Australia's Asia-Pacifice Defence Reporter APDR, on April 14, 2022, reported an Indian
P-8I maritime patrol aircraft was deployed to Darwin to exercise with a RAAF P-8A aircraft.
Earlier Gessler, in very interesting March 24, 2022 posts (with Pete's comments in [...] brackets) wrote:
An article was published in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) by Andrew Tillett following up on the recently-concluded Virtual Summit between the Prime Ministers Modi of India and Morrison of Australia (which was incidentally right after PM Modi's in-person summit with the Japanese PM Kishida).
Tillett talks about an
impending 'deployment' of Indian spy planes (journalist-speak for
P-8I maritime patrol aircraft) to Australia. [Pete comment: More in the "spy" sense P-8s can also be fitted with Airborne Ground Surveillance (optical, infrared, radar and signals collection sensors)].
As the AFR articles are behind a paywall, I'm only going to reproduce bits & pieces, and often paraphrasing:
"The types of exercises [Australia has] done with the Indians in the past have been pretty light on, but this would be a step-up in terms of complexity. This is where we were 15 years ago with Japan: fairly uncomplicated maritime surveillance, then it becomes co-ordinating ships and aircraft at sea. Exercises are ladder of complexity and this is the first step being climbed." - said Peter Jennings of ASPI.
Two examples of the previous exercises Mr. Jennings is alluding to are:
https://news.defence.gov.au/international/poseidon-power-major-exercise and
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-anti-submarine-exercise-us-7710105/
The second AFR article, indicates:
"After several years of Australia and India stepping up the tempo of joint military exercises, the leaders also announced an Indian maritime patrol aircraft would be deployed to Australia sometime soon as part of strengthening collaboration on maritime issues.
It’s unclear where the aircraft will be based but it is expected that Australian aircraft will also pay a reciprocal visit to India, as the leaders spoke about the need to keep open critical regional maritime corridors..."
The two articles draw a lot from the joint statements issued via official channels, though the joint statement did not actually mention any specifics of an aircraft deployment:
https://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/35008/JOINT+STATEMENT++INDIAAUSTRALIA+VIRTUAL+SUMMIT
The important part under
the "Security and defence cooperation" section goes:
"[Leaders] welcomed enhanced maritime information sharing and maritime domain awareness...Leaders underscored the importance of reciprocal access arrangements in facilitating deeper operational defence cooperation and its contribution towards free and open critical regional maritime corridors."
I'm not entirely clear regarding the nature of the Indian P-8's visit. Though the line in the second article about it being 'based' as opposed to the reciprocal Australian aircraft's 'visit' is interesting, but I don't know if that is anything substantial to go on. But what I can tell you is that India has been wanting to operate aircraft out of Australia's Cocos (Keeling) Islands, [which sit in the Indian Ocean] for quite some time.
[Pete comment: Wikipedia states:
"The 2016 Australian Defence White Paper stated that the airfield [on the Cocos Keeling's West Island] would be upgraded to support the RAAF's P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft.[53] "]
This interest is
documented in publications as well...
https://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/australias-strategic-imperatives-in-indo-pacific-rpsingh-230222
The 'reciprocal' part may come in with regard to Australia's access to operate from facilities on India's Andaman & Nicobar Islands. [Pete comment: The Islands' capital, Port Blair, hosts several bases including Indian Navy and Indian Air Force].
Or perhaps even the new [South China Sea like] Indian base being built on one of Mauritius' two Agalega islands in the Indian Ocean. [Mauritius is Indian military dominated. The Agalega island might be available for Australian use or at least visits].
See an investigative video on the base here and above. The Indian base on the Agalega islands seems tailored for operations of Indian P-8Is or other large aircraft.
I'd wait and see regarding what kind of 'deployment' AFR is talking about (because it could simply be another joint exercise). But as a closing note, I'd say that in addition to building Domain Awareness underwater (such as through 'Fish Hook'
[older, deep oceanic term "SOSUS" and the modern, broader term US "IUSS" network. Also see SMI's references to IUSS]
it is also important for QUAD nations to extend that cooperation into Surface,
Air and Space domains. This is in order to build and maintain a full spectrum of
surveillance and domain-awareness capabilities against PLAN activities in the
Indo-Pacific, which would only be growing by leaps and bounds in the coming
years and decades.
[Please link the above with Submarine Matters' September 11, 2018 article Japan-US-Indian IUSS cable link completed across Bay of Bengal ]
9 comments:
Hi Pete
Indian AF is building infrastructure in the Agalega islets (a few km size ) a long landing strip and communications ect ) in fact, since 2018 .This is completely public knowledge in the Reunion or Mauritius press
https://www.navalnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Indian-Navy-P-8I-MPA-in-Reunion-Island-for-Combined-Training-with-French-Forces.jpg
IAF is also doing P8 runs with the French around Reunion Island
Thanks Anonymous for your response.
Yes rarely do residents of quiet islets (like Agalega islets) take kindly to a military base, full of strangers, being built on those islets.
I see Réunion is a very interesting island.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9union#Geopolitics indicates:
"Today, the island, the seat of a defense and security zone, is the headquarters of the French Armed Forces of the Southern Indian Ocean Zone (FAZSOI), which brings together French Army units stationed in La Réunion and Mayotte. Réunion is also a base for the so-called Frenchelon signal intelligence system, whose infrastructure includes a mobile listening and automatic search unit.
Saint-Pierre is also the headquarters of the mostly uninhabited French Southern and Antarctic Lands (Terres australes et antarctiques françaises, TAAF).
Because of France's possession of Réunion, France is a member of the Indian Ocean Commission, which also includes the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and the Seychelles."
and then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9union#Defence
"The French Armed Forces are responsible for the defence of the department. These forces also contribute to the defence of other French territories in the region, including Mayotte and the French Southern and Antarctic Lands.
A total of some 2,000 French troops are deployed in the region - mostly in Reunion - along with modest air transport and surveillance assets.[23] The French naval presence includes: two Floréal-class frigates, Floréal and Nivôse, the icebreaker L'Astrolabe, the patrol and support ship Champlain and the coast guard vessel Le Malin."
Regards Pete
Maxar has public pictures available of an islet airstrip capable of accommodating a 737 class jet in the Mauritius area. Must be the air arm of the IN. The problem is as per best available expert reviews, India's ELINT, COMINT and SIGINT assets are technologically older, in a manner of speaking. This kind of limits the snooping abilities of not only the Mauritius posts, but also the ones in Seychelles and Maldives.
It is a good thing RAAF and IAF are going to work more like the Japanese and Aussies in recent times. It is to be welcomed and hope it expands in the future.
PS: It beggars belief that the Solomon Islands did not learn from the horrible tragedy that befell the Sri Lankans thanks to the debt trap courtesy China. If this is the Solomon Islands way of cocking a snook at Australia and by extension the west, then I am afraid the Solomon Islands will not like it when the PLAN sends Type-55 destroyers and Type 093G SSNs on 'refueling' practice and other 'friendly' visits. it will be too late then...
we have a saying in Hindi 'Laton ki bhoot batein se nahi maante' (crudely put, the ghost of kicks doesn't get persuaded by mere words or only a thrashing will make the moron realize...))
Hi Ghalib [at Mar 29, 2022, 6:15:00 PM]
I'd love a link on Maxar's public pictures of an islet airstrip capable of accommodating a 737 class jet in the Mauritius area.
This is noting P-8s are 737-800ERX derivatives of course https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_P-8_Poseidon
If India was obedient to the US in the servile manner of Australia then the US might have supplied India with more sensitive P-8 collection tech.
Yes the more alliance activity (including India and Australia) to contain China's advances in the Indo-Pacific the better.
Returning to last week's topic, Solomons in the Pacific Ocean:
The Solomon Islands is a very new democracy with less than 700.000 people and a low per capita GDP (PPP) of only $2,306 so only a small bit of bribery by China goes a long way. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solomon_Islands
A Chinese air and naval base in the Solomons would be geo-strategically advantageous for China.
It might be distant to resupply from mainland China. But, in the Japanese WWII tradition as as a nodal "forward base" in a chain Solomon bases would be unfettered compared to China's current First Island Chain "hemmed in" restriction.
Also the Solomons would be a good piece of realestate for China to lean on Australia, in peace and war.
Regards Pete
The Maxar picture is in this article
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/3/evidence-points-to-secret-indian-navy-base-on-mauritian-island
The Quad will need much more tighter coordination in the coming years. Ship borne EW platforms, AEW based from carriers are all being systematically employed by China in the Indian Ocean like pawns being advanced by a player with a purpose.
Just like their base in Djibouti at the mouth of the red sea, Solomon islands could serve as the key outpost for China to eventually enforce a significant 'cordon sanitaire' from the Pacific islands till the Chinese coast (sort of first plus second island chain moat)
PS: Hope springs eternal, might be China's rising defence budgets eventually play a role in its undoing.
Thanks Ghalib [at Apr 4, 2022, 4:35:00 PM]
The Maxar satellite pricture provides a useful before and after contrast https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/3/evidence-points-to-secret-indian-navy-base-on-mauritian-island
A risk-downside of the West's (including US, Aus and Japan's) trade & financial sanctions against Russia following Ukr invasion is:
1. closer economic and strategic relations between China and Russia and
2. even greater Indian-Russia trade, financial and strategic relations.
This may see increased trilateral China-Russia-India economic and strategic relations at the expense of the Quad.
--------
Yes the Solomons may present a more vulnerable First Island Chain breaking link than the highly militarised anti-China Northeast Asia.
Regards Pete
Pete@Apr 5, 2022, 5:06:00 PM
1. closer economic and strategic relations between China and Russia and
My opinion is that there is a real risk Russia becomes a junior partner in the relationship. That is why the lack of nuance over Ukraine maddens me. Subtlety and nuance seem to have vanished as diplomatic tools all over the place.
2. even greater Indian-Russia trade, financial and strategic relations.
Due to 1 above, my answer is India-Russia will be much more complicated. Yes, for oil, metals, critical military hardware such as SSNs, Cruise missile tech etc., India-Russia links may/might stay strong...the story however ends there due to the China factor. India is likely to be 'broadly neutral' with a soft western tilt for the most part. I am willing to wager this posture is unlikely to change even if China agrees to a decent border solution. (unlikely if realist geopolitics of the Beijing Politburo is any clue)
The remarkable continuum of 'non-alignment to the extent possible' from Nehru to Modi is likely to continue as India focuses on economic growth and protect itself from climate change driven energy transition and all the civil strife it is almost 100% likely to entail by 2045. Given the oncoming climate change train wreck, we will do well to stay out of geopolitical quarrels, me thinks...
PS: I am 100% certain that as water flows reduce in the 3 basins of Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, India will witness horrendous wars as thirsty and hungry millions from pakistan and bangladesh demand to be let into India....I shudder to think of the future that my now 4 year old daughter will certainly witness around 2045. No SSN or SSBN can prevent that horror from occurring as the Tibetan plateau glacial melting is now locked in.
Hi Ghalib [at Apr 5, 2022, 7:05:00 PM ]
"1. closer economic and strategic relations between China and Russia and"
I think the West's loudly announced sanctions and arms shipments are not only for Putin's Perverse edification, but an explanation to the Western and Ukrainian public that Western countries care about defending democracy - short of starting World War Three.
Putin, is but a blinkered the old KGB man, who has never lived in a democracy (only authoritarian Soviet-Russia and the Stasi's East Germany). Putin does not respect subtlety.
2. even greater Indian-Russia trade, financial and strategic relations.
India clearly has a set of non-aligned interests and history that is at variance to NATO and other Western countries.
Yep the whole world will suffer shortages of life's essentials. That is if Putin's nuclear threats are not lauched beforehand.
Regards Pete
I am reasonably sure that Putin will not resort to nukes. He has mostly got what he wants in Ukraine (albeit at a very high price and uncertain outlook) i.e. likely 'neutrality' for 15 years and the Ukraine flattened like a pancake industrially and economically.
As I said, diplomatic memories tend to be elephantine and for a good reason. At its coldest and emotionless best, diplomacy is merely the pursuit of the 'best set of aligned interests' where possible.
Justified or not, The inescapable fact is that the US has pretty much weaponized the majority of its financial instruments including international payment services such as SWIFT. That 'weaponization' will not go un-noticed. It is one thing to practice 'Might is Right' brutally just like every other hegemon in history, but it is another thing and a pretty dangerous thing at that to arrogantly and whimsically 'discipline' anyone who does not sing from the 'collective democratic hymnbook' of the west.
PS: The US dollar is going to reach the 80-100 year global dominance span in 2025-2045 and that is the time, usually, the reserve currency country contrives to decline and commits some bungle or the other like the Spanish set off hyperinflation and fiscal bankruptcies to lose their status followed by the dutch, french and english for similar reasons through 1925. Such geo-politico-economic power transfers have almost always been full of bloody conflicts as Europe's 'riotous' history can gleefully attest to.... this time with SSBNs sporting MIRVed MT size warheads, we might accidentally commit 'final solution of our race'
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