The article of July 9, 2020 concerned the US State Department approving the sale of 8 MV-22 Ospreys to Indonesia. Why did the State Department, seemingly out of nowhere, approve the sale?
Pete Comment: So the headline "will Indonesia buy Ospreys from the US or not?" puts the memory of the 2 air crashes in the shade, to an extent.
PETE COMMENT
1. I'd say at this stage the US Osprey offer to
Indonesia may have been the US providing
a face saving distraction to cover air crash embarrassments suffered by the Indonesian military leadership. In the context of a COVID-19 caused shortfall of US$500 million in the Indonesian defence budget it was/is highly unlikely Indonesia could afford the "estimated cost of [US]$2 billion".
See
"The [Osprey] approval came after [Indonesia] saw two of its military aircraft
crashed in less than two weeks amid its efforts to revamp its aging
weaponry." writes the Jakarta Globe, July 8, 2020 at https://jakartaglobe.id/news/us-approves-2b-osprey-aircraft-sale-to-indonesia
concerning
"Indonesia's
Defense Modernization Gains Momentum After Two Air Crashes in Nine Days"
Jakarta Globe, June 15, 2020, which reports https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesias-defense-modernization-gains-momentum-after-two-air-crashes-in-nine-days/
"The
British-made Hawk 209 jet was on a training mission from the Roesmin Nurjadin
Airbase in Pekanbaru when it crashed at 8.13 a.m., the Air Force said."
"The
accident occurred only nine days after a fatal Army helicopter crash in the
Central Java town of Kendal killed five of nine personnel on board.
..."Seeing
our military planes crash not during wartime is certainly not nice. Other
countries are watching us very closely," said Muradi, the chairman of
Padjadjaran University's School of Security and Political Studies."
""These
accidents should offer momentum [to the Indonesian Air Force] to replace their
aging aircraft. The government must speed up efforts to acquire or manufacture
new and more competitive aircraft," he said in Jakarta."
..."While
aircraft procurement takes years to materialize, a thorough audit on the
weaponry system can start without delay to prevent future accidents, according
to Willy Aditya, a lawmaker with the House of Representative's defense
commission.
"An
audit on our defense system is a matter of urgency right now. All defense
equipment and system in the TNI, including military aircraft, must be reviewed
to see if they are still compatible with current conditions. The double
accidents in recent days must caution us all," Willy said"...
see
whole article https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesias-defense-modernization-gains-momentum-after-two-air-crashes-in-nine-days/
Pete Comment: So the headline "will Indonesia buy Ospreys from the US or not?" puts the memory of the 2 air crashes in the shade, to an extent.
2. If
Indonesia bought Ospreys then the Australian military would argue it justifies an
Australian purchase. This
would be for special forces (eg. SAS) landing or rappelling insertion operations
over distances and at speeds that available helicopters cannot handle.
Also Australia's Canberra-class LPDs could use Ospreys for “marine” style army insertions inland.
As
far back as 2016 US Marine Corps MV-22B Ospreys were making trial landings on Australian Canberra-class LPDs.
A US Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey doing a deck landing on HMAS Canberra LHD, in 2016.
---
See Australian Aviation, July 15, 2016 at https://australianaviation.com.au/2016/07/first-v-22-osprey-lands-on-australian-lhd/ :
“A United States Marine Corps (USMC) MV-22B Osprey tiltrotor has conducted six deck landings on board HMAS Canberra while
the ship was taking part in Exercise...RIMPAC 2016 off the
north-east coast of Hawaii.
The
landings on July 12, conducted as part of a US Navy and USMC aviation
integration program to clear its rotary-wing assets for operations from the Royal Australian Navy’s new amphibious assault ships, mark the first time a V-22 has landed on board an
Australian LHD.
Sistership to HMAS Canberra and Adelaide, the Spanish Navy’s Juan Carlos I, has operated MV-22s on board over the past
year, including an embarkation of the type.
The Canberra will likely see
Marine Corps AH-1Z Viper, UH-1Y, UH-1Z and potentially CH-53 helicopters cross
its deck during the course of the five-week-long exercise, but F-35B and
AV-8B “jump jets” are not part of the integration program.”
US Marines rappelling and fast rope training from MV-22 Osprey in this Video (and see it above)
---
PETE COMMENT
Judging by Juan Carlos I LHD's capabilities if
Australia were to buy Ospreys for Australia's two LHDs I’d say they may need 4 to operate off each vessel. Also 3 Ospreys would be
needed for on-shore training as well as 3 for covert special forces missions
(perhaps in the Middle East/
Afghanistan theatre and elsewhere in the medium
term).
So
Australia would need around 14 Ospreys, plus all the spares, training and
on-going modifications/upgrades required.
2 comments:
With budgets being stretched across the board by new purchases including Land 400, the new frigates and submarines, F-35A and Loyal Wingman, the DoD will need to consider whether the difference in capability is worth inducting a totally new platform into the fleet, over range extensions to the CH-47D/SD and NH90s, and new purchases of the same. The Ospreys are tremendously maintenance intensive owing to the dual articulated nacelle and rotor design, compared to such platforms as the Chinook.
Indonesia has had a longstanding requirement for aircraft and maritime vessels which are able to rapidly transit and fight onto her thousands of far flung islands, and also into islands on the vigourously disputed Natuna Sea. While I doubt those 8 Ospreys will be effective for the time being, there is a sound a priori justification for their purchase.
A more pressing concern for Australia might be how to replace the capability from the soon-to-be retired Eurocopter Tigres, and how to permit longer range operations using her existing helo fleet. One example would be expanding the aerial refuelling capability of helicopter and jet assets. Furthermore, the V-22 is quite an "overt" platform. The DoD will have to consider whether the capabilities provided by the TNI-AD's new helicopters might be addressed in a different way, and whether its special forces delivery mode really needs such a heavy investment.
Hi retortPouch
I couldn't agree with you more.
I'd also add more items to Australia's new defence hardware bill: Australia's new Triton MQ-4C High Altitude UAVs, making all 3 Air Warfare Destroyers operational, building Australia's 12 to 14 Arafura-class offshore patrol vessels, need to replace the A$1 billion Tiger project failure and many other buys in the A$270 Billion defence package announced July 1, 2020 (see https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/07/fear-of-china-us-isolationism-drive-up.html ).
All these Australian defence buys come during the 2020 economic shock of up to A$400 Billion in COVID-19 economic stimulus and increased health/testing/quarantine costs.
So any Australian consideration for Ospreys would by an arms race, national price (more specifically service pride) motivation to match any actual Indonesian purchase.
I don't think Indonesia would choose to effectively pay US$250 million for each of 8 Ospreys in the US$2 Billion price tag. This is given Indonesia (for each Osprey) could probably buy and maintain 2 Indonesian built/assembled medium helicopters and one light transport fixed wing aircraft.
Cheers
Pete
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