghost Robotics Vision 60 robotic dogs take part in a New Year Japanese military drill. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)
During a visit to Australia in May, Ms Takaichi and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese issued a joint statement on enhanced defence and security cooperation, which included "increased information and intelligence cooperation".
Professor Satake said Japan "really wants" to join AUKUS, a trilateral military technology partnership between Australia, the UK, and the United States.
Australia is also seen as "gateway for Japan to be closer to Five Eyes", a powerful intelligence-sharing alliance made up of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US.
Takaichi Sanae and Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi are forging ahead with significant increases to defence spending. (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Pool)
Jun Osawa said while joining Five Eyes would be difficult for Japan, he did think it could "become a partner close to the Five Eyes, drawing on Japan's unique intelligence".
"In particular, when it comes to analysis regarding China, there are quite a few areas where Japan is superior," he said.
"I believe it is important to build a relationship where we can properly exchange that sort of information."
What does China think?
Beijing has criticised what it describes as Japan's "remilitarisation". (Getty Images: Manuel Orbegozo/Bloomberg )
China has criticised Japan's intelligence reforms, describing them as "another negative move in its domestic and external security policies".
Relations between the countries have been at a historic low since Ms Takaichi said an attack on Taiwan could potentially trigger a military response from Japan. Beijing has also been outspoken about what it calls Japan's "remilitarisation".
"Japan's intelligence agencies historically paved the way for its full-scale pursuit of militarism and the launch of wars of aggression," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said after the establishment of Japan's new National Intelligence Bureau.
She accused Japan of "threatening regional peace and stability and raising widespread concerns among the international community"."
