A bit of fission bomb math regarding https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/31/iran-increases-stockpile-of-enriched-uranium-by-50-percent-iaea-says
This concerns the 408.6kg of
Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) enriched up to 60% Uranium 235, reported
by the IAEA in the Al Jazeera article above.
A further small non-linear Iranian
enrichment effort would bring the 60% HEU up to 95% optimal bomb grade.
About 40kg of 95% HEU is enough to produce a Hiroshima sized bomb atomic bomb. This would give Iran enough for 10 bombs. Israeli intelligence calculates 9.
10 are not enough to match Israel’s 100 to 200 much more powerful H bombs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons#Israel
Iran’s nemesis, Saudi Arabia, is also believed to have made a deal to place Pakistani nuclear warheads on the Saudi’s Chinese provided long range missiles https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2012/08/saudi-ballistic-missiles-nuclear.html
So Iran has a long way to go to
quietly build up its nuclear arsenal to match potential Israeli and Saudi
regional nuclear threats.
So Iran having no equivalent right to defend itself can be bombed at will.
Israel, Pakistan and India have more severely breached their international nuclear weapon non-proliferation obligations than Iran. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons
Here and below is an 8 month old account of Israel's illegal nuclear weapons development and 13:10 into the video, possible South African-Israeli nuclear weapons cooperation.
2 comments:
Hey Pete,
The Israel-South Africa nuclear connection from 1970-1980 is well documented, what we know very little about is the Iranian-North Korean( and Russian) connection, but it seems coincidental that both Iran and the DPRK both showed nuclear centrifuges in the last year.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/239555545_Israel_and_the_South_African_bomb
Anywho, the ability of the IDF to kinetically penetrate Iranian defenses has been demonstrated a number of times in the past, as has Israel’s ability to defend itself, with American help.
I expect a significant degradation of the IRGC rocket forces, so they will rely on drone attacks - this puts the recent news about America diverting APKWS to the Middle East, and sending embassy families home, into perspective:
https://www.twz.com/news-features/counter-drone-weapons-diverted-from-ukraine-to-middle-east-amid-rising-tensions-hegseth-confirms
Hi Shawn at 6/13/2025 6:53 PM
See my response in article "Israel May Coerce US Bomber Involvement in War Against Iran" of June 16, 2025 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/06/israel-may-coerce-us-bomber-involvement.html
Regards Pete
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