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One of China's remaining Type 035 Ming-class conventional submarine soon to be scrapped or sold off to Bangladesh (and other small nations?).
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A Russian built Kilo conventional submarine - main users are Russia, India and China. Vietnam is a growing operator (having bought 6).
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India feels threatened by the prospect of increasing
Chinese submarine proliferation in the Indian Ocean. Such proliferation comes
through such means as:
- Chinese
anti-piracy conventional and nuclear propelled subs moving across the Indian
Ocean for operations off the Horn of Africa,
- submarine
visits to such ports as Columbo, Sri Lanka, and
- sale of
Chinese subs to such Indian neighbours as Bangladesh (around 2019) and perhaps
in future to Burma and Pakistan (see India's "West Coast Worries").
For more than a year there have been reports of a
pending sale of obsolescent Chinese Ming-class submarines to Bangladesh. See my
article http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/12/china-selling-two-type-035-ming-class.html
of December 24, 2013. It is highly
likely that, after expected delivery of the Mings in 2019, part of a Bangladesh
Ming crew and on-shore maintainers would be Chinese for a transition period.
This would cause a range of anxieties in India.
In late 2014 Indian intelligence and the Indian
Ministry of External Affairs have pushed the possibility (or for India a hope)
that Bangladesh might buy Russian submarines instead.
It is unclear whether these "Russian"
Submarines would be:
- new build Kilos (surely too expensive for
Bangladesh without credit-finance)
- used Kilos from Russia (cheaper but probably
unreliable with a short remaining service life) or
- ex-Indian Kilos (cheaper but probably unreliable
with a short remaining service life).
Two nations that probably will not buy submarines in
the short to medium term are:
- the
Philippines (it usually receives low-or-no cost used naval and coastguard vessels)
- see http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/the-philippine-navys-submarine-quest/
December 31, 2013,
- Thailand - http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/thailand-eyes-submarine-fleet/, January 4, 2015,
Pete's Comment: If Thailand bought used Ming subs from China Thailand might receive them in 2019 - depending on Chinese modifications. Used Kilos are harder to estimate. If Thailand prefered 2 or 3 new submarines costs would be much higher and involve:
- significant lead times for negotiating, ordering and building submarines - generally around 6 years for a new customer like Thailand
- in the case of South Korea as a supplier a backlog of pre-existing orders might perhaps cause delays. This may mean a minimum delivery year of 2020 for Thailand to receive the first sub then add 3 years for commissioning (tests, trials and training) the sub into the Thai Navy ie. 2023.
Pete's Comment: If Thailand bought used Ming subs from China Thailand might receive them in 2019 - depending on Chinese modifications. Used Kilos are harder to estimate. If Thailand prefered 2 or 3 new submarines costs would be much higher and involve:
- significant lead times for negotiating, ordering and building submarines - generally around 6 years for a new customer like Thailand
- in the case of South Korea as a supplier a backlog of pre-existing orders might perhaps cause delays. This may mean a minimum delivery year of 2020 for Thailand to receive the first sub then add 3 years for commissioning (tests, trials and training) the sub into the Thai Navy ie. 2023.
Pete