A prewar photo of Russian frigate Admiral Makarov. Inset - a very Harpoon looking Neptune anti-ship missile.
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I've enhanced the following articled with many hyperlinks. JOHN VARGA for the UK Express, reports, May 7, 2022:
“...that a
Russian navy frigate [Admiral Makarov] has been hit by Ukrainian Neptune
missiles.
[Russian frigate] Admiral Makarov is said to have been struck by anti-ship missiles while it was in waters off
the coast of Odessa. Rescue ships and aircraft have reportedly been sent to the
area and are being tracked by US surveillance drones.
"OSINTdefender", an open source intelligence monitor, tweeted:
"It’s seeming more and more likely that the claims about the Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov being stuck by Ukrainian
Anti-Ship Missiles off the Coast of Odessa are true.
"Multiple rescue
ships and aircraft are reportedly in the area with U.S surveillance drones
keeping eyes on it."
Social media user "UOI", a war analyst,
wrote: "Sources say the Russian frigate was hit by a Neptune missile and
is on fire near Snake Island."
Neither the Russian or Ukrainian officials have as yet officially confirmed
that the Russian frigate was hit.
If the reports are
confirmed, this would represent another humiliating blow for Vladimir Putin and
his naval high command.
Last month, the flagship of the Black Sea, the
Moskva [see SubMatt's article] , was sunk after being hit by Neptune missiles fired by the Ukrainian
army.
The [125m long, 4,000 tonne] Admiral Makarov is one of the most
important ships at the disposal of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
It belongs to the
Admiral Grigorovich-class of frigates and boasts impressive and powerful defence systems.
The frigate is armed with 24 Buk medium-range surface-to-air missiles and eight Kalibr cruise missiles, all in vertical
cells.
It is one of three such frigates in the possession of
the Russian Black Sea fleet.
The Admiral Markov was commissioned in 2017 and is
the most modern vessel in her class, and as such was a prime target for the
Ukrainian army.
The frigate is fairly small in comparison to other
warships, and has a crew of just 200 hundred.
The Russian naval high
command appeared to be trying to keep the frigate safe, by ordering it to stay
at least 100 miles away from the Ukrainian coastline.
However, this compromised its ability to provide
defensive cover to other Russian vessels and a military garrison on Snake
Island.
The Russian garrison was attacked last week by
Ukrainian operated TB-2 drones, which took out air-defence systems on the
island.
Afterwards the drones fired laser-guided missiles at
two Russian Raptor-class patrol boats, that came to the aid of the Russian garrison.
David Axe, a US military correspondent for Forbes, said: "Without the protection of a frigate, the Raptors were sitting ducks."
Subsequent Pete Comment
“Admiral
Makarov” may be undamaged and have an effective and not yet tested in action,
anti-missile system.
Contrary to the fog of
war and possible propaganda thereof, Wiki reports :
On 6 May 2022 Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko reported on Telegram instant messenger that Admiral Makarov had been struck and badly damaged by a Ukrainian R-360 Neptune anti-ship cruise missile while stationed near Snake Island.[16][17]
Some reports said the ship was on fire in the Black Sea,[17] Dumskaya, a Ukrainian news site, said Russian forces had sent helicopters to rescue the crew.[16]
HOWEVER, neither Russian nor Western military forces confirmed the claim.[16] In the event, on 7 May an advisor to Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovych said that the report was a 'misunderstanding', and that the vessel attacked near Snake Island was actually a Serna-class landing craft,[18] apparently hit by a missile launched by a Baykar Bayraktar TB2 drone.[19]"
Unlike "Admiral Makarov" a decidedly little Serna-class landing craft may displace around 100 tonnes full load.
9 comments:
Thanks Pete, very interesting. Well done Ukraine! Three things strike me about this report.
First, modern Russian warships (this very modern) are unable to stop sea skimming SSMs. Whether the problem is maintenance, or crew training, or sensors or PD weapon performance, the problem seems persistent. This suggests a vulnerability that greatly downgrades the perception of strength of the Russian Navy. Now every opponent will fire sea skimmers at them. Is the Russian Navy in any better shape than their army?
Second while I can understand possession of Snake Island on the Black Sea’s west coast must be strategic for blockading Ukraine’s ports, the question must arise whether it is worth the cost? The prospects of any amphibious operation here must now be low. So why keep risking dwindling ship numbers to support a deadlocked southern front line?
Third, the TB2 drones, or similar specification UAVs Australia could buy from a friendly supplier, look to be extremely good value for both recon and small strike roles. There is a naval version TB3 which the Turks are planning to fly off their LPD Anadolu. Anadolu is another Juan Carlos design so a virtual sistership to Adelaide and Canberra.
Why can’t we do the same thing? They have a 4000km range and 25 hrs endurance in a RCN role. This is exactly the LR patrol capability the RAN desperately lacks. Tied to firing Tomahawks off our AWDs the benefits of this seem obvious, for very little cost ($10 million/TB3 including spares!).
I know our LPDs wee not strengthened to fly F35s off the deck but the TB3 is only half the weight of an SH60 or MH90.
Hi Pete,
Hopefully someone knows if Russian systems are good,better or worse than our own anti missile defence systems, and can compare them. If our systems are comparable, then perhaps we might have to ask- should we bother spending $2-3bn per ship, needing years to build, when they can be badly damaged or sunk by just one hit, and that they can be easily hit as well.
What remedies should be taken? The Russian ships already have far more CIWS guns than ours do. Do the electronic systems need to be on 24/7?
Should ships have smaller and cheaper sensors, going out to no more than, say, 100km, instead of 400+? Because they will then be far less weight, less power drain, and, I assume, far cheaper.
Or should the pricey big ticket ships be kept a minimum distance away from shore?
Just my thoughts. Have a good one
Andrew
Hi Anonymous
Yes sea skimming anti-ship missiles routinely cause shock, followed by grief, to naval commanders, especially at the beginning of wars.
An Israeli ship suffered grief from a shore launched anti-ship missile in one of Israel's wars with Arab states. Oleg7700 would know the details.
The Falklands War saw several UK RN ships/craft sunk by Argentine missiles, beginning with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falklands_War#Sinking_of_HMS_Sheffield
UAV "Drones" are often an even more cost effective way to cause shock and grief.
Australia is a US invented Aegis Combat System (integrated sensors and weapons) operator along with others - the USN of course and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Combat_System#Operators
Aegis has proven itself against a civilian airliner https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Combat_System#Iran_Air_Flight_655 but I don't know about wartime success against hostile targets.
Hi Pete,
(it seems Ghalib already went over some of the things I wanted to say, but anyway...)
While I'm sure several factors (to include deficiencies in crew training and/or motivation at several levels) would have gone into this as well as the Moskva incident, I must point out that the equipment cannot be ruled out as the main culprit either. I'm specifically talking about the AK-630 close-in weapon system (CIWS) cannons & its supporting systems as well as some of the Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) complexes like the Shtil-1 (naval Buk).
Allow me to summarize the Indian Navy's nearly 40-year journey with those weapon systems, and the solutions sought to mitigate their shortcomings:
If we look at the Project-15 Delhi-class destroyers, designed with Soviet inputs in the late 1980s, you'll find they're equipped with the AK-630 CIWS and the Shtil-1 complex, with the MR-123 & MR-90 Fire Control Radars (FCRs) respectively providing the targeting cues.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delhi-class_destroyer
https://www.radartutorial.eu/19.kartei/11.ancient4/karte022.en.html
I'd gather the experience with the CIWS wasn't very good for the Indian Navy so the process began to replace the parts that don't work (radars & fire control systems/FCS) while retaining the parts that work fine (the rotary mechanism & the gun itself).
On the Delhi-class DDG's successor, the Project-15A Kolkata-class, you'll see that while the AK-630 system has been retained, its underperforming MR-123 FCR is nowhere to be seen. CIWS guns obviously cannot work without radar cues so the only conclusion that can be drawn is that the 'back-end' electronics of the AK-630 have been 'indigenized' to the extent where the ship's main Elta EL/M-2248 MFSTAR multifunction Active Phased Array Radar (APAR) itself can provide targeting cues for the AK-630's FCS.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolkata-class_destroyer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EL/M-2248_MF-STAR
Speaking of the MFSTAR radar...The operational experience with the Delhi-class DDG's Russian systems must have been quite unpleasant for the Indian Navy because as soon as the MFSTAR radar & the Barak-8 SAM system (jointly developed by India & Israel) became a viable alternative, they went to the extraordinary length of changing the configuration of the then-under construction (in 2000s) Kolkata-class ships AFTER they had already been launched, in order to remove the Shtil-1/MR-90 complex and replace it with the considerably superior Barak-8/MFSTAR complex - a system which now even allows for Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC), something the Russian surface fleet can only dream of at the moment. This abrupt change in configuration induced quite a massive delay to the destroyer program, but the Navy must have thought it worthwhile.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barak_8
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/indian-navy-demonstrates-co-operative-engagement-firing-capability
Original Kolkata-class configuration, before the change:
https://imgur.com/a/OobWJxh
Continued...
Continued from above...
But the discontent with Russian equipment was not limited to just Air Defence systems. It also extended to Surface-to-Surface Missile (SSM) systems like the BrahMos. Again, the kinetic & aerodynamic properties of the weapon were good enough (excellent, even), but was again let down by poor fire-control & electronics.
On top of the bridge of the Kolkata-class, you'll find a Russian radar called the 3Ts-25E Garpun-B. This was the main FCR for designating targets for the BrahMos SSM. The Navy understandably wasn't that happy with it...evidenced by the fact that the Kolkata's successor, the latest Project-15B Visakhapatnam/Vizag-class DDG no longer carries that radar.
https://www.radartutorial.eu/19.kartei/07.naval2/karte006.en.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visakhapatnam-class_destroyer
Obviously the ship's 16 x BrahMos SSMs still require fire control, that fact taken together with this news of tests of the SSMs with "advanced indigenous technologies" and "modified control system"...
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1791199
...allows us to infer that the original Russian seeker-head & FCS of the BrahMos have now been replaced with Indian-built alternatives (product posters below), which now allow for the ship's main MFSTAR radar to also perform fire control for the BrahMos as well.
https://imgur.com/a/DD1urB7
https://imgur.com/a/dAhotT2
Unfortunately, while the destroyers continued to evolve & get better with Western/Israeli/Indian technologies gradually replacing the Russian ones, the frigate classes of the Indian Navy continue to flounder. The 2018 order for 4 vessels of the Admiral Grigorovich class (the exact type that Makarov was), adding to 6 vessels of an earlier version in service...all while frigates of indigenous design & build like the Project-17 Shivalik-class which exceed the capability of these Russian designs already exist in service, can only be explained away as a piecemeal order to keep the Russians happy in exchange for their services elsewhere (we all know where).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shivalik-class_frigate
The Navy might not have been comfortable with sub-standard Russian equipment or ship designs in the destroyer classes (which form the main escort for carrier groups & task forces), but they had to accommodate the Russians somewhere, so frigates got the short end of the stick.
The only silver lining as far as the frigate classes are concerned, is that these 4 might be the last vessels of the Russian 'standard' to ever enter service with the Indian Navy, as even the future frigate types seem to follow the exact same standards as set by the latest Vizag-class DDGs:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nilgiri-class_frigate_(2019)
Artist render of the new Project-17A Nilgiri-class FFG now under construction:
https://imgur.com/a/UQYphQN
...goodbye Russian SAMs & FCRs!
Cheers
Hi Ghalib
Truth to tell Russian ship "Admiral Makarov" may be undamaged and may actually have an effective anti-missile system (unlike Moskva).
Contradicting the fog of war and propaganda, Wiki reports https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_frigate_Admiral_Makarov#Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine reports
"On 6 May 2022 Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko reported on Telegram instant messenger that Admiral Makarov had been struck and badly damaged by a Ukrainian R-360 Neptune anti-ship cruise missile while stationed near Snake Island.[16][17]
Some reports said the ship was on fire in the Black Sea,[17] Dumskaya, a Ukrainian news site, said Russian forces had sent helicopters to rescue the crew.[16]
HOWEVER, neither Russian nor Western military forces confirmed the claim.[16] In the event, on 7 May an advisor to Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovych said that the report was a 'misunderstanding', and that the vessel attacked near Snake Island was actually a Serna-class landing craft,[18] apparently hit by a missile launched by a Baykar Bayraktar TB2 drone.[19]"
Unlike "Admiral Makarov" a Serna-class landing craft may displace around 100 tonnes full load https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serna-class_landing_craft
Pete
Thanks Gessler
I'll turn your 2 posts into an article soon.
Regards Pete
And where is Admiral Makarov now?
There are ambiguities with the fate of the Russian frigates "Admiral Essen" and "Admiral Makarov" And their combat capability . We'll keep watch to see if anything happens...
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