There has been much speculation on Israel's future Dolphin 3, Dakar-class submarines.
On January 20, 2022 /Kjell brought up some useful purchasing details of Israel’s future Dakar-class submarines, which I christened the "Dolphin 3s" in 2016. The first of the Dolphin 3s, INS Dakar, is expected to be commissioned in 2031.
Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) For Dolphin Submarines?
As the Dolphin 1s and Dolphin 2s reportedly carry nuclear weapon tipped missiles (maybe cruise missiles (SLCMs) or maybe ballistic (SLBMs) the missile details and their launch modes are secret. After Israel receives each Dolphin from TKMS Israel apparently carries out extensive modifications to make them nuclear missile capable.
At a minimum Israel would have a
specialised Combat System (including special sensors, databases, software and
hardware) to enable firing and tracking the missiles. Wiki implies the Dolphin
1s and 2s use their 4 x 650mm torpedo tubes to fire the nuclear missiles and for
other purposes.
Alternatively Israel’s extensive Dolphin 1 and 2 post-delivery modifications may go as far as installing VLS to enable rapid ripple fire of the nuclear missiles. H I Sutton on January 19, 2022 discussed whether the last in class Dolphin 2, named INS Dragon (Drakon in Hebrew) may owe its greater length possibly to 6 VLS tubes.
Looking at Oleg7700's comment now of February 4, 2022, in Comments below, INS Dragon may have a Vertical Multi-Purpose Lock "VMPL". If this comment is based on fact, a VMPL is better at accommodating ever larger missile upgrades than (the more or less permanently) restricted dimensions of smaller VLS tubes. If Oleg is from Israel, implying good access, "VMPL" may have validity.
Whether INS Dragon has VLS or not, now that South Korea has launched a part
TKMS derived KSS-III, with VLS, it is thought increasingly
likely that Israel’s future TKMS built Dolphin 3s may carry VLS.
Anonymous, on February 2, 2022, also provided useful comments on the sale of the Dolphin 3s.
“Israel has ordered three Dolphin 3, Dakar-class
submarines from TKMS [1-3]. The price of the submarines is 3 billion
euros. This is with a 20% of German government [post Holocaust humanitarian] subsidy
[4]. According to the picture by H I Sutton [3], currently, specific
diamond shape of 212CD to reduce noise may probably not be adopted for
Dakar-class.
[1] https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/01/israel-orders-3-new-dakar-class-submarines-from-tkms/
“Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS)
has reached an agreement with the Israeli Ministry of Defence on the framework
conditions for the purchase of three Dakar-class submarines. After extensive
negotiations, all parties involved agreed to the technical content and
contractual provisions on Thursday.”
Pete Comment: Artwork 2's sail/fin is so long it almost begs the questions "Might Israel's Dolphin 3 SLBM VLS's be housed in the sail/fin, like a North Korean Sinpo-C submarine? Or is it just a radical design concept to fool the viewer?"
Germany's Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems
(TKAG.DE) will build three advanced submarines for the Israeli Navy in a deal
worth 3 billion euros (US$3.4 billion), the Israeli Defense Ministry said on [January
20, 2022]
“The Israeli Navy maintains a high
level of secrecy surrounding its submarine capabilities. And the latest boat,
the INS Dragon, is more secretive than most. This may be driven by new weapon
capabilities, possibly including a vertical launch system (VLS).”
”the Germans had raised the price of
the vessels to 3 billion euros, and that the German government had not
increased its subsidy. Israel, which originally was to pay 1.2 billion euros,
was now required to pay 2.4 billion euros.”
Pete Comment
Almost a “law of submarine purchasing” is that over decades a customer buys steadily larger, heavier, therefore more capable, submarines. Israel has followed this trend in its 50 years of purchasing TKMS designs (as far back as the 500 tonne Gal-class). The Dolphins 2s could be described as TKMS Type 214 variants, heavier than the Dolphin 1s (Type 209 variants).
In turn the Dolphin 3s may turn out to be
influenced by Type 212CD insides. This might include larger batteries, more diesel fuel, more AIP
chemicals (for greater range) and to take the weight of VLS and SLBMs. All this may be in a Dolphin 3 that is as large as the 2,500 tonne (surfaced) Type 212CD.
The shape of INS Dakar, the first Dolphin
3, may only become public in 2030. It may look more like Artwork 2 (TKMS’s “Official
rendering”) than a "diamond shape" Type 212CD.
9 comments:
https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/schleswig-holstein/Drei-U-Boote-fuer-drei-Milliarden-Euro-TKMS-in-Kiel-baut-fuer-Israel,uboot838.html . „…With a length of more than 80 meters, the new boats of the so-called Dakar class will be the largest submarines ever built in Germany. If everything goes according to plan, the first submarine should be handed over to the Israeli Navy as early as 2029.” https://www.militaeraktuell.at/drei-neue-deutsche-u-boote-fuer-israel/ "...In any case, the trend is towards larger submarines like these,” explained Rolf Wirtz as shipyard director to THB (daily port report). In the meantime, boats with a displacement of 2,800 and more than 3,000 tons are being planned in the project department.” https://marineschepen.nl/ "Type 212CD displacement at surface is 2.500 tonnes, and 2.800 tonnes submerged. The submerged displacement of the Type 212CD E (оffer for the Netherlands) is 3.200 tonnes.
Displacement of the 'Dolphin 3' / Dakar wiil be maybe in 3.400 t. (minimum)." Rendering simplified, but - "Common Design" TkMS! Including conning tower sail size...
Patent TKMS: https://www.freepatentsonline.com/20190315445.pdf Shalom from Israel!
Hi Pete
As Dakar-class ($1.1billion, [1]) is 2.2times more than Dolphin-class ($500million, [2], all submarine technologies of TKMS might be applied for Dakar-class.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-signs-34-bln-submarines-deal-with-thyssenkrupp-2022-01-20/
Germany's Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKAG.DE) will build three advanced submarines for the Israeli Navy in a deal worth 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion = each $1.1billion), the Israeli Defense Ministry said on Thursday
[2] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/in-the-belly-of-the-whale-israeli-submarine-simulates-strike/articleshow/83397897.cms?from=mdr
“Speculation surrounds the role of the fleet of five Dolphin-class submarines, each costing some $500 million. A sixth is on order from the German manufacturer. Some analysts suggest these boats may be capable of launching nuclear missiles.”
Regards
Thanks Pete, interesting story. I note the cost is $1 billion Euros each for a 2000 or 2500 tonne SSK. I think there are lessons here for Australia in better understanding the cost of new submarines.
In the past I have read many comments that “nuclear submarines cost X times the cost of a diesel submarine” as though it is a fixed rule. That seems not to be the case. Submarine cost is evidently a function of size, propulsion type, number of advanced technologies fielded, and number of hulls built of the same type.
Most recent examples of diesel submarines have been small coastal types under 2000 tonnes. Without AIP or Li-ion batteries, these are typically half or less the cost of an SSN. Yet the SSNs are usually much bigger and, except in USA, built in much smaller numbers. So I suspect the real cost premium for building SSNs is less than claimed, and the comparisons are distorted by other factors like differing tonnage and development costs. There is obviously a large cost in establishing the supporting infrastructure for SSNs. But these are not simple multiples of the cost. Once they are paid for, the cost can be spread over all subsequent SSNs.
Reading some French sources on the Suffren (Barracuda SSN) program, the cost of the “fixed price” contract has crept up from 8.1 billion Euro (2009) to 10.4 billion Euro (2015) for six SSNs, or 1.3 billion Euro each. The reactor contract was “approximately 15%” of the cost or 180 million Euro each. US SSN programs similarly talk about reactor costs of up to $200 million US dollars, more for the reactor core (fuel).
By comparison, French media reported the cost of the Lockheed Martin contract for weapons and combat systems on the Attack Class was originally 10 billion Euro (30%) out of the 34 billion Euro contact cost announced in 2016. So the weapons system cost more than nuclear power cost on the French SSN equivalent.
What is the point of all this? The cost of 12 x 5000 tonne SSKs developed from scratch was always going to be high. The cost of 8 or 9 SSNs, built to the same standard of technology to an existing design, may not be greatly different. Likewise, once all the supporting SSN sustainment facilities are in place, the cost of each extra SSN is a lot less than the average of the program cost.
This leads me to another observation: if Labor wins the next Australian election (looking likely) and insists on the continuous build approach, a simple switch in program may suffice. That is, switch from 12 SSKs built in four tranches of 3 boats, to 9 SSNs built in three tranches of 3 boats. The longer build time for the SSNs would see this program take a similar time, and extend up to the point where the next class would commence.
Thanks Anonymous [at Feb 3, 2022, 9:30:00 AM]
An even greater complication is in what year were those submarine prices recorded eg. it could be 1990s dollars for INS Dolphin. What discount the German government funded to reduce the TKMS price for Israel. What profit margin TKMS expected. What new infrastructure piers and simulators Israel needed to build for steadily larger subs.
One could go on and on.
Regards
Pete
Hi Anonymous [at Feb 3, 2022, 9:41:00 AM]
See my response at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2022/02/trying-to-price-ssns-for-foreign.html today on Feb 3, 2022.
Regards
Pete
I (Pete) have copied Oleg7700's "INS "Dragon" with [Vertical Multi-Purpose Lock] VMPL" etc
comment of Feb 3, 2022, 6:39:00 PM comment at https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=19245896&postID=9031183951297477787&page=1&token=1643945832312
to "Comments" below this part Dolphin article, as I think it more useful here:
"Oleg7700 said...
This is a framework treaty with additional protocols negotiated at a later date. (The cost of the customer's equipment is not included) Dolphin-2AIP - 593 million euros. (Steffen Seibert, Merkel government spokesman) Dolphin-2AIP+ (INS "Dragon" with VMPL etc etc...)- plus 140 million ~ 840 milliom euros. (שינוי הייעוד, הגודל והוספת המערכות לא באים בחינם והם גררו תוספת של 140 מיליון אירו על המחיר הבסיסי)"
[ie. the sentence in Hebrew above yields]
"The change of designation, size and addition of the systems do not come for free and they have led to an increase of 140 million euros on the base price.
In 11/2021 it was already ready to leave the assembly hall, at the last minute it was decided to make some slight improvements and add more elements, so the exposure was postponed to the first half of 2022. Regards...
Feb 3, 2022, 6:39:00 PM"
H I Sutton (image) "Hull likely same diameter as Dolphin-2" This is not a hull, this is EW, Electronic Warfare! ( but not its scale?) No one would let the correct drawing... Regards.
Hi Oleg7700 [your Feb 5, 2022, 6:31:00 AM comment]
Yes this is understandibly just an imagined outer and inner view
of INS Dragononly, the last Dolphin 2.
Exact shapes inside the sub (especially the nuclear missile facilities)
and the lower 2/3s of the hull, below the waterline (revealing the sonar return cross-section)
would remain secret.
Regards
Pete
Squeezing in three MTU 396 SE84's side by side into a 6,80 meter wide Dolphin 2 pressure hull is a mission impossible.
If you interpret detailed photo's of Dolphin 2's at the shipyard in Kiel.
You will find out the follwing dimensions:
Total height from keel to sail top / roof....= 13,40 meter.
Maximum height of hull.......................= 8,85 m.
Maximum hull diameter........................= 8,36 m.
Max. length of hull, 1st two Dolphin 2's.....= 68,60 m.
Total length of last Dolphin 2, INS Drakon...= 71,50 m.
Displacement of INS Drakon, submerged = 2.530 tonnes
'Dolphin 3', Dakar class is a different design than Dolphin 2.
Will be parent / prototype for Type 212CD / CD E.
The 75 meter long Type 212CD E has a submerged displacement of 3.200 tonnes.
Locum,
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