February 11, 2022

Indonesia buying 42 Rafales, 36 F-15s & Maybe 2 Scorpenes

 Reuters, February 10, 2022 reports in part:

"JAKARTA, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Indonesia will order 42 Rafale fighter jets in a US$8.1 billion deal, France's defence ministry said on [Feb 10], as part of a series of agreements also including submarine development and ammunition, making Jakarta the biggest French arms client in the region.

"...A first phase of the deal, over six Rafale jets, will be executed over the next months, while the remaining 36 will be delivered at a later stage, either late this year or next year,..."

"...In addition to the fighter jets, Indonesia has also signed a memorandum to cooperate on the development of submarines which is set to result in an order of two Scorpene vessels, produced by Naval Group, the French defence ministry said."

Separately reported Indonesia is also buying 36 US F-15s for US$14 Billion. These will replace around 11 Russian Sukhois figheter-bombers Indonesia intended to buy.

Pete Comments

Aside from Indonesia's 33 F-16s and less than 10 Sukhois, these 42 Rafales and 36 F-15s compare with Australia's: newish 24 F/A-18F Super Hornets, 11 E/A-18G Growlers (1 on order), and 45 F-35As (27 on order). 

These new French and US purchases will make Indonesia stronger in interceptor fighters than Australia.

Two Scorpenes are not the logical three. They would also complicate training, spares and operations after decades of Indonesian experience with Type 209 variants.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

It would be fascinating to see a breakdown of the individual costs of the fighters and subs. After losing the Attack Class contract you would have to suspect Naval Group would offer a keenly priced Scorpene to maintain a foothold in the region which is now the world’s most active submarine market. Naval is a State owned company, so the French government could have underwritten the price.

On elections, I recommend Antony Greens website linked to the ABC. It may not sound much but with the AEC balancing electoral boundaries, 53/47 can be a decisive lead in Australian politics. I am not aware of any occasion in the past 30 years when a government has been returned with less than 48% of the vote.

Abao said...

Indonesia just annouced purchase of 36 F15Ds

Anonymous said...

Hi Anonymous at 6.27
I am not sure your views are correct
There is no deal for Scorpene but a "proposal for study.." , see later

On the rafale the deal was in the work for years and the contract ready /signed since April 2021 (before AUKUS). Indonesia purchased also last year Helicopters (H225M ) ,Fremm fregates , A400 M transports planes (with in flight refueling cap.). so Indonesia interest for Fr /European hardware is not news.Indonesia is rearming to face China novel ambitions

As Egypt , India, Indonesia is choosing Rafale over SU 35 and not for price reasons. In fact Rafale is always the most expensive..In Indonesia the budget enveloppe for 6 Rafales was earmarked initially for 11 SU 35..May be this plane has some merit?

As for the sub area we are in episode n, season 4 ,of our favorite TV serie "TKMS vs Naval/DCNS" following the" disappointment " of Indonesia over the DSME Nagasapa class (3 boats delivered since 2017) which according to "industry sources " do not( yet?) meet their specs (speed , depth..) and are unable to use their weapons.."annoying" indeed if exact..

TKMS refused to fix the boats in Germany and did not allow the Turkish yard to do the same
DSME modified the 209 (KSS1),increased it, and sold it w/o an export licence..TKMS was also "annoyed"..

TKMS is apparently proposing to rework the boats , sell new 214, and renew the older Brazilian 209 replaced by the Br Scorpene coming on service
Indonesia needs alternates solutions and has approached Naval for the last 18 months.
After all Naval is a credible supplier with Scorpene as experienced by Malaysia, India or Brazil..
Naval is apparently proposing , 2 subs, lithium batteries version of the Br2000 T W/O AIP, (not required by Brazil and apparently by indonesia due to distances)
The batteries proposed are the Saft Fe/PO4 used as well in the novel Italian/ German boats
These batteries ( technology used on Tesla cars ) have a somewhat lower capacitu than the Co/Ni types but are intrisically safe, have much longer life , and a power discharge profile and charge speeds quite favorable. On average the indiscretion ratio is 3to 4 time the LAB classical SSK. Much larger Diesel motors are needed to charge fast these batteries..


So this story has nothing to do with Aukus as it preceeds it.. However it is obvious that Aukus raised eyebrow in the area (US , Aus , UK? but not India, Indonesia,Malaysia , Vietnam or even Singapour (a staunch US ally..)
..
More info on the French Blog "Le Fauteuil de Colbert" of Feb 10 2022.

Pete said...

Hi Anonymous [at Feb 11, 2022, 6:27:00 PM]

Indonesia and France have been discussing Scorpenes since at least 2016, with little observable progress. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorp%C3%A8ne-class_submarine#Indonesia

Breakdown of costs, for confirmed or possible purchases, percentage of actual assembly in Indonesia, full life project costs and Commissions seem not to be published clearly in Indonesia. Some details may also be lost in Bahasa translation.

A cost of US$1 Billion per Scorpene (throwing in training and spares, etc) is my approximation. If Indonesia bought 2 mostly French built Scorpenes then a third Scorpene, assembled at PT PAL shipyard, Surabaya, might be possible.

Yes Antony Green is THE authority on Australian elections, with his website at https://antonygreen.com.au/

Regards Pete

Pete said...

Thanks Abao

Yes I've subsequently noted the F-15 purchase in the text.

If all the Rafales and F-15s are bought Indonesia might be stronger than Austalia in INTERCEPTOR fighters.

Regards Pete

Pete said...

Hi Anonymous [at Feb 12, 2022, 1:05:00 AM]

Thanks for all that very complicated, multi-national, detail regarding Scorpenes and Type 209s etc.

I understand the information originates from the French Blog "Le Fauteuil de Colbert" of Feb 10 2022. The link is https://lefauteuildecolbert.blogspot.com/2022/02/tentara-nasional-indonesia-angkatan.html#more .

As Indonesia-Naval Group Scorpene negotiations have been indefinite and prolonged, since 2016, if not earlier

we will see if the negogotiations result in an actual Deal.

Regards

Pete