Indonesia Unlikely to Buy/Build SSNs

Ghalib's response to my article Australia's post-Election Nuclear Proliferation Concerns of May 11, 2022 was overwhelmingly oppositary. 

So it is in the spirit of intellectual honesty and détente that I quote his arguments in full.

On May 11, 2022, Ghalib Kabir said:

“Indonesia has its own 9 dash line related issues with China. It flies US made jets, has ordered French Rafales and is a customer for German-Korean [Type 209] subs... 

It might come down to how Indonesia is handled diplomatically in the larger Indo-Pacific picture me thinks....compared to the kind of animosity that hostile neighbours have such as in the in the Indian sub-continent or Eastern Europe, Australia and Indonesia have much less reasons for being mutually tetchy and concerned about their aims and abilities. 

Putin is capable of risk taking, however, I have serious questions about him leasing an Akula-class sub to the Indonesian Navy on 3 counts: 

1.  China - It is almost 100% guaranteed go down very very badly in Beijing...even the idea might not be entertained by a Beijing with big leverage over a post-Ukraine Russia. China is very likely to veto such a thought in the Russian echelons. 

2.  Indonesia's nuclear infrastructure is non-existent and I think this cannot be stressed enough. Nuclear engineers and technicians don't grow on trees and building domestic nuclear ecosystems from scratch is no joke, both money wise and effort wise. 

I posit that Indonesia has nowhere close to the manufacturing base required to even contemplate a nuclear propulsion based submarine. I am willing to bung an Australian  Monash (100 $) bill on the table as a wager with you mate on this one. 

3.  Indonesia cannot expect support even for an SN-BR type project with the help of France with the ostensible figleaf of a LEU based SN-BR SSN to counter NPT issues. France will not cross the US and proceed...It cannot even it wanted to as the Indonesians are decades behind even the much criticized Brazilians in the nuclear infrastructure sphere. 

Lastly, even leap frogging Australia GDP wise won't help jump over these barriers. (I seriously think Indonesia will not be able to the foot the bill even for a 2 SSN fleet). 

Indonesia and Australia and the larger Quad might all be best served if Indonesia's SSK fleet acted as a complement to the other partners SSK-SSN fleets. 

ASEAN, led by Malaysia and Indonesia, will not be helped one bit if they keep flapping around like wet hens throwing a hissy fit [over AUKUS] ...Throwing their lot with India-Quad-Ozzie land is better.

On May 12, 2022 Ghalib continued:

Of course, anything can happen over time. What I talk about is the possibility of such an occurrence, namely Indonesia getting an SSN. 

Australia has many advantages in terms of: 1. bloc membership, 2. geopolitical currents, 3. economic strength and 4. technological capabilities. 

What chance does Indonesia have to cover all those 4 bases? 

Bloc membership and economic strength is gettable with effort and indeed Indonesia is getting there. 

Geopolitical currents and technology abilities - highly unlikely anything similar to Australia will happen any time soon. 

PS: Mountains of 'facts at that time' changed as Australia and friends were inclined to make it change and all [AUKUS] factors were 'alignable' and hence they aligned. 

Tomorrow Indonesia can announce a national security policy shift to include SSNs and given its limitations cited above, we can be quite sure and add a red lobster $20 note on top of the Monash Note to up the wager that in 5-10 years Indonesia will exactly be at the same spot.

Pete Comment

I would add:

Even if Indonesia has a GDP higher than Australia in 10 years not much of Indonesia’s national budget would be available for SSNs.

Much of Indonesia’s GDP, for more than a decade, will be diverted to the mega-project of moving Indonesia’s capital from Jakarta to “Nusantara” on the island of Kalimantan (once called Borneo) if that project gets final approval.

Indonesia’s military has always been heavily orientated to internal security (keeping its disparate island peoples together) followed by protection of its energy resources from “friendly” ASEAN neighbours.

Indonesia is a democracy of relatively impoverished people who would not look kindly at the odd $100 Billion being blown on SSNs - money better spent to lift their living standards.