Peter Lobner, in his USN nuclear submarine study recognised the low availability of US SSNs, including Virginias. On page 132 Lobner writes:
"In October 2017, the maintenance backlog was reported to have idled 15 SSNs for a total unplanned delay of 177 months (14.75 submarine years)."
So 15 of the USN's 50 SSNs are inactive, in maintenance, at any one time.
On that ratio, 1 of the 3 RAN Virginias of the 2030s will be inactive, in maintenance, probably in a US shipyard, 1,000s of kms away from Australia, at any one time.
This leaves only 2 Virginias maximum active in the RAN.
However, we can go further using the standard naval/military Rule of Thirds indicating just 1 of the 3 RAN Virginias will be available for operations on average, for something like A$120 Billion of Australian tax payers money, spent by 2040.
5 comments:
Thanks Anonymous @Mar 27, 2023, 10:48:00 AM
For https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/australia-purchasing-220-tomahawk-cruise-missiles/
I'd be interested to know:
How many and which of the 220 Tomahawks are intended for:
- Collins submarine, rather than surface ship, or aircraft? launch?
and
- how many for land attack or (maybe better still) anti-ship missile use?
If they're all for land attack they would be overkill for Australia's Southeast Asian and Pacific Regions and courting nuclear retaliation if used against the Chinese mainland.
Alternatively Australia could duplicate or even triplicate the USN's own capabilities in using Tomahawk land attack missiles against the well trod Middle East/Afghanistan theatre.
Cheers Pete
Hi, Pete!
Haven't been on this site for awhile unfortunately.
There has been an interesting new announcement by Singapore's MINDEF: https://www.mindef.gov.sg/web/portal/mindef/news-and-events/latest-releases/article-detail/2023/March/27mar23_nr
MINDEF has signed a contract with Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd (ST Engineering) for the detailed design and construction of six Multi-Role Combat Vessels (MRCVs) to replace the existing Victory-class Missile Corvettes (MCVs) in the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN). The six MRCVs will be delivered progressively from 2028 onwards.
The MRCV employs key technologies such as configurable modular payloads and unmanned systems, allowing the vessel to function as a "mothership" for unmanned drones and vessels to conduct a range of missions from peace to war.
The MCVs have been serving with distinction since 1989 and will remain in operational service until the MRCVs are delivered and operationalised.
The indomitable Xavier Vavasseur of Naval News reported on it too, coupled with an interesting rumour: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/03/singapores-dsta-taps-saab-for-mrcv-design/
The most salient bits of the rumour (in the Naval News piece) are that MRCV will:
feature SAAB as the principal design and construction partner
be ~10,000 tons full load
Based off OMT Iver Huitfeldt/Absalon heavy frigate-transport ships.
have "Advanced Electric Propulsion"
have SEAFIRE, Aster and MICA-VL
be both a principal surface combatant and a drone mothership
This is at least partly corroborated by the following press release by DSTA:
https://www.dsta.gov.sg/docs/default-source/news-releases/sdts23_-news-release_dsta-partners-saab.pdf
I'd always imagined that the RSN would need heavier principal surface combatants, but I didn't expect this!
Thanks retortPouch @Mar 28, 2023, 2:20:00 AM
Naval News has well and truly covered the MRCV issue at the link you have kindly provided https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/03/singapores-dsta-taps-saab-for-mrcv-design/
So I have little to add except agreeing with you that the 10,000 ton future MRCVs "replacing" the Victory-class corvettes represents a jump of two ship sizes from the Victory-class (whose tonnage of only 600 tons, was more like a large missile patrol boat than a corvette).
The MRCVs seem to outmatch any of Singapore's Southeast Asian neighbours, leading me to assume Singapore, like Australia, is also looking at China as the No.1 threat.
If you have any reporting on Singapore's submarines, eg. progress of the Invincible-class replacing the Archer and Challenger classes, I'd be most interested.
Regards Pete
Only that Invincible will be returning to Singapore this year after conclusion of manufacturer sea trials and that Impeccable and Illustrious have been launched for trials.
JMMS is still a black hole.
The Formidables will be undergoing an MLU, so I imagine the Endurance will need it too.
https://www.mindef.gov.sg/web/portal/mindef/news-and-events/latest-releases/article-detail/2022/march/02mar22_fs2/!ut/p/z1/rZFNc4IwEIZ_iweOmV1iEDhS29F2RPqBH-TiBAhCK0Eho_XfNzg99KKdzjSnze6T3XffAIc1cCWO1VboqlFiZ-4JH23c6H48RUbnkRPbGCzjeObczR8X7giWwIHvsyqHxB6mNJe5IKmXScIEQ-IXHiPMtzHLXd9JHdnTmdJ7XUJSVyqXBckapaXSFpZNLS1U8tQRoXIijybbWbgTWnaatHInRSdNgiKlFtaizUoLkZqA0k3RUVj9JpabMl45AZr3_IJEL2xiM6SzKHx1TAff92J8pjhxv4EbPRKjwb2uwYXVsZInWKimrY2_b3-0b4rwdJFwY0vzZ9X74cADY3Xv7aeG9b97bYbQNhyHWyNf6JJUqmhg3eNmWI_D-ie-r2tveCYfRfgwZDw9n4LB4AvEie4X/dz/d5/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/?urile=wcm%3Apath%3A%2Fmindef-content%2Fhome%2Fnews-and-events%2Flatest-releases%2F2022%2FMarch%2F02mar22_fs2
I don't imagine MRCV's weapons fit will be much heavier than what Formidable is will carry.
Dollars to donuts Invincible will show up at IMDEX.
Thanks retortPouch @Mar 28, 2023, 1:05:00 PM
Noting your submarine advice:
"Only that Invincible will be returning to Singapore this year after conclusion of manufacturer sea trials and that Impeccable and Illustrious have been launched for trials."
And
"Dollars to donuts Invincible will show up at IMDEX."
I'11 do an article on it right now.
Cheers Pete
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