Hong Kong, China, US, S Korea, Currency & 5G Semiconductors

On July 16, 2020 Anonymous introduced the following interesting summary of a discussion on Hong Kong, China, US, Currency and 5G Semiconductor matters [1] and [2].

Hong Kong

(Presenter) Economic prosperity of Hong Kong is based on three factors:

i) free trade port (=zero tariff on all goods)

ii) low corporate tax rate, and

iii) reliable Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) is 100% endorsed by USD and 1USD is fixed to 7.75-7.85 HKD. Does it change?

(Suzuoki) No tariff and low corporate tax rate policy will be maintained, but problem is HKD. USA might sell HKD.

(Sanada) As currency supports the sovereignty of a nation, the existence of the HKD itself is unpleasant for China. China is going to change its one country two system approach, and the HKD becomes unreliable in the international society. This definitely results in an exchange rate depreciation of HKD. China accepts the unreliability of the HKD and China rather intentionally will change the present status of the HKD, because China’s base currency is CNY. China is going to establish a CNY economy against the USD. Experts on international finance may say it will take time to establish a CNY economy. But, if the combination of the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) and (the Belt and Road Initiative) successfully grow during the Coronavirus disaster, the CNY economy may happen quickly.

(Presenter) Under CNY economy, what should we do?

(Sanada) We have to adopt to such an ambiguous situation.

(Suzuoki) A "CNY economy" sounds strange, but, there were [Soviet/Russian] Ruble and USD blocks in the Cold War. China intends this situation.

(Presenter) There is a rumor that leaders of CCP accumulate wealth such as money laundering and profit return through a Hong Kong loophole [front]. Is this rumour true? Does this monetary process occur?

(Suzuoki) I do not know whether the rumour is true or not, but, the USA believes it is true and tries to bully China. Leaders of China's CCP insist officially there is a CNY economy, but they think it is difficult. The USA does not admit [to a?] rule violation, which the USA have overlooked, any more by China through Hong Kong. [?]

(Sanada) The USA aims to stop flow of technologies, products and capital to China through Hong Kong, but, China expects this. China can obtain them through Europe, especially Germany.

(Presenter) Disputes over semiconductors between USA and China are escalating. The USA invited semiconductor equipment from the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd (TSMC). Though South Korea is an ally of USA [3] it has a strong trade connection with China.

(Suzuoki) The USA directly threatened South Korea's Samsung not to sell semiconductors to Huawei [2]. Japan and USA manufacture raw materials such as fluorinated polyimide, photoresist and hydrogen fluoride for 5G semiconductor of Samsung. Photoresist is a key material. Dutch semiconductor company (ASML) was stopped from supplying its product to Huawei by US threats. Japan and USA can jointly prohibit the export of the above raw materials to South Korea.

(Sanada) Semiconductor related market share of Huawei is 35% and is surprisingly a bit increasing under current severe sanction. The total share of Huawei and Samsung is nearly 50% and integration of Huawei and Samsung is a serious matter for USA. To prevent this, USA made Taiwan to its side. 

However, it is not enough because the share of Taiwan is small. Japanese government starts, receiving US pressure, to give a subsidy (10 trillion JPN = 9 billion USD) to Fujitsu, Rakuten Mobile and NEC for development of 5G semiconductor. South Korea may be going to China side.

(Presentor) Does Samsung distance itself from South Korean President Moon Jae-inn's administration?

(Sanada) It wants to put a distance, but, cannot. South Korea government might arrest Lee Jae-yong, head of Samsung.

(Suzuoki) Samsung is a multinational corporation, but, its HQ is in Seoul and owner family is Korean to whom South Korean law is applied.

(Presentor) Is it a threat by using law?

(Suzuoki) That’s right. Successive South Korean governments have controlled "Chaebols" in this manner. As South Korean government has enormous power, it can do anything. Samsung can not go to USA because owner family and executives are Korean.

 (Presenter) What does the market think of the US Presidential Election?

(Sanada) In common sense, Biden wins because he has a 10% advantage over Trump at this time. In the last election, Hillary Clinton was overwhelmingly picked to beat Trump, but Hillary lost. Therefore, the market doubts current public opinion polls. Trump is appreciated in the economy. Market doubts to what extent Biden secures national interests of USA. Trump will criticize a pro-China orientation of Biden, and will point out issues of WHO and Hong Kong, and this tactic is effective on the public.

[1] Hong Kong strategy by Xi Jinping and future of free trade: thorough analysis by Sanada* and Suzuoki**, PRIME news*** Part 1 https://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/61029

[2] ibid Part 2 https://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/61028)

* Yukimitsu Sanada, Professor of Aichi Shukutoku University, expert on East Asian regional economy and international finance

** Takabumi Suzuoki, Journalist and ex-editor of Nikkei Inc., expert of politics of South Korea.

*** BS Fuji PRIME news, past performers (status at the time): Y. Nakasone (ex-PM), Shinzo Abe (PM), S. Shii (Chairman of Japan Communist Party), Y. Koike (Governor of Tokyo), Y. Yoshihide (Chief Cabinet Secretary), etc.

[3] https://www.donga.com/en/Search/article/all/20200615/2091800/1/U-S-promises-to-protect-S-Korea-against-any-Chinese-retaliatory-action

In resent exclusive interview of US Under Secretary of State, Keith Krach, by “The Dong-a Ilbo”, he requested South Korea join the EPN (Economic ProsperityNetwork = anti-China network), and suddenly said “Samsung is a good company.” This was a direct threat to Samsung if it sells semiconductors to Huawei, USA will crush you”( this part was omitted in this article).

Anonymous

COVID-19 to Overwhelm Australian ICU Beds: Unless...

1. Without COVID-19 cases isolation, traveller quarantine and social distancing COVID-19 cases will by-far-overwhelm the number of Australian Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds used for all types of diseases and accidents of people of all ages.

ICU wards are always heavily used/catered for - for all causes eg. mother's birth complications, infant illnesses, heart cases of 50 year old men, post cancer surgery, increased normal flu cases (right now) in the Southern Hemisphere Winter and accidents.

Unlike severe flu viruses and earlier covid viruses COVID-19 doesn't make most spreaders really ill. Without isolation-quarantine measures COVID-19 spreads quickly in a comparatively undetectable way.

2.   Source: the Medical Journal of Australia "Surge capacity of Australian intensive careunits associated with COVID-19 admissions" March 30, 2020 at 

This is the simple but deadly numbers game:

- There are 191 ICUs in Australia with available ICU beds = 2,378

Maximal estimate surge of ICU beds (an 191% increase) = 4,258

This surge would require:

- a 325% increase in senior doctors = 4,092

and

- a 365% increase in ICU nurses = 42,720

3. Source: Australian Government "IMPACT OF COVID-19: Theoretical modelling of how the
     health system can respond" at 

(i) modelling of an uncontrolled COVID-19 outbreak requires ICU beds = 35,000

(which would greatly exceed Australia’s expanded/surge capacity of less than 7,000 beds)

(ii) With cases isolation and quarantine, demand is reduced to ICU beds = 17,000

(still well above expanded/surge ICU bed capacity).

(iii) With isolation, quarantine and social distancing daily ICU demand is a containable number of less than 5,000 people.

CONCLUSION

So without COVID-19 cases isolation, traveller quarantine and social distancing COVID-19 cases will by-far-overwhelm the number of Australian ICU beds used for all types of diseases and accidents of people of all ages.

Pete

Three Dysfunctional Factors in US Presidential Elections

In response to Anonymous's interesting comment of July 15, 2020:

Ever since the year 2000, when George W. Bush was voted President, there have been 3 major factors in the US Presidential Electoral system that have thrown up unwise/dangerous choices.

Those factors are:

-  Nepotism (influence of George W's former President father, employing Trump's daughter and son-

   in-law as senior White House advisers (and further back "Bobby" as Attorney General, under 

   JFK)).

-  Personal financial fortune, allowing candidates to effectively buy the Presidency independent of,
   and even in spite of sober and experienced Party members, and

-  Democrat or Republican Party members influence electoral procedures in each State.
   In the US “A presidential election is held every fourth year. Federal elections are administered by
   state and local governments, although the specifics of how elections are conducted differ between
   the states. The Constitution and laws of the United States grant the states wide latitude in how they
   administer elections.”

Australia also has a Federal, State and Local government system. Australia's system of an independent Federal Australian Electoral Commission is an example the US could consider adopting, by amending the Constitution.

These 3 factors have resulted in poorly qualified Presidents and their family-staff members, over-aged Presidents and/or Candidates, rich Presidents who buy the Presidency and dubious “Swing state” election systems that determine who wins (eg. Florida in 2000).

The big exception to the Nepotism and Personal financial fortune facors was the sound, experienced, and also not too old Barack Obama.

Taking your references in sequence:

[1] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/03/11/commentary/world-commentary/biden-obviously-dementia-withdraw-race/   “Biden obviously has dementia and should withdraw from the race”

The 25th Amendment of the US Constitution deals with issues related to presidential succession and disability.

It appears the US Constitution and Amendments do not apply to Biden because he is only a Candidate, not a President - so far.

[2] https://www.the-sun.com/news/1060753/joe-biden-2020-dementia-election-day-trump-health/  

“Almost 40 PERCENT of Americans ‘think Joe Biden has dementia and 61 percent think he should publicly address it’”

and

[3]  https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia

“38% of Voters Think Biden Has Dementia"

Those 38% to 40% of Americans do not have to vote for Biden. Furthermore replacing Biden now would look like a Democrat Party weakness virtually guaranteeing Trump wins.

Due to the three dysfunctional factors and no upper age limit, the dangerously ignorant and irresponsible Trump is the only alternative Americans can vote for.

Another possible problem is the Electoral College System see "Top 3 Pros and Cons".

Pete

V-22 Osprey Distraction for Indonesian Military - Aussie Ospreys?

The article of July 9, 2020 concerned the US State Department approving the sale of 8 MV-22 Ospreys to Indonesia. Why did the State Department, seemingly out of nowhere, approve the sale? 

1.  I'd say at this stage the US Osprey offer to Indonesia may have been the US providing a face saving distraction to cover air crash embarrassments suffered by the Indonesian military leadership. In the context of a COVID-19 caused shortfall of US$500 million in the Indonesian defence budget it was/is highly unlikely Indonesia could afford the "estimated cost of [US]$2 billion". 

See "The [Osprey] approval came after [Indonesia] saw two of its military aircraft crashed in less than two weeks amid its efforts to revamp its aging weaponry." writes the Jakarta Globe, July 8, 2020 at https://jakartaglobe.id/news/us-approves-2b-osprey-aircraft-sale-to-indonesia

concerning

"Indonesia's Defense Modernization Gains Momentum After Two Air Crashes in Nine Days" Jakarta Globe, June 15, 2020, which reports https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesias-defense-modernization-gains-momentum-after-two-air-crashes-in-nine-days/

"The British-made Hawk 209 jet was on a training mission from the Roesmin Nurjadin Airbase in Pekanbaru when it crashed at 8.13 a.m., the Air Force said."

"The accident occurred only nine days after a fatal Army helicopter crash in the Central Java town of Kendal killed five of nine personnel on board.

..."Seeing our military planes crash not during wartime is certainly not nice. Other countries are watching us very closely," said Muradi, the chairman of Padjadjaran University's School of Security and Political Studies."

""These accidents should offer momentum [to the Indonesian Air Force] to replace their aging aircraft. The government must speed up efforts to acquire or manufacture new and more competitive aircraft," he said in Jakarta."

..."While aircraft procurement takes years to materialize, a thorough audit on the weaponry system can start without delay to prevent future accidents, according to Willy Aditya, a lawmaker with the House of Representative's defense commission.

"An audit on our defense system is a matter of urgency right now. All defense equipment and system in the TNI, including military aircraft, must be reviewed to see if they are still compatible with current conditions. The double accidents in recent days must caution us all," Willy said"...

see whole article https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesias-defense-modernization-gains-momentum-after-two-air-crashes-in-nine-days/

Pete Comment: So the headline "will Indonesia buy Ospreys from the US or not?" puts the memory of the 2 air crashes in the shade, to an extent.

2.  If Indonesia bought Ospreys then the Australian military would argue it justifies an Australian purchase. This would be for special forces (eg. SAS) landing or rappelling insertion operations over distances and at speeds that available helicopters cannot handle.

Also Australia's Canberra-class LPDs could use Ospreys for “marine” style army insertions inland.

As far back as 2016 US Marine Corps MV-22B Ospreys were making trial landings on Australian Canberra-class LPDs.

A US Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey doing a deck landing on HMAS Canberra LHD, in 2016.

---

 See Australian Aviation, July 15, 2016 at https://australianaviation.com.au/2016/07/first-v-22-osprey-lands-on-australian-lhd/  :

“A United States Marine Corps (USMC) MV-22B Osprey tiltrotor has conducted six deck landings on board HMAS Canberra while the ship was taking part in Exercise...RIMPAC 2016 off the north-east coast of Hawaii.

The landings on July 12, conducted as part of a US Navy and USMC aviation integration program to clear its rotary-wing assets for operations from the Royal Australian Navy’s new amphibious assault ships, mark the first time a V-22 has landed on board an Australian LHD.

Sistership to HMAS Canberra and Adelaide, the Spanish Navy’s Juan Carlos I, has operated MV-22s on board over the past year, including an embarkation of the type.

The Canberra will likely see Marine Corps AH-1Z Viper, UH-1Y, UH-1Z and potentially CH-53 helicopters cross its deck during the course of the five-week-long exercise, but F-35B and AV-8B “jump jets” are not part of the integration program.”

US Marines rappelling and fast rope training from MV-22 Osprey in this Video (and see it above)

--- 

PETE COMMENT

Judging by Juan Carlos I LHD's capabilities if Australia were to buy Ospreys for Australia's two LHDs I’d say they may need 4 to operate off each vessel. Also 3 Ospreys would be needed for on-shore training as well as 3 for covert special forces missions (perhaps in the Middle East/

Afghanistan theatre and elsewhere in the medium term).

So Australia would need around 14 Ospreys, plus all the spares, training and on-going modifications/upgrades required.

"No Bonfire!" Fire on USS Bonhomme Richard, Naval Base San Diego, 21 injured

AP via Australia’s Government owned ABC News reports July 13, 2020, 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-13/us-naval-ship-fire-leaves-21-injured-uss-bonhomme-richard/12448428 :

“Fire on US naval ship USS Bonhomme Richard [LHD-6] docked at San Diego port leaves 21 injured”

"An explosion and fire on board a ship at a naval base in the United States have injured 21 people.

Key points:

-  The cause of the fire is still under investigation
-  The ship was undergoing routine maintenance at the time
-  About 160 sailors were on board.

The blaze at Naval Base San Diego in California was reported shortly before 9am on July 12, 2020 (California time/date) on USS Bonhomme Richard, US Navy spokesman Mike Raney said.

Seventeen sailors and four civilians were taken to hospital with "non-life threatening injuries", Mr Raney said in a brief statement.

Officials earlier said at least one person was treated for smoke inhalation.

The cause of the fire was under investigation and it was not immediately known where on the 255-metre amphibious assault vessel the blast and fire occurred.

The flames sent up a huge plume of dark smoke, visible around San Diego.

San Diego is the Bonhomme Richard's home port and it was undergoing routine maintenance at the time of the fire.

About 160 sailors and officers were on board, Mr Raney said — far fewer than the thousand typically on the ship when on active duty.

...Two other docked ships, USS Fitzgerald and [destroyer] USS Russell, were moved to berths away from the fire, Mr Raney said."

[Pete Comment: USS Fitzgerald was one of the two US destroyers involved in major collisions in 2017.]

Firefighting boats spray water onto the US Navy amphibious assault ship USS Bonhomme Richard.        (Above photo courtesy Reuters: Bing Guan).

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Fox News Youtube Video Possible welding accident?
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No Bonfire!

Trump cups his own.

This poem concerning Trump's: abuse of power; abortive handling of the Coronavirus threat; failure to make his tax records public; and, manifest sleaziness, is explained by the poem's bolded links:

Trump freeing crooks a disease

Democracy falls on its knees
Might Trump contract Coronavirus
Or fall to the I.R.S.
To end Trump's egotistical sleaze?