Naval Group and LOTE Still Best Sub Solutions for Australia

I am writing in response to Lee McCurtayne's comment of July 4, 2021 regarding future submarine options for Australia.

One problem the Ausralian Government (AusG) has if it wanted to work with SAAB to build a Collins 2 is Australia and Naval Group (NG) have already signed legal contracts to design and build Australia's future Attack class subs. 

The AusG is accountable to taxpayers and voters. As Australia moves toward a Federal Election (on or after August 7, 2021 or on or before May 21, 2022) the AusG does not want to be seen as vacillating over South Australia's very electorally sensitive submarine building industry. Furthermore A$500+ million has already been paid to NG. If a contract was terminated by the AusG then NG could demand at least a A$500 millions breach-of-contract compensation penalty with attendant bad press. Not a good look for the AusG.

In contrast political instability would rule if a Collins 2 was started at this late stage. Nothing has been signed with SAAB-Kockums (or Japan of Germany's TKMS for that matter). Non-NG negotiations, contract signing, design work, construction and testing of a Non-NG future sub might still mean delivery to the RAN after 2030 (maybe simultaneously or even after NG's Attack class).

SAAB's medium sized extended range (ER) A26 is only a paper design. The early ER concept is also likely much smaller (just over 80m long and 3,000+ tonnes) than the large 97m, 4,500 tonne (surfaced) (likely 4,800 tonne submerged) future submarine Australia wants and needs. 

No conventional sub, even an Attack class or Collins 2, would be “Regionally Superior" for Australia. That would take an SSN - with only Naval Group in a position to sell SSNs, in the medium-long term, to Australia. This is  specifically the NG Suffren-Barracuda SSN which has a lower proliferation sensitivity LEU (on dangerous HEU vs LEU scroll 1/6th way down) reactor. 

Meanwhile the only other viable SSN sources, the US and UK, have expressed no serious interest in supplying SSNs to Australia. SSNs are locked up by F-22 like US not-for-export-extreme sensitivity rules. UK reactors based on a US design and US reactors themselves are not for export as they are nuclear proliferation blocked due to their 90+% (bomb grade) HEU fuel cores.

Australia can't afford any "dual build" of Attack class and Collins 2s or to build Attack class while spending the 7+ years to buy an "interim submarine". We can barely afford the Attack class by itself and only have the submarine building facilities for one class at a time. 

As I have said in the past, a viable interim solution is the AusG's long held solution, which will also harness SAAB-Kockums expertise. That is the delayed "life of type extension (LOTE)" which is still not easy or cheap. The LOTE "...will ensure there is no capability gap before the Attack class submarines enter service in the...2030s."