Gessler provided interesting insights into India's S5-class SSBN and Alpha SSN Programs on February 18, 2022:
1) Pete Question: What happens if India takes 20 years to commission the first Alpha SSN? This is taking into account the standard 15 years for a new submarine class + 5 years first Alpha-class indigenous SSN.
Gessler responds: Firstly, I have no idea as to what level the design/development work on the SSN program has been completed, but like I said previously on your blog much will depend on which way they choose to go (an Arihant shape without silos, or a completely new design).
Either way, once construction starts I'd estimate a minimum of 8 and maximum of 11 years for the first-of-class boat to be commissioned. [This could taken into account India's approval of the Alpha Project on February 2015] So if the keel is laid by around 2025, a mid-2030s date for the first boat to be handed over to the Indian Navy. Again, the time will be hugely dependent on how different the boat is compared to the Arihant.
If its like the aforementioned "Arihant without Silos" with only minor changes/modifications, the build time is likely to be relatively short, especially if its coming off the same production line that's been building the Arihant-class (which will be free after S4* is done, which is more than likely well into construction).
Speaking of not knowing the
stage of construction, you will see that all nuclear submarine development
efforts in India are about as secretive as the Chinese ones are. The only exception
was the SSN program due to the funding issue (explained below). For example
nobody knows what's the status of the next-gen SSBN program (S-5)...which is an
example of a program where the funding modalities were already worked out
(carried over from Arihant's methodology).
Out of the blue, S5's possible shape was Indian Vice President Tweet 'leaked' on August 28, 2019 that hydrodynamic testing of S-5-class designs was going on.
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The point being, while we can observe from the public domain the tussle over who's going to pay for the construction, there's no real way to know the exact status of the design & development work (which understandably has to be in place & has to be binding before construction starts) surrounding any of India's N-sub programs.
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2) Pete Question: What impact does the death of the Alpha SSN’s highest level champion, Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat, who died in a helicopter crash on December 8, 2021 have on the Alpha SSN Program?
Gessler respond's: I'm pretty sure the General's unfortunate death will negatively effect several aspects of the plan for Theaterization of Combatant Commands - however I doubt it will have a noticeable effect on the SSN program itself, because as far as I can tell, consensus on the program & its funding was already reached prior to the General's passing.
That said, the issue was never that the Indian Navy did not want SSNs, it was regarding who would fund the said program - whether the funds will come out of the Navy's own capital outlay (which would require them to prioritize/cut down on programs like IAC-2) [was to be named INS Vishal], or would the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) directly requisition the funds from its Cabinet/Finance Ministry for the program (as was the case for funding of the 'strategic' Arihant-class SSBNs).
Till recently the Navy
wanted the PMO to foot the bill for the SSN program, and as such every single
public/media interaction with Navy leadership would have the Admirals referring
to the SSBN & SSN programs as being under the same 'strategic gamut' - even
though in all likelihood the SSNs will not be carrying any nuclear weapons.
Now that the matter has been settled (that the funding for SSN will come from Navy's own budget), I doubt the Admirals have much wiggle room left as doing so would certainly not earn them any favours from either the PMO or the Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval's office and/or National Security Council.
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