Australia's improved strategic response to China from AUKUS, especially a future nuclear propelled submarine aspect, are much needed virtues.
There are also domestic political ramifications within Australia. The nuke sub intention has occurred in the runup to Australia’s next Federal Election to be held by on, or before, May 21, 2022. "Wedging" means politically dividing in Australian parlance.
Australia’s Morrison Liberal-National Coalition Government would be fully aware that to further the sub intention, from the Australian end, the Coalition Government needs to stay in office. In the past the Australian Labor Party (ALP) opposition has been indecisive in pushing through naval building projects and opposed to anything vaguely nuclear, let alone nuclear propulsion for submarines.
If the ALP won the next Election this may threaten the CURRENT Australian government's nuclear submarine intentions. The creation of AUKUS has not finalized an Australian nuclear submarine program. The submarine program will be under negotiation with the US and UK until 2023, if not longer. The program may never occur. Many in the ALP also see Australia's AUKUS reliance on the US and UK as impinging on Australia's foreign policy autonomy or sovereignty.
It is highly significant that the Coalition is running behind the ALP, by a wide margin, in opinion polls.
The Coalition Government, by establishing a nuke sub future under AUKUS:
- has been wedging the traditionally ant-nuclear ALP Left from the pro-Jobs and Economic Growth ALP Center-Right faction.
- is compromising the leftwing ant-nuclear principles of the ALP’s Leader, Anthony Albanese, who has always had a tenuous hold leading the ALP.
- is adding to Albanese’s discomfiture to the benefit of Bill Shorten, of Labor’s Center-Right faction, who still covets the job of being ALP Leader.
and
- is wedging the ALP from the strongly anti-nuclear, leftwing Greens Party, whose support is often required for the ALP to win power and govern.
All this means is that fewer leftwing Australian voters will likely vote for the ALP in the coming Election to be held by May 2022.
A major risk is, if the ALP wins the next Federal Election (with help from the Greens) then this may effectively cancel the (future) Australian nuclear submarine deal!
7 comments:
Hi Pete
Global Times (designated as a foreign mission by US Department of State) threatened Australia.
China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership should be never admitted.
[1] https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=ja&sl=zh-CN&u=https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2021-09-16/doc-iktzqtyt6360708.shtml&prev=search&pto=aue (September 16, 2021 15:39 Global Times, “Since Australia is going to show up in the limelight, then ask them to prepare for the worst”)
“When Australia participates in the strategic containment of China organized by the United States, it should maintain self-knowledge and stand in a position commensurate with its strength. If it serves the purpose of loyal to the United States and makes trouble in the most prominent anti-China position, especially in the military, then it is most likely to become China’s target for counterattack and containment, and the first Western soldiers to die in the South China Sea are also the most. It may be Australian.”
Regards
You will let without any modern submarine ...
Thanks Anonymous [at Sep 23, 2021, 3:15:00 PM]
Yes PRC is angry about just about everything non-PRC except about Putin (who has more nuclear weapons than Xi).
Fortunately Japan, India and Australia are all meeting in Washington in the next 48 hours for the Quad Summit.
Xi will be very angry (Spit the Dummy) if the Quad comes up with something substantial. See https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-exactly-is-the-quad-and-whats-on-the-agenda-for-their-washington-summit-167988
Regards
Pete
Hi Anonymous [at Sep 23, 2021, 4:34:00 PM]
Where you say "You will let without any modern submarine ..."
I assume you mean Australia will be left "without any modern submarine"
Australia still has the 6 "modern" Collins which will be Life of Type Entended (LOTE) ie mid-life updated over the next decade for about AU$2 Billion per sub. They should sail on (with some limitations) until 2040 - the Australian Government hopes...
Regards
Pete
The CCP and Global Times are the best mouthpiece for the AUKUS alliance. The only consistent behavior of China is that it is constantly angry and making threats at Australia. The ALP will have to explain to the Australian public why canning the nuclear submarine program is a good idea when faced with such threats.
Brumby
We know that the "Collins" was a Labor initiative, but I cant see Labor going back to "Collins 2.0" though that should have been the case 15 years ago. We would be staring at a A26ER, now being built. Man is the only animal that takes two step backward for every step forward, and still makes progress.
I agree with your analysis, Pete, particularly if, as other commentators have suggested and I agree with, these boats will be either substantially or wholly built abroad.
A laughable-but-not-impossible outcome might be crawling back back to the French and signing up to Barracudas if they can be mostly locally built. To be clear, I don’t consider this a likely outcome.
Overall though, Labour will have to be very brave and/or against a wall to kill this: if they thought the French were pissed wait till they see what jilted Americans will be like...
Footnote: most non Aussies don’t know the colloquial meaning of “root”. Nonetheless, a skilful shaft of risqué humour there.
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