The current visit of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has seen an MOU signed by TKMS with Indian shipyard Mazagon Docks, announced June 7, 2023. This is aimed at securing local manufacture in Mumbai of six AIP equipped Type 214s or maybe variant 218s.
This
does not mean India’s selection of TKMS designed subs under Project-75(I) is a
done deal. Another strong competitor is South Korea’s DSME which may be offering KSS-IIIs. KSS-IIIs feature at least 6 VLS and largely
South Korean developed AIP. As KSS-IIIs are much larger designs than 214s/218s
they are likely to cost India much more. But India may appreciate the value of
KSS-III’s VLS as useful launch modes for K-15 nuclear missiles (or
newer ballistic or hypersonic missiles) mainly against Pakistan.
There may be considerable
delay until a 75(I) winner is announced. India does not have a reputation of
being a rapid, decisive, selector of complex weapon systems. Also TKMS and DSME
might continue to see onerous 75(I) contractual conditions covering
such things as liability and tech transfer, as obstacles that may demand years
of further bargaining.
13 comments:
Given the requirements in the neighbourhood, ideally 6 more scorpenes and 6 type-214 successors to existing 209s are likely needed along with a partner to jointly develop armed UUVs and specialised midget subs. 18-20 serving SSKs, 5-6 SSNs, 5-6 specialised midgets, few dozen UUVs are needed.
I am sure TKMS similar to NG / DCNS is not discussing any TOT involving sharing of ‘family recipe’ SSK manufacturing secrets.
That would have come from India just like the domestic SSBN.
PS: personally I would take the TKMS inspired Korean KSS-3 and
Order a dozen to keep domestic
Lines busy through 2035-36.
Interesting news...
We know that TKMS also put in a bid with Indonesia for their latest submarine project, so this will signal a shift in focus from TKMS into the South Asian market, where they will compete head-on with Naval Group. (https://youtu.be/-o8wjVB0Ddo?t=52)
Is NG still in the running for this contract? Did they recycle the Attack-Class plans?
Oh the Rolldock Storm (carrying RSS Impeccable to Singapore) was last tracked to have pass Morocco, taking the Cape route to Singapore. https://twitter.com/SenangDiri/status/1666416773292527617?s=20
Hi Ghalib Kabir
1. Methinks India should finish the last of the 6 Kalvari-class Scorpenes and build 18 KSS-3s because the latter are very multirole and their AIP + LIBs allow for more than a month deep submergence. This is rather than buying dissimilar SSKs in penny packets of 6. Concurrently it will likely take 15 years for the first of India's necessary SSNs to be commissioned.
2. Indeed India has a long submarine/UUV shopping and building list to meet the challenge of China and Pakistan.
This list has remained long and pressing for many years. Here is a SubMatts article of from August 2014
"India's Plans for 21 More Subs including SSNs" at
https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2014/07/indias-amazing-future-24-submarines.html
India's list is so long the challenge seems undoable. China, just quietly goes about building rather than listing subs challenges.
Regards Pete
Hi Shawn
I don't know if India would take advantage of any Indonesian choice of TKMS or Naval Group (NG) subs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project-75_(India)_submarine_acquisition_project#Elimination_of_contenders indicates
"In April 2022, Naval Group withdrew from the [P-75(I)] tender, citing an inability to comply with its requirements of providing a [2nd or 3rd generation] sea-proven AIP system."
NG did offer a conventional Barracuda (CB) to India - probably smaller than the Attack-class. But high cost of CBs and a lack of a 2nd or 3rd generation sea-proven AIP system likely contributed to NG withdrawing a CB offer.
Thanks for the Rolldock update. I'll publish shortly.
Regards Pete
If you want something high quality and fast, join the programme Singapore and get the chance to produce Tipe 218 IN/P75I, even with VLS. It's going to cost money. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported that the final value of the contract would be around 7 billion euros. 5.2 billion is fantasy (just like Type 212CD ог Dolphin-3 "Dakar"- "made in India"...) Note: Israel is collaborating with Singapore to equip submarines... Regards.
India is also doing, resource limitations, access to technology and of course far more cumbersome procedures compared to China are limiting factors.
We need to remember that between 2005 and 2023 india has built/building 6 scorpenes, 4 SSBNs, gained valuable SSN experience through the akula which makes it 11 subs over 18 years. May be not as good as japan’s build rate or china’s rapid build out…. Yet a not so bad track record…
18 KSS-3 is a good idea, provided the level of ToT builds on what HDW and DCNS shared with India in the past. I think that is the hard bit showing up as difficult negotiations in terms of contractual clauses….
Hi GhalibKabir at 6/11/2023 7:45 PM
Its true what you say about India’s steady progress in its submarine building problem including SSBNs, SSKs and manning and technical examination of the Russian Akula SSN, INS Chakra “2”.
My views get distorted by slower progress on Project-75(I) and my unfair comparison with China which has a nominal GDP about five times that of India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
One benefit of building 18 KSS-3s or alternatively 18 large 2,500 tonne Type 212CDs is that South Korea or Germany would be likely to transfer more technology than just for an order of 6.
India could become like Japan turning out one SSK per year in a continuous build program. These SSKs could become gradually modified with each successive sub for India’s needs. Just like Japan modified US supplied subs into a Japan specialised design. India has the design and production industrial base to do that.
Cheers Pete
One SSK per year, one SSN every 3 years and one SSBN every 5-6 years would be a nice pace to keep if the shipyards can be given dedicated tasks
e.g SBC Vizag builds SSBNs and SSNs, SBC Vadodara supports SSN builds while Mazgaon focuses on SSKs (Type 212 derivatives or Scorpenes) with support from HSL to maintain the SSKs...but quality of manpower and numbers are a big problem. In the past Kilo subs refits took for ever as HSL could only allot 1/4th of the staff that Sevmash or other Russian cos usually allot (50-60 staff at HSL vs 200-300 at Russian refit facilities)...
UUVs could come from private shipyards such as Kattupalli or other government yards such as GRSE or Goa. We need this if a 3 fleet 3 carrier and 6-10 SSN Navy is to become a reality.
Thanks Ghalib Kabir at 6/15/2023 5:21 PM
Your plan looks sensible. As you point out it may be viable if the "quality of manpower and numbers" are available. High quality manpower, in sufficient numbers are submarine building problems are indeed impacting all sub building countries for all classes of sub.
Continuous build of an SSK per year should permit gradual improvements if India sticks to one SSK class - like KSS-3s.
My grand plan, for which I would love to collect a 5% of Project Commission, :) would be:
Arihant SSBN "S4" in 2024 and "S4*" in 2025 may be doable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arihant-class_submarine#Ships_in_class
Then the full sized SSBNs of the "S5" class in 2030, Improved S5 in 2034 and one again in 2038. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S5-class_submarine
I understand the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_75_Alpha SSNs have been whittled down to just a 3 boat class, pointing to:
- 3 Alpha SSNs in the 2030s, and
- maybe 3 Improved Alphas in the 2040s.
India may need to rely on "bastion protection" of its SSBNs due to an SSN shortage for at least 15 years. The 6-10 SSNs you mention may be a minimum to handle improved Chinese Type 095 then 097 SSNs and 096 then 098 SSBNs through to the 2040s. 3 Indian SSNs to keep Pakistan honest might also be needed.
Cheers Pete
For the purposes of financial netting Israel will begin the production of submarine structures (composites) being built in Germany.(Type Dakar,212CD,218SG etc.) A 10-years contract between Elbit Systems/Cyclone and Thyssenkrupp/TKMS. Cyclone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VxiVhffFO4&t=43s Regards...
Thanks Oleg - I'd say the composites in question are mainly for the, often streamlined, portions (like coverings for flank and bow sonars) of the mixed hulls of TKMS subs.
I think Israel's substantial military-industrial complex is of such high quality that Elbit, etc. probably win TKMS contracts on merit rather than mere "make work" local content exchanges applying to most customers of submarine building countries.
Regards Pete
Hi Oleg at 8/01/2023 11:19 PM
Thanks for https://www.camspotting.de/hafenhaus/film/2023/2023_08_01_hafenhaus.mp4 showing INS Drakon (aka Dragon) stationary sitting on the wharf probably at TKMS shipyard Kiel, Germany.
My initial assumption was that Drakon had just been delivered to Israel.
But given the string "https://www.camspotting.de/hafenhaus/film/2023/2023_08_01_hafenhaus.mp4"
this is a German website along the lines "camera spotting harbor house/at the shipyard". I also doubt Israeli authorities would permit such a fixed camera setup at Israel's Haifa Naval Base taking pictures of nuclear armed Dolphin subs. All the fog/rain also looks more like Germany than in Israel.
At first I was distracted by the comings and goings of tugboats and ships.
When I expand the mp4 to full screen, from 6 seconds into the mp4, I can see Drakon sitting just below the base of the higher part-orange upright crane.
Drakon indeed has an unusually long sail/fin. Whether part of the sail is to accomodate VLS I don't know.
Regards Pete
Thanks Oleg7700 at 8/03/2023 5:39 AM and other dates
I've turned your very useful links and comments into article:
"First Photos of Israel's INS Drakon aka Dragon Dolphin 2"
of August 3, 2023
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/08/first-photos-of-israels-ins-drakon-aka.html
Regards Pete
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