Future Labor Government: Some Major Submarine Issues

In response to Anonymous’s acute points and questions of March 10, 2022

Thanks for locating The Guardian's https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/10/albanese-to-pledge-increased-defence-spending-as-morrison-promises-more-personnel . 

Albanese said in his speech today:

"...After a production line of six defence ministers in this Government - and two goes at landing on a model - we now have no contract for any submarine, and a looming submarine-shaped capability gap. 

...The 2020 Strategic Update announced traditional ten-year warning times no longer apply, yet the acquisition of new submarines has been pushed out up to two decades.

...And Labor will plan for how we address submarine capability in the period until we receive the nuclear-powered submarines.

...The Morrison Government has been dropping hints about submarines, but offered no clarity.

This week also saw an announcement about [a future East Coast nuclear submarine base] announcement, with the Government promising that it would announce the location of a new submarine base in Australia in 2023."

Pete Comment

Albanese is well aware that the long lead-times, high costs and complexities of submarine projects present a poisoned chalice for any Australian Government - which only exists for 3 and a half years between elections.

So Albanese, without reviews, complex Defence and also Prime Minister & Cabinet Departmental advice cannot pledge anything until (I would say late 2023) on Australian Submarines, location of East Coast Sub Base, Frigates, Destroyers and patrol vessels.

It should not be forgot that UK/US nuclear subs have been visiting Fleet Base West, Australia's main submarine base, just south of Perth for many years. 

Furthermore, if Australia's future nuclear submarines have a standard 30 knot speed, I calculate from Fleet Base West they can reach much of our East Coast in 3 days. This is around 3 times faster than our Collins subs coming from Fleet Base Waest. So an East Coast nuclear submarine base (a good candiate for the too-hard-basket) may not be necessary.

The high proportion of Greens and leftish ALP voters, at local, State and Federal electorate levels, in Port Kembla, Newcastle and Brisbane, means the Wedge with a possible Labor Federal Government has only just begun. So many roads to choose. The main wedge being on anything new that's nuclear. Also anything nuclear is vastly complex, expensive and literally poisonous.

Transparency on the many secretive aspects of nuclear propelled subs, and potentially nuclear armed visiting US subs, will always be difficult. This is even under a potential Albanese Government.

"Will we see an interim sub option?" it would likely take at least 12 years from initial discussions to commissioning of interim subs. No large second-hand subs are available. Australia would need large subs, rather than European style small-medium off-the-shelf subs, to meet Australia's long-range, extended mission needs.

If money is no object then morphing the planned Life of Type Extension (LOTE) of the Collins subs into (say) a six new Collins II sub program may be possible. This would also provide a national safety, parallel, measure when or if the AUKUS submarine plan falls over.  

Some submarine experts have talked about a possible Australian purchase of second-hand, largish, Japanese Oyashio-class subs. Japan is understandably jaded about Australian submarine buyers, and wants to keep all its aging Oyashios to boost its own Japanese submarine force. Also Japan's Oyashios, Soryus and even late model Taigeis have a shorter range, less comfort and lower capabilities overall, than Australia's current Collins.

Some hope may come from South Korea. South Korea is already building large KSS-III submarines with a vertical launch missile capability. South Korea has a good submarine export record and is not yet jaded with Australian submarine buyers.

All this would not be easy for an Albanese Government. Then again Morrison Marketing could well win in May.