Heightened US ITAR Regs Blocking AUKUS: Also SK, NK, Japan, Canadian & Singaporean nuclear issues

In response to Shawn C’s comment of March 10, 2025, I (Pete) say:

Very true and disturbing about the possibility the US may retrospectively heighten ITAR regulations to block Australian access to US and US via UK AUKUS technology. That may see the US reneging on AUKUS Pillar One (Virginia SSNs) and even Pillar Two "AI, cybersecurity and Quantum computing" and also GHOST SHARK XLUUVs". 

Also the US could force the UK to block Australian access to US content/inventions the US passed to the UK eg. in UK reactors for SSN-AUKUS submarines intended for Australian in the late 2030s to 2050s.

I've been looking at the possibility of South Korea (SK) developing a nuclear powered submarine (variously called KSS-N, KSSN and KSSX-N) in several articles since 2012. See https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=kss-n  which yields:

"South Korean...Nuclear KSSX-N Option"
of Feb 22, 2012 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2009/09/south-korea-has-bought-six-more-u-214.html

and

"South Korean Submarines, 3,000+ ton KSS-III, Nuclear Potential"
of 16 April 2015 at
https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/04/south-korean-submarines-3000-ton-kss.html

What I suspect is currently an NK “nuclear submarine” mock-up or animation at http://www.hisutton.com/North-Korea-Nuclear-Submarine-OSINT.html  may partly be NK responding one better to South Kora’s https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/korean-smr-powered-container-ship-design-revealed

The US has always actively prevented Canada from obtaining SSNs – see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada-class_submarine#American_opposition . This is due to US-Canadian national competition regarding Arctic sea lanes and resources and the US desire to retain its nuclear submarine ownership monopoly in “America’s Western Hemisphere”. Warming of arctic waters, freeing up shipping and submarine access, will only increase US determination to be the SSN monopolist of the Western Hemisphere.

Delays in SK being a potential SSN supplier to Australia includes the 20-40 years SK might take to produce a stealthy SSN design. It has taken the super or great nuclear powers decades to develop quiet SSNs.

Also SK (if unprotected by the unreliable US) is extremely vulnerable to land invasion or "nuking" by neighboring NK, China or Russia. Unlike France, SK has no nuclear deterrent to defend its future SSN shipyard and no current second generation Suffren class SSN already in the water.

Without the US protecting SK, SK's nuclear armed neighbours might take extreme steps to stop SK developing nuclear weapons, SSBNs or SSNs. The same goes for Japan. Japan modifying its 1970s-90s Mutsu nuclear ship reactor into  a submarine reactor https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=mutsu might be violently stopped by Japan’s authoritarian neighbours.

Interesting about Singapore's SMR studies. https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/case-made-for-smrs-to-be-built-underground-to-protect-from-military-and-natural-threats-25-11-2024/ of Nov 12, 2024:

“Small modular reactors (SMRs) should be built underground, including in city centres, to protect them from military attacks, seismic activity and other natural hazards, according to a new academic study. The recommendations come from a paper written by Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) senior fellow Alvin Chew. Academy of Engineering Singapore fellow and International Society for Rock Mechanics and Engineering (ISRM) fellow Zhou Yingxin co-authored the paper.”