Australian Ministerial Reshuffle: Subs, Defence, Women

On March 29, 2021 Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison felt compelled to reshuffle his Ministry. 

Over the last month the Morrison Liberal-National Coalition government has declined from being mainly seen as an effective coordinator and financial responder to the Covid Crisis. Now it is seen as a symptom of alleged "rape" and sundry sexual deviancy by senior government males imposing themselves on junior females at Federal and State political levels.

Morrison was forced to act yesterday. His method is increasing the number of women in the Ministry. You will see many women in the official March 29, 2021 Ministry List.

Aside from humanitarianism Morrison cares because a Federal Election must be held any Saturday from "Saturday 7 August 2021" up until "Saturday 21 May 2022" inclusive. There being no fixed (eg. 4 year) Parliamentary terms in Australia's Federal level system. In Australia the optimal time for the Government to hold an election is seen as the Southern Hemisphere Spring (September - November) when people's happiness at  improvements in the weather is assumed to carry over to voting for the incumbent government. 

Significantly Morrison is clinging to Government by only a one-seat majority in the Federal House of Representatives. The next Federal Election will therefore be a close run, unpredictable, thing. The Labor Opposition (see red line on graph) is slightly ahead of the Morrison Coalition Government on a "two-party-preferred" basis.

So Morrison's reshuffle yesterday is aimed at resolving the "women problem" in likely preparation for an Australian Spring Election. Also by Spring enough Australians will have been Covid Vaccinated to make them feel better about their health, life and hence the incumbent Morrison Government.  

The main impact of this reshuffle on Australian defence matters can potentially come from the change in Defence Minister:

-  from Senator (for Western Australia) Linda Reynolds, suspected of effectively minimising an alleged rape of a staffer. Reynolds has spent 30 years, as part-time military, thus knowing military technology and policies well, though being a low profile Cabinet Minister.

-  to Peter Dutton MP as Defence Minister. His main defence related experience is Minister for Immigration and Border Protection. That portfolio involves much liaison with Defence, surveillance aircraft and patrol boats, with armed boarding parties, boarding refugee/people and drug smuggling boats. Dutton was not moved into a central direct interface with voters ministry because he has been and still is Morrison's main rival for Liberal Party Leader, hence the Prime Minister position. Dutton represents the Queensland seat/electorate of Dickson which may attract more defence business.

Dutton is unlikely to want to change the Government's ongoing policy of sticking with Naval Group (main contractor) and Lockheed Martin (combat system integrator) for Australia's Future Attack-class submarine program. As Dutton does not come from Reynolds' state of Western Australia Reynolds scheme to divert more current Collin's class submarine maintenance work to Western Australia may recede as a plan.

However, Melissa Price MP for Western Australia, remains the more junior Minister for Defence Industry.   

The highly ambitious, Andrew Hastie MP, remains Assistant Minister for Defence. He spent 14 years as a soldier and was Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on Intelligence and Security for just over 3 years, So Hastie has a good grounding to move into more senior defence ministerial grades. 

Whether the reshuffle has cured Morrison's "women problem" remains to be seen. It is unlikely that Morrison, or his rival, Dutton will significantly alter Australian defence/submarine projects and policies. Many workers/voters/businesses/politicians need to feel confident that federal money for defence funding in their area/electorates will be ongoing. There is especially with an Election approaching (September 2021 to May 2022).

Pete