Other than "up to" 12 SSN-AUKUS and a heroically ambitious 1 SSN every 18 months drumbeat, yesterday's UK SSN-AUKUS announcement [1a] is no change from the UK's 2021 SSN-AUKUS announcement. "Up to" 12 leaves scope for reduction to 7. In 2021 [2] there was no actual number put on how many SSN-AUKUS subs would be produced for the UK Royal Navy and there is still no firm number. [1b]
Yesterday's announcement was a rather vacuous banner headline for the UK government's release of the broader Strategic Defence Review package. It was all the more vacuous because SSN-AUKUS production may end more than 20 years after the term of the current UK government ends.
The 12 SSN-AUKUS announcement is also heroic because SSN production [3] will compete for manpower, BAE corporate attention and space with Dreadnought SSBN production. [4] This competition will be most intense throughout the 2030s as it will make the Devonshire Dock Hall [5] rather crowded in the UK's Barrow-in-Furness submarine shipyard.
Also it is BAE, the UK's only submarine builder, that must handle this major spike in UK submarine production. BAE's cost overruns and delays record was not glowing producing just one class at one time, the Astute-class. [6].
Can the UK government afford to buy 2 classes of nuclear subs in the 2030s-2040s? That being 4 new SSBNs and the new class of SSN-AUKUSs.
Is the "up to 12" statement connected to the shortfall of SSNs for the USN? Up to 12 UK SSNs in the RN could reduce the negative impact of too few US SSNs for missions in the Arctic, Atlantic, Mediterranean and seas around North Africa-Middle East.
[1b] Full 144 page text https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/683d89f181deb72cce2680a5/The_Strategic_Defence_Review_2025_-_Making_Britain_Safer_-_secure_at_home__strong_abroad.pdf see page 6: "Through the AUKUS programme, this will
allow us to grow our nuclear-powered
attack submarine fleet to up to 12."
Pete Comment: So up to 12 could turn out to be just 7 and even then 7 could be a rolling combination of Astutes and SSN-AUKUS.
Pete Comment: So up to 12 could turn out to be just 7 and even then 7 could be a rolling combination of Astutes and SSN-AUKUS.
2 comments:
Thanks Pete. As well as those vague words “up to 12” SSNs, I also note that, after 3 years of design work, there is still no statement on the forecast cost of SSN AUKUS, either singly or as a class. How can UK possibly know how many SSNs will be built if they don’t know the cost and won’t state the budget?
The promised build rate may not be within resource constraints. At the height of the cold war Barrow was producing roughly 1 SSN per 18 months. However those were 5000 tonne Trafalgar Class, not 10000 tonne SSN AUKUS. The workforce had peaked at 13,000 not the current 9000. Can 2/3 the workforce do double the work? I doubt it.
Finally I am not clear if it is physically possible to fit all that activity on the Barrow site. Space is already tight, and surrounded by buildings and water. There is little spare land. Can they fit 3 SSN AUKUS in the build hall while also supporting Dreadnought?
Hi Anonymous at 6/04/2025 8:31 PM
In addition to the uncosted SSN-AUKUSes the UK needs to simultaneously pay for 4 Dreadnoughts. Quite a budgeting problem when the UK needs to expand all 3 military services to face Russia. All this with a troubled UK economy.
Your second para is very interesting:
"The promised build rate may not be within resource constraints. At the height of the cold war Barrow was producing roughly 1 SSN per 18 months. However those were 5000 tonne Trafalgar Class, not 10000 tonne SSN AUKUS."
The UK Labor government may also be talking increased SSN numbers and quicker production in response to US Defence GDP% pressure and due to the US's SSN shortfall not meeting USN needs.
"The workforce had peaked at 13,000 not the current 9000. Can 2/3 the workforce do double the work? I doubt it." says it all.
On your 3rd para BAE has not distinguished itself meeting major industrial challenges and would need to transform its corporate culture to do so.
Regards Pete
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