Pete comment - Yet again South Koreans fail to appreciate how some Japanese journalists, maybe Takabumi Suzuoki(?) know more about South Korea's strategic imperatives than South Koreans do. And Americans know more than South Koreans as well.
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Anonymous kindly provided the comment below on August 30, 2021:
"The withdrawal US troops from Afghanistan shows serious impact on South Korea [1, 2]. Behaviour of South Korea toward USA resembles that of Afghanistan [1, 3, 4].
[1] https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2021/08271701/?all=1
South Korea is protected by USA, but, it does no
[2] https://www.chosun.com/international/us/2021/08/17/GC3YEOUE6BDMNNJEKV6DW3MARE/
“Afghanistan's reality... If it does not serve the
national interest of the United States, I will leave at any time.”
[3] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/node/1127675
“Why the Taliban Won”
[4] https://www.voakorea.com/korea/korea-politics/us-korea-joint-drill
US experts "Afghanistan crisis reminding South
Korea of the importance of military training... Stop misjudgement between North
Korea and China""
PETE COMMENT
That South Korea spends 2.8% of its GDP on defense and Japan, only 1%, is immaterial. After Japan’s latest period of occupying Korea (1910-1945) Japan’s knows South Korea’s geo-strategic needs better. That South Koreans determine their own attitudes to North Korea and China merely exemplifies South Korea’s adolescent ingratitude to Japan and America.
4 comments:
(Unrelated to the Article)
Regarding a possible Indian anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM)...
Hi Pete, I wish to bring your attention to a particular ballistic missile system that India tested in June this year - the Agni-1 Prime (alternatively known as Agni-Prime): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agni-P
Note that even though it says Agni-1P, the missile has next to nothing in common with the Agni-1 MRBM of late 1980s, and instead seems to be an evolutionary development of the Agni-3 & Agni-5 IRBMs. Personally, I think the A-1P is a technology demonstration platform that's designed to validate several new technologies before they go into deployable missile systems. The last time a "Prime" was tested was in 2011, and the technologies demonstrated therein eventually found application in the Agni-4 and Agni-5 IRBMs that emerged in the months & year that followed. So the new Prime may again prove to be a precursor for next-generation MRBMs that could eventually replace the Agni-1 & Agni-2 MRBMs in the Deterrence role.
This graphic made by Twitter user 'Mark99xm' shows the technological progress (mainly with regard to propulsion & fuel systems, burn efficiency & composite construction) made in the realm of ballistic missiles over the last 20 years - the Agni-1P is roughly half the size & weight (approximately) of the Agni-2 but achieves a similar range (2,000-km) with a similar if not greater payload (1500-kg):
https://twitter.com/Mark99xm/status/1411399550372253697
Notably, the addition of a new MaRV (maneuvering re-entry vehicle) system that visibly combines control fins with Divert & Attitude Control System (DACS) thrusters is interesting. The Agni-2 from the 1990s was the first Indian ballistic missile with a MaRV (control fins), the Agni-series missiles that followed switched to a more sophisticated DACS-based MaRV for subsequent systems like the Agni-3 & Agni-5. Even the PDV Anti-Ballistic Missile first tested in April 2014 and the PDV Mk-2/XSV-1 Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon tested in March 2019 used an evolved DACS system to maneuver the Kinetic Kill Vehicle (KKV) onto the 'Mircosat-R' target satellite, understandably a tricky mission. An interesting infographic made by Twitter user 'GODOFPARADOXES' regarding the system:
https://twitter.com/GODOFPARADOXES/status/1424375955179573252
What's interesting is that the Agni-1P is the first time the control fins are being brought back to supplement the already-proven DACS thrusters - possibly in order to impart a much greater degree of maneuverability to the RV than was possible before (with either/or DACS/control fins alone).
This fuels the assumption that the Agni-1P may be a precursor to a Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) platform, an Indian equivalent of the Chinese DF-21D/DF-26B. There have been some reports dealing with the Chinese view of the test, laced with equal parts disdain & cautiousness:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3139421/indias-latest-agni-p-missile-no-great-threat-china-experts
Notably:
"Military commentator Song Zhongping, a former PLA instructor, said the Agni-P would need further testing to prove its anti-ship capability.
“Hitting a warship with a ballistic missile is a complex systematic project. It takes not only the missile itself, but also many other support systems – such as satellite navigation, terminal target identification, guidance and manoeuvring systems,” he said. “I believe India has this demand and willingness to work hard towards this goal, but it will take time. Although it might not be ready for an anti-ship mission, the Agni-P, with its improved quick response and accuracy, could still greatly strengthen the Indian military’s precision strike capability, according to Song."
Continued...
...Continued from above
With several programs underway for high-power land-based radar systems (to include OTH radars: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-horizon_radar#India) and an established space-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite capability in the form of the RISAT-series satellites (which is being enhanced further with several more launches slated for the coming years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RISAT)...India may either already have, in the process of having, or capable of having within the foreseeable future - the full kill-chain of sensors & shooters to successfully target & destroy hostile Aircraft Carriers and/or Surface Task Forces, namely:
a) Ground-based OTH radars to locate the surface group
b) Space-based SAR radars to target the surface group
c) Highly maneuverable RV on ASBM to execute the targeted surface group
I have used an online map-distance calculator to plot out the possible radius within which a Agni Prime-based ASBM with similar range (2,000-km) can potentially target Carrier groups when the TEL (transporter, erector, launcher) is positioned on one of the southern-most islands in India's Andaman & Nicobar island chain. As evident, an ASBM positioned on these islands could potentially target hostile task forces transiting through the Malacca Strait, Singapore Strait (less likely) or even the Sunda Strait:
https://ibb.co/QXwTH86
Considering India is already in possession of IRBMs reaching up to a range of 5,000-km like the Agni-5 (which Chinese commentators have maintained since 2012 that it's capable of up to 8,000-km therefore an ICBM: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Agni-V-China-tries-to-provoke-Agni-V-fear-says-it-can-hit-Europe/articleshow/12752380.cms) these ranges may expand further, depending on the type of missile system that could emerge (like I said, Agni-1P in of itself is unlikely to be anything but a technology-demonstrator).
Indian ASBMs may prove to be a crucial part of India's strategy to deter Chinese task force incursion into the Indian Ocean Region in times of war, and even be a key part in protecting the shores of mainland India (or more likely, the A&N islands) from hostile amphibious warfare groups - in the event China deems that capturing the A&N islands is the only way to ensure that their crucial trade transit routes are protected, if not ensuring that the Quad SOSUS array doesn't hinder their submarine operations.
Would love to hear your views on the same.
A few more infographics regarding the MaRV on the Agni-Prime, made by the same 'GODOFPARADOXES' handle (also known by the 'DFI-PK' moniker):
https://ibb.co/fNtMNLd
https://ibb.co/yfkvcjH
Cheers
Oh and I forgot - another key component of the kill-chain would be a satellite-based navigation system, equivalent of the American GPS, Russian GLONASS, European GALILEO or Chinese BeiDou.
The Indian version, originally known as IRNSS and now called NaVIC, is already deployed and in operation, and one look at the coverage area tells us all we need to know:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Regional_Navigation_Satellite_System
Coverage:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Regional_Navigation_Satellite_System#/media/File:IRNSS_Coverage_Polygon.png
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