February 4, 2022

Better Australia Choose UK Designed SSNs than US

Pete, being almost human, doesn't knock back plaudits. But Lex's comment below is much, much, more.

Below, a Jan 27 article, Lex, on Jan 28, 2022, commented

"Hello Pete

I agree with 'anonymous' that Plan 'A' (the Astute [with Lockheed Martin Integrated Combat System] LMA with an S9G reactor [currently on the US Virginia-class SSN]) is the best option for Australia, if the RAN is to succeed in establishing a nuclear propelled submarine service in a reasonable period of time. [Pete comment: Will discuss "the reactor choice largely maketh the SSN" next week.]

I strongly support those who point out the serious environmental and security risks and the daunting construction and decommissioning costs of civil nuclear power stations; besides which, the federal ALP leadership’s support for the SSN program is conditional on there being no action taken to establish a civil nuclear power program in Australia. 

It would be great if Submarine Matters was generally acknowledged as the one site where every morsel of public domain data on the acquisition of SSNs for the RAN was recorded and analyzed by people with diverse knowledge and viewpoints. 

I think you are doing a fantastic job [Thanks Lex :) ] and that Submarine Matters is already the 'go to' site on this topic.

If deftly executed, Plan 'A' makes any fallback (or fall forward) Plans superfluous. However, as many observers are not yet optimistic that Australia's (as yet) unsettled pathway to provide the RAN with eight modern SSNs will lead to success, it is still worthwhile considering emergency alternative Plans.

Therefore, it is my hope is that in the coming months, informed observers will submit to you : 

(1) their own technical, political, program mgt or other project failure scenarios;

(2) how policy makers could act to alleviate the project failures they cite; and

(3) alternate 'Plans' if the government of the day sees Plan 'A' as 'un-fixable'.

BUREAUCRATUS LEX JANUARY 28, 2022"

PETE COMMENT

Thanks Lex. Praise like yours keeps me writing.

Getting "all the ducks in a row" for Australia's future SSN Program "Plan A", is, as you indicate, an extremely complex problem, with many risks and unpredictables.

While discussions on Submarine Matters have been fairly UK Astute dominated, a surprise of Australia choosing the US rather than the UK for the hull and reactor is still possible. Chosing the US for the whole SSN (Combat System, Hull and Reactor) might prove highly risky for Australia due to the unpredictables of: build-in-US submarine industry pressures; US Congressional political hurdles, added to Pentagon and Presidential policy alterations. The last may really come to haunt if "lets make a new alliance dealTrump 2.0 wins the 2024 Election.

But the likelihood of Australia choosing Astutes (or maybe similar outer appearance UK follow on SSN(Rs) seems supported by:

-  the Astute (with no Virginia) photo on the official Australian Nuclear-Powered Submarine Taskforce website.  

-  comments by UK PM Johnson "hundreds of high-skilled [UK] jobs" etc here. with no similar claim by US President Biden.

-  the UK's HMS Astute visiting Western Australia, on October 29, 2021 (but no Virginia visit then or now). This is noting Australian Defence Minister Dutton was in attendance on October 29, as well as the UK High Commissioner. Both travelled around 3,000 km (each way) Canberra-to-Perth to be photographed standing on HMS Astute.

and

-  Australia has a lengthy history of former UK RN SSN commanders serving as Australian RAN submarine Commanders (eg. already on the navy.gov.au overt website

In terms of "getting Plan A. ducks in a row" training Australian nuclear submariners (in the 2020s-30s) will likely precede actual delivery of Australian SSNs (maybe late 2030s-early 2040s). 

Extensive Australian-UK secondment-training (in the 1960s-70s) for the Oberon submarines may be repeated with training on Astutes in the 20s-30s. Noting:

"...the RAN began sending volunteers for [Oberon] submarine training with the Royal Navy.  This flow of personnel was maintained as the building programme progressed, and so as each vessel was commissioned she was manned almost entirely by RAN officers and sailors."

Training might also include many of the Australian nuclear engineers and on shore maintainers at the UK's Devonport (part) SSN base

While Australia actually leasing a whole Astute or two may expedite training of Australian crews and maintainers - this may well be precluded by the UK priority tasking Astutes to  remain in Atlantic (or near) waters.

10 comments:

Nicky said...

Hi Pete
IMO, the Australians are better off with the Astute class SSN than the Virginia class SSN mainly because they don't have number of crews to justify the Virginia class SSN. The Astute's have a crew of 98 but can go as high as 109, whereas the Virgina class SSN is crewed at 135. So australia doesn't have the numbers to crew a single Virginia class SSN. They will more likely crew the Astute class SSN in their current state.

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete,

I agree with Lex's comment about Submarine Matters being the preeminent site for, well, submarine matters. It's very detailed and well beyond what my armchair amateur knowledge is. In fact, it reminds me more of the information detail I learnt at university for my degree for my profession (I'll keep that secret :) ).

As for which sub to choose, I sometimes wonder if it's more important to have any nuclear submarine in the water, rather than the very latest one. One thing I've read is that the Astute will be outdated by the time Australia's Astute gets built. However, to put it in context, the West is acknowledged as being more advanced than the Chinese Subs, and no one is denying the threat they pose. That means having any submarine which is relatively recent, might better than waiting yet an extra 10 years for the ideal one for training and latest technology. ie: good enough might be enough. It'll be faster, and you will have all the personnel, infrastructure in place by the time you start work on the very latest submarine. I can see arguements for and against, just like for the Astute, the Virginia's etc.

Thanks again for the blog, have a good day!

Andrew

Pete said...

Hi Nicky [your Feb 4, 2022, 5:57:00 PM]

Yes Australia cannot afford very large crews for its future SSNs.

Australia likely has difficulty finding 58 submariners per sub IF 5 Collins-class subs are operating simultaneously https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine

So I agree the smaller crews, at 98 submariners, needed for the Astutes (and for the likely Astute replacements) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astute-class_submarine

are preferable to 135 submariners in each Virginia class sub https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine

Regards

Pete

Pete said...

Hi Andrew [Feb 4, 2022, 6:10:00 PM]

Thanks so much for your praise :)

A. Two things I try to do to improve comprehension of the inevitable Alphabet Soup of submarine related acronyms is:

- expanding the acronyms on first mention, like "Air Independent Propulsion (AIP)"

and/or

- to have hyperlinks to strange words/acronyms (like "MIRV" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_independently_targetable_reentry_vehicle )

B. Yes there's a timing - what I call "getting ducks in a row " problem in the Astutes' production line - as it may end with the last Astute "HMS Agincourt" in 2026 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astute-class_submarine#Boats_in_the_class .

Australian nuclear submarine crews might only be sufficiently trained up to crew whole nuclear subs in about 2035.

Then the first in the "SSN(R) class" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSN(R) that is to replace the Astutes, may only appear around 2043. So our Aussie nuclear crews are "twiddling their thumbs for 8 years.

However, if Australian money talks the UK may alter the timings for SSN(R) tto achieve deliveries in (say) 2036, which would suit our Australian Navy.

Regards

Pete

Anonymous said...

Thanks Pete. Like Lex I agree with your view of the Astute being the preferable choice for Australia on multiple grounds of deliverability. I agree with others that it is far better to get on of the world’s best SSNs into the water reliably than to get the very best but be unable to reliably operate and sustain it.

I also consider that choosing Astutes would reduce political risks in delivery. We have discussed Australian political risks but there are also foreign ones.

First in USA. What if Trump is re-elected and pulls the plug on US supply of some of the unique high tech items in the Virginias? He looked at defense from a very narrowly American viewpoint when in office. Whereas it is much harder to see British support waning if Australia gave BAE a large contract to build Astutes in Adelaide with specialist components like reactor compartments supplied from Barrow, augmenting their work supply for 30 years. I cannot see UK Labour or Conservatives wanting to abandon that. The SSN contract would be as big a win for UK industry as the Attack Class one was for France. The fact that Australian SSN money flowing into UK would help financially stabilise the UK SSN program would benefit both countries and their navies in the long term.

Second there is the question of relations with other Asian neighbours. Most supported Australia when AUKUS was announced but Indonesia and Malaysia did not. The Virginias with their VLS capability give land strike potential the Astutes are less able to match. This also means the Astutes can be more easily be accepted by neighbours as a purely defensive naval capability.

Third in Australia. Labor did not oppose AUKUS, but in a subsequent speech Penny Wong did raise some concerns about the manner of the decision and issues of sovereignty. This might be another selling point for the Astutes. In reality any Australian SSNs will be closely integrated with USN operations but politicians see perceptions as reality. Australia and UK are much closer in relative power than Australia and USA. Australia would have a much better bargaining position and much more leverage with the Astutes with UK when it came to making operational decisions than it would with the USN if it was running Virginias.

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete
Some numbers

Out of 8 subs, only 4 to 5 at most will be available (the remaining being in maintenance , up to 2 years or shorter..)
Each sub requires typically 2 alternate crews as a N sub sails underwater typically 50/60 days in each cruise( the limit to crew acceptance). The crew not sailing is on leave and training.(The navies objectives is to sail 240/280 days /years when operationnal)

Most submariners spend typically 5 to 7 years in duty before familly, boredom,financial incentives..(same in all services)decide them to stop

You have to recruit, train and graduate every year , about 150 young technical graduates,fit psycho and physically, for a prestigious but dangerous,boring ,low paid job

Quite difficult indeed

Pete said...

Hi Anonymous [at Feb 6, 2022, 5:03:00 AM]

Thanks for those numbers.

Yes "Out of 8 subs, only 4 to 5 at most will be available (the remaining being in maintenance , up to 2 years or shorter..)"
- Looks right, with major (2 year overhauls) occuring in years 9? and 10? etc?

I'm aware SSBN's need 2 crews ("Blue and Gold" for USN) and ("Port and Starboard" UK RN)
- BUT I'm less sure UK and US SSNs operate on a 2 crew basis?

"Most submariners spend typically 5 to 7 years in duty before familly, boredom, financial incentives..(same in all services) decide them to stop"
- This is/will be a particular problem for Aus East coast based families that have Fleet Base West based male (Dads) and these days female (Mums) submariners.

You have to recruit, train and graduate every year , about 150 young technical graduates,fit psycho and physically, for a prestigious but dangerous, boring, low paid job.

- I've heard Australian submariners get "pretty good pay" (in part to reduce "wastage" to the WA mining industry) AND after a few years submariner retention bonuses?

- Nuclear training will be an extra hurdle (maybe years of Extra training) for reactor propulsion submariners. Also, if the US system is adopted, even Aus SSN Commanders and XOs will need to serve several years as onboard propulsion engineers?

Regards

Pete

Pete said...

Hi Anonymous [at Feb 5, 2022, 8:48:00 PM]

I'll turn your inspired comments into an article tomorrow.

Regards

Pete

Anonymous said...

hi pete
yes SSN as well as SSBN have 2 crews (red and blue in the Fr Navy)
Contrary to SSK , SSN are ubiquitous, they can be everywhere and anytime.
Not only they run fast , deep, but they stay submerged most of the time(they are designed for that as in surface, they are slow and behaving poorly in rough sea )
They can provide interdiction over a huge area, escort aircraft carrier due to their speed or protect SSBN departure /reentry critical part of their patrol..several SSk to try to emulate partially a single SSN

The Saphir SSN has been dismantled in 2019 after 35 years of service out of which 13 years diving with an average of 240 days/year in diving mode ,62% of the operationnal time (ie not in maintenance /overhaul)
This is not feasible with a single crew

https://www.smart-appart.fr/en/news/351-le-saphir-french-nuclear-submarine-will-be-dismantled-in-cherbourg

Pete said...

Hi Anonymous [at Feb 8, 2022, 4:02:00 AM]

1. Thanks. SSBNs seem to have 2 crews in all the navies (US, UK, France, Russia, China, India) that have them.

I'M WONDERING WHETHER THE MUCH LARGER (MORE FOOD, LESS EXHAUSTION?) UK AND US SSNS HAVE 2 CREWS?

Thanks for the info on French SSNs having "red and blue" 2 crews. In that regard thanks for https://www.smart-appart.fr/en/news/351-le-saphir-french-nuclear-submarine-will-be-dismantled-in-cherbourg on the retirment of French SSN Saphir. Also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_submarine_Saphir_(S602) .

I see from the article that even one crew on the Saphir was 75 submariners of the Rusis-class SSNs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubis-class_submarine.

Within Saphir's 2,400 tonne displacedment (surfaced) Saphir could only take very limited food for such a large crew. So food and crowded crew exhaustion would usually make for short missions making a 2 crew system Logical and reactor-economical.

In comparison France's Suffren-class SSNs will be much larger and with only 60 submariner crews.

GIVEN ALL THAT SPACE MIGHT SUFFRENS HAVE ONLY A ONE CREW SYSTEM SOMETIMES?

----------------

2. Yes, all the strategic and operation advantages of SSNs over SSKs make Australian SSNs worthwhile.

Australia certainly needs the speed of SSNs to escort allied carriers, our own LHD "battle groups", to "conquer" Australia's vast operating distances and to deter "enemy" nuclear subs.

Regards Pete