July 1, 2021

Chinese Submarines: Big Modelling Intelligence Gap

Hi everyone (particularly wispywood2344 and Anonymous)

China's dictator Xi Jinping, by his actions and statements, makes China increasingly the enemy of Japan, Australia and the US. Today Xi "hit...at unspecified “foreign forces” and said any external attempts to subjugate [China] would result in “heads bashed bloody against a Great Wall of steel.” Xi said this to the Chinese people and the free world during an hour-long address marking the ruling Communist Party's centenary of its founding.

Thank you for your views in the article Total Cost Table for Japanese Submarine Main Batteries of June 3, 2021 (to which I added the Oyashio-Soryu-Taigei Table) and thank you for your comments below the article. 

We've done good work over the years detailing Japan's submarines, especially their battery formulas, numbers of batteries and their battery arrangements.

As China wants to be increasingly our enemy I'm wondering if we could:

1. Increasingly research and describe China's submarine battery formulas, number of
    batteries and their arrangements

and

2. Build Chinese conventional and nuclear submarine tables (eg. like the Oyashio-Soryu-
    Taigei Table.) 

With America's vast secret and top secret intelligence resources I'm certain the CIA, DIA and NSA would have done 1. and 2. - but I've never seen it. With the open source intelligence available to us we could also do Chinese submarine batteries and submarine tables. These are many Chinese submarine details already available in Submarine Matters articles and the US DoD China Military Power Report 2020 (20MB .PDF) (next one out in September 2021)  which would have much information and pointers to more information. Also many other Chinese submarine details need constant compiling and discussion. 

Additional "intelligence requirements or targets" are Chinese pressure hull steel, electronics, weapons, crew efficiency (on Youtubes), impact of Covid on crews, command arrangements including CCP commissars, nuclear chain of command (re SSBNs), diesels, reactors, seafloor sensors, smart mines, UUVs and much more.

In future more information on the Chinese Yuan-class will leak out from Thailand and especially Pakistan as they will be receiving export variants of the Yuan and their security standards are more relaxed than China's.

There is fortunately much more detail on Russian subs that could be researched and tabulated in parallel.

-----------------------------

As one activity I wonder if calculations could be modelled on the likely battery numbers and arrangements for Yuans with (LABs + AIP) and also LIBs (on the latest Yuans).

Looking at the Table below. For the standard Chinese Yuan variant (with LABs + AIP) this could be based on the Soryu Mk.1's known 480 LABs by comparing submerged displacements of those Soryus and Yuans. This, of course, needs to assume Chinese LABs have the same weight as Japanese LABs.

Japan's Taigei only lists surfaced displacement - so I will not use it in calculations. Assuming LIBs only Soryu Mk.2s have the same submerged displacement as Mk.1s can be used in estimating LIB numbers in future all LIB (no AIP) Yuans. I assume strongly that the Chinese are trialling an all LIBs Yuan or Song class submarine as a technology testbed.

The following is the first attempt at:

Estimating Number of Yuan LABs by Looking At Soryu Mk.1s
 
 

Submarine
Type/Variant

Displacement (submerged)

Number of Batteries

Soryu Mk.1 with LABs + AIP

4,134 long tons/480 LABs = 8.61 long tons per LAB.

480 LABs

Yuan with LABs + AIP

3,500 long tons/8.61

406 LABs

 

 

 

Soryu Mk.2 with LIBs only

4,134 long tons/? LIBs =
?.?? long tons per LIB

??? LIBs

Yuan with LIBs only

3,500 long tons/?.?? 

??? LIBs 

Much modelling with comparisons to Japanese submarines can be used in approximately estimating Chinese submarine characteristics.

Regards

Pete

3 comments:

wispywood2344 said...

Hi Pete.

The dimensions of Chinese LIB "WB-LYP10000AHA", previously reported on SubMatt, are 367*687*756. [1]
These dimensions are generally consistent with the LAB-039(039G) battery replacement photo and the description of the device as being "half the height of a man". [2]
Therefore, the size of the LAB in LAB-039 can be estimated to be approximately the same as that of "WB-LYP10000AHA".
If the volumetric energy density of LAB in LAB-039 is the same as that of SCG, the energy capacity of LAB in LAB-039 will be 12 kWh.

In addition, it is considered that 960 "WB-LYP10000AHA" can be installed in LIB-039. [3]
If the layout of the equipment inside the hull is the same, the volume of the battery compartment of LAB-039 and LIB-039 should be the same, so LAB-039 can carry 960 LAB.

Based on these results, the total energy of LABs in LAB-039 is estimated to be around 11-12 MWh.

However, this estimation is quite unnatural because it implies that the volume of the battery compartment of 039 is larger than that of Oyashio and Soryu Mk.1.
Probably the actual number of batteries on board will be around 400-500.
In my opinion, further detailed discussion would require the cooperation of Chinese speakers.

[1]https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oXwcyclvaA4/VrQnbnGbaJI/AAAAAAAAIK4/qs4vaxAuqfY/s1600/WB-LYP10000AHA-1.png
at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2016/02/chinese-039-submarines-to-use-lithium.html
[2]https://new.qq.com/omn/20210518/20210518A08D2400.html
[3]https://gwl-power.tumblr.com/post/106634862416/winston-battery-wb-lyp10000aha-in-large/amp

Regards

wispywood2344

Pete said...

Hi wispywood2344 [your Jul 4, 2021, 8:31:00 PM comment]

Thanks for commenting.

1. I note you have written:

"...960 "WB-LYP10000AHA" can be installed in LIB-039. [3] If the layout of the equipment inside the hull is the same, the volume of the battery compartment of LAB-039 and LIB-039 should be the same, so LAB-039 can carry 960 LAB."

[BUT you then write] "Probably the actual number of batteries on board will be around 400-500."

So what you finally conclude is in line with what I have said in https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/07/chinese-submarines-big-modelling.html ie:

"Yuan with LABs + AIP" is calculated as having "406 LABs" [that is indeed "around 400-500"]

2. Thanks for "The dimensions of Chinese LIB "WB-LYP10000AHA", previously reported on SubMatt, are 367mm*687mm*756mm."

WHAT WEIGHT OF SUCH A BATTERY WITH THOSE DIMENSIONS WOULD YOU ESTIMATE? I think weight is the most useful comparative measure.

3. Yes I am aware "further detailed discussion would require the cooperation of Chinese speakers."

But, in the more than 10 years Submarine Matters has been operating no PRC Chinese speakers have even been willing to comment on Submarine Matters as Submarine Battery details are a State Secret in China.

So we need to estimate Chinese battery characteristics on what we knew.

Regards

Pete

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

As Chinese submarine is affected by Russian submarine where double hull structure is traditionary adopted, the hull structure of 039 submarine which significantly affects on its battery arrangement should be discussed. The long flank array just above the keel blocks suggests Type 039B has single hull structure [1, 2]. As batteries are arranged single hull section in Soryu submarines, battery arrangement of Soryu and 039 can be compared.

[1] https://news.usni.org/2015/08/31/essay-inside-the-design-of-chinas-yuan-class-submarine (Second picture). Type 039B Yuan-class submarine during rollout at the Jiangnan Shipyard on Changxing Island. Note the long white line in the draft markings, which designates the submarine’s normal surface waterline. Also note the low-frequency passive flank array just above the keel blocks.
[2] The flank array should be directly arranged on the pressure hull.

Regards