China Could Catch Up With USN SSN Numbers By the Late 2030s

"US intelligence officials AI report that China is shifting its new submarine construction toward an all-nuclear model, though a complete transition of its existing operational fleet will take many years. [1, 2]

The Strategic Shift

New Construction: U.S. Navy intelligence chief Rear Admiral Mike Brookes stated in March 2026 testimony that China's People's Liberation Army Navy is moving away from historical diesel-electric boat building in favour of all-nuclear construction. [1, 2]
Current Fleet Balance: China operates more than 60 total submarines. Most are conventional diesel-electric vessels, while at least 12 to 14 are nuclear-powered (including attack and ballistic missile types). [1, 2, 3, 4]
Future Projections: By 2035, China is projected to field over 40 nuclear-powered submarines as part of an expanded fleet of roughly 80 total boats. [1]

Production Capacity

Shipyard Expansion: Upgrades at facilities like the Bohai Shipyard in Huludao and activity at Jiangnan [Shipyard at Changxing Island, Bohai Sea] give China the capacity to build multiple nuclear attack submarines simultaneously. [1, 2]
New Classes: Advanced nuclear designs, such as the Type 095 attack submarine and Type 096 strategic missile submarine, are slated to enter service before 2030. [1, 2]

Why China Wants Nuclear Boats

Longer Range: Nuclear submarines can stay submerged for months at a time.
Greater Stealth: They can travel faster and operate much farther from Chinese shores without needing to surface, posing a larger challenge to U.S. and allied naval operations in the Pacific. [1, 2, 3]

Read a detailed analysis on this strategic transition in The Japan Times. [1]"

The USN has 47 active attack submarines (SSNs) (consisting of 18 Los Angeles, 26 Virginias and 3 Seawolfs) with about 14 SSNs in long term maintenance. China could rapidly catch up by the late 2030s to early 2040s if it built 4 x Type 095s/year while maintaining low Type 096 SSBN and low extra large XLUUV production.
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Pete Comment

What must be taken into account is the average rate of Los Angeles-class submarine retirements, which is 2.8 per year, since retirements began in 2011. So the 18 Los Angeles will all be retired in 6 years, ie by 2033.

Meanwhile Virginia Block V replacement rates will be only 0.8 per year maximum - as larger Block Vs take more production effort than smaller Blocks I to IV. 

Also full rate Columbia-class SSBN production, 1 per year through to 2042, will be an additional Virginia production limiter.

In the unlikely circumstance that the US will sell 3 x Block IV Virginias to Australia under AUKUS this would shorten the USN's lead vs China.