New Intel on India's Agni-P: one day Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile

Gessler, in 4 comments on Sept 1 and 2, 2021, has provided an excellent collection of new details and links on India’s Agni-P (aka Agni-Prime aka Agni-1P). The Agni-P might one day be the central element of a working anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) system. Pete has done some editing. A Wikipedia file on the Agni-P has fewer details.  Gessler advises:

In June 2021 India tested Agni-P, previously called Agni-1P. The old "Agni-1P" name is misleading as Agni-P has little in common with India's Agni-1 MRBM of the late 1980s. Agni-P, a DRDO technology demonstration platform, was previously tested in 2011. Its technologies provided input into the Agni-4 and Agni-5 IRBM programs and in turn Agni-P benefited from those programs. Agni-P technology may again act as a precursor - this time for next-generation MRBMs that could eventually replace the Agni-1 and Agni-2 MRBMs in the nuclear Deterrence role. [see this Wiki file on the Agni series of missiles]

The graphic above by Twitter user Mark99xm shows the technological progress (mainly with regard to propulsion and fuel systems, burn efficiency and composite construction) made for ballistic missiles over the last 20 years. Agni-P is roughly half the size and weight of the Agni-2 but achieves a similar range (2,000km) with a similar or greater payload of 1500kg.

Notably, the addition of a new manoeuvring re-entry vehicle (MaRV) system that visibly combines control fins with Divert and Attitude Control System (DACS) thrusters is interesting. The Agni-2 from the 1990s was the first Indian ballistic missile with a MaRV (control fins). The Agni-series missiles that followed switched to a more sophisticated DACS-based MaRV for subsequent systems like the Agni-3 and Agni-5. Even the Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV) anti-ballistic missile, first tested April 2014, and the PDV
Mk-2/XSV-1 Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon tested March 2019 used an evolved DACS. This was used to manoeuvre the Kinetic Kill Vehicle (KKV) onto the 'Mircosat-R' target satellite, understandably a tricky mission. 

Above is an interesting infographic made by Twitter user 'GODOFPARADOXES' of the Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV) interceptor. This is to substantiate the assessment that DACS-based maneuvering of Kill Vehicles/Re-entry Vehicles on Indian missile systems had reached a sufficient level of technology maturity over the last 15 years or so. Gesseler adds "first application of DACS was on the Agni-3 tested in 2006 if I recall correctly".

The maneuverability requirements envisaged for the Agni-P are above and beyond what could be achieved by earlier missiles (which was already substantial). Fins are being brought back to supplement the already proven DACS thrusters. This is possibly to impart a much greater degree of manoeuvrability to the RV than was possible before (with either/or DACS/control fins alone).

This fuels the assumption that the Agni-P may be a precursor to an Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) platform, an Indian equivalent of the Chinese DF-21D/DF-26B. Views from China mix disdain and caution:

"Military commentator Song  Zhongping, a former PLA instructor, said the Agni-P would need further testing to prove its anti-ship capability.

“Hitting a warship with a ballistic missile is a complex systematic project. It takes not only the missile itself, but also many other support systems – such as satellite navigation, terminal target identification, guidance and manoeuvring systems,” he said. “I believe India has this demand and willingness to work hard towards this goal, but it will take time. Although it might not be ready for an anti-ship mission, the Agni-P, with its improved quick response and accuracy, could still greatly strengthen the Indian military’s precision strike capability, according to Song."

India may have, or soon have, the full kill-chain of sensors and shooters to successfully target and destroy hostile carriers and/or surface task forces. 

India’s sensor programs include:

-  high-power Ground based radar systems including Over The Horizon (OTH) radars 
to locate surface task forces

and

-  an established space-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite capability in the form of the RISAT - series satellites to target the surface task forces. These are being enhanced further with several more launches in the coming years:     

“Shooter” elements include:

-  highly manoeuvrable RVs [with options of nuclear and conventional warheads] from future ASBMs to hit carriers and their surface task forces

[-  much sooner anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) including particularly the supersonic BrahMos 1s] 

Gessler has used an online map-distance calculator to plot out the possible 2,000km hit radius (above and see https://ibb.co/QXwTH86 ) from an Agni-P ASBM launched from a TEL positioned on one of the southern-most islands in India's Andaman and Nicobar island chain against carrier groups. This indicates an ASBM positioned on these islands could potentially target task forces transiting through the Malacca Strait, Singapore Strait (less likely) or even the Sunda Strait:

India is already in possession of IRBMs reaching up to a range of 5,000km like the Agni-5. Chinese commentators have maintained since 2012 that an Agni-5 is capable of up to 8,000km [with a lighter throw weight/warhead] therefore an ICBM. These ranges may expand further, depending on the type of missile system that could emerge (Agni-P in of itself is unlikely to be anything but a technology-demonstrator).

Indian ASBMs may prove to be a crucial part of India's strategy to deter Chinese task force incursion into the Indian Ocean Region in times of war. ASBMs may even be a key part in protecting the shores of mainland India (or more likely, the Andaman and Nicobar islands) from hostile amphibious warfare groups. This is in the event China deems capturing the Andaman and Nicobar islands is the only way to ensure China’s crucial trade transit routes are protected. China taking those islands may also permit China to interfere with the Quad's SOSUS (and other undersea sensor) array, perhaps assumed to hinder China’s Indo-Pacific submarine operations.

India’s NaVIC satellite-based navigation system is equivalent to the US created GPS and China’s BeiDou, etc. NaVIC is already deployed and in operation. One look at the coverage area tells us all we need to know.

Pete Comment

There is a lot of new information Gessler has expertly integrated. Gessler mentions whether Agni-P may be a technology program and not a mature weapon system. I also share that view. If India claims it still has not yet developed multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) then I doubt India can develop working robust ASBMs this side of 2030.