June 16, 2025

Israel May Coerce US Bomber Involvement in War Against Iran

In response to Shawn's June 13, 2025 comment:

Because Israel has no heavy bomber aircraft to carry 10+ tonne bunker buster bombs against deep dug Iranian 60+% highly enriched Uranium (HEU) and other targets Israel may coerce the US into deploying USAF B2s against those targets. US B2s are the only heavy bombers equipped, at short notice, to carry the 14 tonne freefall bunker buster GBU-57 bomb [1]

Of Western countries only the US has heavy bombers. Israeli F-35Is would be limited to carrying a 2,000kg GBU-28 bunker buster bomb internally (in full stealth mode) or 2 x GBU-28s externally (in less stealthy mode) [2]

Israel will argue that without US GBU-57 assistance Israel will have no alternative but to use the "unthinkable" against Iran. Unthinkable would be Israeli use of a low-to-intermediate yield nuclear bomb similar to the US's Mod 11 B61 freefall nuclear bunker buster bomb [3] .

[1]  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP#Development

[2]  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II#Specifications_(F-35A)

[3]  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B61_nuclear_bomb


Here
and below see the video "B2 Bomber Iran Airstrikes Strategy Explained" dated April 2025. Note the Israeli air force has already destroyed many/most(?) Iranian air defences.

3 comments:

Shawn C said...

Hi Pete,

US involvement could lead to Russian and/or Chinese intervention, taking us another step towards World War 3.

Also, the Israelis do not need a B2 for bunker busting, they are degrading Iranian air defences to enable F-15i Ra’am to deliver JDAM-equipped BLU-109/137 ‘bunker buster’ bombs.

https://www.twz.com/air/unprecedented-new-view-of-blu-109-bunker-buster-strike-that-killed-hezbollahs-leadership

There is also the possibility that Isarel has developed be a conventional variant of the Jericho II ballistic missile, configured to deploy a heavy deep penetrator with precision guidance from an SAR seeker - similar to the Pershing II and DF-21C.

Pete2 said...

Hi Shawn at 6/16/2025 6:27 PM

I'm hoping Russia, heavily committed in Ukraine, wouldn't have the forces or inclination to be involved - other than replacing destroyed SAM systems. And maybe Trump's bromance with Putin will also contribute to Russia staying out.

The increase in world oil and gas prices is bad news for heavy importer, China. I would say that other than warships and SSNs China doesn't have the power projection forces to take on Israel + the US.

Thanks for https://www.twz.com/air/unprecedented-new-view-of-blu-109-bunker-buster-strike-that-killed-hezbollahs-leadership Amazing video showing Israeli 1 ton BLU-109/137 ‘bunker buster’ plunge through the road and then the underground explosion is so "surgical" that it didn't even knock over the guy's motorbike about 4 metres from the bomb's entry point.

Yes a Jericho II ballistic missile with a conventional "bunker buster" warhead is possible - but nowhere near the 10 to 14 tonne weight of US B2 delivered bombs.

I think Iran's Fodow Fuel Enrichment Plant (just southwest of Tehran) is too deeply dug for Israeli bombs/warheads to get at - so will be high on the US/Trump's 14 tonne hit list - see map https://edition.cnn.com/world/middleeast/maps-israel-iran-strikes-charts-invs-dg

The war is tragic for civilians on both sides.

Pete

Pete2 said...

Here is information - at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordow_Fuel_Enrichment_Plant#2025_Israeli_airstrikes - on the Natanz and Fordow "deep underground [enrichment sites] "Satellite imagery and reports suggested that some above-ground sites at Fordow and Natanz were damaged, but the subterranean facilities that house centrifuges and enriched uranium were not breached."