January 9, 2024

US Submarines in the Israel-Hamas War

What with Israel seemingly set on expanding the 2023-24 Israel-Hamas War by stepping up airstrikes on Lebanon and Syria, in what way are the 2 or 3 re-situated US fleets in the Med limiting the War?

Blinken's negotiations may only be holding back Israel from attacking Iran directly.

Some details of US naval, Marine and air forces in the Mediterranean are here. Also add 3 US SSNs with each likely escorting the 2 US Carrier and USS Bataan Groups. 

Also it is likely a US Ohio-class SSGN still remains in the Med, Red, Arabian Sea or Persian Gulf, ready to fire its Tomahawks, with Iran the most likely recipient. US SSGN USS Florida was sent to the Persian Gulf in November 2023, as a warning to Iran and as morale building protection for the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.   

January 8, 2024

Australia's Virginia vs Trump. All in the Timing.


A mugshot more benign than his official one, threatening Re-Election Retribution.
---

There is room for rejoicing that even if Trump won the November 5, 2024 Presidential Election Aussies can transcend what they fear may be a downturn in their AUKUS Virginia SSN fortunes. Trump, after all could only do damage until Saturday, January 20, 2029 when his term as President expires. This is even though he may seek to cancel the Virginia sale or at least using his  transactional approach to increase the price of Virginias sold to Australia. This might still leave a more alliance orientated follow-on president (serving 2029-2033) to undo the damage and escort Virginia ("RAN V-1") to her new mate, Australia, in 2032.

However, if Trump loses the 2024 Election, but undeterred, wins the 2028 Election then Australia’s relationship with aforesaid Virginia might be terminated even before her 2032 wedding night. A Trump in office through to January 20-21, 2033 could flick off poor Virginia under the dreaded 270 days rule.

It be true Trump in January 21, 2033 would be 86 years old, a mere Babe beside budding Biden. But Trump continues to surprise. Medical advances, and a great deal of well, "earned" money, may transform Trump into a Cyborg come senior Republican politician that Arnie could only dream of. Watch New Trump strut his stuff here and below:

January 7, 2024

No SSNs for Australia Without Support the US Pledge

"Good Putin" asked a good question on January 6, 2024 - to which I  respond. The way I see things: 

While Australia has only had diesel-electric submarines (SSKs) from about 1914 to the present day, these have had very limited discrete Intercontinental speed and Range. They need to indiscreetly show themselves (surface) during 1 to 4 refuels even to get to India or most of Southeast Asia and back. These realities have limited our SSK's roles to defensive or, with a stretch, intercepting shipping in the straits and narrows within the arc to our north. 

The speed and range of Virginias and then SSN-AUKUSs will give Australia capabilities of Intercontinental reconnaissance in peacetime and attack in wartime outside or mainly inside  the US alliance. 

Marles and Albanese make spurious claims about Australian freedom-of-choice sovereignty. However these new Australian SSN capabilities will be laser focused on supporting the US Alliance - specifically China containment, Taiwan defence, Middle Eastern stability, oil/gas shipping lane protection as well as anti-Russian Pacific Fleet roles. Given SSN scarcity in the US Navy, unless Australia promises this support the US will not supply Virginias to Australia.

January 4, 2024

Updated Oyashio-Soryu-Taigei Table

Submarine Matters TABLE

of Japan's Diesel-Electric Submarines (SSKs)

The Oyashios-Soryus-Taigeis as at January 4, 2024. 

SS
No.
Diesel Type
Motor
Build No
Name
Pennant
No.
MoF approved amount ¥
Billions FY
LABs +
AIP:
or LIBs
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Comm
i
ssion
ed
Built
By
5SS + 6SS
now training

Oyashios
8105 +
8106 Oya
shio
¥52.2B FY1993
2 x 12V25/25S 
diesels for all
Oyashio class
(each diesel
2,000kW)
LABs only
1994 & 1995
1996 &
1997
Built
at
KHI
7SS-15SS
8 active Oyashios 
10 subs
SMC-7?
8107
-8115
various
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 15SS Feb
2004
15SS
Nov
2006
15SS
Mar 2008
MHI
&
KHI
16SS
12
Active

Soryus/
Dragon
class  Mk I
8116
Sōryū
means
dragon
2,900 tonnes
surf-
aced
SS-501
¥60B FY2004 
Mk.1 LAB+AIP Soryus have 2 x Kawasaki 
+ a SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
Built
at
MHI

Home
Port
Kure
17SS
8117
Unryū
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
Kure
18SS
8118
Hakuryū
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
Kure
19SS
8119
Kenryū
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
Kure
20SS
8120
Zuiryū
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
Yokosuka
21SS LIBs Concept
Research
Project
No 21SS built. It was an 8 year research project on LIBs. 1st LIBs sub launched was 27SS in 2018.
   


22SS
8121
Kokuryū
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
Yokosuka
23SS
8122
Jinryu
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
7 Mar 2016
MHI
Kure
24SS
8123
Sekiryū
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
KHI
Kure
25SS
8124
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
22 Oct 2013
12 Oct   2016
MHI
Yokosuka
26SS
8125
SS-510
¥51.7B FY2014
last SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
2014
6 Nov 2017
KHI
Kure
27SS a Soryu
"Mk II" as it
has LIBs. 1st
Soryu
Mk II 
8126
Oryū
11th
Soryu
SS-511
¥64.4B FY2015 
with 2 12V25/25SB diesels (totaling 4,240kW) 
SMC-8B motor. [Wispy & Anon
agree it has 640 LIB/SLH modules], other improvements
LIBs only
(SLH type)
Nov
2015
4 Oct
2018
2020
MHI
Kure
28SS Soryu
Mk II, 12th &
final Soryu
8127
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
"2,950t" surfaced
2 12V25/25SB diesels
[
Wispy & Anon 
agree
 it has 640 LIB/SLH modules],
LIBs
Jan 2017
KHI
Yokosuka
29SS
1st
Taigei
Class

means
Whale
3,000 tonne
(surfaced)
8128
Taigei
"Big 
whale
"

Used as
a test
sub. Not
opera-
tional
SS-513
¥76B FY2017 (Heisei 29)
Higher ¥76B budget 
may be due to 1st of class many changes. 
2 x
4,240kW). [Wispy says 640 LIB/SLH modules, Anon says 720.]
SLH
LIBs
maybe
960

14 Oct
2020
 
9 Mar 2022
MHI

Home
Port
Yokosuka
30SS 
2nd Taigei Class 
8129
Hakugei
"White
whale
"
First
opera-
tional
Taigei

SS-514
¥71.5B FY2018 
(Heisei 30)
says 640 LIB/SLH modules, Anon says 720.]
SLH
LIBs
KHI

Home
Port
Kure
01SS 
3rd
Taigei Class
8130
Jingei
"Swift
whale
"
SLH
LIBs
maybe
960+
March
2024?
MHI
02SS 
4th
Taigei Class 
8131
Raigei
Thunder
whale
SS-516
Impro
ved SLH
LIBs
26 Mar
2021
Mar
2025?
KHI?
03SS
8132
SS-517
LIBs 
2022?
2024?
2026?
MHI
04SS
8133
SS-518
LIBs
2022?
2024?
2026?
MHI?
05SS 
8134
SS-519
LIBs
2023?
2025?
2027?
KHI?
06SS
8135
SS-520
FY2024
LIBs 
2024?
2026?
2028?
MHI?
07SS 
8136
SS-521
¥B? FY2025
LIBs
2025?
2027?
2029?
KHI?
08SS 
8137
SS-522
¥B? FY2026

LIBs
2026?
2028?2030?
MHI?
Key to Table: Table information provided by S = Anonymous to Submarine Matters. LABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP = air independent propulsion, LIBs = Lithium-ion Batteries. 
¥***B
 = Billion Yen. MHI = Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, KHI = Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries. 
---

January 3, 2024

Longterm SK Interest in Barracudas and K15s

In response to French Anonymous’ January 2, 2024 comments: 

Thank you for your K15 and K22 explanation - although I don't know enough about the inner workings a naval reactors eg. "fluxes".

A partly useful technical description is at https://media.nti.org/pdfs/Replacing_HEU_in_Naval_Reactors_Report_FINAL.pdf which includes many references to France and LEU naval reactors.

I have been looking back to Submarine Matters’ articles on long term South Korean (SK) interest in France's Barracuda SSN and the K15. The K15 is attractive as its LEU levels should reduce US opposition to SK acquiring them or building indigenous SK LEU submarine reactors. Submarine Matters’ articles include:

- https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2019/10/south-korea-looking-at-frances.html  

and

- https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/12/s-korean-built-nuke-sub-reactor-likely.html

+++++++++++++++++

Also of particular interest is the US Government's Radio Free Asia (RFA's) South Korean language article. When translated to English it states:

TITLE: "South Korean Navy “Efforts to secure nuclear submarines...useful in responding to North Korean SLBMs”
of October 10, 2019
at https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/nk_nuclear_talks/ne-hw-10102019083107.html

TEXT: "Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Shim Seung-seop is answering questions from lawmakers during the National Assembly National Defense Committee's audit of the Navy Headquarters held at Gyeryong University in South Chungcheong Province [South Korea or simply "Korea"] on [October 10, 2019].

Anchor: The South Korean [SK] Navy announced that it is working to secure nuclear-powered submarines as part of measures to strengthen its naval power, including in response to North Korea's SLBMs, or submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

Reporter Hong Seung-wook reports from Seoul.

On the 10th, the National Defense Committee audit of the National Assembly was held at Gyeryongdae in South Chungcheong Province, an integrated base for the three forces of the ROK Army, Navy, and Air Force.

The [SK] Navy announced in its work report today that it is working to secure nuclear-powered submarines to strengthen its naval power and is operating a task force in this regard, a temporary organization formed to resolve the task.

The [SK] Navy said, “We are operating our own task force from a long-term perspective,” and explained that securing nuclear-powered submarines is a matter to be decided based on national policy, and that we will pursue collaboration with the Ministry of National Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the future.

This can be interpreted as emphasizing the need to secure nuclear-powered submarines from a long-term perspective.

[SK] Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Shim Seung-seop said at the event,
“As nuclear-powered submarines are capable of long-term underwater operations, we believe they will be most useful in continuously tracking and destroying North Korea’s SLBMs, or submarines equipped with submarine-launched ballistic missiles.”

He also emphasized that nuclear-powered submarines are a useful deterrent force that can respond to neighbouring countries, including North Korea.

Previously, North Korea test-launched a new SLBM, the Pukguksong-3, into the East Sea on [October 2, 2019] three days before the US-North Korea denuclearization working-level talks.

South Korean Minister of National Defense Jeong Kyeong-doo (last 2nd): I believe this is an intention to increase negotiating power as much as possible (ahead of working-level negotiations on denuclearization between the United States and North Korea). In addition, on the 1st, South Korea's Armed Forces Day, it showed off its latest military capabilities, but since North Korea has been criticizing or making statements about its military reinforcements, we are considering whether North Korea launched a missile in the early morning of the 2nd while taking these factors into consideration.

Rep. Choi Jae-seong of the Democratic Party of Korea, Korea's ruling party, also raised the need to introduce nuclear-powered submarines through a questionnaire for the National Assembly audit at the Navy Headquarters.

Representative Choi said that according to the results of the Korean Navy's research service, nuclear-powered submarines have significantly better operational performance than diesel submarines currently in operation and were evaluated as the most useful force for operation on the Korean Peninsula.

At the same time, he explained that there are no restrictions under the NPT, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the IAEA, and the International Atomic Energy Agency's safeguards agreements.

Baek Seung-ju, a lawmaker from the Liberty Korea Party, South Korea's main opposition party, presented the contents of a naval research report on the need to consider introducing France's 5,300-ton 'Barracuda' nuclear submarine along with developing its own nuclear submarine in preparation for North Korea's SLBM provocation. It was also made public.

The report titled ‘Usefulness and possibility of building nuclear-powered submarines on the Korean Peninsula,’ written by ‘Independent Defense Network’, a South Korean security citizen group, at the request of the Navy, said, “It is an effective way to carry out a surprise strike against North Korea in case of emergency and to suppress North Korea’s submarine activities.” “There is a need to develop nuclear-powered submarines that can detect and attack missiles before they are launched.”

[the article then moves to SK surface ships – mainly destroyers]