June 29, 2021

Australian Money Useful for Long-Term Nuclear Alliances

What Australia lacks in facing China's massively larger conventional forces AND China's nuclear capability is nuclear armed allies besides the US. Under Trump the US taking its dependent allies for granted was convincingly displayed. After 4 years of Biden Trump could well return in 2024-25. Or perhaps some other US Presidential isolationist, even more alliance-threatening than Trump, could darken international relations.

In part consideration of this Australia has made its two largest naval purchases (France's Attack-class subs and UK Hunter class frigates) as long term alliance sweeteners with (non-US) nuclear allies.  

The France Navy has long sailed its ships into Australia's region (for more than 250 years) and less obviously its subs (since WWII). The medium-long term threat from China is not only to Australia. France sees China as a strategic and neo-colonial threat to France's Indian and Pacific Ocean interests. Hence France has perhaps raised the intensity of its ship and sub flotilla visits.

Australia in part chose the French Naval Group (Attack class) submarines to increase the chances French naval vessels, especially those with a nuclear content like the SSN Émeraude, would visit Australia's region. Within this region the most contested and critical strategic and trade zone is the South China Sea. 

The French Government, which owns Naval Group has its own Indian and Pacific Ocean French overseas island territories, SLOCs and great power status reasons to sail the waters in Australia's region. BUT A$100+ Billions to France over the 60 year life of the Naval Group Attack class Program is also a compelling bilateral economic argument for a closer bilateral strategic alliance with Australia. 

An even more impressive symbol of French naval power allying with Australia's (and broader de facto China Containment Quadrilateral) strategic interests is the visit of the French Mistral-class LHD Tonnerre. The La Fayette-class stealth frigate Surcouf is escorting Tonnerre for training "MISSION JEANNE D'ARC 2021" bilateral and multilateral naval exercises. The Tonnerre led flotilla has been active since early 2021 and will end when Tonnerre and Surcouf return to the French home naval base of Toulon on July 14, 2021 (appropriately Bastille Day).

When Australia chose the French Naval Group (was DCNS) Attack class sub in April 2016, France's nuclear alliance potential was one, unstated, selection factor. Of the others submarine contestants Japan was already locked into (due to its Northeast Asia geography) being a strategic and continuing trade ally of Australia. Germany, represented by TKMS, unlike France, had/has no nuclear weapons to impress China. Also Germany lost the Pacific Ocean island "colonies" in 1914-15 that would have presented an added (or sufficient) reason to visit Australia's region. 

So, to an extent, Australia one day (and perhaps) gaining a nuclear ally, France, was an additional reason for Australia to choose the French submarines in April 2016. Also there is the aspect of encouraging Australia's main nuclear protector, the US, not to take Australia for granted. The US has been the No.1 supplier of weapons to Australia since 1942. So even  US conventional and nuclear protection is underwritten by many Billions of Australian dollars for US arms each year.  

One could draw the bow longer and identify the Type 26 frigate as the basis of the equally huge 9 x 9,000 tonne Australian Hunter class naval order with another potential (UK this time) nuclear ally. This is around A$100+ Billions to Britain over 55 years - a major foreign exchange earner for UK's shaky post-Brexit economy.

The UK is also supporting Australia and the broader Quadrilateral with an UK Carrier Strike Group 21. It is as big as a fleet and led by the large carrier Queen Elizabeth, protected by a UK Astute-class SSN, as well as by surface warships and several supply ships from several nations.

In nuclear ally protection terms international brotherhood doesn't talk. Money talks.

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