May 31, 2022

Labor Majority & Marles MinDef Good for Aus SSN

On May 31, 2022 Anonymous commented:

Good to see Australia’s DoD is progressing [nuclear safeguards] issues. ANSTO and ARPANSA are definite assets to the RAN SSN project.

Labor have a majority government now and announced their cabinet today.

Richard Marles was appointed Deputy PM and Defence Minister. Marles is leader of the dominant Labor Right faction and has a long term interest in defence. 

[See Marles' website for his current photo.]

This is the best possible outcome for Defence. Marles has factional power, is from the right (so no ideological problem with SSNs) and is Deputy PM to boot, so will have clout in cabinet to push things through. Frankly this is a relief.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete,

U.S. And South Korean Cooperation On Nuclear Technology Positive Sign For K-SSN

"U.S. President Joseph Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced that the two countries will cooperate on developing a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) during the former’s state visit to South Korea on May 21, 2022."

"The possibility of South Korea developing nuclear submarines is more than just speculation. According to a source familiar with the situation who wished to remain anonymous, a “technical briefing” regarding the country’s potential acquisition of nuclear submarines recently took place. The meeting is said to have been attended by officials from South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration, the Republic of Korea Navy, Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, and a major foreign company with expertise in nuclear submarines. Naval News reached out to the Ministry of National Defense (MND) for comment."

/Kjell

Pete said...

Thanks /Kjell

Re once AUKUS agreed the US could not stop South Korea obtaining nuclear subs.

I noted in

- 2019 that in 2017 the US (under Trump) rejected South Korea's Presidential request to build nuke sub's or buy them from the US https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2019/10/south-korea-seeks-submarine-reactors.html

- and in Sept 2021 I reasoned that after AUKUS the US could not continue to reject South Korea obtaining nuke subs https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/09/south-korea-asked-trump-for-us-nuke-sub.html

So thanks for https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/u-s-and-south-korean-cooperation-on-nuclear-technology-positive-sign-for-k-ssn/ it is no surprise the US is sending positive signals to South Korea now.

Regards Pete

Anonymous said...

AUKUS to JAUKUSK ?

Hello Pete

How long until the Bidden administration and the other governments concerned about growing strategic uncertainty in the western Pacific begin policy work to add the letters 'J' and 'K' to AUKUS (i.e. Japan, Australia, UK, US and Korea) ?

If Sweden and Finland would rather embrace NATO than risk the threats of a large, expansionary, nuclear-fanged neighbour alone . . . the 'J' and the 'K' in 'JAUKUSK' may have much the same ideas.

With China and Russia each having P5 veto power over UN security council decisions, the blue helmets may not be able to do anything to protect South Korea or Japan from possible future aggression. Time for a new treaty ?

AND ON A RELATED MATTER :

There were some interesting threads on some serious OS discussion sites, last year, talking about South Korean interest in obtaining the same kind of nuclear submarine propulsion technology that France has provided to Brazil and (potentially future) like-minded security partners.

The mooted conversation between France and South Korea, in particular, seems now to have born some strange fruit, in the form of high level talks between SK and the US on the cooperative development of a new SMR.

That SMR program is very likely focused on the much discussed South Korean 4,000 ton KSS-III platform. The early KSS-III boats for the South Korean Navy use 'conventional AIP', the next KSS-III blocks are to adopt Lithium Ion Batteries (LIB) and later blocks are (so says the 'twitterverse') meant to have nuclear propulsion.

What is the French word for gazumped ? Sacre Bleu ! We are withdrawing our ambassadeur from South Korea as well this time ! No more baguettes for you.

Let's refer to the mooted nuclear version of the KSS-III as the 'KSN-III' and guess that its propulsion system is an SMR using TRISO fuel. TRISO may suit 'J' and 'K' since are each reluctant for any neighbour of theirs having HEU (weapons grade) material for whatever purpose.

The KSN-III (or at least the front half of the boat) is already at sea and in production. The time and money to design and build, say, a UKSN-III AU is therefore likely to be substantially less than, say, an SSN(R) or SSN(X) alternative. Existing South Korean boats may have even been designed so as to facilitate a change to nuclear propulsion at a mid-life refit.

Something Minister Marles might want a briefing on is the possibility of the UK and SK agreeing that the KSN-III and SSN(R) should adopt a common hull and powerplant. Said plant would be built and tested in cooperation with a well known US nuclear submarine propulsion firm, coincidentally working with US National laboratories and NASA on heat pipe reactors for the past ten years and which released its NRC compliance proposal late last month.

To settle everybody's political nerves, the powerplant could be licensed to Rolls Royce as the technology is not what the US Navy needs for its Columbia and SSN(X) boats and likely has no US government market (except the USAF ?).

Saving money on SSNs could allow SK to built more and bigger aircraft carriers. The UK Treasury probably likes the idea of halving the cost of developing a new SSN design from scratch.

Unlike SK (and Japan) the UK could opt for HEU fuel, as TRISO is described in some (mind numbingly dry) sources as a 'low density fuel' is apparently optimized for anti-proliferation (in land based civil and military electricity generation) rather than being a 'high density' fuel better optimized for naval propulsion purposes.

BUREAUCRATUS LEX 3 JUNE 2022

Pete said...

Hi BUREAUCRATUS LEX 3 JUNE 2022

Japan and South Korean (SK) squabble between themselves at the best of times. I don't think that would be welcome in AUKUS, which is a broad sensitive weapons deal between the 3 more conservative Five Eye group members.

Also SK fears China and NK for many nuclear, conventional weapon and close landmass proximity reasons.

This means SK is most probably heavily penetrated by Chinese and NK intelligence, making AUKUS wary of sending its most sensitive nuclear submarine and many other sensitive tech secrets to SK.

Japan and SK in the QUAD may be more viable.

++++++++++++

I would say SK has been quietly working on nuclear sub tech for about 2 decades. SK has been waiting for political/legal rather than technical reasons.

Political/legal being mainly:
1. US permission to raise this tech above the proliferation political bar and
2. asking the US to reassure Japan that a SK nuke sub would not be an anti-Japan weapon.

I raised the issue of SK being given access to the 2nd or 3rd best reactor type, that is K15 submarine reactor tech from France, in:

2021 https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/12/s-korean-built-nuke-sub-reactor-likely.html

2020 https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/10/leu-more-acceptable-for-south-korean.html and

2019 https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2019/10/south-korea-looking-at-frances.html

+++++++++++++

and in 2015
I raised the possibility of a KSS-III being upgraded to a nuclear sub https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/04/south-korean-submarines-3000-ton-kss.html

Cheers Pete