The AUKUS agreement effectively removes the legal taboo of the US or UK exporting 93+% weapons grade nuclear reactor HEU to Australia. By this taboo removal this trends toward legitimizing nuclear submarine propulsion for South Korea.
For years and as recently as late August 29, 2021 South Korea has been raising the idea of nuclear propelled South Korean subs.
In November 2017 South Korea's President raised the idea with President Trump of South Korea purchasing a US nuclear propelled attack submarine (SSN).
Also see further references to nuclear propelled South Korean subs called "KSS-Ns" here.
11 comments:
So nuclear submarines planned or under consideration by India, AUKUS, South Korea. (Japan being obvious exception so far.) Arms race in Indo-Pacific seems warming up. If this is about China containment, the diplomatic element (mutual defense agreements) are still unknown. Also unknown if the containment will offer any protection to Taiwan.
NPT impact is also interesting, but if enough parties decide HEU propulsion is OK, NPT is in effect redefined (globally) to exclude sealed reactor units. (Any unenforced treaty obligations become moot.)
I would not be surprised if the next South Korean follow on submarine with 10 VLS, which will be larger than 3000-ton, ends up with an LEU reactor, say from France. In truth, both South Korea and Japan have the technical know how to design and build their own naval nuclear reactor. Although both countries do not have the need for their submarines to travel far, an SSN eliminates the need for refueling in case of conflicts.
One question I have is when will we see a Soryu improved with 10 VLS? It cannot be far off.
KQN
Regarding the NPT, there are various articles under the title "Nuclear inspection under AUKUS deal 'very tricky' - IAEA chief" (e.g. https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/defence-and-foreign-affairs/nuclear-inspection-under-aukus-deal-very-tricky-iaea-chief/news-story/1e5b391af8622cbc9450f181c1a28047).
"Mr Grossi [IAEA Director General] confirmed NPT signatories can exclude nuclear material from IAEA inspection while that material is fueling a submarine – a rare exception to the agency’s supervision of nuclear materials."
It seems this is already defined, and won't require redefining the NPT.
Hi KQN,
I think a 4-6 VLS on a Taigei class as a 10 m plug-in is certainly possible. The problem is despite loopholes in the 'pacifist constitution' on defensive first strikes on a known enemy, mounting n-armed tomahawks or even conventional intermediate range missiles (1000-2000 km range) on Japanese submarines will need 2/3 majority in the Diet and approval by the Emperor...as things stand today....it is an highly unlikely thing to happen...
The chinese have fed and raised one of their two pet 'rabid' canines precisely for such an eventuality (North Korea with the other rabid canine being pakistan)... I don't see Japanese political decision makers get over that inhibition and also getting any closer to amending the constitution...
I wish I had a crystal ball to gaze!
Loophole related article
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200709/p2a/00m/0na/001000c
Hi KQN and Ghalib
As Japan's regional neighbours (China, North Korea and "frenemy" South Korea) have built VLS and all are Ballistic missile capable, a Japanese Taigei SSB with VLS may be more justifiable. Justifiable to Japan's public, political center and to Japan's US ally.
Such a Japanese sub can more comfortably sit within the Peace Constitution IF it is considered an intrisically Defensive SECOND strike weapon.
That Second strike means Deterrent, implicitly nuclear tipped missiles, need not be spelled out by Japan.
VLS, with cruise and especially Ballistic moves to being capability precursor.
Japan, like America's reliant state, Israel, can maintain a stance of Ambiguity.
Also Ballistic are very useful for First strike which Japan also need not discuss.
Pete
There are plus & minuses in fitting VLS to an attack submarine (SSK or SSN). It should be noted that both France & UK SSN’s carry long range land attack missiles, but neither use VLS. VLS means that you always have a certain number of missiles ready to fire & torpedo tubes can still launch missiles or be loaded for defence in case your missiles attract unwanted attention. However VLS are one shot wonders & have limited weapon options. They also can’t be reloaded from within the submarine. Torpedo tubes can be reloaded & can be used to launch a range of weapons. If your mission is such that long range land attack missiles are not required, you are basically wasting 10m of your submarine. You can also carry more weapons horizontally (& of any type) in that same 10 meters than you can in VLS tubes.
Hi Anonymous [Oct 2, 2021, 9:23:00 PM]
VLS need not necessarily be Tomahawk specific and single shot.
What I have in mind is Astute Mark 2s or Aus Virginia's having 2 multi-shot Virginia Payload Modules https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Virginia_Payload_Module
VPMs can be sub-divided to each carry 7 Tomahawks or a smaller number of fewer, but larger, advancedd cruise missiles or relatively small ballistic missiles.
VPMs can also carry large unmanned undersea vehicles (UUVs), Torpedoes, special forces stores or other loads.
Pete
https://www.fresh.co.il/vBulletin/showthread.php?t=575621 (Google, hebrew) "Bird whispered to me (in German) that submarine "Dragon" (Dolphin2+) was ready and would leave the assembly hall very soon.
As already stated, estimates speak of the largest and most sophisticated submarine ever built in Germany.
Observed for VLS launchers,(VMPL) new AIP system, new sonar, new Warfare Combat System, advanced intelligence means (we may see a mast for launching skimmers), and more... 72 m long and 2500 tons of diving.We will wait for the facts." Sincerely...
Thanks Oleg7700
For the tip at Israeli/Hebrew Forum https://www.fresh.co.il/vBulletin/showthread.php?t=575621 . More specifically that Forum's item "28 #" of time/Date "25-09-2021, 16:27"
right click Translate to English indeed yields:
"Bird whispered to me (in German) that submarine "Dragon" (Dolphin2+) was ready and would leave the assembly hall very soon.
As already stated, estimates speak of the largest and most sophisticated submarine ever built in Germany.
Observed for VLS launchers,(VMPL) new AIP system, new sonar, new Warfare Combat System, advanced intelligence means (we may see a mast for launching skimmers), and more... 72 m long and 2500 tons of diving.We will wait for the facts."
PETE COMMENT
If "VLS launchers,(VMPL)" is accurate this is in accord with my long held assumption that TKMS helped South Korea with the design, including VLS, for the KSS-3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dosan_Ahn_Changho-class_submarine .
Hence TKMS has the knowledge to maybe fit VLS to the last of Israel's Dolphin 2s (the Dragon / "Drakon" ) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine#Submarines_in_class with VLS/VMPL.
The West's No. 1 VLS experts, the US, may have assisted TKMS (and, by extension, South Korea and Israel) with the VLS fitout.
Regards
Pete
Mr. Fang- Director of the Israeli Army and Security Forum. (censored)
Exclusive from Frank Behling (IMHO... https://twitter.com/kieldolphin) and "Kieler Nachrichten".) They are friends and colleagues. Regards аnd shalom from Tel-Aviv. Oleg7700
Thanks Oleg7700 [your Oct 5, 2021, 1:59:00 AM]
Vive la Israel! :)
Pete
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