The chances that the missing Titan deep sea submersible will resurface successfully are probably only 30%. This is partly based on educated guesswork concerning the tragic "lost with all hands" fates of missing, then found on the seafloor, submarines ARA San Juan in 2017 and KRI Nanggala in 2021.
The specs of Titan and details of its disappearance here.
Reasons for Titan’s disappearance in
what should have been an 8 hour dive over the long sunken RMS Titanic might be:
- Any deformation of Titan's pressure hull, which must be perfectly spherical, would cause a complete, fatal, implosion in the deepest stages of Titan's dive.
- Titan snagging on part of Titanic if
it got too close to Titanic (hopefully that might be a temporary snag).
- Loss of neutral buoyancy causing a
downward collision with Titanic, or with the seafloor rupturing Titan's pressure
hull.
- Titan sinking way below its 4,000
meter operating depth causing its pressure hull to rupture.
- A sudden downward current of cold
water could make Titan sink too deeply.
- Rapid loss of oxygen for the crew causing asphyxiation or gradual loss of oxygen content causing crew to fall asleep.
Failure of the electrical system or
batteries (especially if they were Lithium-ion Batterie) causing fire or a release of poison gas asphyxiating crew.
Other systems going wrong.
Titan ideally should have:
- a working
audible “pinger” allowing passive sonars (on vessels (including the “Mother” surface
ship) on sonobuoys or on fixed undersea sensors) to hear Titan. Apparently Titan
failed to "ping" at the usual times, thereby raising the alarm that it was missing.
- two or
three redundant low frequency communications devices.
- an emergency
buoy released with a 5,000 meter long thin communications line to reach the surface and then release
distress radio GPS location signals and/or flares and/or permitting two way
communications.
Hopefully my 70% “lost with all hands” prediction is wrong and Titan’s 30% chance of successfully resurfacing in the next 40 hours (while air and power hold out) comes true.
6 comments:
From BBC’s coverage, ship to submersible communication has always been prone to failures, and it has seven safety devices.. that obviously failed to work.
Eternal Father strong to save
Whose arm has bound the restless wave
Who bids the mighty ocean deep
It's own appointed limits keep
O hear us when we cry to Thee
For those in Peril on the sea
No signal, is a bad sign.
The Titan submarine is not certified by any maritime authority.
Yes, the Titan is built as simple as possible.
It is built with components, you will find at your Home Pro, Home Depot do it yourself shop. The Titan is controlled with a game computer controller / switch, standard personal computer and WiFi.
BUT ... a 3.800 meter / 12,460 ft deep sea is not the same theater as a yellow submarine full of tourists at 12 meter deep in a reef safari. Twenty years ago a yacht owner complained to me, that maritime qualified computers for navigation and route plotting are several times more expensive than a standard PC. So he applied a standard Compaq PC on board of his sea-going sail yacht. Within a short time that PC crashed because of moisture and salt built up.
No signal.
No electricity in your submarine ? Means no propulsion, no communication, no navigation. And your crew has te respond quickly in the darkness.
Do the Titan has back-up systems for electricity ?
Fire.
A desktop PC will do fine in your office. But what, if fire breaks out in such a confined space as a submarine ? Are there lithium-ion batteries taken on board ?
Smoke is the biggest killer during fire.
Training.
In military submarines, the crew is thoroughly trained to stay calm and act swiftly.
Former sailors who experienced accidents in submarines. Say that the psychological impact is the same as a near collision between you as a pedestrian and a car.
How are the inhabitants of Titan doing in case of emergency ? A pre dive safety briefing of say 20 - 30 minutes is not going to help much.
Breathe in, breathe out.
In submarines, the levels of CO2 (carbon dioxide) are closely monitored. And atmosphere processing machines filter out CO2 gas. If this air filtering does not work properly. Than there is a risk of a build up of CO / carbon monoxide gas.
You cannot see or smell CO gas, but it will react with oxygen. If you have for example 96 hours of oxygen onboard. With CO gas in your hull, this O2 stock will be depleted very quickly. The crew will fall in sleep permanently.
The golden 24 hours.
According to the US Coast Guard, experience shows that time is critical during emergencies. After 24 hours, the survivability drops below 10 %.
Make some noise.
Sono buoys pick up noise from a distance of 25 kilometers / 15.54 statute miles.
If the Titan inhabitants are still alive at 3.800 meters deep, they can still make enough noise by knocking at the hull. Which can be picked up by sono buoys or hydrophones.
Locum,
Thanks Shawn at 6/21/2023 1:44 AM
I hope one of Titan's comms links eventually work.
Thanks for your sentiments in "Eternal Father strong to save". By coincidence that has been the "Navy Hymn for Submarines" that has been towards the top right sidebar of Submarine Matters for the last 6 years or so. Here it is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKMEl4HU0fA
Regards Pete
Thanks Locum at 6/21/2023 10:41 PM
All youe points are relevant and interesting.
Regards Pete
Pray for safety.
Frankly, Titan is not a submarine, but a coffin.
Unfortunately you were absolutely right Pete in your predictions of how Titan would fail: implosion of the pressure hull near the Titanic. 30% chance of survival was also spot on. A sad day for the submarine community and for the families of Titan's crew.
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