India is seeking to generate competition between several country/company submarine sellers to correct the lack of competition, through to 2022, resulting from the official "must have working AIP" Project-75(I) process.
India’s Financial Express
reported late February 2023:
“Germany is offering
next-generation submarines to India, worth a $5.2 billion deal to jointly build
six conventional submarines [to meet Project-75(I)]. While there is no official confirmation, the talks
over the submarine took place during [German] Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit,
it is learnt.” It is unclear which AIP submarine Germany is offering – the current
technology Type 214 or future (and much larger) Type 212CD.
If true Germany might be
offering the only competition against South Korea’s DSME Type 214 variant (Germany
might object that DSME is on-selling German designed 214 technology). To avoid any German objection DSME may be offering the SK designed DSME-3000.
The rumour mill is that Russia’s
Rubin Amur-1650,
Spain’s Navantia S-80 Plus and France’s Naval Group Scorpene (or conventional
Barracuda) are also in 75(I) contention. Some in India intend to upgrade/retrofit French Kalavari and future 75(I) SSKs with the DRDO AIP but this plan may come to nothing. Yet those three countries/companies have
failed to meet the major 75(I) criteria of having produced an efficient, mature,
modern, AIP with proven operation at sea.
Meanwhile arch-enemy Pakistan is relying on efficient China to perhaps deliver 4 x China assembled Hangor-class Yuan-variants to Pakistan by 2024. Pakistan may complete the final 4 Hangors by 2028 . All 8 x Hangors may have AIP. But the Hangors may lack the more effective German designed MTU 396 diesel engines - with China offering its reportedly inferior Chinese designed CHD620 diesels instead.
14 comments:
I have no doubt that all 8 Hangor-class boats will be in the water by the time the first P-75I is (unless it happens to be a follow-on Kalvari/Scorpene).
I have a couple of comments about the Hangor though.
1) It's interesting that China, despite its highly developed local industry in the field of battery & fuel-cell technologies, has only offered a Stirling engine-based AIP. Stirlings, to the best of my knowledge, are tricky to quieten down due to their very nature of having moving mechanical parts. The Swedish have decades of experience with Stirlings so it stands to reason they have figured out engineering solutions to mitigate much of that on modern boats like the A26 Blekinge-class. It's entirely possible the Chinese have acquired the know-how of these solutions via espionage, but it remains to be seen.
2) The Hangors (as well as the S26T variant contracted by Thailand) were originally meant to have German MTU diesel engines, but the EU found these exports to be in violation of regulations meant to curb transfer of dual-use items to China, so the sales were blocked. The Chinese came up with their own diesel, but the Royal Thai Navy rejected it. I would assume the noise profile & reliability were not up to par with the original German one.
https://thediplomat.com/2022/11/thailands-navy-chief-says-country-could-cancel-chinese-sub-contract/
It's likely the Pakistanis had the same issues with the Chinese diesel, but it's apparent that they deemed it more important for new hulls to enter service than for said hulls to have all the originally agreed-upon fitments & noise profile.
All that said, boats in the water are boats in the water - and the Pakistani-Chinese program has shown swift results. The Hangors will likely replace the 2 x Agosta 70 and 3 x Agosta 90B class boats (the latter fitted with first-generation MESMA AIP) currently in service with the Pakistan Navy.
Hi Gessler
Thanks very much for your info and assessments.
On "1)" I'd also add that Singapore's 2 Archer-class SSKs, in Asia-Pacific waters similar to China's, have long used Swedish Stirling AIP https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archer-class_submarine . Knowing Singaporean efficiency its use of Swedish AIP is quite an endorsement.
"2)" Indeed very likely that the Hangors might be stuck Chinese diesels (considered by the Thai Navy as) inferior to MTU 396s. Thanks, I have added the diesel issue to my Hangor comments (in the text) accordingly.
The Indian Navy has its SSK work cut out for it - getting new SSKs in tyhe water - with or without AIP. In addition to 8 Pak Navy Hangors (maybe by 2028) there are increasing visits by PLA-N SSKs and SSNs to the Indian Ocean. India cannot allow a diminished IN SSK force. And India's 6 planned SSNs may be commissioned as late as Australia's AUKUS SSNs.
Regards Pete
Agree with Gessler. Stirlings limit operational depths to a max 200 m and are not exactly quiet. The Chinese have tried to make the local diesel (very likely a reverse engineered MTU396 series or specifically 16V396SE84 engines) and even offered the Thais to have the Chinese diesel certified by MTU (how and why MTU would consent being the unanswered question).
The Thai Navy has said no to that and also no to the alternative choice of taking 2 decommissioned Chinese Song class subs. This is besides China's efforts to mount the diesels on thick rubber mountings and coating in some sort of anechoic tiles to deaden the noise. I have read jokes about the Songs being about as silent as a rampaging boar in a potato field on an otherwise silent moonlit night. /s
The pakistanis I think have no choice in the matter. They are in financial difficulties of the sort not seen since 1971-72 and hence might have taken the 'one bird in hand' logic route and decided to get the S-20s to deploy more longer range SLCMs, AShMs etc.
PS: You might have read that pakistan is now rated CCC and is left staring at having just 'grass to eat'.... something they have been threatening to do since 1972.
PPS: Since India wants to up its SSK building tech, I guess they are pushing hard on the ToT front with not much success... me thinks 3 follow up Scorpenes later this year/early 2024 is most likely.
I dont think it going to be that much delayed, recently it was reported that Cabinet Committee on Security already cleared the project.
"t. Not long ago, the Indian government also provided formal clearance to a program to build six nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN) similar to the Akula attack submarine (INS Chakra) that the Indian Navy had leased from Russia, and is in line to lease a second. Timelines on India’s SSN program, however, are not clear, and it is unlikely that planners will predicate conventional submarine numbers on the prospect of early deliveries of the intended SSN product."
https://www.livefistdefence.com/indian-aip-to-be-fitted-on-1st-scorpene-submarine/
We comfortably can assume that contract signing has already happened, and funds are dispersed.
Also, the media blackout not going to be lifted over SSN project, and we only going to see it through sat images once it get launched.
For context, a memo was issued from NSA office back in Dec 2014 after Arihant SSBN's leak to implement media blackout, and issue OSA to violators.
https://smedia2.intoday.in/indiatoday/images/stories/2014December/nsa--2-650_123014074224.jpg
Also regarding the 75I, the Amur 1650, S80 Peral and Type 214 are out and almost 100% any diesel Barracuda version is also out...
Logic demands a repeat of the Scorpenes and possibly an attempt to make a local SSK test bed just like the chinese did with the Song class.
PAFC AIP retrofit to one Scorpene initially is quite likely...mostly the Kalvari at its refit during 2025-26...(at max the 214 with its PEMFC AIP and Siemens LiB might become attractive as an offshelf buy)
The MoD in India is already well aware that this time the enhanced ToT demands are being resisted and out right denied (rightly TKMS, NG will say most likely)..... a Repeat Scorpene buy and a locally developed SSK are possibly the only useful solutions in the short and long term respectively.
Hi GhalibKabir at Mar 6, 2023, 4:39:00 PM and Mar 6, 2023, 7:15:00 PM
I think India mainly ran the 75(I) process in the hope of obtaining 6 submarines with fuel cell PEM AIP tech from Germany or South Korea and to gain knowledge of integrating such a modern AIP with an SSK.
Interesting tjhat the Thai Navy knocked back 2 decommissioned Chinese Song class subs presumably offered very cheaply. Maybe the prospect of extended Chinese repairs, de-rusting and modernisation involved may have been a constant Thai headache. This might be akin to Canada’s second hand Upholder class problems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upholder/Victoria-class_submarine
“These submarines initially suffered from serious electrical problems [and serious rust] and were beset by mechanical operational incidents that limited their active service and the scope of their deployments.”
True Pakistan is in such poor financial shape (now and usually) it would never have the money to buy eight AIP equipped subs at world market prices. Instead, I think, China is semi-donating them to a Pak ally guaranteed to mainly use the Hangors against Pak's and China’s mutual enemy, India.
Problems for India are increased in that the Hangors could be used as launch pads for nuclear tipped Babur land attack missiles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babur_(cruise_missile)#Design
I find it hard to predict what India will finally settle for in the 75(I) competition or outside that competition.
Six more Scorpenes, off the Kalvari production line, would make the most sense. French developed second/third generation AIP or DRDO AIP might then be retrofitted to all twelve Indian Scorpenes.
China would certainly benefit from a foolhardy Indian “attempt to make a local SSK” in the sense that this enormous and misdirected effort would delay Indian design, development and production of the more potent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_75_Alpha future Indian SSNs.
Regards Pete
Hi Arpit Kanodia @ Mar 6, 2023, 6:26:00 PM
Regarding the Livefist article https://www.livefistdefence.com/indian-aip-to-be-fitted-on-1st-scorpene-submarine/ an expectation that DRDO’s AIP could be technically mature enough to be integrated or retrofitted into the Kalvari Scorpenes has been an unproven assumption for years. So I don’t give much credence to the Ministry of Defence’s administrative or political permission to use that AIP Overcoming the TECHNICAL problems of using that AIP.
I see DRDO AIP as India’s Plan B (a backup or hedging project) and very much part of India’s national pride.
However the main strategy of India persevering with P-75(I) has been reliance on foreign AIP designs. More specificalluy, India acquiring a mature, tested at sea, foreign AIP technology. This Plan A was/is meant to avoid the financial and technical risks of integrating the seemingly always “almost ready” DRDO AIP.
+++++++++++++++
Interesting that Livefist https://www.livefistdefence.com/indian-aip-to-be-fitted-on-1st-scorpene-submarine/ also reports
“the Indian government also provided formal clearance to a program to build six nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN) similar to the Akula attack submarine…”
"Akula" may contradict https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_75_Alpha advice that “These will be designed by the Navy's in-house Directorate of Naval Design”
Or perhaps an India-Russian team will significantly modernise the Akula design.
Either way India will be reliant on Russian assistance, probably for the usual 15 years of a contract-to-commissioning submarine program, in developing an Indian Akula, including supplying a mainly Russian designed reactor.
This is noting it may not be an option for India to build a variant of Russia’s latest Yasen-class SSN, because Russia considers the Yasen contains too many technical secrets that Russia won’t risk sharing with another country.
Yet a Russia cash-strapped by its war in Ukraine may be more inclined to transfer some Yasen tech to India. This is because of India's rising financial power vis a vis a Russia with (likely) severe budgetary problems. This may play out that India's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_75_Alpha future SSNs may end up being more like Yasens than Akulas.
Regards Pete
Quick comments Pete
1. I agree six more Scorpenes is best bet and fastest likely solution. DRDO AIP or NG AIP+LiB if available might be integrated. Absent this, the DSME-3000 is not a bad choice assuming India can commit to 8-12 subs and set up a line. With DSME-3000, may be Siemens can be persuaded to install LiB system later. Another dark horse are the Japanese, assuming the Chinese threat grows so sinister, Japan could be willing to sell LiB offshelf to India. Admittedly, this is not likely as things stand today and might be difficult to do. Japan or Korea or Germany, I only see commercial 'blackbox' 'use only' sales off the shelf.
(I think a lingering concern over the Scorpene is the leak of sensitive data from NG to the Chinese in 2016-2017, so I assume the IN might be concerned at how well PLAN knows the signatures of this sub in detail... I did hear the construction had been adapted by NG to mitigate and change signature profiles...still the leak has prevented additional boats yet)
2. SSN over SSK - Better use of India's smaller resource base. SSNs are a priority. Btw, Russia will certainly NOT give Yasen technology to India. The test bed reactor they helped India with was one of the older Papa class reactors and certainly not top of the line Russian navy reactor tech (MoD in India knows this). Reality is that some family jewels are never parted with (unless India does a China and gets hold of retired Russian engineers who can help make a breakthrough). Not that India is ungrateful for what Russia did. But it is important to keep things in perspective. Russia gave things but also got paid very well in hard currency - them greenbacks you see.
From what I know their is very limited involvement of Russia in P-75 Alpha, S4* and S5. Even the uprated reactor for S4* had been done by DAE without any involvement of Russia, only thing Russia is providing enriched uranium for reactors. The know how and know why for PWR marine reactor is already absorbed by the DAE.
There is far greater involvement of French regarding sensors and propulsion including IEP, pumpjet. In the navy’s assessment Yasen would be a highly sub optimal sub in saline waters because of not so great sensor suite. Even in Arihant SSBN, the most of sensors are of western origin or indian, not Russian.
The only thing India right now is asking for SLBM tech from Russia.
Thanks Ghalib and Arpit
I'll turn your info and comments into 3 articles, dealing with India's need for:
- 6+ new SSKs
- P-75 Alpha SSNs
and
- S5 SSBNs
from the morrow.
Regards Pete
Hi the Anonymous
Thanks for posting your comment on March 9, 2023, about Australia buying US Virginias.
I have shifted your comment to just below my new article:
"Australia likely buying 3 to 5 Virginias. Building UK SSN(Rs)?"
of March 9, 2023
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/03/australia-likely-buying-3-to-5.html
Regards Pete
GhalibKabir said
Hi Pete
I think Arpit says India wants SLBM technology from Russia. This is now moot as Russia already helped India with the K-4. The tests clearly show Russian influence in the SLBM.
MIRVing and warhead upgrades are for India to do. Russia won't help/need not help any more. The K-5 and K-6 tests need to happen for integration into the S-5 SSBNs.
Plus the uranium or HEU for Indian subs comes from India ENR facilities and not from Russia as this would most certainly violate NPT and NSG rules. India gets yellowcake as feedstock but enriches it locally for the most part.
thought would clarify this
Hi Arpit and Ghalib
There is so much happeninng with Australia (maybe) buyings Virginias that I'll delay India's subs article(s) till tomorrow.
Cheers Pete
Hi Gessler, Arpit and Ghalib
Pease see my developing article:
"India's 6 Major Sub Related Activities - Work in Progress"
dated March 8, 2023
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/03/indias-6-major-sub-related-activities.html
I'm still working on it :)
Regards Pete
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