Thanks to /Kjell, who on May 1, 2022 pointed out, that France’s Naval Group has removed itself from India's Project 75I for 6 future SSKs with already “sea proven” AIP.
France, Russia and Spain simply lack the sea proven 2nd or 3rd generation AIP that India requires. Germany's TKMS (which does have sea proven AIP) withdrew from the competition in 2021 citing concerns over financial liability and insufficient program funding, it said it would return if the tender terms were revised. Earlier, in 2019, Sweden's SAAB, with long proven AIP, also withdrew over financial liability requirements set by India.
Sources include:
https://twitter.com/livefist/status/1520272506715660288?cxt=HHwWgICjycjyi5kqAAAA
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/submarine-tech-that-india-wants-aip-technology-7900043/
and especially https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project-75_(India)_submarine#Foreign_contenders
The problems with Project 75I has been covered
frequently by Submarine Matters including on February 17, 2022. (see "India's 75I Aim to Get Submarine AIP remains in Limbo").
South Korea’s DSME, with its working fuel cell AIP,
appears to be the only contender left. Whether TKMS might block DSME from providing originally German invented AIP, remains to be seen. DSME is reportedly offering the 3,000
tonne variant of the KSS-III aka
DSME-3000. As well as AIP the KSS-III Batch I or II would bring an additional VLS
capability for firing 6 to 10 ballistic missiles.
If DSME is the only contender left then sales
pricing may be an obvious problem to haggle over for some years yet.
Alternatively, might India change the rules, at this late stage, to encourage SAAB and TKMS to return?
11 comments:
I've repeated some comments on this 75I matter kindly made by GhalibKabir within longer comment https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/04/china-messaging-to-submarine-matters.html?showComment=1651656063268#c750893221778783291
"TKMS is unlikely to be back for the 75I SSK deal, I don't how they will handle the 'single vendor' situation with Daewoo for the KSS-III SSK, a [Government to Government] G2G deal with SK could be one way out as the KSS-III has specs that the IN clearly is looking for in the 75I, namely, working AIP and VLS cells. One hopes Modi spoke about that to German Chancellor Scholz to ensure no IP objections from TKMS to Daewoo.
Where do we stop then? It is so disappointing."
What if the joint venture was established by two business partners, TkMS & Daewoo? In the specific project...
With the kind of requirements they were pushing for (operational fuel-cell AIP, Lithium ion batteries etc.) this was bound to happen. I can only hope that this will result in the procurement program proceeding along the lines I talked about previously (link below) as the next course of action.
https://draft.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=19245896&postID=7266459252827536326
i.e. Just build more Scorpenes, with or without AIP, and call it a day until the SSNs come.
Hi Oleg 7700,
This is a good brief read on the 75I project. Besides a working AIP, The basic unsaid roadblock is simple - the degree of ToT expected by India vs its bargaining power to get the same.
https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/project-75-i-hits-a-huge-roadblock-one-major-contender-pulls-out-know-more/2313976/
1. Naval Group, Rubin - Both are out without a working 'proven' AIP
2. Navantia - S-80 construction issue and larger strategic tie-up rationale apparently not rated highly in the Indian establishment despite Type-214 style armaments and an bioethanol based working AIP..i also heard some rumored objections to combat suite abilities too...
3. TKMS - Thyssen Krupp is very unhappy about the extent of ToT demanded under L1 or lowest price bid conditions along with lifelong liability guarantee for Type-214/218s derivatives built by Indian shipyards like L&T. For a financially stressed TKMS, such demands are akin to a double whammy and the German government also refused to play along, me thinks.
This leaves Daewoo DSME that can technically provide a VLS module for cruise missiles, install Siemens PEMFC AIP meeting the Navy's two biggest demands. However, under G2G route, the thorny issues on ToT remain besides the costing. ToT is complicated as DSME will need TKMS to sign off on sensitive tech transfer...and that is unlikely to come forth given German defense ministry refusal to play along.
While we should never say no...as things stand today, TKMS-DSME-L&T/Mazgaon Shipyard alliance seems significantly unlikely. However, if only one vendor remains then the way out is pretty much limited to a G2G agreement on national interest grounds...a very sordid state of affairs considering Indian Navy needs a SSK production line that atleast rolls out one sub every 18 months for the next 10-15 years.
Pete
There was the Defence ministers debate at the national press club today. Both Labor and zliberal committed to SSNs being built in Adelaide ASAP. Dutton hinted it could happen faster with reactors built overseas. Suggestions of an interim boat were sensibly dismissed.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-05/defence-debate-dutton-oconnor-dominated-by-china/101040558
Hi GhalibKabir! In spite of the exile the money doesn't seem to be a big problem to the TkMS. To date, contracts for 9 submarines (6 typе 212CD (Germ./Norg.) аnd 3 type Dakar (Israel) аnd additional for Singapore, perhaps the Netherlands, frigates for Egypt, Brazil, great interest in the Meko300(!), new generation AIP-system, Li-ion for submarines, etc... They're okay. "Thyssen Krupp is very unhappy about the extent of ToT"- well, аll I know for sure from my German colleague in Kiel. Regards...
Hi All, an interesting discussion.
If Daewoo aka DSME remains in 75I it will still object to:
- 75I's unlimited liability rules, and
- Indian attempts to haggle down a low price. The development costs are high for a radically new SSK ie. the KSS-III, with its VLS silos and Lithium-ion Batteries (if included). So DSME won't be happy with India offering a low price.
I assume DSME will have to pay Germany a substantial licence fee to export package German invented fuel cell AIP in KSS-IIIs (or even KSS-IIs) sold to India.
The risk of India re-Transfering AIP Technology to India's closest arms supplier, Russia, will be a particular sticking point (maybe out to 10 years) given Russia's invasion of Ukraine pariah status.
South Korea, Germany and NATO generally would be unhappy with Russian Lada SSKs having capability enhancements with fuel cell AIP. Also Russia might finally be in a position to export market Amur SSKs with German fuel cell AIP in competition to Germany and South Korea.
So maybe building 6 more Scorpene may make sense. It certainly does for a quicker program, spare parts, common weapons and other economies of scale within the Indian Navy that already has Scorpenes. DRDO AIP could eventually be retrofitted into the 6 Kalvari Scorpenes and into 6 future 75I Scorpenes. Naval Group may also technically benefit from the activity integrating DRDO AIP.
I think that's very sensible (Scorpene AIP with CMH) By the way, in the new AIP (TkMS) based on the advanced methanol reforming process, which allows the hydrogen needed to feed the fuel cell to be produced on board (not Cylindrical Metal Hydride Tanks) and "that's not for sale"- critical technology. Нave a great weekend...
Thanks Oleg [May 6, 2022, 5:09:00 PM]
A timely reminder. Germany/TKMS continues to lead the way in AIP.
This may free up "old fashioned" Metal Hydride, fuel cell AIP to become a much more common item on SSKs.
Have a great weekend to.
Pete
Hi Pete,
I don't know, why you keep saying that, but India never violated any IP terms. Even to the extent that the whole Super Sukhoi program gets delayed because of this, while India quite easily India can violate such IP terms.
But if you have such instances and cases, please share them with us.
On P-75I, it always was unrealistic, it's good that it gets canceled, and should buy like the whole IP of Scorpene, and produce 18 more with DRDO AIP.
Why ask for VLS, when you have SSGN, because right now it is with SFC, Indian Navy should have there own? Sometimes Indian Navy demands are so unrealistic.
@Oleg ... DRDO AIP is all about producing hydrogen in situ, and actually has no hydrogen storage plant. Here
https://delhidefencereview.com/2017/10/07/indian-navy-looks-forward-to-drdos-air-independent-propulsion-system-for-submarines/
You find no hydrogen tanks in it.
Hi Oleg7700,
Many regular high quality things 'are also not for sale' from European nations, not only critical technology (plus the inability in the IN to fix specifications). That said,
1. My reference point for TKMS (and Navantia too for S-80) financial issues are a bit old, 2017-18 types when discussions were underway. I concede recently TKMS seems to be profitable at the EBIT level
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/thyssenkrupp-might-shed-naval-business#:~:text=TKMS%20builds%20submarines%2C%20surface%20ships,the%20German%20and%20Israeli%20navies.
2. Building 6 more Scorpenes would be the neatest solution logically and logistically. With the DRDO AIP passing numerous tests, they could have opted for that or for the FC-2G by Naval Group as it seems to be having a decent chance to succeed.
3. The supply chain is already existing in India and this could help give economies of scale benefits.
The problem with the extra Scorpenes is the Navy needs to fix the following
A. Decide between DM2A4 or F21 and order the torpedoes soon (for 12 Scorpenes and 2-4 Type-209s ensuring 100-150 pieces negotiated at a good price)
B. Decide on finding a way to fire the Nirbhay cruise missile from Scorpene tubes (the SM-39 is too stubby in terms of range to be useful) - Naval group needs to help India integrate it with SUBTICS suite
and
C. See if it will be worth the cost and effort to install plugs for 8-10 cell VLS (6 meters) and AIP (10 meters) in the Scorpenes adding 400-500 tons weight. With both the Scorpene will be nearly 85 m long and displace nearly 2,400-2,500 tons (against 67.6 m and 2000 tons now)
https://ficci.in/spdocument/20803/Compandium%20Navy%20Submarine-2016-17.pdf
Speedy decision making, proactively ensuring absorption of whatever knowhow is passed is far better...
12 F21 torpedoes' and 6 Nirbhay missile or a similar mix will make for a formidable load out...the main bottleneck being unrealistic specs in terms of hardware and timelines and cost....
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