It seems China and India are jockeying for economic and political position in the strategically important Maldives islands. The Maldives is a Muslim nation of around 430,000 people sitting in the Arabian Sea but just to the south of regional power India (map above). The Maldives is suffering a leadership and judicial crisis which began this month. Some in the Maldives are seeking Indian military peace-keeping while others are mindful that the Maldives is heavily financial indebted to China. Also China is the largest source of blameless tourist traffic to the Maldives.
Over the last week many of the Western press believe or disbelieve that China despatched a mixed fleet of around 10 ships (including destroyers, frigates, supply and a landing ship) to put some gunboat diplomacy pressure on the Maldives and India.
A Western website reported that Chinese News outlets appeared to concoct the story "Last week, the state-aligned paper Global Times warned that “If India one-sidedly sends troops to the Maldives, China will take action to stop New Delhi." Sina.com.cn reported [on February 17, 2018] that there are presently 11 PLA(N) surface warships in the Indian Ocean".
The Indian Press has covered the Maldives Crisis more closely, soberly, with miniscule sabre-rattling.
On February 22, 2018, Prabhash K Dutta reported from New Delhi along the lines:
In January 2018 before the
Maldives crisis started the Chinese Navy began an exercise in the South China Sea..."The Chinese naval fleet proceeded
towards South Pacific Ocean and touched Australian waters before turning back.
Reports suggest that on their backward journey, the Chinese naval fleet had to
pass through the Indian Ocean for some distance....no Chinese warship were
deployed close to the Maldives....A Chinese destroyer and a frigate had
crossed into the Eastern Indian Ocean through the Sunda Strait and exited the
Indian Ocean through the Lombok Strait
[the straits are on each side of the most important Indonesian island of Java with Jakarta the capital. See map below]
while heading towards the South China
Sea. The two sea passages are located on the margins of Indian Ocean near
Indonesia, and some 2,500 nautical miles or over 4,600 kilometres from
Maldives."
COMMENT
So the sailors of China are, as always, chock full of innocence and international goodwill despite what Chinese news-sites concoct. Confused?
It is but a slur that "The cost of Chinese [financial assistance to the Maldives] may prove to be steep. Like Sri Lanka and Pakistan, the Maldives is deeply indebted to China, and it may eventually come under pressure from Beijing to give up large assets - like land or port facilities - in return for debt forgiveness."
The Chinese destroyer and a frigate following the dotted line crossing into the Eastern Indian Ocean through the Sunda Strait then east exiting the Indian Ocean through the Lombok Strait. These straits are on each side of the most important Indonesian island of Java with Jakarta the capital. The Chinese were safely some 2,500 nautical miles or over 4,600 kms from the Maldives.
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Any Chinese submarine movements near the Maldives remain unknown!
Pete
4 comments:
No intelligence service is going to admit or comment on whether a Chinese sub was in those waters. It would be giving up a unknown source and China would investigate who, what, where and how many. A ruse by any other name, the mouse did not go after the cheese .
As China gains power, its arms keep stretching further and further. It is unfortunate that geopolitics now hits several pieces of paradise on earth.
Things are not standing still either in Doklam where China has reinforced its defensive lines and deployed a mechanized brigade (regardless of the denials by some Indian officials). The other piece of paradise that is Bhutan is equally feeling the Chinese heat. Add in Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan, I am sure India must feel it is being encircled.
Long tern though, the Maldives live on borrowed time. Given that Antarctica is melting at alarming rates, all of its peoples will become in a few decades climate refugees.
KQN
So true KQN.
And the need for the Chinese governing regime to grow its economy to justify continuing communist political control over on its population has run into the natural barrier of too much pollution.
That means China needs to spread its population out to new territory. Maybe by means of:
A. spreading North into largely empty Russian Eastern Siberia or South into Southeast Asia (lets not mention Australia...)
OR
B. reclaiming land, typified by the expanded South China Sea sand islands
will become essential for China.
Regards
Pete
One belt one road is first and foremost a job program for Chinese workers, but it will be nations hosting those mega projects that will be footing later the bills including the massive debt to be paid with 99 year land leases.
I agree that Siberia must be looking quite tempting and this is why some Iskanders are in fact aimed south. Chinese are migrating into Thailand (if you ever visit some of the frontier cities) or Cambodia (to build that mega deep water port). The jury is out as to how much the locals are benefiting. After all, the entire Northern China is running dry (even before global warming) and that will be a dark future for hundreds of millions of Chinese. Diverting water from the Himalayas will unlikely be a workable long term solution since glaciers there are also disappearing.
KQN
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