1. Without COVID-19 cases isolation, traveller
quarantine and social distancing COVID-19 cases will by-far-overwhelm the
number of Australian Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds used for all types of
diseases and accidents of people of all ages.
ICU wards are always heavily used/catered for - for all causes eg. mother's birth complications, infant illnesses, heart cases of 50 year old men,
post cancer surgery, increased normal flu cases (right now) in the Southern Hemisphere Winter and accidents.
Unlike severe flu viruses and earlier covid
viruses COVID-19 doesn't make most spreaders really ill. Without
isolation-quarantine measures COVID-19 spreads quickly in a comparatively
undetectable way.
2. Source: the
Medical Journal of Australia "Surge capacity of Australian intensive careunits associated with COVID-19 admissions" March 30, 2020 at
This is the simple but deadly numbers game:
- There are 191 ICUs in Australia with available ICU beds =
2,378
Maximal estimate surge of ICU beds (an 191% increase) =
4,258
This surge would require:
- a 325% increase in senior doctors = 4,092
and
- a 365% increase in ICU nurses = 42,720
3. Source:
Australian Government "IMPACT OF COVID-19: Theoretical modelling of how
the
health system can respond" at
health system can respond" at
(i) modelling of an uncontrolled COVID-19 outbreak requires
ICU beds = 35,000
(which would greatly
exceed Australia’s expanded/surge capacity of less than 7,000 beds)
(ii) With cases isolation and quarantine, demand is reduced
to ICU beds = 17,000
(still well above expanded/surge ICU bed capacity).
(iii) With isolation, quarantine and social distancing daily ICU demand is a containable number of less than 5,000 people.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
So without COVID-19 cases isolation, traveller quarantine
and social distancing COVID-19 cases will by-far-overwhelm the number of
Australian ICU beds used for all types of diseases and accidents of people of all ages.
Pete
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