Israel's suspected Popeye Turbo nuclear tipped Submarine Lauched Cruise Missile (SLCM) is feeling its age and interceptability. The following details its limitations along with broader comments on Israel's missile landscape.
Israel has the most technologically advanced missile arsenal in the Middle East. Israel has a large domestic arms industrial base and is/has been involved in many foreign joint ventures. This is particularly with the US, India (likely for Popeye Turbo testing in 2002 and definitely in developing the Barak 1 SAM and Barak 8 SAM) and decades ago France, to develop world class missile systems.
Israel domestically produces numerous UAVs, cruise, ballistic and now hypersonic missiles informed by the performance of
missiles and UAVs in the Russia-Ukraine War. Russian cruise and ballistic
missiles are proving more easily shot down than hypersonic missiles.
Israel might be assuming that its subsonic or supersonic Popeye Turbo SLCMs may well be shot down by Israel’s Muslim neighbors (with Iran being the top target). This is especially if the Popeye Turbo’s range hasn’t improved beyond 1,500km with a 200kg warhead of 200 kiloton yield [with likely a boosted weapon]. 1,800km with a 100kg warhead might be more practical.
A range of 1,800km still means Israel’s Dolphin 1 and 2 class submarines are limited to a
relatively small predictable launch area west of their Haifa Naval Base if
their target is Tehran. The range limitations of the Popeye Turbos would make for fairly direct route, improving the chances that Iran’s S-300 SAMs or, in future, S-400 SAMs might intercept them.
Modern Turkish,
Egyptian and Russian submarines might also make life difficult for Israeli Dolphins that occupy predictable launch areas.
Alternate launch
areas in the:
- Red Sea involve
the need for Dolphin SSBs to surface (or be easily detected) travelling through the Suez Canal, or
- Arabian Sea involve Dolphin SSBs covering a huge multiple-refuel distance around the southern tip of Africa.
Hence Israel needs a longer range and preferably faster submarine launched missile that doesn't have the predictable trajectory of a ballistic missile. Israel may be developing a, what I call, Submarine Launched Hypersonic Missile (with a brand new acronym "SLHM"). A faster missile, with a heavier warhead travelling in dense atmosphere, while fighting gravity, will almost inevitably be heavier and taller than the Popeye Turbo.
This may be a variant of the Arrow family of long range anti-ballistic hypersonic missiles. The constantly improving Arrow Program has been an Israeli-US joint venture since 1986. It is considered one of the most advanced missile defense programs currently in existence [14][15] A long range missile built for defensive purposes can always be of offensive value.
More on Monday on the Arrow 3 and 4.
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