Too Few Taiwanese Subs, TSS-3s Probably Too Late.

This article pre-announces the launch of Taiwan's first domestically built submarine, now known as the Hai Kun-class [TSS-3s] or ("Narwhal" a whale with a sharp tusk, in English) was launched at CSBC Corporation's Kaohsiung shipyard on Sept 28, 2023. First of class, Hai Kun, will undergo harbor acceptance trails from Oct 1, 2023. It might be delivered to the Taiwanese Navy before the end of 2024. A second IDS is expected to be delivered by 2027.

Meanwhile Taiwan’s 2 Dutch built Hai Lung-class [TSS-2] subs, launched in the1986, are 37 years old. Too old, with much obsolete equipment and probably noisy, to be considered fully operational. Taiwan’s 2 World War Two US built Hai Shih-class [TSS-1] sub’s are 79-80 years old, making them accidents waiting to happen, hence very scrap worthy. 

The PRC’s government instructed Global Times reported, Sept 25, along the lines – Taiwan is dreaming if it thinks its 2 modern [TSS-3] submarine force, by 2027, will make much difference. In addition to many more PRC subs the PRC has many other ASW platforms, including aircraft and surface ships. 

Pete Comment

Taiwan’s two TSS-3s by 2027 are probably Japanese designed (with a resemblance to Japan's Soryu or Taigei classes and Taiwan's TSS-2s) and joint Taiwan-Japanese built. As I commented on Sept 29, 2023, all subs are a blend of derived shapes and contents, so the TSS-3s combine ancestor designs, including:

-  Japan 1967 Uzushio-class design which adopted the US 1956 Barbel-class teardrop shape, for more rapid and efficient/longer range fully submerged travel. After the Uzushios Japan gradually made their submarine classes more a bit cigar shaped.

-  Also the Barbel teardrop design came via the Dutch built TSS-2 design. 

As both Japan and Taiwan have efficient shipbuilding industries the 2 TSS-3s will have been built very quickly. But if the PRC invades by the oft described target year of 2027 Taiwan's two modern TSS-3s subs and (by then) two 40 year old TSS-2s will be quickly destroyed. A larger force of US SSNs (Trump permitting) and Japanese SSKs will be very much needed to aid Taiwan. 

I assume the PRC has added to its numerous mobile ASW resources with an intense network of fixed undersea sensors and smart mines programmed to detect and destroy Western (including Taiwanese) subs and ships.

In support of my TSS-3s are Japanese designed theory: Compare model (photo above from many outlets) of a TSS-3 with the similar rather long fin/sail in a similar position also with X-cross rudders of Japan's Soryu and Taigei classes. JS Taigei is below (Photo courtesy Seaforces online).