June 8, 2023

TKMS One Step Forward In India's Slow P-75(I) Process

The current visit of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has seen an MOU signed by TKMS with Indian shipyard Mazagon Docks, announced June 7, 2023. This is aimed at securing local manufacture in Mumbai of six AIP equipped Type 214s or maybe variant 218s. 

This does not mean India’s selection of TKMS designed subs under Project-75(I) is a done deal. Another strong competitor is South Korea’s DSME which may be offering KSS-IIIs. KSS-IIIs feature at least 6 VLS and largely South Korean developed AIP. As KSS-IIIs are much larger designs than 214s/218s they are likely to cost India much more. But India may appreciate the value of KSS-III’s VLS as useful launch modes for K-15 nuclear missiles (or newer ballistic or hypersonic missiles) mainly against Pakistan.

There may be considerable delay until a 75(I) winner is announced. India does not have a reputation of being a rapid, decisive, selector of complex weapon systems. Also TKMS and DSME might continue to see onerous 75(I) contractual conditions covering such things as liability and tech transfer, as obstacles that may demand years of further bargaining.

June 7, 2023

Philippines: State of Submarine Forces in ASEAN 2023 – 7

The seventh ASEAN country, this time seeking a future submarine force, in my series, concerns the Philippines.

2 or 3 boats possible.

 

Probably the Chang-Bogo-class or Scorpene-class

 

Another country that has long aspired to have a submarine service is the Philippines. The much anticipated program aiming to procure submarines, began in 2014. This was part of an extensive fleet modernisation program. Submarine procurement plans were delayed in October 2022 in the face of limited funds and higher priorities.


The Philippine Navy has a huge task adequately protecting all of the sea space to the north, south, east and west of the many Philippine islands and also between those islands. Map courtesy Encyclopedia Brittanica.
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Nevertheless, the two submarine models most often mentioned for procurement are the French Naval Group designed Scorpene-class, and the South Korean DSME Improved Chang Bogo-class a variant of German TKMS designed Type 209. These were shortlisted by the Phillipines Navy as of 2019.  PHDefenseResource has a comprehensive page on Philippines' selection steps and thinking.

 

Naval Group is in broader ‘duel’ with DSME for Indonesian submarine contracts as well. This may lead to DSME offering the Philippines very favourable loan terms for their submarines. This is especially as South Korea and the Philippines are extending their military ties more broadly, with the Philippines already operating two South Korean built Jose Rizal-class light frigates from from HHI and 12 KAI FA-050PH aircraft.

 

For Naval Group’s part, it could conceivably now offer Scorpene variants built by India's Mazagon Docks (the Kalvari class) or by PT PAL in Indonesia (if Scorpenes win the Indonesian submarine tender). France is already training a small number of Philippine Navy sailors on submarine operations. 

As of May 2023 this submarine acquisition project is still active. As with most submarine projects the period between winning a tender and first commissioning a submarine may be up to 15 years.

Shawn Chung

June 7, 2023

June 6, 2023

Myanmar: State of Submarine Forces in ASEAN 2023 – 6

The sixth ASEAN country submarine force in my series concerns Myanmar.


2 boats in commission 

 

1x Kilo-class (Project 877EKM) ex-INS Sindhuvir 

Displacement 3,000 tonnes

Entered Service December 2020 

Myanmar's Kilo, UMS Minye Thainkhathu. Image courtesy Janes.
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1x Ming-class, Type 035B 

Displacement: 2,100 tonnes

Entered Service December 2021

Myanmar's Ming UMS Minye Kyaw Htin. Image Asia Pacific Defense Journal
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The Myanmar Navy faced a ‘happy’ situation when two strategically competing countries, India and China, transferred second-hand submarines to it.

Myanmar wedged between India and China. Map courtesy World Atlas.
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In March 2020, the Indian Navy transferred the 33 year old Sindhughosh-class Kilo Project 877EKM boat, INS Sindhuvir, to Myanmar, after it was refitted by Hindustan Shipyards, and this submarine was commissioned as the UMS Minye Theinkhathu. The Sindhuvir was ordered by India the IN in 1986 and commissioned in 1988.

 

In 2021 China transferred a 19 year or older ex-PLAN Type 035B Ming-class sub to Myanmar. The Ming-class were produced in China between 1969 and 2003, with four Type 035B variants built between 2000 and 2003). The sub entered Myanmar service in December 2021 as UMS Minye Kyaw Htin.

 

How extensive either submarine was refitted prior to delivery is unknown. Also unknown is the level of Myanmar crew training on these two very dissimilar subs. Extensive Indian and Chinese manning and maintenance is likely. The two subs may not constitute an efficient fighting force when fully Myanmar crewed.

 

There was some speculation in early 2022 that their transfer is actually a geopolitical and commercial competition between China and Russia (using India as a proxy). This may be no longer the case and the Myanmar Navy’s future modernisation will probably rely on the generosity of China. 

 

While the Indian Navy has long dominated the Bay of Bengal, Myanmar’s recent military construction on the Greater Coco Island, which included expanding a runway and building a radar station, has again alarmed Indian pundits. Some in India have a decades long belief that the island has been leased to the PLA to spy on India, including India’s Andaman Islands just to the south of Myanmar’s Coco Islands. Myanmar’s Coco Islands should not be confused with Australia’s Cocos (Keeling) Islands also located in the Indian Ocean. 


It is difficult to say whether Myanmar’s two old subs make much of an impact to the strategic situation.


Shawn Chung

June 6, 2023

Vietnam: State of Submarine Forces in ASEAN 2023 – 5

The fifth ASEAN country submarine force in my series concerns Vietnam.

6 boats incommission 

 

6 Improved Kilo Class (Project 636) submarines 

Ordered 2009

Delivered by 2017

Cost $2 Billion

Displacement 3,000 tonnes


Vietnamese Kilo HQ-186 Da Nang. Image courtesy vnexpress.net
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Vietnam does not detail news of its submarines for PR or taxpayer/defense budget justification purposes that may apply to democracies. So I don’t have much new post-2020 information on Vietnamese submarine force. Here are some articles with older information:

 

Vietnam’s (Russian Speaking) Kilo Submarine Service 

 

Vietnam’s Strategic RelationsCountering China 

 

https://e.vnexpress.net/interactive/2017/vietnams-new-found-submarine-power-and-where-it-came-from

 

https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/11/resist-and-reward-vietnams-naval-expansion/

 

https://medium.com/indo-pacific-geomill/vietnamese-navy-kilo-submarines-77ce5dc97b0b

 

https://thediplomat.com/tag/vietnamese-kilo-submarine/

 

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/idss/1824-vietnams-new-kilo-class-subma/

 

https://www.cescube.com/vp-vietnam-s-purchase-of-kilo-class-submarines-and-military-modernization

 

The Vietnamese People's Navy (VPN) is ASEAN’s largest submarine operator, having ordered 6 Improved Kilo Project 626 boats in December 2009, with all boats delivered and in commission by 2017. While there was plenty of coverage prior to the commissioning of these submarines, There are no international articles I can find about their current operational service (including in Vietnamese English news sites).



 

Vietnam has a long 3,260km coastline, bordering the Gulf of Tonkin, the South China Sea and the Gulf of Thailand (see map above). In general Vietnam faces the most PRC SCS greyzone disruption to its activities within its EEZ. Vietnam has also recently discovered the issue of undersea cable communication disruption, with all five data cables connecting Vietnam to the world ‘experiencing issues’. Undersea cables are often broken by fishing and anchoring activities, but tensions in the SCS are becoming more of an issue. 

 

Vietnam’s submarine force is ideally located to target China’s naval and civilian surface ships as well as Chinese submarines in the South China Sea. While the VPN’s Kilos will act as a strong deterrent against PLAN belligerence in the South China Sea, they face two main issues. The first is that China also has the same Kilo submarine models, and the PLAN knows the class well for anti-submarine warfare. The second is that Longpo Naval Base,  400km Southeast of Hanoi, on China’s Hainan Island, is the major fleet base complex of China's South Seas fleet, including its aircraft carrier Shandong, other major surface units, SSBNs, SSNs and SSKs.

 

Vietnam’s Kilos are apparently armed with anti-ship and also land attack versions of the Club S missiles. According to analysts in the region. The land attack missiles represent a significant shift beyond an anti ship, anti sub capability. Land attack is a deterrent complicating China's strategic calculations. These land attack missiles have an official range of 300 km (but probably more) representing a threat a potential threat to China's coastal cities. Vietnam may be the first Southeast Asian country to arm its submarine fleet with a land attack missile. 

Vietnam is now facing increased pressure from the USA to upgrade its relations. Or should Vietnam revert to Chinese suzerainty, forty years after Vietnam fought off the PLA in the bloody 1979 invasion?


Shawn Chung
June 6, 2023

June 5, 2023

Malaysia: State of Submarine Forces in ASEAN 2023 – 4

The fourth ASEAN country submarine force in my series concerns Malaysia.

2 in commission, 2 planned

 

2 Prime Minister-class (Scorpenes)

Ordered 2002

Delivered by 2009

Cost $1.24 Billion (including an Agosta-70 for initial training)



Scorpene KD Tunku Abdul Rahman image courtesy: www.malaysiandefence.com
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While Malaysia’s two Perdana Menteri (Prime Minister) class submarines appear frequently in the news, it has very little to do with their service history in the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN). Rather, news swirls around the corruption that occurred during the submarine bid, involving a former Malaysian Prime Minister (who was the Defense Minister who sealed the deal). He is now in jail for: rampant kleptocracy; some Thales/Naval Group connections; and, the death of a Mongolian interpreter/model/escort, who was shot twice and her remains destroyed by explosives.

 

The two submarines, named after the first and second Prime Ministers of Malaysia, Tunku Abdul Rahman and Tunku Abdul Razak, were commissioned into RMN service in 2010 and are based at Sepanggar naval base in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah. The Malaysian state of Sabah, located on the northern portion of Borneo island, has some amicable territorial disputes with Indonesia and the Philippines, as well as Malaysia’s South China sea possessions that are claimed by China with the Nine-Dash-Line policy.

 

Subject to many rumours and conjecture, an early manufacturing defect when Malaysia’s Scorpenes first entered service did not add to Malaysian public confidence. Now both submarines are operational and by 2019 had logged a total of 11,600 hours submerged. A recent eighteen-month refit included the installation of a new communication feature on the fin/sail, an Alesamar Buoyant Wire Antenna. 

 

Malaysia has many plans to modernize its armed forces under the 15-to-5 transformation program, in which the RMN would have four submarines by 2050. But Malaysia’s US$350 billion national debt, exceeding 80% of annual GDP, remains an obstacle.

 

In Feburary 2023, the Malaysian Defense Ministry unveiled a long-term plan to acquire two additional submarines from 2031 to 2040.

 

Malaysia actually purchase three submarines in 2002 – the 2 Scorpenes and the ex-French Navy Agosta-70 class Ouessant (S623) transferred to the RMN in 2005 to 2009 as a training vessel, operating in Brest, France, before being shipped over to Malaysia in 2011 to become a submarine museum.


Shawn Chung

June 5, 2023

June 1, 2023

Singapore: State of Submarine Forces in ASEAN 2023 – 3

The third ASEAN country submarine force in my series concerns Singapore.

4 in commission, 3 pre-commission, 1 in production


 

Challenger-class (ex-Sjoormen A11) 

5 boats: 2 active, 2 retired, 1 acquired for spares

Displacement 1,200 tonne

Acquired 1995

Delivered by 2002



Challenger-class image: courtesy Wikipedia/Erik Sevilla Estrada
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Archer-class (ex-Vastergotland A17) 
2 boats, in commission
Displacement 1,400 tonnes
Acquired 2005
Delivered by 2010


RSS Archer image: courtesy Seaforces.org/Kockums
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Invincible-class (Type 218SG) 
3 delivered, 1 in production

Displacement 2,200 tonnes

Ordered 2014

To be delivered from 2023-2026


Invincible-class image: courtesy @WarshipCam
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 The history of the Republic of Singapore Navy’s (RSN) submarine service is a clear demonstration of what Dr. Tim Huxley, in his book Defending the Lion City: The Armed Forces of Singapore (2000) referred to as defence capabilities creep - in that every generational step of a weapons system adds new capabilities to Singapore’s Armed Forces. 

In the case of Singapore’s submarine service, its humble beginnings started when Singapore purchased 30 year old Sjöormen class A11 submarines in 1995 from Kockums’ used submarine pier.
 

All five boats of the retired Sjöormen class were purchased, with the last boat, HSwMS Sjöhästen, cannibalised for spare parts for her four sisters. After modernisation and tropicalisation, the four boats of the Challenger-class entered RSN service by 2002. Two boats (RSS Challenger and RSS Centurion) were decommissioned in 2015. RSS Conqueror and RSS Chieftain remain in service today, though both boats are over 50 years old now. In the 20 years that they’ve served in the RSN, the Challengers set the foundations for Singapore’s submarine operations. By 2019 two RSN submarine officers were “Perisher” graduates.
 

Following on from the Challenger-class, in 2005 Singapore acquired the two remaining Västergötland class submarines, which were placed in Swedish naval reserve in the early 2000s, while their two sister boats were upgraded with AIP modules to become the Södermanland-class (HSwMS Södermanland is about to undergo a second life extension, and remain in service to 2028).

 

RSS Archer (ex-HSwMS Hälsingland, launched 1987) and RSS Swordsman (ex-HSwMS Västergötland, launched 1986) received an extensive refit similar to the Södermanlands, including AIP. The Archers also received tropicalization, air conditioning, a Singapore-developed flank sonar array, and were commissioned into the RSN in 2011 and 2013.

 

The Challengers are a traditional SSKs (though one of the first with a teardrop hull shape) with limited range and the need to frequently snort. In contrast the Archers were refitted with Kockums’ Stirling AIP hull sections, which greatly extended their fully submerged endurance. The Archers also have a pressurized diver’s lockout (part of the 12m AIP module insert) a first on an RSN submarine. It is likely that the Archers have double the endurance of the Challengers, and are frequent visitors to the Andamans for training and exercises with the Indian Navy.

 

In 2013-2014 Singapore held a submarine contest between TKMS and Naval Group. Also see Submarine Matters on this. TKMS was selected to supply two Type 218SG submarines for US$1.36 billion, with a follow-on order placed in 2017 for two additional boats. The first in class, RSS Invincible, was launched by TKMS in Kiel in February 2019, but has remained in the German city for shakedown trials and training, and is slated for delivery to Singapore in 2023. The second and third boats were launched together in December 2022. The second boat of the class, RSS Impeccable, is on its way to Singapore, and should make an appearance on Singapore’s National Day Parade on August 9, 2023.

 

The Invincible class will replace both the Challenger class and Archer class, so it is assumed the RSN will keep its submarine fleet at four boats. The Invincibles “can stay submerged 50% longer than the Archer-class”. They have advanced automation plus a high level of situational awareness, with expanded flank arrays and towed array sonar. The Invincibles also have a bigger payload capacity (including more torpedoes and other weapons) than the Archers, This may include a submarine launched version of the locally developed (with some Israeli assistance) Blue Spear anti ship cruise missile. 

 

Blue Spear, an anti-ship/land attack cruise missile, has been recently confirmed to replace Harpoon in the ASM role for Singapore’s six Formidable-class frigates. Blue Spears will also likely arm the RSN’s six upcoming, larger, Multi-Role Combat Vessels (MRCVs).

 

Singapore’s maritime security had a major revamp in the late 2010s, resulting in the division of the ‘fleet’ into two commands in 2020. Fleet Command contains four Flotillas with Frigates, Missile Corvettes, LSTs and Submarines. While Maritime Security Command (MARSOC)  contains Littoral Mission Vessels, Maritime Security & Response Vessels, Force Protection and UUVs.

 

What is clear is that this fleet division created two commands with separate primary tasks, with the Fleet tasked with power projection and ‘outside littoral boundary’ missions, like patrolling SLOCs. 

MARSOC is focused on the ‘near shore’ - Singapore’s territorial waters, undersea cables/pipes and near sea lanes such as the Malacca Straits, with unmanned vessels providing port security and infrastructure protection, including counter naval mine warfare and seabed inspection.


Singapore has a neutral defence policy. Singapore and China are establishing a secure defence telephone line after signing an MOU on June 1, 2023.  

Shawn Chung
June 1, 2023