South Korean SLBMs Possibly Nuclear One Day

South Korea's new KSS-3 SSB, with it nuclear weapons potential and talk of future SK SSBNs amount to major Northeast Asian nuclear proliferation matters. There are implications for all counties in the region, especially for nuclear-have-not-yets Japan and Taiwan. So I hope readers have not become bored with all the articles about these matters  over the last week.

Pete Comment

The KSS-3's AIP will give it the ability to cruise fully submerged for at least 21 days or sit motionless on the seafloor for at least 30 days. In that period one KSS-3 can act as a deterrent threat to North Korea. As SK makes more KSS-3s (perhaps six of them) there will always be one or two KSS-3s sitting on the seafloor ready to perform a first or second strike on North Korea. 

The link between SLBMs and nuclear potential is being increasingly expressed, in seeming concurrence with my own views in articles on September 8,  7,  3, 2021, August 31, 2021,  July 6, 2021,  September 19, 2018 and July 14, 2017  by writers.

ARTICLE

The following are parts of an excellent article, of September 8/9, 2021, by Reuters' Josh Smith, who, in turn, quotes other writers: 

"Analysis: S.Korea blazes new path with 'most potent' conventional missile submarine"

•                     Submarine-launched ballistic missile tested last week

•                     S.Korea only country without nuclear weapons to field SLBM

•                     Missile designed to target bunkers, leadership in N.Korea

•                     New missile raises questions about nuclear goals – analysts

SEOUL, Sept 8 (Reuters) - South Korea's development of a conventional submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is a ground-breaking move, analysts said, with implications for North Korea, the U.S. alliance, and even the prospect of nuclear weapons in South Korea.

Last week, South Korea conducted ejection tests of the SLBM from its recently launched Dosan Ahn Chang-ho KSS-III submarine, Yonhap news agency reported, showcasing a unique capability. It is the only nation to field such weapons without nuclear warheads. read more

Seoul says the conventionally armed missile is designed to help counter any attack by North Korea. Analysts say the unusual weapon also checks many other boxes, including reducing South Korea's reliance on the United States and providing a foundation if it ever decided to pursue a nuclear arsenal.

South Korea's ministry of defence declined to confirm the tests, but said it is pursuing upgraded missile systems to counter North Korea.

South Korea's sub-launched missile, believed to be a variant of the country's ground-based Hyunmoo-2B ballistic missile, with a flight range of about 500 kilometres (311 miles), is smaller than the nuclear-tipped SLBMs developed by the North.

...Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.[says]  "The SLBM is nominally justified in these terms, granting South Korean planners a highly survivable conventional second strike option in the face of North Korean attack; these missile systems would punish North Korea's leadership in the case of an attack on the south,"

...Although submarine-launched ballistic missiles are usually associated with nuclear weapons, that does not mean South Korea has them or is pursuing them, he said.

"However, should the alliance with the United States fray in the future or South Korea's national defences needs drastically shift, these SLBMs would provide an immediately available foundation for a limited, survivable nuclear force," he added.

A Political Issue

For now it is just an academic debate, but one that has made its way into the current South Korean presidential campaign, with some conservative candidates arguing that the country should seek a nuclear deterrent either on its own or by hosting American weapons, as some NATO allies do.

The United States removed its battlefield nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991, but has continued to protect its ally under a "nuclear umbrella."

But recent years were tumultuous for the U.S.-South Korea alliance, with then-U.S. President Donald Trump pressing Seoul to pay more for the American military presence there, and even suggesting that countries, including South Korea and Japan, may need to develop their own nuclear weapons.

“It is unrealistic to prevent us from our own nuclear armament when North Korea has not given up its nuclear weapons yet," presidential candidate Yoo Seung-min said last month.

The SLBM programme doesn't appear to be part of elaborate plan to hedge toward nuclear weapons, said Joshua Pollack, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who co-wrote a report last year warning that advances in conventional missiles in both Koreas have helped create a new pathway for a crisis.

"It simply looks like South Korea is trying to catch up with North Korea," he said. "For decades, each side has been determined to show that it is more advanced and capable."

...Later [in 2019] North Korea said it had successfully test-fired a new SLBM from the sea, and in January [2021] it showcased a new SLBM design during a military parade in Pyongyang.

One Western diplomatic source said it was likely that other countries would follow South Korea's lead.

So far the test launch has not elicited public responses from officials in North Korea, Japan, China or other nearby countries, but South Korea’s neighbours are bound to ask tough questions, Pollack said.

"The loser here is the entire region, in the throes of a multi-sided missile race," he said.

Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle.”